Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[ORAC]

An excellent thread - but in the context of the Cold War the drawdown in production capability and bases started much earlier with the concept of the 3 day war as the Russians advanced before we went nuclear.

Meaning no additional manpower was needed beyond that point. To the point Admin sections and kitchens were closed to provide guards for 72 hours with their work ceasing.

The shock when prolonged operations were required in the preparation for GW I was palpable, with UK stations being gutted to provide these essential services to the few deployed squadrons.

I was at SOC Boulmer and had to give weekly briefings to the families of the cooks, drivers, admin clerks etc who had suddenly been sent to Saudi whilst we the “combat forces” of the Operations Wing we left at home watching it on TV…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...860118528.html

It is now 115 days since Russia invaded #Ukraine. Today, an examination of how the war has re-emphasised industrial capacity to sustain military operations in the 21st century. ….

This week, an article by Alex Vershinin at @RUSI_org explored the consumption rates of ammunition in the Russo-Ukraine War and how industry capacity to manufacture the large quantities of ammunition needed for modern war is limited. You can read the full article here:

https://t.co/gRAGrrcr0f

The article argues that “war between peer or near-peer adversaries demands the existence of a technically advanced, mass scale, industrial-age production capability.” This is true.

But it is also an old lesson re-learned. In the wake of the Cold War, and the draw down on military spending, military forces were downsized (reducing demand), and militaries engaged in operations that only had short periods of high intensity combat.…