Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[NutLoose]

It appears that the Ukrainians took out some oil rigs / gas rigs in Ukrainian waters at the same time as plastering snake island.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...11b8da8d8bbd47

https://twitter.com/hashtag/SnakeIsl...g_click&f=live

Twitter

In 2014, Russia seized the drilling platforms in the Black Sea 100 km off Odesa and 150 km off Crimea. Later they used them not only for gas extraction but also for monitoring the surface using the means of electronic intelligence, according to Dumskaya

[ORAC]

Good threads on Russian military kleptocracy…

Twitter threads with other links and comments and thread reader summaries.

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/stat...9ivEGLTA_Q1mrg

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/stat...9ivEGLTA_Q1mrg

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/stat...9ivEGLTA_Q1mrg

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...220632067.html

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...777025024.html

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...267057153.html

[NutLoose]

The problem I see with Macron is he has just had his power base ripped out from under him, how that will effect his support and the ability to supply weaponary to Ukraine is yet to be seen, especially with Melenchon with his communist leanings and Le Pen’s love affair with Russia, though I think if she sided with Russia, her chances of ever holding power may be be diminished in the voters eyes.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Germany publishes list of material already delivered to Ukraine

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._57275780.html

Way too many lines to translate entirely, but here are a few of the biggest/most important items.

7 Howitzer 2000 with spare parts and training ( joint with NL )
30 Gepard AA tanks with 60 000 rounds
3 MARS rocket launchers with rockets
50 M113 APC (from Denmark with conversion financed by Germany )
100 000 hand grenades
22 000 000 rounds ammunition for personal weapons
14 900 anti-tank mines
3 000 Panzerfaust 3 individual anti-tank rockets/grenades
5 000 Manpads ( unidentified )
2 700 Strela
10 000 artillery shells

[Usertim]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

Germany publishes list of material already delivered to Ukraine

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._57275780.html

Way too many lines to translate entirely, but here are a few of the biggest/most important items.

7 Howitzer 2000 with spare parts and training ( joint with NL )
30 Gepard AA tanks with 60 000 rounds
3 MARS rocket launchers with rockets
50 M113 APC (from Denmark with conversion financed by Germany )
100 000 hand grenades
22 000 000 rounds ammunition for personal weapons
14 900 anti-tank mines
3 000 Panzerfaust 3 individual anti-tank rockets/grenades
5 000 Manpads ( unidentified )
2 700 Strela
10 000 artillery shells

I am not so sure about that. I believe all the infantry gear , that was at the beginning after Germany was criticised for only sending helmets. If the Pz2000 were in theater we would have heard about it , just as the French Caesars are creating a lot of video contents. Same with the gepards, not that that is relevant - unless there is a steady ammo (60k rounds is 3 ammo loadouts each) supply they are not worth the diesel to move them where most needed. Didn't hear anything about Germany financing M113s from denmark.

Did see this though indicating that germany also has problems supplying even 80 Toyota pick-up trucks.

Twitter

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by Usertim

I am not so sure about that. I believe all the infantry gear , that was at the beginning after Germany was criticised for only sending helmets. If the Pz2000 were in theater we would have heard about it , just as the French Caesars are creating a lot of video contents. Same with the gepards, not that that is relevant - unless there is a steady ammo (60k rounds is 3 ammo loadouts each) supply they are not worth the diesel to move them where most needed. Didn't hear anything about Germany financing M113s from denmark.

Did see this though indicating that germany also has problems supplying even 80 Toyota pick-up trucks.
https://twitter.com/MJ_Cruickshank/s...244480/photo/1

Well, given all the criticism there has been of Germany, the politicians would have to be really stupid to lie about things that many people could film and upload. Note also that the Pz 2000 are a joint project with NL, and any lies risk diplomatic embarrassment. Plenty of comment in April about Denmarks intention to send these M113

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defe...20to%20Ukraine.

" Same with the gepards, not that that is relevant - unless there is a steady ammo (60k rounds is 3 ammo loadouts each)"

That comment was made at the time this was first mooted, so nothing has changed.

[NutLoose]

You would think some of these countries would be falling over themselves to send equipment, after all the NLAW must have suddenly popped up on quite a few countries future acquisition radars having been seen to take on Russias not so finest and come out on top.
It's all monies into the UK and Swedens coffers as a result of a live field test so to speak. Plus as a bonus the said companies get to enhance their products as they learn from real combat usage.. Its a win win for everyone...... err... well everyone bar one.

[Ripton]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

Germany publishes list of material already delivered to Ukraine

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._57275780.html

Way too many lines to translate entirely, but here are a few of the biggest/most important items.

7 Howitzer 2000 with spare parts and training ( joint with NL )
30 Gepard AA tanks with 60 000 rounds
3 MARS rocket launchers with rockets
50 M113 APC (from Denmark with conversion financed by Germany )
100 000 hand grenades
22 000 000 rounds ammunition for personal weapons
14 900 anti-tank mines
3 000 Panzerfaust 3 individual anti-tank rockets/grenades
5 000 Manpads ( unidentified )
2 700 Strela
10 000 artillery shells

Being generous I'd say delivered figure is approx. a quarter of a billion Euros. How does that fit with the list above?

[Beamr]

This is interesting, US provides investigative resources to Ukraine while the war is still ongoing. It might be a bit different from investigating war crimes of WW2.

Twitter

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by Usertim

I am not so sure about that. I believe all the infantry gear , that was at the beginning after Germany was criticised for only sending helmets. If the Pz2000 were in theater we would have heard about it ,
https://twitter.com/MJ_Cruickshank/s...244480/photo/1

Ukrainian Defence Ministry confirmed arrival this afternoon - June 21 ( per focus magazine )

[Usertim]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

Ukrainian Defence Ministry confirmed arrival this afternoon - June 21 ( per focus magazine )

Yup , that I give. I saw a flood of such tweets soon after your post - so finally Pz2000 they are there ! hallelujah!

[NutLoose]

Was no point sending them until you have the trained crews to operate them, having them sitting in country unused is just painting a big target on them, there have been plenty of posts re people informing Russia as to movements, and they are not exactly stealthy looking.

[T28B]

NotAsAMod
An interesting observation from the article about 'the viewpoint of an average Russian"

We must show that the power of agreement is stronger than the power of weapon, whatever it takes.

The "we," as written in the article, is The West.
Aviation content:

The Biden administration plans to sell MQ-1C Gray Eagle attack drones to Ukraine, anonymous sources disclosed to Reuters at the start of June, but the deal still needs to be approved by Congress. The Gray Eagles would be a potent addition to Ukraine's arsenal, but a political tug-of-war is taking place over whether or not the drones will go.

Interested speculation follows: the US Marines recently declared IOC of the missile that replaces Hellfire (in March) called JAGM.
It is deploying this year, apparently, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit.
Gray Eagle can launch a Hellfire, but might there be a "field test" of JAGM hung on a Gray Eagle?
That is the kind of information that is usually classified, but the prospect is (to me) intriguing.
A few details at the link.

IOC was achieved with missiles, training, and support equipment delivered to Marine Light Attack Helicopter Squadron 267 to support an upcoming deployment with the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit.

It is not likely to be used in Ukraine any time soon. Hellfire is the more likely resident of the (up to 4) weapons stations on MQ-1C if they are shipped.

[NutLoose]

Signs of damage from the reported Snake island strike.

Twitter

[ORAC]

Russian press on airline & car industries.

https://twitter.com/bbcstever/status...n2qNUdV4eaCb3w

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by T28B

Hellfire is the more likely resident of the (up to 4) weapons stations on MQ-1C if they are shipped.

Gray Eagle might get a warm reception.
From the Russians.

But there is a split between front-line airmen and Ukraine’s chief of staff on the drones, according to multiple Ukrainian military officials, who recently spoke to Foreign Policy and other media outlets on condition of anonymity, identified only by their military call signs.

“We are not advocating for the Gray Eagles,” said one pilot, referred to as Moonfish. The Ukrainian military’s general staff, he said, are advocating for the drones. “There’s no good Air Force mind next to our chief of staff or commander who would say, speak up and say, hey, that’s B.S. It’s very dangerous to use such expensive drones in our case, because of the enemy’s air defense,” he added. “It’s not Afghanistan here.”

[Usertim]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Meanwhile the Russians are having ammuntion problems, they should be more careful what pictures they upload no matter how old, as it may come back to haunt them lol.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...45992996884480

Some remarkable footage from the actual site during the event. Bear in mind this video is only 10 minutes, and the whole cook-off lasted 3 hours. Munitions now being found 2 km from the actual depot.

You Tube

[Beamr]

DPR has lost 55% of its original force so far. This is the result having Mosin-Nagants at hand and Chechens pointing AK's at their back. I wonder how long does it take for the DPR/LPR people to start thinking that it was a very bad idea to lean towards Russia.

Twitter

[B Fraser]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

You would think some of these countries would be falling over themselves to send equipment, after all the NLAW must have suddenly popped up on quite a few countries future acquisition radars having been seen to take on Russias not so finest and come out on top.
It's all monies into the UK and Swedens coffers as a result of a live field test so to speak. Plus as a bonus the said companies get to enhance their products as they learn from real combat usage.. Its a win win for everyone...... err... well everyone bar one.

Add Brimstone, Neptune, Firestreak etc. to that list. This war is changing the future landscape where tanks will be seen as a liability. Who wants to be in a helicopter where any hedgerow in a 3 mile radius could conceal a squaddie with a fire and forget rocket that will ruin your day. A kids toy drone with a hand grenade is now just as lethal as a sniper.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by B Fraser

Add Brimstone, Neptune, Firestreak etc. to that list. This war is changing the future landscape where tanks will be seen as a liability. Who wants to be in a helicopter where any hedgerow in a 3 mile radius could conceal a squaddie with a fire and forget rocket that will ruin your day. A kids toy drone with a hand grenade is now just as lethal as a sniper.

I beg to differ. MBT's and helos have their place in the battle field, but the question is who will be best in co-operation in between branches. The question is mobility and layers. One needs efficient long range artillery, medium range artillery and mortars. One needs air support (which has not been seen in large scale in Ukraine so far from either side), one needs AA. One needs Infantry not to mention support and services. Make it all mobile and operating seamlessly together and you have a winning combination. This is exactly what the western forces are doing and I believe doing it tenfolds better than the Russians. What I've read from the interweb of the current situation the Russians are also lacking CAP which leaves their other assets vulnerable. As no one really has upper hand in the air it makes life of said helo crews and ground assets a bit miserable. Last year there was a tweet from a Russian Su-27 pilot showing a Garmin hand held GPS in the cockpit. That doesn't quite exactly fit the bill of tactical data link. There's been reports for similar equipment found in downed RU aircrafts in Ukraine so the issues of non-existing co-operation between branches is really an issue.

Most of the Russian armored vehicles from MBT's to APC's have been destroyed while stationary or in a convoy (eg river crossing in which a battallion was destroyed or the convoy to Kiev). They were lacking infantry support (against LAW teams), AA-support (against drones and aircrafts) and counter-artillery (against, well, artillery). Once they start to be not so incredibly stupid they'll do much better, however the structural issues with all of their MBT's sending turrets to orbit if given a bad eye does make the life of crews very worrysome. However they've found a workaround and placing only 10 rounds per cartouch instead of full 40 hence avoiding the chain reaction that blows the turrets away (but going into a fight with only 1/4 of ammo gives you a whole different set of problems).

The Ukrainians have got their biggest victories so far with co-operation, eg the river crossing location was spotted by a team of scouts, they gave the coordinates to the long range artillery in advance, sent the drone in the air as an eye in the sky and once the battallion was at its most vulnerable state gave the fire command. The result can be seen on youtube.