Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Have to say those drones are an effin' menace. One features here, tracking an ITV news crew:

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Interestingly the MOD update today as to the state of play map wise is still showing Mariupol as contested, and the briefing avoids mentioning the city having fallen.



Last edited by NutLoose; 18th May 2022 at 16:21.

Top-ranking Ukrainian commanders at the Azovstal steelworks "have not surrendered", a pro-Russian separatist leader has said, as Russia claims that almost one thousand Ukrainian troops have left the plant.The hundreds of fighters who have given themselves up did not include any commanders of the highest level, Denis Pushilin, the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, is reported to have said.
His comments come as Russia's defence ministry claimed that 959 people had now laid down their arms at the steelworks plant, the last bastion of Ukrainian defence in the besieged city of Mariupol.
His comments come as Russia's defence ministry claimed that 959 people had now laid down their arms at the steelworks plant, the last bastion of Ukrainian defence in the besieged city of Mariupol.

With Ukranian resistance in the steel works apparently tying up a lot of Russian forces, it makes sense to maintain some presence (albeit at huge risk to the individuals involved). Shipping out everyone they can manage without removes them from harm's way (hopefully); make sure it's well-publicised in the hope that stops the Russians from disappearing them, and there's a reduced demand on whatever resources remain within the works.

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NutLoose, I find the "441 UAV" figure to be very significant (to me) as a data point, given how drones have been changing warfare for about two decades. Any idea on how many drones Ukraine has lost (they use them a lot) or is that number not well understood?

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General Petraeus thoughts on the war

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Oryx found visual confirmation for 61 Russian UAVs and 22 Ukrainian UAVs (captured or destroyed). A week ago Russia was claiming they destroyed 821 Ukrainian drones.

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https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (61, of which destroyed: 34, captured: 27)
Ukrainian
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...ukrainian.html
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (22, of which destroyed: 18, captured: 4)

The difference in reported 'confirmed' versus 'estimated' in my experience was about a factor of 3 (that was human casualties) which looks similar to the delta here (at least in terms of order of magnitude). One should make considerable allowance for estimation/error/dual reporting during an ongoing conflict.
NutLoose: thanks for the video link, the General offered a pretty sober assessment.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 18th May 2022 at 16:47.


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Yes one of the new grave sites around Mariupol


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https://www.currentnewstv.com/2022/0...a-says-report/
Errrrmmm…….. hasn’t anyone told the Russians that it will be under the terms of reparations
Russia-Ukraine War: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has entered day 83.
Russia will finance the reconstruction of territories in Ukraine that it has taken control of and will repair roads that link those areas with Russia, RIA quoted Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin as saying on Wednesday.
Khusnullin said Russia had “freed” the territories.
He also said the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the biggest in Europe by capacity, will supply energy to Russia and to Ukraine if the latter pays for it, RIA reported. Russian troops seized the Zaporizhzhia plant from Ukraine.
Russia will finance the reconstruction of territories in Ukraine that it has taken control of and will repair roads that link those areas with Russia, RIA quoted Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin as saying on Wednesday.
Khusnullin said Russia had “freed” the territories.
He also said the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the biggest in Europe by capacity, will supply energy to Russia and to Ukraine if the latter pays for it, RIA reported. Russian troops seized the Zaporizhzhia plant from Ukraine.


https://www.currentnewstv.com/2022/0...a-says-report/
Errrrmmm…….. hasn’t anyone told the Russians that it will be under the terms of reparations
Errrrmmm…….. hasn’t anyone told the Russians that it will be under the terms of reparations
Get the popcorn out if not with their propensity for wiring faults whilst lashing it up


So the Russian war machine grinds to a halt.
And…
”We’ve achieved what we came to do, this time around. New international border line to be announced shortly. Thank you all for your co-operation.”
And…
”We’ve achieved what we came to do, this time around. New international border line to be announced shortly. Thank you all for your co-operation.”

Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Mikhail Khodaryonok on Russian state TV two days after his last assessment of Russia's chances in Ukraine and its international isolation.
Normal Russian TV service resumes - we apologise for this interruption….
Normal Russian TV service resumes - we apologise for this interruption….


Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Politico:
Shapps vs. Aeroflot:
Russian airlines face further measures today under new sanctions being unveiled by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps. Playbook is told he will use a gathering of transport ministers in Leipzig to announce “tough and expensive measures” aimed at flag carrier Aeroflot and other operators.
Shapps will also meet with his Ukrainian opposite number Oleksandr Kubrakov, with whom he speaks regularly by phone, as he seeks to forge a reputation as an international scourge of Russian international travel. “Aeroflot is going to be a lot worse off by the end of today,” says a source.
Shapps vs. Aeroflot:
Russian airlines face further measures today under new sanctions being unveiled by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps. Playbook is told he will use a gathering of transport ministers in Leipzig to announce “tough and expensive measures” aimed at flag carrier Aeroflot and other operators.
Shapps will also meet with his Ukrainian opposite number Oleksandr Kubrakov, with whom he speaks regularly by phone, as he seeks to forge a reputation as an international scourge of Russian international travel. “Aeroflot is going to be a lot worse off by the end of today,” says a source.

So those are the 20K+ people that Russia came to liberate? Along with rape and plunder of random residents of all of the areas the RF walked over.
The latest news on 950+ survivors of the Azovstal defense is good on the numbers of survivors, but less impressed by Russia placing same into pre-trial detention, presumably as always Russia will now blame the victims of Russian aggression and murder. Russia continues to do this with a straight face (or in Lavrov's case one that looks like it has had a go with Bells Palsy or other CVA), to allege actions that they are blatantly doing themselves.
Time for secondary sanctions, if countries still accept the Russians in part while they behave with such violence and dishonor, then they should also be held to account as enablers.
Russia does a home invasion, and then murders and rapes many of the occupants, and then haul off some of the survivors and wants to charge them with crimes. The criminals are there all right, wearing white/red/blue flags and continuing their wrecking of Russia.
The latest news on 950+ survivors of the Azovstal defense is good on the numbers of survivors, but less impressed by Russia placing same into pre-trial detention, presumably as always Russia will now blame the victims of Russian aggression and murder. Russia continues to do this with a straight face (or in Lavrov's case one that looks like it has had a go with Bells Palsy or other CVA), to allege actions that they are blatantly doing themselves.
Time for secondary sanctions, if countries still accept the Russians in part while they behave with such violence and dishonor, then they should also be held to account as enablers.
Russia does a home invasion, and then murders and rapes many of the occupants, and then haul off some of the survivors and wants to charge them with crimes. The criminals are there all right, wearing white/red/blue flags and continuing their wrecking of Russia.
