Own Goals
The internal attacks within Russia suggest that there is some level of resistance to the Wars of Putin. The conscripts don't agree with Putin apparently. Remarkable that even as a non-combatant state Belarus had interdiction of Russian troop movements from its own people angry about all things Russian or Lukashenko. It then comes as a surprise that while Russia is losing colossal levels of it's military in the field against the committed defenders of Ukraine, on the 4th of May, Lukashenko starts positioning his troops to commence aggression against Ukraine. That seems to be a career-limiting move, Lukashenko lasting more than a week after committing Belarus troops to a war which his own people disagree with would be surprising. His move is a complication to Ukraine, and gives an impetus for strike capability from the west that Ukraine can use to push back. Ukraine maintains forces in place to repel Belarus, and this time, they already have the majority of the local population on their side in removing Lukashenko from the table. How the Belarus armed forces will proceed will be interesting. A revolt against Minsk is not impossible.
Belarus has 2 full strength and 2 part strength mech brigades, and the majority of its 46,000 man military are 18-month term conscripts. Conscripts are already showing their opinion of Putin in burning down recruitment offices and refusing to fight, surrendering, and attacking the blocking troops. Conscript armies come with big risks, and Lukashenko may be about to achieve what his population has wanted for some time, a Belarus without Lukashenko.
Aviation wise, the Belarus airforce has some 29s and 25s, and some Mi-8 & 24s.