Is Ukraine about to have a war?
The MiG-21 is a very easy and pleasant flying aircraft, everything that the MiG-15 was not. It is able to be fixed with a hammer and crowbar mainly, and you can probably go to most museums and fill it up with gas 'n go. Early ones got pretty squirrelly at high speed down low, but the later versions like the ones that the Romanians fly were good aircraft. Between an A-4/F4 or a MiG-21, the MiG will still get airborne and won't need much care. The A-4 is still a neat plane, but it was a surprise to find the 21 had some systems that were much better designed. It isn't going to survive above 100', and probably going to still have issues below that. it has limited ammo for the cannon, and getting to any height that will allow anything other than a SNEB at an unseen target would indeed be high premium, flying low level and firing rockets will frag the plane if it is fortunate enough to hit anything. About the same as flopping into the area in a Mi-8 or Mi-17.
DJI drones are aviation... kind of, and give real-time targeting and directed ordnance on target. The one thing that civil versions miss is an image L/L output, but that could be done with the info that exists from the drone already if someone wants to do some good work for the Blue 'n Red. Laser is nice, sure, but you have AHRS attitude, and mag heading (or even better GPS track and video offset, so that gives the geometry, add the GIS terrain map and you have a good L/L of the center of the video. Gotta be better than calling estimates of shot fall correction. Coordinated, accurate strikes on multiple targets would help get the "Russians, go home". They don't seem to be taking the hint yet.
We look at all problems with our own heuristic bias', the builder sees the need for a hammer, the plumber needs a wrench for the same job. Asymmetric responses need effective solutions in a timely manner, and that means M1A2, A-10C's, AH-1Z, etc are way further out than the current horizon. The guys in the field need to increase the accuracy and effectiveness of their fire, and that means targetting accuracy is needed. More T-72's give more targets for the Reds.
Glad it isn't my decision; I offered improved TB2 performance, that is at least something.
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Around 90% of the ORYX recorded cases show supporting evidence that indicates a specific vehicle. Some are strike video that shows the loss but doesn't preclude a double count at a later date, unless the area remains in the hands of the other side.
I have a question for those that have to play music really really loud: a number of reported arty strikes by indirect fire spotted by drones show munition detonation that has a linear fragmentation pattern, much like the ATW's. The fragmentation appears to be before and after the target. Doesn't seem to be consistent with H.E. or A.P., or HESH, or HEAT; wondering what detonates with such a pattern.
I have a question for those that have to play music really really loud: a number of reported arty strikes by indirect fire spotted by drones show munition detonation that has a linear fragmentation pattern, much like the ATW's. The fragmentation appears to be before and after the target. Doesn't seem to be consistent with H.E. or A.P., or HESH, or HEAT; wondering what detonates with such a pattern.
We look at all problems with our own heuristic bias', the builder sees the need for a hammer, the plumber needs a wrench for the same job. Asymmetric responses need effective solutions in a timely manner, and that means M1A2, A-10C's, AH-1Z, etc are way further out than the current horizon. The guys in the field need to increase the accuracy and effectiveness of their fire, and that means targetting accuracy is needed. More T-72's give more targets for the Reds.
Personally I'd let every western arms manufacturer supply what they think would work i.e. make eastern Ukraine the mother-of-all testing grounds. This is a golden opportunity for them to get the coveted 'combat proven' marketing strap-line for whatever they supply.
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Theres loyalty for you.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Officially from the Ukrainian Air Force:
Ukraine has not been provided with any new aircraft. It was provided with spare parts and components to enable more hardware for war.
Ukraine has not been provided with any new aircraft. It was provided with spare parts and components to enable more hardware for war.
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Is it me or does this look like the USAF C-17 possibly visited Macrahanish?
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(One's operational limit may then hinge upon crew fatigue factors, fuel, or armaments like missiles, bullets, etc).
Clarification from the Ukrainians re "additional" airframes:
They will be able to outrun the Russian soldiers.
The continued failure of the Russian military is of considerable interest. Here are a couple of enlightening takes on the matter:
best or worst of both worlds
and
why is Russian army so weak?
best or worst of both worlds
and
why is Russian army so weak?
Very interesting study updated on 21st March 2022 with the title "Russia's Nuclear Weapons: Doctrine, Forces and Modernization"
Long read but it gives answers to the launch command structure, doctrine and different views on why Russia wouldn't use them and on the other hand why they might.
Also, regarding the earlier discussion on Kaliningrad this study states that there are nuclear weapons there (see charts at the end).
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/R45861.pdf
Long read but it gives answers to the launch command structure, doctrine and different views on why Russia wouldn't use them and on the other hand why they might.
Also, regarding the earlier discussion on Kaliningrad this study states that there are nuclear weapons there (see charts at the end).
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/R45861.pdf
they were a the eropean service hub for them, they most definately have the technical support, spare parts are the question and pilots would be test pilots not combat rated. Also the aircraft have israeli systems. Cant imagine they would allow the transfer to ukraine
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I don't understand all this clamour regarding supplying mothballed MBTs to Ukraine. The likes of a Leopard 1 would be a death trap in a modern battlefield. I think the Brits and Australians plan to supply ex-Afghan stock is much more appropriate, given the way the Ukrainians have set themselves up (i.e. smaller unit actions aimed primarily at interdicting Russian supply lines).
Personally I'd let every western arms manufacturer supply what they think would work i.e. make eastern Ukraine the mother-of-all testing grounds. This is a golden opportunity for them to get the coveted 'combat proven' marketing strap-line for whatever they supply.
Personally I'd let every western arms manufacturer supply what they think would work i.e. make eastern Ukraine the mother-of-all testing grounds. This is a golden opportunity for them to get the coveted 'combat proven' marketing strap-line for whatever they supply.
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If true this is an added bonus
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...iv-region.html
film
Ukraine's SBU State Security Service has discovered a secret warehouse with ammunition and components for military equipment worth $200 million in the Kharkiv region.The SBU reported this on Facebook, Ukrinform reports.
"According to preliminary data, the components available there were intended for damaged Russian equipment, which the enemy was going to repair during the offensive. However, thanks to the resistance of Ukrainian defenders, the occupiers failed to take Kharkiv. Through the efforts of the SBU, the entire seized consignment of weapons will be used to protect our state," the statement said.
Some 60 full tank engines and a large number of spare parts and components for armored vehicles were found during the search and transferred to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense. In addition, 26 guided air-to-air missiles were also found.
The SBU established that the equipment in this warehouse had previously been stolen from arms depots. In the run-up to the invasion, the owners of the warehouse intended to cooperate with the occupiers and provide equipment for the needs of the enemy.
Earlier reports said that the SBU had identified more than 2,500 collaborators since the entry into force of Law No. 2108-IX "On the Introduction of Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts (on the Establishment of Criminal Liability for Collaborative Activities)."
"According to preliminary data, the components available there were intended for damaged Russian equipment, which the enemy was going to repair during the offensive. However, thanks to the resistance of Ukrainian defenders, the occupiers failed to take Kharkiv. Through the efforts of the SBU, the entire seized consignment of weapons will be used to protect our state," the statement said.
Some 60 full tank engines and a large number of spare parts and components for armored vehicles were found during the search and transferred to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense. In addition, 26 guided air-to-air missiles were also found.
The SBU established that the equipment in this warehouse had previously been stolen from arms depots. In the run-up to the invasion, the owners of the warehouse intended to cooperate with the occupiers and provide equipment for the needs of the enemy.
Earlier reports said that the SBU had identified more than 2,500 collaborators since the entry into force of Law No. 2108-IX "On the Introduction of Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts (on the Establishment of Criminal Liability for Collaborative Activities)."
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...iv-region.html
film
They are not intended for the battle front, simply to bolster strength in the north, thus allowing those tanks held back to defend the North to be redeployed East. That then gives them breathing space to train on them, they are pretty contemporary btw with a lot of the Russian tanks in use.
Getting drones that put the drone control outside of the FEBA would reduce the losses for the ISR side and some strike capability, but tactical drone systems such as the converted DJI's or the built for purpose aeroenviron switchblades etc put the operator in the area where they need to be concealed from Red ISR drones. As a force multiplier, drone ISR and drone weapons are a big headache to the other side.
Back in Round II, tank losses from arty were around 12-15% of total losses, suspect that figure is probably still correct today due to the transfer of attack munition to ATW's, but with real-time spotting, that would get a big increase from the historical cause of losses. ATW's are effective, but drone-indirect spotted arty is also proving very effective. indirect fire with accurate spotting isn't the old days, it is a high risk to the upper area of the tank and is now able to be done with pretty high precision looking at the videos of actual drone spotted fire in the last few days. Otherwise, loss rates of the Red team in 2022 seem to be very similar to the washup after the Ardennes offensive, so the logistical tail remains a great soft target to disable an aggressor.
Comment: seems odd that many Red fuel tankers that have been destroyed or damaged did not catch fire... That is from recent images as well around the east.
Last edited by fdr; 21st Apr 2022 at 04:05.