Is Ukraine about to have a war?
The T-90 is also a tank sold to India. I think that the M model (or a variant of it, MS?) has been around for a few years. I suspect that the Indian Army, as well as the Pakistani Army and Airforce, will take a keen interest in the performance of this model and see what applies to their own situations. 
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You seem to be confusing justification (why does one do this?) with operations (what transpires once one does this?) which renders your response irrelevant to the point I was making. It certainly harms local support for, or incites local opposition to, the "liberating" forces but does not change the political justification (how ever substantive or thin) for why they were sent there.
While I would have hoped that this kind of behavior by the troops would result in disciplinary action / charges, I am not confident that this will come about from the RU side, but more likely will play out like how Milosevic got called to account (ultimately) in The Hague.
While I would have hoped that this kind of behavior by the troops would result in disciplinary action / charges, I am not confident that this will come about from the RU side, but more likely will play out like how Milosevic got called to account (ultimately) in The Hague.
They justified the reasons they were going in, then promptly attacked and raped those they used as the justification, yes it may have been operational but in doing that they destroyed any semblance of a justification and any credibility they may have had. That was the point I was trying to get across.
FWIW, as I read the political rhetoric coming out of Moscow, their move into Eastern Ukraine was (in part) justified within the broader self defense principle for those Russians in (Donbas, etc) who were in conflict with the government (depicted in the rhetoric as Nazis) in Kiev. If you look at the "we must help oppressed minorities/peoples/populations" justifications used in the last 40 years, you see in Kosovo, in Bosnia, in Somalia, in Kuwait (just to name a few) that same style of justification. (Granted, each case has its own nuances and details).
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
BBC UKR News reporting that MLRS/HIMARS has not only been received but is now deployed in country with a 300Km range.
Last edited by ORAC; 5th May 2022 at 20:51.
It is lawful for Christian men, at the commandment of the Magistrate, to wear weapons, and serve in the wars.
USSR leaving Afghanistan was a different sort of political and cultural thing than 'restoring Russian lands/borders/people to Russia.' The Russians might be willing to pay a higher price to 'get some of their land back into Russia' which looks to be a discrete and well supported (by the Russian political rhetoric, I mean) war aim.
Depends on what victory conditions are. Keeping, or getting back, Mariupol would seem to me to be a Ukraine victory condition. Land bridge to Crimea and annex parts of Eastern Ukraine seems to be a Russian victory condition...but I am estimating here. There may be lesser included cases inside Russian or Ukrainian policy circles that don't look anything like that.
One thing is fairly certain though, Russia will now have great difficulty achieving the "de-nazification" of Ukraine as stated at the outset.
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......
His health may fail, but any assassination attempt need not be sponsored in the West. He has his own problems within, leave it to them.
On this aspect, how much power he has centralized in his own person (the modern day Tsar Vladimir, you might say) seems to be true, which will make for chaos once he's ousted or offed, and we saw how that played out as USSR fell apart. (heck, when Saddam was removed, the civil war in Iraq started and it went on for some years despite coalition efforts to arrest it)
......
His health may fail, but any assassination attempt need not be sponsored in the West. He has his own problems within, leave it to them.
On this aspect, how much power he has centralized in his own person (the modern day Tsar Vladimir, you might say) seems to be true, which will make for chaos once he's ousted or offed, and we saw how that played out as USSR fell apart. (heck, when Saddam was removed, the civil war in Iraq started and it went on for some years despite coalition efforts to arrest it)
......
Let me explain: The moment Russia starts a (kind of) civil war after the end of the Putin rein, they are focused internally combatting each-other and won't have time or energy to be nasty towards their neighboring countries.
And, it'll show the Russian population that power should not be tied to one person, since when that person perishes, hell breaks loose.
Oh, don't drink, when you write, your texts are full of alcohol spots and unsteady phrases.
Perhaps it should be clear, self defence (as organised by the Royally appointed magistrates)
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Add to that, that probably large parts of the civilians are moved elsewhere in Russia as already being enforced in Donetsk/Luhansk (and later on replaced by natural Russian "Rebuilding the country !!!"), and it is not that difficult.
Put aside your Western mindset, when determining whether something like this is possible or not. Be creative like the Russians are with these things, and realizing control becomes much easier (though also very nasty for all involved, except the "leaders").
From Telegram:
"In Mariupol, Ukrainian road signs are being removed and signs in Russian are being attached. In principle, this was expected. But look how fast they did it. The signs are clearly drawn in advance. The main question is, who are these people in orange vests, local Mariupol residents or visitors?"
I have a clearer understanding than you, mate, and I do not indulge in your fantasies.
We have already seen one case of what can happen (when the Wall fell): a civil war, and the break up of the Soviet Union. This iteration (if / when Putin falls from power) doesn't have that (USSR break up) as a relief valve, and so the outcome of that internal struggle is unclear. Heck, who the players are - those positioned and eligible to step into the power vacuum - is likely to change in the near to mid term.
You are the one who asserted that (some unnamed) Western nations ought to roll to Moscow. That's a fantasy.
Yes, while they sort out their internal problems they'll be less of a problem for their neighbors, I never said otherwise.
For you to presume that "the Russian population" needs to be shown {something that you dream up} only amplifies your need to clean the fog off of your glasses. Whatever solution comes in Russia, after Tsar Vladimir is unseated (be that death via a knife, long life, disease, or mishap) needs to be organic to Russia in order to be lasting - it needs to grow from the ground up.
And on a more humorous note, given today's date, lighten the heck up.
We have already seen one case of what can happen (when the Wall fell): a civil war, and the break up of the Soviet Union. This iteration (if / when Putin falls from power) doesn't have that (USSR break up) as a relief valve, and so the outcome of that internal struggle is unclear. Heck, who the players are - those positioned and eligible to step into the power vacuum - is likely to change in the near to mid term.
You are the one who asserted that (some unnamed) Western nations ought to roll to Moscow. That's a fantasy.
Yes, while they sort out their internal problems they'll be less of a problem for their neighbors, I never said otherwise.
For you to presume that "the Russian population" needs to be shown {something that you dream up} only amplifies your need to clean the fog off of your glasses. Whatever solution comes in Russia, after Tsar Vladimir is unseated (be that death via a knife, long life, disease, or mishap) needs to be organic to Russia in order to be lasting - it needs to grow from the ground up.
And on a more humorous note, given today's date, lighten the heck up.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 5th May 2022 at 20:58.
I appreciate the difference and the fact that they have taken twice the casualties already confirms that. However, {0} surely the number of casualties cannot be kept from the public indefinitely, especially as they rise,{1} and there must come a point where the question will be asked, "Is the product worth the price" {2} and there will be pressure to stop fighting. {3} It is not a war for existence from the Russian perspective no matter how hard they sell it.
As to point 3, while we see it differently from the outside (I have posted elsewhere an opinion that this war wasn't necessary) I am not sure how it is seen from within and by how many.
I suspect that point 3 is directly linked to points 0 through 2, so as those go so may the message (being pushed up hill) perhaps get stronger. But the choke point becomes this: do the ruling class listen to voices from way down the hill? It's hard enough to get heard in more open societies sometimes, isn't it?
Spoiler
One thing is fairly certain though, Russia will now have great difficulty achieving the "de-nazification" of Ukraine as stated at the outset.
Your other points certainly raise some hard questions: what will the people who have the power to make a settlement after a cease fire settle for? For example, if during the next month Ukraine is able to mount a counter offensive and take back some (more) of their lost territory, does that not put them in a stronger negotiating position once a cease fire is agreed to? But from the other side, what if the Russians complete that land bridge to Crimea? Does that strengthen their hand, or does that just mean that Ukraine never comes to a table for talks?
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From Telegram:
"In Mariupol, Ukrainian road signs are being removed and signs in Russian are being attached. In principle, this was expected. But look how fast they did it. The signs are clearly drawn in advance. The main question is, who are these people in orange vests, local Mariupol residents or visitors?"
Widescreen posted
Is there any chance of your translating that into coherent English, or don't they teach that in the troll factories?
Because the suppression moves from a military stronghold to social suppression and propaganda. Just like it is done in Russia itself.
Add to that, that probably large parts of the civilians are moved elsewhere in Russia as already being enforced in Donetsk/Luhansk (and later on replaced by natural Russian "Rebuilding the country !!!"), and it is not that difficult.
Put aside your Western mindset, when determining whether something like this is possible or not. Be creative like the Russians are with these things, and realizing control becomes much easier (though also very nasty for all involved, except the "leaders").
Add to that, that probably large parts of the civilians are moved elsewhere in Russia as already being enforced in Donetsk/Luhansk (and later on replaced by natural Russian "Rebuilding the country !!!"), and it is not that difficult.
Put aside your Western mindset, when determining whether something like this is possible or not. Be creative like the Russians are with these things, and realizing control becomes much easier (though also very nasty for all involved, except the "leaders").
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Germany and The Netherlands to supply PZH 2000 155mm artillery, these are top of the range ultra modern artillery systems that can outrange anything Russia is operating. Clever too, they must be game changers, just let’s hope the Ukrainians surround them with stingers etc.
https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_may_2022_global_security_army_industry/germany_approves_the_delivery_of_7_pzh_2000_155mm_howitzers_ to_ukraine.html
https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/pzh2000
Amongst other capabilities, the engagement of moving sea targets with precise single shots, was very successfully demonstrated in Sweden in 1996, which opened up an entirely new operational spectrum for the classic tube artillery. Successful trials, including the demonstration of an MRSI capability in 1997 (firing different shell-charge combinations from one gun so that the shells impact the same target at the same time) as well as effective range demonstrations of > 40 km, when the system was on the shortlist for Greece, underpin the demanding claim to establish the PzH 2000 as the future NATO-wide 155 mm/52 cal standard gun. The PzH 2000 meets all international requirements on a tube artillery system and may be regarded as the top product of the German defense industry, with KMW as the system lead contractor
https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/pzh2000
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Russian campaign assessment as of the 5th may.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...sessment-may-5
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...sessment-may-5
then they have to make the choice, keep thier massively stupidly oversized nuclear force and have no money to rebuild the conventional force. Or take the money from the nuclear force to rebuild the destroyed conventional force
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Because the suppression moves from a military stronghold to social suppression and propaganda. Just like it is done in Russia itself.
Add to that, that probably large parts of the civilians are moved elsewhere in Russia as already being enforced in Donetsk/Luhansk (and later on replaced by natural Russian "Rebuilding the country !!!"), and it is not that difficult.
Put aside your Western mindset, when determining whether something like this is possible or not. Be creative like the Russians are with these things, and realizing control becomes much easier (though also very nasty for all involved, except the "leaders").
Add to that, that probably large parts of the civilians are moved elsewhere in Russia as already being enforced in Donetsk/Luhansk (and later on replaced by natural Russian "Rebuilding the country !!!"), and it is not that difficult.
Put aside your Western mindset, when determining whether something like this is possible or not. Be creative like the Russians are with these things, and realizing control becomes much easier (though also very nasty for all involved, except the "leaders").
Retired US major general: What it will take for the Ukrainians to win
BERGEN: What do you make of the new Russian commander in Ukraine, Gen. Aleksandr Dvornikov?
REPASS: He is a dyed-in-the-wool, fire-based, attrition warfare guy. He's not a maneuver warfare guy. He's going to do everything that he's done all his life, which is blow up and destroy everything in his path, and then send the troops in. Those troops will forcefully evacuate Ukrainian citizens to ensure there is no potential for a resistance movement in the land bridge from Russia through Donbas to Crimea.
REPASS: He is a dyed-in-the-wool, fire-based, attrition warfare guy. He's not a maneuver warfare guy. He's going to do everything that he's done all his life, which is blow up and destroy everything in his path, and then send the troops in. Those troops will forcefully evacuate Ukrainian citizens to ensure there is no potential for a resistance movement in the land bridge from Russia through Donbas to Crimea.
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I have a clearer understanding than you, mate, and I do not indulge in your fantasies.
We have already seen one case of what can happen (when the Wall fell): a civil war, and the break up of the Soviet Union. This iteration (if / when Putin falls from power) doesn't have that (USSR break up) as a relief valve, and so the outcome of that internal struggle is unclear. Heck, who the players are - those positioned and eligible to step into the power vacuum - is likely to change in the near to mid term.
You are the one who asserted that (some unnamed) Western nations ought to roll to Moscow. That's a fantasy.
Yes, while they sort out their internal problems they'll be less of a problem for their neighbors, I never said otherwise.
For you to presume that "the Russian population" needs to be shown {something that you dream up} only amplifies your need to clean the fog off of your glasses. Whatever solution comes in Russia, after Tsar Vladimir is unseated (be that death via a knife, long life, disease, or mishap) needs to be organic to Russia in order to be lasting - it needs to grow from the ground up.
And on a more humorous note, given today's date, lighten the heck up.
We have already seen one case of what can happen (when the Wall fell): a civil war, and the break up of the Soviet Union. This iteration (if / when Putin falls from power) doesn't have that (USSR break up) as a relief valve, and so the outcome of that internal struggle is unclear. Heck, who the players are - those positioned and eligible to step into the power vacuum - is likely to change in the near to mid term.
You are the one who asserted that (some unnamed) Western nations ought to roll to Moscow. That's a fantasy.
Yes, while they sort out their internal problems they'll be less of a problem for their neighbors, I never said otherwise.
For you to presume that "the Russian population" needs to be shown {something that you dream up} only amplifies your need to clean the fog off of your glasses. Whatever solution comes in Russia, after Tsar Vladimir is unseated (be that death via a knife, long life, disease, or mishap) needs to be organic to Russia in order to be lasting - it needs to grow from the ground up.
And on a more humorous note, given today's date, lighten the heck up.