Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
Widescreen - not a NATO job at all but the EU could act as a partner to a future Russia (they already were to some extent with the German policies of building links through trade).
The power and money of the EU could help a reborn Russia stand on it's own feet but there would have to be no military threat - which the Russians perceive NATO to be - it would have to be trade based and would need a lot of investment from the West.
The Russians have a common currency, an almost common language and a country-wide system of command and control/government - if you can remove the FSB and the thought police from their country and introduce a bit of free speech without the threat of imprisonment (or worse) the raw materials for a successful rebirth of a proud nation are there.
The power and money of the EU could help a reborn Russia stand on it's own feet but there would have to be no military threat - which the Russians perceive NATO to be - it would have to be trade based and would need a lot of investment from the West.
The Russians have a common currency, an almost common language and a country-wide system of command and control/government - if you can remove the FSB and the thought police from their country and introduce a bit of free speech without the threat of imprisonment (or worse) the raw materials for a successful rebirth of a proud nation are there.
Those in the Power (including the FSB) aren't going to give up, or even share, their power with democratic elected competitors. That is, why I suggest, to take care the Russian Federation breaks up, etc. It removes the Nukes threat, removes the original powers and brings back a more manageable scale. See how much difficulties the US does have to keep its democracy upright.
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Whilst Russia is a country-mile from doing a Yugoslavia IMO, it does beg the question what would the likes of NATO, the EU and China do if it were to descend into civil war, with its various bits vying for control over its natural resources and nukes? If it came to some sort of sphere-of-influence carve-up, China could do quite well with the resource-rich eastern territories, Europe being left with all the lunatic-fringe territories west of the Urals...
The Nukes: I don't think, that stuff is suitable for regional conflicts, apart from that, just too expensive to manage.
Natural resources: Oil can be relatively easily transported (though large scale is still overhead intensive), but gas needs the tubes. And those tubes will cross that many areas to reach somebody willing to pay for it at a large scale, that it is likely a conflicting area is crossed. When the tubes are already in place, it's a difficult situation. When the tubes need to be instated, forget it.
The China connection: It's a huge distance, so needs careful planning, protection, etc. Less suitable for conflicting areas. Mongolia isn't that much a China friend, on top of that pretty uninhabitable, so, difficult.
West of the Urals: Yeah, that was the thought of the NATO future, before Putin started messing around with reality and becoming more and more a NATO opponent again, early 2000. Apart from the Putin made mess (social, political and some more), Russians are quite nice people, a bit rough on the edge, though that is not that strange in other areas on the Globe, US Midwest, Mexico, Colombia, etc.
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“Ship on fire” also reported on CNN. Waiting for more details.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
According to Ukrainian sources the Russians once again attempted to ford the Siverskyi Donets river, near Bilohorivka, earlier this afternoon.
It went about as well as their previous attempts...
It went about as well as their previous attempts...
Insanity, let us hope that they do not learn the definition of it any time soon.
Last edited by macmp419; 12th May 2022 at 20:05. Reason: Typo
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Ukrainian army in first, that I am aware of, use of ground launched Brimstone. Anyone recognise the launcher?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
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Shifted away from the dock
More strikes on the Island. BIG image first
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSm88YWW...jpg&name=large
What appears to be remaining air defence
More strikes on the Island. BIG image first
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSm88YWW...jpg&name=large
What appears to be remaining air defence
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Here is a turn up for the books, Civilians forcibly recruited into the Russian army from the held Donbass region refused to fight in the war and fled to the Russian border where the guards are threatening to shoot them, so they are stuck there.
Turkey looks unwilling to back Finland & Sweden
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-n...#liveblog-body
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-n...#liveblog-body
Last edited by macmp419; 13th May 2022 at 15:08. Reason: Schoolboy error - Thanks Nutty ;-)
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It looks like they are running a pump on it.
BTW, hints as to what might be putin Putin in the grave.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-n...#liveblog-body
Now, New Lines magazine reports it has obtained an audio recording of an oligarch close to the Kremlin who describes the Russian president as "very ill with blood cancer", although the type of blood cancer was not specified.
It says a "top-secret memo" was sent out by the headquarters of the FSB, Russia’s domestic security agency, to all its regional directors.
Christo Grozev, the head of investigations at Bellingcat, a well-respected forensic research website, said: "The memo instructed the regional chiefs not to trust rumours about the president's terminal condition.
"The directors were further instructed to dispel any rumors to this effect that may spread within the local FSB units. According to a source at one of the regional units who saw the memo, this unprecedented instruction had the opposite effect, with most FSB officers suddenly coming to believe that Putin indeed suffers from a serious medical condition."
The magazine goes on to detail evidence of apparent physical ailments suffered by the Russian leader, including observations about his walking - as mentioned in this story published by Sky News earlier this week.
It also refers to his changed appearance in recent times, including the fact his face now is significantly puffier - and suggests this could signify some form of medication for an illness.
Ashley Grossman, a professor of endocrinology at Oxford University, told New Lines: "Putin has always been a very fit-looking man with a slightly gaunt appearance.
BTW, hints as to what might be putin Putin in the grave.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-n...#liveblog-body
Russian agents 'believe Putin is terminally ill' after top-secret memo, report claims
Speculation around Vladimir Putin's health has circulated for several years, but has only intensified since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.Now, New Lines magazine reports it has obtained an audio recording of an oligarch close to the Kremlin who describes the Russian president as "very ill with blood cancer", although the type of blood cancer was not specified.
It says a "top-secret memo" was sent out by the headquarters of the FSB, Russia’s domestic security agency, to all its regional directors.
Christo Grozev, the head of investigations at Bellingcat, a well-respected forensic research website, said: "The memo instructed the regional chiefs not to trust rumours about the president's terminal condition.
"The directors were further instructed to dispel any rumors to this effect that may spread within the local FSB units. According to a source at one of the regional units who saw the memo, this unprecedented instruction had the opposite effect, with most FSB officers suddenly coming to believe that Putin indeed suffers from a serious medical condition."
The magazine goes on to detail evidence of apparent physical ailments suffered by the Russian leader, including observations about his walking - as mentioned in this story published by Sky News earlier this week.
It also refers to his changed appearance in recent times, including the fact his face now is significantly puffier - and suggests this could signify some form of medication for an illness.
Ashley Grossman, a professor of endocrinology at Oxford University, told New Lines: "Putin has always been a very fit-looking man with a slightly gaunt appearance.