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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 12th May 2022, 02:24
  #5421 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Thatís a heck of a lot taken out in one spot.
Apparently a lot more. Great report by the combat engineer who set up the pontoon bridge being taken out.


"After one day of combats, 9th May morning the bridge was down. Some Russian forces (~30-50 vehicles + infantry) were stuck on Ukrainian side of the river with no way back. They tried to run away using broken bridge. Then they tried to arrange a new bridge.Then, Aviation started heavy bombing of the area and it destroyed all the remains of Russians there, and other bridge they tried to make. Rumours say it's ~1500 RU dead. Their strategic objective was to cross the river and then encircle Lysychansk. They miserably failed."

Boggles the mind that Russian commanders would choose the most obvious spot for an ambush. But then again no suprise given the incompetence of the Russian army so far.

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Old 12th May 2022, 05:27
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Interesting to read intelligence assessments out of Washington over the last 24 hours that Putin is settling in for a long war.
If that's the case then he plays right into Western hands.
The combined power of NATO can continue to outspend and out arm him.
Given the ratio of Russian losses to Ukrainian - and if their current incompetence continues - he's going to prolong grinding his army and the VVS up against a cheese grater...
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Old 12th May 2022, 06:19
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Originally Posted by Rockie_Rapier
Yes, that makes very interesting reading. Were you also a little surprised to see a Muslimic nation not just buying technology from the west but producing it?
Turkey is still secular despite the efforts of some - Mustafa Kemal AtatŁrk set them on that path with such force that it has lasted with the majority.

Their economy is NOT resource based and they still manufacture a lot of things from the "German" washing machine in your house through cars and helicopters to rockets capable of launching small satellites. There is a big building industry with lots of engineers, fairly good education and they spend more on defence as a % of GDP (2.8%) than the UK (and it was historically much higher) - plus they have a larger population.

I'm sorry for the digression but it's worth understanding the difference. There's a an ongoing "contest" for power between the secular west of Turkey and the religious country hicks from the east who have recently learned to read but are upset that they cannot marry their cousins anymore.
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Old 12th May 2022, 07:27
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Breaking now - Finns to apply to join NATO.

During this spring, an important discussion on Finland's possible Nato membership has taken place. Time has been needed to let parliament and the whole society establish their stands on the matter. Time has been needed for close international contacts with Nato and its member countries, as well as with Sweden. We have wanted to give the discussion the space it required. Now that the moment of decision-making is near, we state our equal views, also for information to the parliamentary groups and parties. Nato membership would strengthen Finland's security. As a member of Nato, Finland would strengthen the entire defence alliance. Finland must apply for Nato membership without delay. We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days.
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Old 12th May 2022, 07:35
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I think you mean "they're very close to deciding"
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Old 12th May 2022, 08:00
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that's an extract from the speech today by the Finnish president Sauli NiinistŲ and Prime Minister Sanna Marin. The held a joint press conference to express their personal opinions on whether Finland should join NATO or not.
To make it short, they said that they personally feel Finland should join NATO.

...however, I would be a bit surprised if Finland would not send the request to Bruxelles in the near future...

More importantly yesterday UK and Finland signed mutual security assurances. That is even more ground breaking than this announcement of the FInnish leaders personal views. That assurance didn't get much space in media.
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Old 12th May 2022, 08:06
  #5427 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by tartare
Interesting to read intelligence assessments out of Washington over the last 24 hours that Putin is settling in for a long war.
If that's the case then he plays right into Western hands.
The combined power of NATO can continue to outspend and out arm him.
Given the ratio of Russian losses to Ukrainian - and if their current incompetence continues - he's going to prolong grinding his army and the VVS up against a cheese grater...
On the ground: Invaded ground that is.
Spoiler
 
On logistics: from the people who brought empty shelves and queues for queues' sake

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In the Air: (caution: aviation content)
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On the Sea: See under the sea.
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Under the Sea: See on the sea, except for the sunk vessels, and the Kilos.

Economics: Taking the lead from Zimbabwe
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As an Arms Exporter: Get your discounted arms here! going out of business sale.
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As a Federation: Togetherness.
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Wistful reminiscence of the Soviet Union: The good old days.
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Oil 'n Gas: Russia's contribution to greening the world.
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Standing Army: The might of the fomer USSR.
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Kleptocracy: Robbing hood
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Russia and NATO border countries: How to force countries to join NATO
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Russia's border security: Why would some country want to attack Russia?
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Morale & Morals: Not happy campers
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Watch for Ukraine cutting off RuAF MSRs and starting to get mass surrenders in the field. RuAF have limited capability to attack Odessa by land, and the sea remains attractive except that it has a very low probability to succeed. The window for Russia to do anything is closing fast, and the issues are all immediate, not the mid to long-term matters that can be fixed by mobilization or entering a wartime economy. The Kerch bridge still needs to go, ASAP, and Sevastopol sea lanes need to be interdicted.

To rebuild the losses, Russia needs more time and resources than exist at this time, so perhaps the best win for Putin is a negotiation ASAP, before the situation ends up with the isolation of Russian forces in Crimea, and the disruption of all Russian forces in east Ukraine. Putin is not of a mind to do anything good for Russia, so it remains of morbid interest to see what other damage he does to Russia.













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Old 12th May 2022, 09:56
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Snake Island

BBC piece on who controls it

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61406808
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Old 12th May 2022, 10:20
  #5429 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tartare
Interesting to read intelligence assessments out of Washington over the last 24 hours that Putin is settling in for a long war.
If that's the case then he plays right into Western hands.
The combined power of NATO can continue to outspend and out arm him.
Given the ratio of Russian losses to Ukrainian - and if their current incompetence continues - he's going to prolong grinding his army and the VVS up against a cheese grater...
That is probably is why the Russian news chat shows are all rabbiting on about the need to "take control" and put industry onto a wartime production setting.
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Old 12th May 2022, 10:29
  #5430 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
That is probably is why the Russian news chat shows are all rabbiting on about the need to "take control" and put industry onto a wartime production setting.
OK as long as they don't mention the war. "Special Production Operation" acceptable, I assume?
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Old 12th May 2022, 11:17
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Originally Posted by Beamr
that's an extract from the speech today by the Finnish president Sauli NiinistŲ and Prime Minister Sanna Marin. The held a joint press conference to express their personal opinions on whether Finland should join NATO or not.
To make it short, they said that they personally feel Finland should join NATO.

...however, I would be a bit surprised if Finland would not send the request to Bruxelles in the near future...

More importantly yesterday UK and Finland signed mutual security assurances. That is even more ground breaking than this announcement of the FInnish leaders personal views. That assurance didn't get much space in media.

Yeah looks like Finland made up it's mind and will take quite a lot to make u-turn away from it...

"Finland must apply for Nato membership without delay. " and "Nato membership would strengthen Finland's security"

Looks like Sweden will follow suit in a few days applying as wellp, surely not part of VP's plan earlier...
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Old 12th May 2022, 11:28
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Any Idea? A big orange cloud




Last edited by NutLoose; 12th May 2022 at 12:16.
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Old 12th May 2022, 11:36
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More on the tank rolling over the troops, from the tanks view, quite a bit of last minute adjustments going on by the troops on the ground... The last guy is lying on his back filming it on his phone lol.


Not what one would call Russian's displaying skill, the tank with the mine rollers is actually following some of the BTR's, not in front clearing a path LOL

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Old 12th May 2022, 11:50
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Any Idea? A big orange cloud
According to Dan Kaszeta (who should know) it is an ammonium nitrate explosion. Likely a result of an agricultural warehouse being targeted (or hit by mistake). Almost certainly not a deliberate use of chemical weapons.

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Old 12th May 2022, 12:11
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Old 12th May 2022, 12:31
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
More on the tank rolling over the troops, from the tanks view
Somehow it seems like the tank is driving a lot faster than in the other video
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Old 12th May 2022, 12:46
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Originally Posted by Sue VÍtements
Somehow it seems like the tank is driving a lot faster than in the other video

Now they need to do it at this speed.

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Old 12th May 2022, 12:51
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Originally Posted by Recc
According to Dan Kaszeta (who should know) it is an ammonium nitrate explosion. Likely a result of an agricultural warehouse being targeted (or hit by mistake). Almost certainly not a deliberate use of chemical weapons.

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/statu...78308074897411
Nitrogen Dioxide by the look of the colour, Chlorine is yellowy green
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Old 12th May 2022, 14:28
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
Now they need to do it at this speed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTj8FnmGLTM
hmmm ... and people here mutter about flying displays? What could have gone wrong there? Bloody stupid, IMHO.
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Old 12th May 2022, 15:20
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Originally Posted by Recc
According to Dan Kaszeta (who should know) it is an ammonium nitrate explosion. Likely a result of an agricultural warehouse being targeted (or hit by mistake). Almost certainly not a deliberate use of chemical weapons.

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/statu...78308074897411
Compare with the secondary explosion of the stored fertilliser in Beruit in 2019 - same red orange colour

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