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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 22nd Jun 2022, 11:25
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Ukrainians view of the Bushmasters they had delivered from Australia

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/...21-p5av96.html

re GPS etc, hand held GPS on what looks like a mobile phone!



Last edited by NutLoose; 22nd Jun 2022 at 11:43.
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 11:38
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 12:23
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Drone strike with at least 1 drone seen on film, russian media are reporting 2 drones

Unknown what type of drone, its still being debated atm


rough translation

Yes, it's a drone. Ha-ha.
Oh, man, where? Is it Ukrainian?
Of course not.
I don't see it. I don't see it.
Is he diving?
****.
Oh, ****.
Holy ****! Holy ****!
It's coming. ******* hell.
From the Ukraine side?
Yeah, it came from that side.
Radio voice: Are we stopping the
work or not?
Voice on the radio: Everybody down on the ground, the plant's
blowing up here.
The factory's been blown up. It's about to go on fire, we've got to get
out of here.
The refinery is on fire, get the **** out of here. ****.
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 12:30
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Posted in the Darwin thread but rather well done, judging by the "departure" rate they're not jobs with prospects

https://topcargo200.com/
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 13:02
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Slovakia to immediately transfer 12 Mig 29's to Ukraine after the Czech's and Poland agree to cover their air defense until the F 16 arrivals???


https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/3...rs-help-report

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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 13:34
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Slovakia to immediately transfer 12 Mig 29's to Ukraine after the Czech's and Poland agree to cover their air defense until the F 16 arrivals?
https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/sta...32275426451457

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/3...rs-help-report
That took a while to come to fruition, but it seems to be a practical approach.
Note: NATO decisions take time. Nothing fast about any of it.
(This transfer from Slovakia was proposed back in March)
The Slovak Air Force possesses up to 11 Soviet-era MiG-29AS and UBS fighter jets, most of them inherited from the Czechoslovak Air Force. According to Oryx data, only six of the aircraft, including one MiG-29UBS trainer, are believed to be operational.
In 2018 Slovakia signed a contract for 14 Lockheed Martin F-16C/D fighter jets in the latest Block 70/72 configuration. The deliveries are expected to start in 2023.
In addition, the country’s air force is running an advanced jet trainer tender with the aim of procuring several trainers that could double as light combat aircraft.
I run that through my filter and see five flying birds and five "parts birds," and one trainer.
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 13:54
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A reply on the top link was interesting too, though that will take time to train the F16 crews

probably Romania will follow with 25 Migs after the 35 F16 arrive from Norway
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 15:18
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Following the discussion on different countries going for drones and ATGM's, reuters just published an interview with the commander of Finnish defence forces general Timo Kivinen. Having already one of the biggest artilleries in Europe with varying range from mortars to cruise missiles, tens of thousands of ATGM's plus the coming F35's and four new war ships on order amongst lots of other gear, there's an approved purchase budget for 2000 drones.
From other sources the 200+ Leopards are getting updates as well, and the eastern border is being reinforced.

So yes, drones and ATGM's are on everyones shopping list including Finland, but all the branches and their co-operation are still required to make it matter. Including the roughly 1 million men and women trained, motivated and available in case the Russkies get more stupid ideas.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ef-2022-06-22/
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 15:37
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Once they start to be not so incredibly stupid they'll do much better, however the structural issues with all of their MBT's sending turrets to orbit if given a bad eye does make the life of crews very worrysome. However they've found a workaround and placing only 10 rounds per cartouch instead of full 40 hence avoiding the chain reaction that blows the turrets away (but going into a fight with only 1/4 of ammo gives you a whole different set of problems).
.
Beamr, you need to explain to me why the crew are going to be much better off if only 10 shells ignite - rather than 40 - inside the turret. The issue of the turret blowing off is completely incidental ( apart from video sequences ) isn't it ?

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 22nd Jun 2022 at 16:57.
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 15:44
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
A reply on the top link was interesting too, though that will take time to train the F16 crews
I am pretty sure that they can send some of their pilots to somewhere like Luke AFB to get the training. (I think Luke is where NATO/Allied pilots can get Viper training, I'll need to check on that; there have been a variety of allied pilots trained there in the past). (Or maybe they'd be able to get training where the Dutch/Belgian F-16 training takes place, I think someone called Aerogroup does that?)

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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 15:57
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Beamr, you need to explain to me why the crew are going to be much better off if only 10 shells ignite rather than 40 inside the turret. The issue of the turret blowing off is completely incidental ( apart from video sequences ) isn't it ?
All i can think is they have analysed knocked out armour ( they have a lot to chose from ) and worked out the locality that most penetration of the turret occurs when hit. Then ensured that those empty spaces in the Autoloader ammo ring at the bottom of the tank are left vacant. You have also reduced the chance of and explosion by 75% having removed that amount of ammo.
I would imagine most top hitting ATGM's will have a narrow zone of penetration.
Another problem I can see with up armouring the top of the turrets has to be the crew hatches, it's ok adding inches of armour to the top of your tank, but the crew still need to be able to open and lift the hatches which are going to be a weak point?.
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 16:12
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Sure, the ammunition are sitting next to each other in a carousel. If the carousel is full, shrapnels from penetrating ammunition will hit a live one inevitably and they all go off. By leaving space between them you'll decrease the chance of getting a hit on them. Most of the ammunition are better covered than others in the carusel as there is much more metal on top (eg where the load mechanism is).

You are right though that hitting a live 125mm round ruins your day, but the turret doesn't turn into a space craft so there is some chance of survival against zero chance with turret removal.

I have pictures of a T72 turret that was shot at with 125mm 3BM15 armor piercing shots. It didn't penetrate the cast turret with a direct hit, but penetrated via the gun cover and via the turret ring. Entering the turret it basically broke a lot of sights and other equipment and hitting the back of the turret. The generated shrapnels in the rear of the turret in both instances of armor penetration was calculated to cause full cartouch to explode in chain and in practice blowing the turret off (what we've seen in videos recently, very spectacular).

By decreasing the amount of rounds in the cartouch you'll decrease the amount of exposed ammunition. Or that is the theory at least which was presented by a Russian tank crew member in a Russian interview a few weeks back. I've no knowledge how it has worked out for them as the turret is a death trap anyway once gets a direct hit from a javelin. But at least there will be something left to send to the mourning family.

Edit: nutloose is pretty much spot on with his faster response.
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 16:42
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Beamr, you need to explain to me why the crew are going to be much better off if only 10 shells ignite rather than 40 inside the turret. The issue of the turret blowing off is completely incidental ( apart from video sequences ) isn't it ?
I wondered about this too. Even one tank round cooking off within such a confined space will be catastrophic for the crew, surely?

This does sound like a sop to make the crew feel better about getting inside those death-traps, just like the much ridiculed 'cope cages'. It may also be a sign they are running low on tank rounds and are rationing their supply, using this as a BS excuse...
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 17:08
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Or that is the theory at least which was presented by a Russian tank crew member in a Russian interview a few weeks back. I've no knowledge how it has worked out for them as the turret is a death trap anyway once gets a direct hit from a javelin. But at least there will be something left to send to the mourning family.
.
Well, I have to say that 75% less ammunition and significantly increased loading times don't sound like a winning formula in a tank-to-tank encounter. I have no idea how much metal is flying around inside, but had the impression that either the spalling effect , or the molten "penetrator " of a good hit pretty much guaranteed a dead crew, even without the ammunition load igniting.

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 22nd Jun 2022 at 17:22.
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 17:26
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Well, I have to say that 75% less ammunition and significantly increased loading times don't sound like a successful formula in a tank-to-tank encounter. I have no0 idea how much metal is flying around inside, but had the impression that either the spalling effect , or the molten "penetrator " pretty much guaranteed a dead crew, even without the ammunition load igniting.
I agree that once anything comes through the armor and explodes it's pretty much game over for the poor sods, and as I wrote before going to a fight with only 1/4 the capacity opens a whole different box of issues from fighting capability to need for resupply burning fuel and stressing logistics. I want to stress a few things
- the test turret mentioned earlier was a Finnish military test. Hence the rather accurate info on what happens with full cartouch. The Finns had T72's in inventory therefore the tests are pretty solid (nice to know the weakness of your own/adversarys kit). The turret is out on display nowadays.
- the info of Russians loading only 10 rounds at a time comes from a Russian T80 tank crew interview in Russian media. I can't therefore quarantee it but seems plausible. In any case theory is there.
- as also previously mentioned the chance of surviving a direct penetrating hit is very slim even without the cartouch going off. But better than zero as is the case with turret blowing off. Maybe these guys are hanging on to anything to increase their chances as so far the chamces have been nil.
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 18:32
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
I wondered about this too. Even one tank round cooking off within such a confined space will be catastrophic for the crew, surely?

This does sound like a sop to make the crew feel better about getting inside those death-traps, just like the much ridiculed 'cope cages'. It may also be a sign they are running low on tank rounds and are rationing their supply, using this as a BS excuse...
Cooking off ammo is the least of the turret crews worries, the molten metal penetrating the turret has to go through the crew before it reaches the carousel, however the driver might get away with it.
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 19:09
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Cooking off ammo is the least of the turret crews worries, the molten metal penetrating the turret has to go through the crew before it reaches the carousel, however the driver might get away with it.
Could make this a pub-quiz question.

"Eight of ten tank crews say that their greatest worry is :

a) .....................................
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 20:09
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Could make this a pub-quiz question.

"Eight of ten tank crews say that their greatest worry is :

a) .....................................
Someone in a ditch, UK supplied NLAW in hand saying "God save the Queen" before squeezing the trigger.
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Old 22nd Jun 2022, 22:19
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I'm surprised that the discussion re the brewing up of T72s is being related to rounds carried.
This is surely not the case, the spectacular roman candle effect is a result of cordite propellant charges burning rather that any explosive reaction of pretty inert projectiles - which it little resembles?
Any molten spray whanging around inside a tank is surely going to find a cordite bag no matter what, and then it's just fireworks time, surely? Time enough for shells to cook of in the fire minutes later.
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Old 23rd Jun 2022, 00:42
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
I'm surprised that the discussion re the brewing up of T72s is being related to rounds carried.
This is surely not the case, the spectacular roman candle effect is a result of cordite propellant charges burning rather that any explosive reaction of pretty inert projectiles - which it little resembles?
Any molten spray whanging around inside a tank is surely going to find a cordite bag no matter what, and then it's just fireworks time, surely? Time enough for shells to cook of in the fire minutes later.
More broadly, given the loss rates, how do they still get people to operate these things?
Hopefully the priority for an unmanned armored vehicle has gone way up with this conflict.
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