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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 10th Jun 2022, 08:26
  #6241 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
  1. A mercenary shall not have the right to be a combatant or a prisoner of war.
  2. A mercenary is any person who:
    • (a) is especially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict;
    • (b) does, in fact, take a direct part in the hostilities;
    • (c) is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a Party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that Party;
    • (d) is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict;
    • (e) is not a member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict; and
    • (f) has not been sent by a State which is not a Party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces.
TBH the Ukrainians probably give short shrift to any Wagner employees or Syrian or African mercs they catch.

Under normal circumstances any lawyer could drive a bus through those definitions.
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Old 10th Jun 2022, 09:24
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So Putin see's himself as a modern day Peter the Great, that's cool.....

Peter was overthrown, and within two weeks, died in mysterious circumstances, with his wife suspected of having played a part in his demise
Fingers crossed.

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Old 10th Jun 2022, 09:38
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One wasn't a mercenary in any term of the word, he is married to a Ukrainian, lived in Ukraine since 2017 and joined the Ukrainian Army long before any invasion (2018), so was a serving member of their forces.
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Old 10th Jun 2022, 11:36
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Mariupol. Just one cemetery. Estimated 3000 fresh graves. Just one makeshift cemetery amongst many.
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Old 10th Jun 2022, 11:58
  #6245 (permalink)  
 
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Is it me or has Ukraine changed, they were scoring success after success playing to their own rules, stretching out the Russians so they were having trouble supplying their front lines, effectively negating their artillery advantages and hitting them hard and fast with modern weaponary supplied by the west.

Now they are fighting a war where they are now playing to the Russian rules by holding a line and their best troops are getting slaughtered in their no doubt thousands by the said artillery that is now being used to its advantage, while holding on to the hope of mass artillery deliveries that may be some way off. There is sadly no short term fix to that, compounded by the west seemingly inability to grasp the situation and to provide resources in a timely manner even when requested by those on the ground.. We always seem to be playing catch up.

The problem I see is Ukraine is having to defend so many fronts tying up its forces, Odesa and the coast, the Moldovia breakaway region, the whole of the Donbas / Crimean front, the Russian Border, and that of Belarus, where Russia simply needs to concentrate in the east. perhaps they should make a play or a strike towards Belogrod thus forcing Russia to redeploy troops from elsewhere on the battle front?

..

Last edited by NutLoose; 10th Jun 2022 at 12:08.
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Old 10th Jun 2022, 12:02
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Is it me or has Ukraine changed, they were scoring success' after success playing to their own rules, stretching out the Russians so they were having trouble supplying their front lines, effectively negating their artillery advantages and hitting them hard and fast with modern weaponary supplied by the west to a war were tey are playing to the Russians rules by holding a line and getting slaughtered in theirno doubt thousands by the said artillery that is now being used to its advantage while holding on to the hope of mass artillery deliveries that may be some way off. There is sadly no short term fix to that compounded by the westseemingly unable to provide resources in a timely manner even when requested by those on the ground..
Both sides learn during conflicts. Russia has changed and dramatically focussed its efforts, such that unless Ukraine focusses its efforts in response (which it has done) then the new Russian tactics are viable. What we are witnessing is the logical outcome of that dual evolution of tactics.
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Old 10th Jun 2022, 14:31
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Agree with you both. If, and only IF, Ukraine has the resources, it does seem to me [and what do I know of Land Warfare?] that some activity against that long flank towards Odesa might attract some distraction from RU focus on the Eastern actions.

Settling down to a long grinding campaign in the east has to favour RU.
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Old 10th Jun 2022, 14:49
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Russian tanks got some armor upgrades:

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Old 10th Jun 2022, 14:59
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Originally Posted by MikeSnow
Russian tanks got some armor upgrades:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1...289794/photo/1

Do you think pebble dashing it will help?
Incidentally, during WW2 the Russians used an early version of Slat Armour by using bed frames attached to their tanks, springs and all..





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Old 10th Jun 2022, 15:06
  #6250 (permalink)  
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Wagner - Gotterdamerung -“The Army of the Dead”…

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Old 10th Jun 2022, 15:11
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A bit of nap of the earth flying, Ukrainian style




Crew member extraction from a downed Ukrainian helicopter, film is in several parts


Last edited by NutLoose; 10th Jun 2022 at 15:24.
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Old 10th Jun 2022, 16:30
  #6252 (permalink)  
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Not sure what they are now equipped with - but it’s accurate…

”A Russian rocket artillery position was completely obliterated by the Ukrainian 40th Artillery Brigade - at least 13 vehicles were destroyed including 6 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers, and supply trucks.”….

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Old 10th Jun 2022, 20:24
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Not sure what they are now equipped with - but it’s accurate…

”A Russian rocket artillery position was completely obliterated by the Ukrainian 40th Artillery Brigade - at least 13 vehicles were destroyed including 6 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers, and supply trucks.”….
Give them more
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Old 10th Jun 2022, 20:28
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Not sure what they are now equipped with - but it’s accurate…

”A Russian rocket artillery position was completely obliterated by the Ukrainian 40th Artillery Brigade - at least 13 vehicles were destroyed including 6 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers, and supply trucks.”….
So is the Green sight a geo locator for these Excalibur shells...?

If so, then it works and could be the game changer with this sort of accuracy.
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Old 10th Jun 2022, 20:34
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That was impressive, this one is showing British supplied Martlets setting up and taking down Russian drones.




Brimstones in action too


Last edited by NutLoose; 10th Jun 2022 at 21:06.
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Old 10th Jun 2022, 20:54
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Russian SU 25 hit and seriously damaged apparently made it back to base and needs a sh*tload of Speed Tape.



Ukraine Mig 29 BDR repairs


Last edited by NutLoose; 10th Jun 2022 at 21:13.
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Old 10th Jun 2022, 21:38
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Originally Posted by Obba
So is the Green sight a geo locator for these Excalibur shells...?

If so, then it works and could be the game changer with this sort of accuracy.
The French are also providing anti personnel shells


There is a New Ukrainian system coming on stream, I will try to find the link

found it


Last edited by NutLoose; 10th Jun 2022 at 21:53.
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Old 10th Jun 2022, 21:50
  #6258 (permalink)  
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Germany increased imports from Russia by 60% in first four months of 2022.

According to Andriy Melnyk, Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Russia’s imports to Germany reached 6 billion euros. “This is madness,” said Melnyk.
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Old 10th Jun 2022, 23:44
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Russian SU 25 hit and seriously damaged apparently made it back to base and needs a sh*tload of Speed Tape.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...C9xd_ZsM4qAAAA


Ukraine Mig 29 BDR repairs

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...CwkcTChc0qAAAA
I sure wish there was a way to supply the UA more Migs
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Old 11th Jun 2022, 04:37
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Whether it’s Excalibur or not, they’re certainly are using something…

In the meantime the news is depressing. Listening to the BBC UKR podcast this morning the Russians have a 20:1 advantage in artillery in the Donbas and a 40:1 advantage in ammunition and are making it tell. They are also getting their act together in EW against commercial drones, I don’t know how many Starlink equipped/secure comms drones they have to replace them.

This seems to be developing into a war of attrition where we see if Russia will run out of troops and trucks before they can break through the UKR lines vs UKR getting their reserves and NATO supplied HIMARS into action in sufficient numbers to hit Russian artillery and supplies.


Last edited by ORAC; 11th Jun 2022 at 05:06.
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