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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 18th May 2022, 11:49
  #5621 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Russia claim to have taken out Ukrainian M777 Howitzers......... and they have film to prove it....... the only flaw is the film shows them as all appear to be missing the targets.
Alas close enough to cause some casualties and possibly damage to the M777, as the second Tweet points out.

Have to say those drones are an effin' menace. One features here, tracking an ITV news crew:

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Old 18th May 2022, 12:27
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Interestingly the MOD update today as to the state of play map wise is still showing Mariupol as contested, and the briefing avoids mentioning the city having fallen.




Last edited by NutLoose; 18th May 2022 at 15:21.
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Old 18th May 2022, 12:38
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Interestingly the MOD update today as to the state of play map wise is still showing Mariupol as contested, and the briefing avoids mention the city having fallen.
The Telegraph is reporting that not all of the Ukrainian forces have left the plant.

Top-ranking Ukrainian commanders at the Azovstal steelworks "have not surrendered", a pro-Russian separatist leader has said, as Russia claims that almost one thousand Ukrainian troops have left the plant.The hundreds of fighters who have given themselves up did not include any commanders of the highest level, Denis Pushilin, the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, is reported to have said.

His comments come as Russia's defence ministry claimed that 959 people had now laid down their arms at the steelworks plant, the last bastion of Ukrainian defence in the besieged city of Mariupol.
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Old 18th May 2022, 13:29
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With Ukranian resistance in the steel works apparently tying up a lot of Russian forces, it makes sense to maintain some presence (albeit at huge risk to the individuals involved). Shipping out everyone they can manage without removes them from harm's way (hopefully); make sure it's well-publicised in the hope that stops the Russians from disappearing them, and there's a reduced demand on whatever resources remain within the works.
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Old 18th May 2022, 14:17
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Old 18th May 2022, 14:35
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
{Your Chart}
NutLoose, I find the "441 UAV" figure to be very significant (to me) as a data point, given how drones have been changing warfare for about two decades. Any idea on how many drones Ukraine has lost (they use them a lot) or is that number not well understood?
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Old 18th May 2022, 14:57
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General Petraeus thoughts on the war

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Old 18th May 2022, 15:06
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
NutLoose, I find the "441 UAV" figure to be very significant (to me) as a data point, given how drones have been changing warfare for about two decades. Any idea on how many drones Ukraine has lost (they use them a lot) or is that number not well understood?
Oryx found visual confirmation for 61 Russian UAVs and 22 Ukrainian UAVs (captured or destroyed). A week ago Russia was claiming they destroyed 821 Ukrainian drones.
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Old 18th May 2022, 15:11
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
NutLoose, I find the "441 UAV" figure to be very significant (to me) as a data point, given how drones have been changing warfare for about two decades. Any idea on how many drones Ukraine has lost (they use them a lot) or is that number not well understood?
Russian losses verified from photo evidence they give, but i would bet a lot are not recorded

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (61, of which destroyed: 34, captured: 27)

Ukrainian

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...ukrainian.html

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (22, of which destroyed: 18, captured: 4)

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Old 18th May 2022, 15:36
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Originally Posted by MikeSnow
Oryx found visual confirmation for 61 Russian UAVs and 22 Ukrainian UAVs (captured or destroyed). A week ago Russia was claiming they destroyed 821 Ukrainian drones.
Thank you, Mike.
The difference in reported 'confirmed' versus 'estimated' in my experience was about a factor of 3 (that was human casualties) which looks similar to the delta here (at least in terms of order of magnitude). One should make considerable allowance for estimation/error/dual reporting during an ongoing conflict.

NutLoose: thanks for the video link, the General offered a pretty sober assessment.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 18th May 2022 at 15:47.
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Old 18th May 2022, 17:46
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Nuttoose, any idea where those photos are located? That's slot of graves, more than 3100 recent or prepped by a rough count.
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Old 18th May 2022, 18:14
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Originally Posted by fdr
Nuttoose, any idea where those photos are located? That's slot of graves, more than 3100 recent or prepped by a rough count.
Looks similar to a Maxar satellite image of a cemetry near Mariupol:

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Old 18th May 2022, 18:31
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Yes one of the new grave sites around Mariupol
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Old 18th May 2022, 19:03
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https://www.currentnewstv.com/2022/0...a-says-report/

Russia-Ukraine War: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has entered day 83.

Russia will finance the reconstruction of territories in Ukraine that it has taken control of and will repair roads that link those areas with Russia, RIA quoted Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin as saying on Wednesday.

Khusnullin said Russia had “freed” the territories.

He also said the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the biggest in Europe by capacity, will supply energy to Russia and to Ukraine if the latter pays for it, RIA reported. Russian troops seized the Zaporizhzhia plant from Ukraine.
Errrrmmm…….. hasn’t anyone told the Russians that it will be under the terms of reparations
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Old 18th May 2022, 20:24
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Lightbulb

Originally Posted by NutLoose
https://www.currentnewstv.com/2022/0...a-says-report/



Errrrmmm…….. hasn’t anyone told the Russians that it will be under the terms of reparations
Is the Ukraine grid even connected to the RF grid?

Get the popcorn out if not with their propensity for wiring faults whilst lashing it up
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Old 19th May 2022, 00:24
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So the Russian war machine grinds to a halt.
And…

”We’ve achieved what we came to do, this time around. New international border line to be announced shortly. Thank you all for your co-operation.”
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Old 19th May 2022, 05:14
  #5637 (permalink)  
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Mikhail Khodaryonok on Russian state TV two days after his last assessment of Russia's chances in Ukraine and its international isolation.

Normal Russian TV service resumes - we apologise for this interruption….

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Old 19th May 2022, 07:00
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Mikhail Khodaryonok on Russian state TV two days after his last assessment of Russia's chances in Ukraine and its international isolation.

Normal Russian TV service resumes - we apologise for this interruption….
i think the interesting bit is his time line of months / years which in itself means the op isnt going to plan.
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Old 19th May 2022, 07:19
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Politico:

Shapps vs. Aeroflot:

Russian airlines face further measures today under new sanctions being unveiled by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps. Playbook is told he will use a gathering of transport ministers in Leipzig to announce “tough and expensive measures” aimed at flag carrier Aeroflot and other operators.

Shapps will also meet with his Ukrainian opposite number Oleksandr Kubrakov, with whom he speaks regularly by phone, as he seeks to forge a reputation as an international scourge of Russian international travel. “Aeroflot is going to be a lot worse off by the end of today,” says a source.

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Old 19th May 2022, 08:43
  #5640 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Yes one of the new grave sites around Mariupol
So those are the 20K+ people that Russia came to liberate? Along with rape and plunder of random residents of all of the areas the RF walked over.
The latest news on 950+ survivors of the Azovstal defense is good on the numbers of survivors, but less impressed by Russia placing same into pre-trial detention, presumably as always Russia will now blame the victims of Russian aggression and murder. Russia continues to do this with a straight face (or in Lavrov's case one that looks like it has had a go with Bells Palsy or other CVA), to allege actions that they are blatantly doing themselves.

Time for secondary sanctions, if countries still accept the Russians in part while they behave with such violence and dishonor, then they should also be held to account as enablers.

Russia does a home invasion, and then murders and rapes many of the occupants, and then haul off some of the survivors and wants to charge them with crimes. The criminals are there all right, wearing white/red/blue flags and continuing their wrecking of Russia.
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