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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 18th Mar 2022, 21:48
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More pieces of evidence suggest Russia is shifting its tactics towards a long-term static war. New Maxar pics show fresh Russian fortification works northwest of Kyiv between Hostomel and Ozera. Good luck sustaining defense in a hostile terrain amid acute resource shortage.

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Old 18th Mar 2022, 22:02
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Home Run?

Originally Posted by NutLoose
Hmmmmm


'Twould be awful if Aeroflot had any problems.
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Old 18th Mar 2022, 23:17
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Question, if they launched the cruise missiles from the Black Sea to take out the aircraft repair centre, would it fly across western countries as shown on Sky or would it as I thought remain in Ukrainian territory.
They are basically the same as the Tomahawk or ALCM in that they can be programmed to fly to a target via multiple waypoints.
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 02:20
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Fascinating illustrated article by military author Nishimura Kinichi 西村金一 in Japanese analysing the recent (mid-March 2022) movements of Russian naval ships and submarines in the far east. If you can find a reliable and intelligible translation service, it is worth the time to read.

Essentially it suggests that these rather rusty Soviet era ships have been carrying troops and equipment taken from Kamchatka and the Kuriles garrisons to Vladivostok in order to send to Ukraine. ICBM subs have been placed on alert. It suggests that Putin is desperately looking to the Far Eastern reaches for reinforcements; it estimates the numbers of troops (tens of thousands) taken from the islands and from the borders with China, and the time it will take for them all to arrive in Ukraine for the next big push, said to be not less than a week or so from the 16th March. In the meantime warnings have been issued to the remaining garrisons to be on alert for Japanese or US attacks while they are in their temporarily weakened state.

This is only one military analyst's opinion, but it helps put together some of the pieces of the puzzle. If you cannot find a translation device, then enjoy the photos and movement maps.

https://jbpress.ismedia.jp/articles/-/69335
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 02:28
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Euromaiden is reporting a Lieutenant General Andrey Mordvichev was killed in a arty strike on his command post at / near Kherson. The status of his command staff including 2 major generals is still unknown .

Also theres twitter footage of russian trucks towing unflightworthy helicopters (Mi-17, 2 havocs and 1 Mil-35 ) from the airfield
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 04:25
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The film of the helis being towed away.


When you think you saw it all, you get to see this.. Multiple Russian AF helicopters being towed from Kherson Airport.. Watch again




Satellite images show up to 13 Russian helicopters destroyed in #Kherson air base on March 16. According to media reports, #Ukrainian artillery smashes Russian equipment in this place for the fifth time. #UkraineRussiaWar

Last edited by NutLoose; 19th Mar 2022 at 04:37.
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 04:35
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Not sure if it's been posted already but rather "interesting" and ultimately not successful tactics on display here.

Low level flying right over the area you are attempting to suppress, going by date looks like it could of been one of the initial strikes against airports. And ending with a forced landing just off the field.
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 06:29
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Originally Posted by JPcont
If you want to understand some rationality behind irrational Russian actions, this might help...
That is fascinating... watched the whole thing... thank you.
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 07:12
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The source is credible so one may translate this as a major issue to Putin.

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Old 19th Mar 2022, 10:59
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Russia claims it has used hypersonic missiles in Ukraine.
It has not been verified yet by Ukraine or by anyone else, but it surely will be interesting how it really is working out. Both from SIGINT and effect perspective.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/w...fense-ministry
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 12:51
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Originally Posted by SnowFella
Not sure if it's been posted already but rather "interesting" and ultimately not successful tactics on display here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c78O7zWwkrA

Low level flying right over the area you are attempting to suppress, going by date looks like it could of been one of the initial strikes against airports. And ending with a forced landing just off the field.
Bang on mate. One of the downfalls of the 52, no capacity to engage, suppress on the break. He was 180 out with his wing as well. No cover on the break there. Obviously forgot the ole adage of “never over fly the location you just strafed/bombed”.
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 13:22
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Originally Posted by Doors Off
Bang on mate. One of the downfalls of the 52, no capacity to engage, suppress on the break. He was 180 out with his wing as well. No cover on the break there. Obviously forgot the ole adage of “never over fly the location you just strafed/bombed”.
Seems a bit like they are severely missing the (bad) experiences from places like Afghanistan or Iraq.
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 15:11
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Originally Posted by henra
Seems a bit like they are severely missing the (bad) experiences from places like Afghanistan or Iraq.
Not sure sitting in the wheel at 2 grand would be useful experience for Ukraine.
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 16:20
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 17:14
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That is sllly, in less than four weeks they lose as many as they did in 10 years in Afghanistan. People are gonna notice!
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 17:55
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Beamr, ( there is no quote, that's just to get your attention ) since you have good local knowledge, have you read if the Russian conscripts are being sent home in early April as usual to make way for the new class ?
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 18:17
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Beamr, ( there is no quote, that's just to get your attention ) since you have good local knowledge, have you read if the Russian conscripts are being sent home in early April as usual to make way for the new class ?
err... I'm not Russian so... I don't know.
But if they would not be sent back home, it would probably raise loud questions why aren't they at home and where are they. Putin did promise domestically that the conscripts are not taking part so there should be no reason to hold them in service. This combined with the loud mothers union (that made RF withdraw from the first chechnyan war) gives me hope that the russian conscripts will go home where they should be.
note that this is just my wishful thinking as the only one with definite knowledge is Putin himself.
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 18:34
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It is actually against Russian law for conscripts to serve in a foreign country.

Maybe there are some in UKraine :P , but the media often points out a lot of the mediocre performance of russian military is down to conscripts. If they are obeying their law , there are no conscripts and the mediocre performance is down to main force units.

Last edited by Usertim; 19th Mar 2022 at 19:22.
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 18:48
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Originally Posted by Beamr
err... I'm not Russian so... I don't know.
But if they would not be sent back home, it would probably raise loud questions why aren't they at home and where are they. Putin did promise domestically that the conscripts are not taking part so there should be no reason to hold them in service. This combined with the loud mothers union (that made RF withdraw from the first chechnyan war) gives me hope that the russian conscripts will go home where they should be.
note that this is just my wishful thinking as the only one with definite knowledge is Putin himself.
Well, given the large numbers involved - and the new class arriving - one would expect that normally there would be lots of preparations involved in for the new arrivals. It seems to me that this is another big problem for Putin. If the conscripts aren't sent home, then big public uproar and everyone starts asking " Is it true what they say about Ukraine " ? On the other hand , if they do send them home, then there will be tens of thousands of young men spread over the whole country who have been there, who are eye-witnesses to what has been happening and will be believed. In that case the mothers of the new conscript class will make their feeling known. A lose-lose position for Putin if Ukraine continues to hold on.

EDIT: I have just found the following which presumably backs up the idea of the presumed "blitzkrieg victory " being made just six days before the invasion, therefore expecting everything to be back to normal for the new conscript arrivals.

"The Russian Armed Forces conscript men semi-annually, with the fall draft lasting from October 1 until December 31 and the spring draft running from April 1 until July 15.[3] In 2022, the Kremlin announced the spring draft early on February 18"
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Old 19th Mar 2022, 18:51
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Originally Posted by Usertim
It is actually against Russian law for conscripts to serve in a foreign country.
Maybe there are some in UKtaine :P , but the media often points out a lot of the mediocre performance of russian military is down to conscripts. If they are obeying their law , there are no conscripts and the mediocre performance is down to main force units.
Serve how ? In war, or a "police action" ? I would bet that there are regulations that say " Exceptionally, if deemed necessary ...................etc "
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