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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 6th May 2022, 05:14
  #5161 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rattman
then they have to make the choice, keep thier massively stupidly oversized nuclear force and have no money to rebuild the conventional force. Or take the money from the nuclear force to rebuild the destroyed conventional force
With a destroyed economy, there is no money at all, especially, when Europe stops buying Russian Oil and Gas.
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Old 6th May 2022, 05:24
  #5162 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by rattman
then they have to make the choice, keep thier massively stupidly oversized nuclear force and have no money to rebuild the conventional force. Or take the money from the nuclear force to rebuild the destroyed conventional force
The choices for Russia may be even more fundamental.
By any measure, Russia lost in deaths on the battlefield no less than 18% of their deployed troops. That is just those that are reported to be in body bags. looking at likely loss rates per confirmed vehicle loss gives similar losses. Adding the probable injury levels, the highest levels of 2:1 injury to fatality give 54% of the deployed troops as being ineffective. A minimum injury to fatality rate of 1:1 gives total losses of 36% of all deployed combat troops.

Russia forces massed to attack are quite likely less than parity with the defenders already. Russian supply lines remain chaotic and open to interdiction within the increasing reach of the Ukrainian forces. The continued epidemic of bad luck within Russia itself still appears to be as much domestic sourced as imported. Seems at least the conscripts are getting the message as to what Russia has been up to.

To manage the security of a country that spans 3/4 of the globe, Russia has negligible available capacity, and it getting pushback on the concept of conscription, so ramping up is no easy matter. On paper, the Russian force still fields many BTG's however, the intercepts of the troops communications indicate that many are severely understrength, to the point of being paper capability only.

Putin will need to work out how he wants this to play out, as his military is expended to a great extent. They have reportedly less than 30% of their PGM remaining, less than 50% of their combat troops that are available to be deployed, and their tanks have a propensity to pop their lids. Without air superiority which is now completely compromised by the MANPADS and the addition of more AAA/SAM capability, that doesn't seem to be on the cards. The Russian talent for brutality and murder of civilians has not added to their reputation at all, there are just more people out there that want to never have anything to do with a Russian ever again. Russia has been shown to be happy with theft of property & food, even to the point of throwing Russian combat losses to the side of the road in order to add more microwaves and washing machines. How that increases the effectiveness of combat teams is unknown. Going home would seem to be the least risk option to Putin.

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Old 6th May 2022, 05:40
  #5163 (permalink)  
 
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Can anyone confirm whether a Russian Nuke sub was caught on the surface of the Black Sea by a Ukrainian maritime patrol aircraft and that an attack was conducted?

IG
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Old 6th May 2022, 06:18
  #5164 (permalink)  
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Difficult.

1. Ukraine doesn’t have any ASW aircraft in service.

2. The only Russian subs in the Black Sea fleet are 6 diesel electric Kilo class.
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Old 6th May 2022, 06:38
  #5165 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rattman
then they have to make the choice, keep thier massively stupidly oversized nuclear force and have no money to rebuild the conventional force. Or take the money from the nuclear force to rebuild the destroyed conventional force
Let's choose the nukes. We can keep pouring lots of money in them, embezzle much of it, and never have to demonstrate their effectiveness.
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Old 6th May 2022, 07:37
  #5166 (permalink)  
 
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Is Turkey capable of stopping subs slipping through the Dardanelles, underneath a transiting ship for example?
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Old 6th May 2022, 07:54
  #5167 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Is Turkey capable of stopping subs slipping through the Dardanelles, underneath a transiting ship for example?
Shallowest point of Bosporus strait is just 36 meters deep...
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Old 6th May 2022, 08:03
  #5168 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Is Turkey capable of stopping subs slipping through the Dardanelles, underneath a transiting ship for example?
jolihokistix
Too shallow and busy though I think shown happening in 007 World is not enough. Probably some sonar in there as well to dissuade such activities. Though you might be able to get an armed merchant ship through if such things still existed.

Another route to get Western small surface and indeed underwater craft to Black Sea, would be through Rhine Danube canal and sail down Danube. I know the German Navy had E Boats and small subs in WW2 in the Black Sea by transporting overland to the Danube, as canal was only completed in early 1990,s but can now take the large Rhine barges so maybe possible depending on draft.

Cheers
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Old 6th May 2022, 08:05
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
Is Turkey capable of stopping subs slipping through the Dardanelles, underneath a transiting ship for example?
I once read an excellent and apparently very well-researched thriller in which a Russian submarine (Kilo?) does exactly that. Great material for novels, but left me with the impression that it would be very difficult indeed in real life. Not sure what the benefit would be anyway, none of the obvious submarines roles would be that much use to Russia right now.
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Old 6th May 2022, 08:53
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I read a retired Generals idea on how Ukraine could win and it involves tthe UK, US, Germany, Poland and the French each taking a brigade strength of Ukrainians and training them in western techniques and western weaponary then returning them home.

The former commander of the US Special Operations Command in Europe, retired US Army Maj. Gen. Mike Repass, says the international community has to greatly increase its support for Ukraine if the embattled nation is ever going to be able to drive the Russians out.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/04/o...iew/index.html

REPASS: You need to have the US, French, Poles, UK and the Germans each build a brigade's worth of Ukrainian combat power. Those nations have significant military capacity and could generate forces by equipping Ukrainian units and then training them in their own nations. So, that would be five brigades, in five operational sectors. And you would need probably six to eight months to implement that. These five brigades would have Western equipment fighting in Western ways, an integrated air-land battle approach where you have all the means available to you, to include NATO-interoperable tanks, close-air support and air defense.REPASS: No, it's not. I think it's doable in the near term. There are up to 8,000 soldiers or so in a brigade, so that's up to 40,000 people in five brigades. I believe the Ukrainians are capable of finding that many soldiers given the current national emergency.
Historically, when a Western military has come up against an army that has been supplied by the Russians, the Russian-backed army has been totally annihilated by an inferior number of forces, as was the case, for instance, during the first Gulf War when the US military destroyed much of Saddam Hussein's army in Kuwait. We know that the Western armaments have a significant qualitative edge over Russian equipment, so numbers and force ratios are skewed when it is Western military equipment up against Russian-made equipment.
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Old 6th May 2022, 09:34
  #5171 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Imagegear
Can anyone confirm whether a Russian Nuke sub was caught on the surface of the Black Sea by a Ukrainian maritime patrol aircraft and that an attack was conducted?

IG
I've not read anything to this effect, however there were rumours circulating earlier than another Russian warship had been attacked, which unfortunately doesn't appear to be true.
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Old 6th May 2022, 09:37
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
I've not read anything to this effect, however there were rumours circulating earlier than another Russian warship had been attacked, which unfortunately doesn't appear to be true.
Update: Credible sources on Twitter now stating that an Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate is on fire, location off the coast where the the Ukrainian border joins that of Romania.
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Old 6th May 2022, 10:03
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Update: Credible sources on Twitter now stating that an Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate is on fire, location off the coast where the the Ukrainian border joins that of Romania.
Named as the Admiral Makarov.

Sister ship Admiral Essen was damaged earlier in the conflict. If confirmed that leaves just one of the three newest vessels in the Black Sea fleet operable.

Edit to add a bit of aviation content, FORTE11 seems to be taking an interest.

https://www.flightradar24.com/FORTE11/2bbf3ce4
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Old 6th May 2022, 10:33
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Could very well be.

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Old 6th May 2022, 10:44
  #5175 (permalink)  
 
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I read a retired Generals idea on how Ukraine could win and it involves tthe UK, US, Germany, Poland and the French each taking a brigade strength of Ukrainians and training them in western techniques and western weaponary then returning them home.
Or just put troops from those nations in Ukrainian uniforms and get the job done quickly and effectively. It's what the Russians would do.
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Old 6th May 2022, 10:45
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There's also an NATO AWACS bird orbiting over eastern Romania. Not sure if this is unusual.
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Old 6th May 2022, 10:51
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Originally Posted by papa_sierra
Could very well be.

Potentially very close to Romanian territorial waters and with a moderate NE wind all night and for the rest of the day. If true, and if she has lost propulsion, then I imagine there will be quite a race to get her under tow...
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Old 6th May 2022, 10:53
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
There's also an NATO AWACS bird orbiting over eastern Romania. Not sure if this is unusual.
and a RAF RC-135W overt & displaying over the Black sea SW of Crimea.

Trying to send a message or get some pictures, perhaps ??
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Old 6th May 2022, 10:54
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Would Admiral Makarov carry nukes?
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Old 6th May 2022, 10:59
  #5180 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Recc
Potentially very close to Romanian territorial waters and with a moderate NE wind all night and for the rest of the day. If true, and if she has lost propulsion, then I imagine there will be quite a race to get her under tow...
Yup it would be a laugh if she drifted into Romania's territorial waters...

I wonder if any western-flagged vessels are standing by to take it under tow if it did?
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