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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 22nd Jul 2022, 06:04
  #7241 (permalink)  
 
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Rossiskaja Gazeta: "Transnistrian official calls for joining Russian Federation"

This has the echoes of Luhansk and Donetsk "declaration of independence" and "request for help" from Putin. I'll bet my pension that if RF army reaches the border of Moldova, it will happen in Transnistria and there will be second front.

https://m.gazeta.ru/politics/news/20...18177530.shtml
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 06:39
  #7242 (permalink)  
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Germany told Canada it would halt weapons to Ukraine if it didnít receive sanctioned Nord Stream turbine.
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 09:16
  #7243 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by uxb99
I know they are banned and politically sensitive but it's a shame Ukraine cannot shower the bridge with cluster munitions.
Denial is sometimes just as effective as destruction. Sometimes more so.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine signed the treaty so can use cluster-bombs. The US is also a non-signatory

Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 22nd Jul 2022 at 10:37.
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 09:39
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It looks like a force of possibly 250 Russians have got themselves surrounded.


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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 09:47
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Different chart that puts the losses into context.






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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 10:06
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Germany told Canada it would halt weapons to Ukraine if it didn’t receive sanctioned Nord Stream turbine.
and russia has so far not issued a permit for the turbine to shipped to russia. So looks like russia is blocking its transfer

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Neither Russia nor Ukraine signed the treaty so can use cluster-bombs. the US is also a non-signatory
All the MLRS cluster munitions were removed from service under Bush jr, they started to dismantle, dismantling continued under Obama, it was suspended under trump and reinstated under Biden. None of these rounds have been maintained and probably not suitable for firing, they have a shelf life of 25 years so guess some could be. Dunno what definition of shelf life is in the military compared to commerical. The US has a policy that all cluster munitions must have a failure to detonate rate of a <2%, The M-36 apparently have around 4% (numbers might be wrong)so thats why they were removed from service by Bush

Last edited by rattman; 22nd Jul 2022 at 10:16.
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 10:13
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
It looks like a force of possibly 250 Russians have got themselves surrounded.


https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1550299514317279240
If I was Russian in that pocket I would be more worried about Russian arty being used red on red to dissuade thoughts of surrender.
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 10:17
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The WELT article referred to in this tweet doesn't say anything of the sort.
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 11:05
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Read my posts in 7223 they think the damage is from Excalibur arty round not HIMARS.







Aaaaahhh..........those view from under put a different light on the damage, as its clear the bridge is built from precast concrete sections..........that makes life a little bit more complicated to repair.
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 11:05
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Girkin quotes today "informed people" who tell him the Russian army has more defections and KIA than new recruits per day, and will "soon have almost no resources to go on the offensive with".
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 11:10
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Originally Posted by Obba
If those beams are ok - as they look to me - then the bridge is safe..?
So maybe some steel plates over holes would suffice after all..?

Not being a structural engineer or a missile explosive expert, how come (if was a HIMARS), didn't blow the s**t out of the bridge? Looks like it, went straight through the concrete.
They are beams as such, the bridge is made up of factory precast full width sections with hollowed out deeper sections forming the 'beams'.......and a narrow cast-insitu strip down the middle between the sections.
Its not a conventional beam and slab type construction. As a structural engineer, I wouldn't be volunteering to drive over that in anything more than push bike tbh.
That's going to be a complicated repair.
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 11:11
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Girkin quotes today "informed people" who tell him the Russian army has more defections and KIA than new recruits per day, and will "soon have almost no resources to go on the offensive with".
While a lot of what Girkin says I treat with a large pinch of salt. There has been talk on russian telegrams that the guys signing up with wagner are less than 7 days from signing up to being in ukraine. There was also a UA report of some guy who signed up and within 4 days was killed by artillery in ukraine. Signed up on the 12th, equiped on the 13th, killed in ukraine on the 16th, apparently this guy was a russian army contractor (volunteer)
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 11:12
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UN-Ukrainian-Turkish-Russian agreement for the passage of Ukrainian grain….

1. Ukraine does not sign any documents with Russia. We sign an agreement with Turkey and the UN and undertake obligations to them. Russia signs a mirror agreement with Turkey and the UN.

2. No transport escort by Russian ships and no presence of Russian representatives in Ukrainian ports.

3. In case of any provocations, an immediate military response.

4. All inspections of transport ships will be carried out by joint groups in Turkish waters in the event of such a need.
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 11:22
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Ignoring losing more KIA than replacements, with some units down to 10-25% troops, even those behind the front line in occupied territory are suffering.

Remember you need 1:20 to police occupied territory with a quiescent public and every town and village taken takes more troops off the front line.



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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 11:42
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
They are beams as such, the bridge is made up of factory precast full width sections with hollowed out deeper sections forming the 'beams'.......and a narrow cast-insitu strip down the middle between the sections.
Its not a conventional beam and slab type construction. As a structural engineer, I wouldn't be volunteering to drive over that in anything more than push bike tbh.
That's going to be a complicated repair.
And from what I read, the first picture with 1234 on the hollow beams was after strike one on the bridge, the two other pictures are after the second strike and are looking down through those hollow beams from the holes in the road surface and you can see they are also holed on the underside now, so bang goes your structural strength in the beams.

I would imagine the idea was to hit it so it will be sufficently damaged to prevent them putting armour and trucks across it, either resupplying or retreating, but allow the Ukrainians the ability to repair the bridge to use it to advance across the river. Just guessing of course.
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 11:46
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
And from what I read, the first picture with 1234 on the hollow beams was after strike one on the bridge, the two other pictures are after the second strike and are looking down through those hollow beams from the holes in the road surface and you can see they are also holed on the underside now, so bang goes your structural strength in the beams.

I would imagine the idea was to hit it so it will be sufficently damaged to prevent them putting armour and trucks across it, either resupplying or retreating, but allow the Ukrainians the ability to repair the bridge to use it to advance across the river. Just guessing of course.

Give them enough that they can retreat over it on foot or with non armored vehicles, but using heavy truck or armored vehicle is a risk so they have to abandon / destroy them
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 11:47
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Three tweets in the last 12 hours, may all be bullshit, may indicate a trend…

It is reported Russian has withdrawn 25 BTGs from Ukraine due to high losses

One person whom I know recently had to travel through entire Kherson region (from west to east) and back. And on eastern side of Dnipro there were practically no working Russian checkpoints.

Absolutely working. In the whole kherson area the Russian Activity its almost zero. Column of vehicle are reported retreating to the Crimea. Same in the Donbass, there are multiple small retreat along the frontline. Seems a retreat caused by men/ammo shortage. Rip
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 12:03
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The Dutch are looking to buy up to 96 Patriot system missiles


Six Stormers with Starstreaks are in service in Ukraine now.


very good read as to what he thinks is happening and it all makes sense.



Edited due to not reading the top link correctly DOH!


Last edited by NutLoose; 22nd Jul 2022 at 14:56.
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 12:28
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The Dutch are looking to buy up to 96 Patriot systems
Thats missiles not systems, thats 96 individual missiles for thier batteries
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Old 22nd Jul 2022, 13:02
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If Russia uses a nuke on Ukraine and fallout enters a NATO country does that constitute an attack?
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