Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Ukraine's amphibious tractors are on immediate standby ....
Must be something significant. Two AWACS, A Rivet Joint (I think) loads of tankers either on station or arriving/leaving. Plus the Grumman UAV. All with transponders on!.
Edit... Yup.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2073007.html
Edit... Yup.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2073007.html
Finding a Kilo in the Black Sea would be a pretty good effort for a force without ASW capability. Not impossible, just not a big likelihood.
SAR modules are available that would fit on the TB2 or other assets that could be deployed with a Ukrainian operation pretty quickly, but the searching is in an area that is pretty difficult for surface contacts such as a snort or an attack periscope. The easiest targeting of the Kilos is in their berth, and Ukraine has both the targeting data and the systems available to do that. Same goes for the Admiral G and her sister skimmers. The use of the Kilos as a mobile platform puts the Kerch bridge back into the conversation, as reloads are likely going to come down from the east side of the Sea of Azov rather than close to contested areas which are now within Ukraines increased artillery range.
It is starting to look like a need to get another replacement admiral of the Black Sea fleet ready for the newly minted one's impending heart attack. Sat photo suggests someone gave someone a bad day.
Another bad day on the pond
SAR modules are available that would fit on the TB2 or other assets that could be deployed with a Ukrainian operation pretty quickly, but the searching is in an area that is pretty difficult for surface contacts such as a snort or an attack periscope. The easiest targeting of the Kilos is in their berth, and Ukraine has both the targeting data and the systems available to do that. Same goes for the Admiral G and her sister skimmers. The use of the Kilos as a mobile platform puts the Kerch bridge back into the conversation, as reloads are likely going to come down from the east side of the Sea of Azov rather than close to contested areas which are now within Ukraines increased artillery range.
It is starting to look like a need to get another replacement admiral of the Black Sea fleet ready for the newly minted one's impending heart attack. Sat photo suggests someone gave someone a bad day.
Another bad day on the pond
Last edited by fdr; 6th May 2022 at 11:57.
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re the latest ship, IR pic on this site does not show, but one on Twitter from them does
https://intermarium24.com/index.php?id=27
https://intermarium24.com/index.php?id=27
I read a retired Generals idea on how Ukraine could win and it involves tthe UK, US, Germany, Poland and the French each taking a brigade strength of Ukrainians and training them in western techniques and western weaponary then returning them home.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/04/o...iew/index.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/04/o...iew/index.html
The leaders in Moscow deny any knowledge of what is happening. If it isn't propaganda then it is incredibly poor leadership. Take your pick. I'll say both.
Izvestija:
The Kremlin does not have information disseminated in the media about an alleged attack on a Russian warship in the Black Sea. This was announced on Friday, May 6, by the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov.
“We do not have such information,” he told reporters.
Izvestija:
The Kremlin does not have information disseminated in the media about an alleged attack on a Russian warship in the Black Sea. This was announced on Friday, May 6, by the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov.
“We do not have such information,” he told reporters.
Black Sea seems to be unhealthy for Russian sailors at present. Whatever the T-72's and Russian oil farms have got seems to be contagious.
This is the same satellite system that picked up the Moskva being prepped as a marine park. As far as Moscow not knowing anything about it, they won't find many willing admirals to go visit Count Vlad and indicate that his 9th May celebrations may have additional spare sailers for the march past, the off watch. Lefortovo is going to be like a flag officer retirement camp soon. Still, hope the crew get picked up soon enough, and dropped off in Odessa, they will be better treated there than in a Siberian labor camp.
Last edited by fdr; 6th May 2022 at 12:32.
ARTEMIS having a peek as well?
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=a60693
From Sept. 2020: https://theaviationist.com/2020/09/2...-and-abkhazia/
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=a60693
From Sept. 2020: https://theaviationist.com/2020/09/2...-and-abkhazia/
Coincidence?
"Newly released footage of a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drone striking a Russian Tor SAM system on Snake Island"
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
"Newly released footage of a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drone striking a Russian Tor SAM system on Snake Island"
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
Coincidence?
"Newly released footage of a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drone striking a Russian Tor SAM system on Snake Island"
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
"Newly released footage of a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drone striking a Russian Tor SAM system on Snake Island"
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3
The leaders in Moscow deny any knowledge of what is happening. If it isn't propaganda then it is incredibly poor leadership. Take your pick. I'll say both.
Izvestija:
The Kremlin does not have information disseminated in the media about an alleged attack on a Russian warship in the Black Sea. This was announced on Friday, May 6, by the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov.
“We do not have such information,” he told reporters.
Izvestija:
The Kremlin does not have information disseminated in the media about an alleged attack on a Russian warship in the Black Sea. This was announced on Friday, May 6, by the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov.
“We do not have such information,” he told reporters.
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Admiral Makarov is awfully close the the Romanian waters if this is correct
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-may-...e-russian-navy
It looks like the RAF Rivet joint has popped over to have a look from his normal Black Sea location too
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1522558260578074626
.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-may-...e-russian-navy
It looks like the RAF Rivet joint has popped over to have a look from his normal Black Sea location too
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1522558260578074626
.
Last edited by NutLoose; 6th May 2022 at 13:21.
Admiral Makarov is awfully close the the Romanian waters if this is correct
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-may-...e-russian-navy
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/6-may-...e-russian-navy
There does seem to be above normal NATO ISR presence in the area, possibly an indication that this map is correct.
The choices for Russia may be even more fundamental.
By any measure, Russia lost in deaths on the battlefield no less than 18% of their deployed troops. That is just those that are reported to be in body bags. looking at likely loss rates per confirmed vehicle loss gives similar losses. Adding the probable injury levels, the highest levels of 2:1 injury to fatality give 54% of the deployed troops as being ineffective. A minimum injury to fatality rate of 1:1 gives total losses of 36% of all deployed combat troops.
By any measure, Russia lost in deaths on the battlefield no less than 18% of their deployed troops. That is just those that are reported to be in body bags. looking at likely loss rates per confirmed vehicle loss gives similar losses. Adding the probable injury levels, the highest levels of 2:1 injury to fatality give 54% of the deployed troops as being ineffective. A minimum injury to fatality rate of 1:1 gives total losses of 36% of all deployed combat troops.
The historical combat [or civil disaster] ratio gets near to 3:1 does it not? Both World Wars throw up similar figures for many scenarios.
British army, all arms of service, Great War:
[The teeth arms in actual combat were nearer 4:1]
1914 : 1 killed to 2.39 wounded ( officers, 1 to 1.24 ; men, 1 to 2.47 )
1915 : 1 killed to 2.83 wounded ( officers, 1 to 1.77; men, 1 to 2.89 )
1916 : 1 killed to 2.69 wounded ( officers, 1 to 2.22; men , 1 to 2.72 )
1917 : 1 killed to 2.43 wounded ( officers, 1 to 1.78 ; men, 1 to 2.46 )
1918 : 1 killed to 3.04 wounded ( officers, 1 to 2.72 ; men, 1 to 3.06 )
Last edited by langleybaston; 6th May 2022 at 15:28. Reason: addendum
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Might or might not be the ship burning. Not confirmed.
The video circulating
The video circulating