Is Ukraine about to have a war?
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Here's a rather straight forward approach. Efficient though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hr-xBtVU4lg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hr-xBtVU4lg
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Combine that with the emerging messages about the local Russian oblasts being very unhappy with the central Putin war (ehhh, special operation) policy, and it could very well be, these are early signals of a secondary break-up of Russia (after the demise of the USSR/CCCP itself).
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Judging by the recruiting offices going up this could be locals against the war, the ones out east produce missiles and rockets plus fuel explosives for them, the shopping centre may have just been a genuine fire.
It’s allegedly reported Ukrainian heli pilots are being trained to fly western helicopters in Germany..
..
It’s allegedly reported Ukrainian heli pilots are being trained to fly western helicopters in Germany..
..
Last edited by NutLoose; 4th May 2022 at 22:11.
Judging by the recruiting offices going up this could be locals against the war, the ones out east produce missiles and rockets plus fuel explosives for them, the shopping centre may have just been a genuine fire.
It’s allegedly reported Ukrainian heli pilots are being trained to fly western helicopters in Germany..https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1521893015626866690
..
It’s allegedly reported Ukrainian heli pilots are being trained to fly western helicopters in Germany..https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1521893015626866690
..
Apaches?
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/photos_182865.htm
Blowing Bridges and Diesel Locomotives
Back in WWII B-26's were tasked with blowing bridges preparatory to the Normandy invasion. After it was noted that dropped spans were quickly put back in service, emphasis shifted to taking out abutments which took much longer to replace.
RF has gotten a bit clever lately and is now reported targeting power stations supplying the railroads bringing western weapons to the frontlines. How many diesel locomotives can be sourced in Europe?
RF has gotten a bit clever lately and is now reported targeting power stations supplying the railroads bringing western weapons to the frontlines. How many diesel locomotives can be sourced in Europe?
Own Goals
The internal attacks within Russia suggest that there is some level of resistance to the Wars of Putin. The conscripts don't agree with Putin apparently. Remarkable that even as a non-combatant state Belarus had interdiction of Russian troop movements from its own people angry about all things Russian or Lukashenko. It then comes as a surprise that while Russia is losing colossal levels of it's military in the field against the committed defenders of Ukraine, on the 4th of May, Lukashenko starts positioning his troops to commence aggression against Ukraine. That seems to be a career-limiting move, Lukashenko lasting more than a week after committing Belarus troops to a war which his own people disagree with would be surprising. His move is a complication to Ukraine, and gives an impetus for strike capability from the west that Ukraine can use to push back. Ukraine maintains forces in place to repel Belarus, and this time, they already have the majority of the local population on their side in removing Lukashenko from the table. How the Belarus armed forces will proceed will be interesting. A revolt against Minsk is not impossible.
Belarus has 2 full strength and 2 part strength mech brigades, and the majority of its 46,000 man military are 18-month term conscripts. Conscripts are already showing their opinion of Putin in burning down recruitment offices and refusing to fight, surrendering, and attacking the blocking troops. Conscript armies come with big risks, and Lukashenko may be about to achieve what his population has wanted for some time, a Belarus without Lukashenko.
Aviation wise, the Belarus airforce has some 29s and 25s, and some Mi-8 & 24s.
Belarus has 2 full strength and 2 part strength mech brigades, and the majority of its 46,000 man military are 18-month term conscripts. Conscripts are already showing their opinion of Putin in burning down recruitment offices and refusing to fight, surrendering, and attacking the blocking troops. Conscript armies come with big risks, and Lukashenko may be about to achieve what his population has wanted for some time, a Belarus without Lukashenko.
Aviation wise, the Belarus airforce has some 29s and 25s, and some Mi-8 & 24s.
WHAT TO DO ??
With the war now in it’s 3rd month and in danger of escalating to armageddon it is time for the WEST to face the FACTS - no matter how unpleasant they are
Negotiate a peace treaty NOW and one in which Russia is NOT seen as the loser.
GIVE the DONBAS region to Russia.
Let’s face it they are NEVER going to leave this area.
Ensure that UKRAINE has access to the sea via a long coastline which includes Odessa.
AFTER the war ends NATO can make darn sure that they are not caught with their knickers down again by STRENGTH and aid to Ukraine and the other threatened border states .
RUSSIA must be shown that further expansionism is NOT to their advantage.
GERMANY will not repeat its catastrophic error of relying on Russian-energy.
RUSSIA will eventually suffer from adverse world opinion and lose influence.
RUSSIA will realise that they have gained NOTHING and LOST a lot
and PUTIN will be unelected.
EUROPE can then return gradually to OSTPOLITIK and the world can keep spinning. The perceived LOSS OF FACE will be superceded by general all round RELIEF .
This is not APPEASEMENT or DEFEATISM but COMMON SENSE.
I have a feeling that given WHERE WE ARE , CHURCHILL ( and TRUMP ) would negotiate something similar.
No-one suggests that this will be EASY ,particularly for the UKRAINE resistance HEROES ,but can anyone come up with a BETTER solution?
With the war now in it’s 3rd month and in danger of escalating to armageddon it is time for the WEST to face the FACTS - no matter how unpleasant they are
- There is no way that Ukraine can WIN the war - prolonged western help will only prolong the agony.
- The chance of PUTIN being overthrown from within is next to NIL His popularity has increased since the war started.
- ECONOMIC sanctions will NOT work.
- NATO is seen as the enemy - Russians do not want more American missiles on their borders.Bellicose threats of expansion only throws petrol on the flames!
- There is NO danger of Russia attacking a strong NATO country. Why would they?
Negotiate a peace treaty NOW and one in which Russia is NOT seen as the loser.
GIVE the DONBAS region to Russia.
Let’s face it they are NEVER going to leave this area.
Ensure that UKRAINE has access to the sea via a long coastline which includes Odessa.
AFTER the war ends NATO can make darn sure that they are not caught with their knickers down again by STRENGTH and aid to Ukraine and the other threatened border states .
RUSSIA must be shown that further expansionism is NOT to their advantage.
GERMANY will not repeat its catastrophic error of relying on Russian-energy.
RUSSIA will eventually suffer from adverse world opinion and lose influence.
RUSSIA will realise that they have gained NOTHING and LOST a lot
and PUTIN will be unelected.
EUROPE can then return gradually to OSTPOLITIK and the world can keep spinning. The perceived LOSS OF FACE will be superceded by general all round RELIEF .
This is not APPEASEMENT or DEFEATISM but COMMON SENSE.
I have a feeling that given WHERE WE ARE , CHURCHILL ( and TRUMP ) would negotiate something similar.
No-one suggests that this will be EASY ,particularly for the UKRAINE resistance HEROES ,but can anyone come up with a BETTER solution?
Last edited by T28B; 5th May 2022 at 15:39. Reason: spacing errors fixed
Easy: Russia has to retreat and pay for rebuilding Ukraine.
I think there are much bigger strategies at play here.
The US has realised it can badly weaken the Russian conventional military, possibly for decades, perhaps even permanently.
So it's fighting a proxy war.
NATO is quite happy to join in with the same goal.
Lloyd Austin has said as much.
It's a proxy war I agree with entirely by the way... all power to our Ukrainian friends.
We supply the weapons - they fight like demons - and Russia's conventional armed forces exhaust their ammunition, are turned into scrap metal and can only wave the big nuclear stick in future.
The US has realised it can badly weaken the Russian conventional military, possibly for decades, perhaps even permanently.
So it's fighting a proxy war.
NATO is quite happy to join in with the same goal.
Lloyd Austin has said as much.
It's a proxy war I agree with entirely by the way... all power to our Ukrainian friends.
We supply the weapons - they fight like demons - and Russia's conventional armed forces exhaust their ammunition, are turned into scrap metal and can only wave the big nuclear stick in future.
Evertonian
Like allowing them to have Crimea? That went well.
"Mildly" Eccentric Stardriver
mahogany bob; methinks you underestimate the people of Ukraine. After what they have been through these last few months, they are not about to concede territory. You also misread Churchill. You seem to suggest he would have surrendered the Channel Islands and the Shetlands to Germany, giving them an encirclement of Britain. Don't think so.
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I think there are much bigger strategies at play here.
The US has realised it can badly weaken the Russian conventional military, possibly for decades, perhaps even permanently.
So it's fighting a proxy war.
NATO is quite happy to join in with the same goal.
Lloyd Austin has said as much.
It's a proxy war I agree with entirely by the way... all power to our Ukrainian friends.
We supply the weapons - they fight like demons - and Russia's conventional armed forces exhaust their ammunition, are turned into scrap metal and can only wave the big nuclear stick in future.
The US has realised it can badly weaken the Russian conventional military, possibly for decades, perhaps even permanently.
So it's fighting a proxy war.
NATO is quite happy to join in with the same goal.
Lloyd Austin has said as much.
It's a proxy war I agree with entirely by the way... all power to our Ukrainian friends.
We supply the weapons - they fight like demons - and Russia's conventional armed forces exhaust their ammunition, are turned into scrap metal and can only wave the big nuclear stick in future.
Use all the Western located old-style Russian military equipment in Ukraine to exhaust and deplete the Russian army. Then come in with a coalition of Western forces (not Nato) and roll-up the Russians in Ukraine. Potentially even take-over Moscow itself. Roll up Belarus and bring a democracy there, the people want it (in contrast to all the other Western invasions in ME/NA).
Somewhere during that process, Putin will likely die of his cancer. Which might be expedited, when the narcotics and Oxygen tubes are swapped, just before his upcoming surgery.
Putin did pull that much power to himself, there will be nobody "in-charge", when Putin dies (see the plans to have the FSB head temporary replace Putin during his surgery, instead of the legal required prime minister). As such, after Putin, nobody will be prepared to push the Nukes button (apart from the manual background process involved to extend the button push into a missile launch also refusing to act).
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Whenever you give the bully (part of) what it wants, the bullying goes on. So, better stop the bully.
Don't forget, we have another Authoritarian bully in China, reaching for eternal power, equally eager to invade another free country and claiming all the Southern China Sea as its territorial coastal waters. There is only one option to stop such a bully: Show how Russia gets destroyed as a consequence of its aggression (just like Germany with WWII).
Oh, and use the confiscated Russian possessions outside Russia, as well as the Russian natural resources sales, to rebuild Ukraine according to Western quality standards.