Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 10th Feb 2023, 12:14
  #14501 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Herefordshire
Posts: 863
Received 857 Likes on 335 Posts
Originally Posted by Xeptu
I'm with you, while supporting UKR 100% I'm really concerned about Europe. All the NATO countries clearly are at odds and couldn't organise a root in a brothel. German blocks supply, France is pretty much sitting on their hands and we all know it will be a cold day in hell when France defends Germany. I am truly concerned that if Ukraine falls Europe is in serious trouble. NATO in my view is nothing more than a fantasy and I think Putin knows it.
It has escaped your notice that NATO as an organisation is playing no active part for very good reasons. Some (but not all) assistance is being provided by nations who just happen to be members of NATO. I believe that a great deal of the assistance provided so far and planned for the near future is not being made public for obvious reasons. If Putin were stupid enough to attack a NATO country the response would be of a different magnitude entirely, and I assume he has been told through diplomatic channels precisely what would happen if he did so.
Video Mixdown is online now  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 12:21
  #14502 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,549
Received 3,300 Likes on 1,377 Posts
Originally Posted by ORAC
https://www.euronews.com/2023/02/10/...ongoing-crises

Moldova's prime minister resigns and government collapses, amid ongoing crises

Moldova’s government collapsed Friday as pro-Western Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilitaresigned, adding to a series of crises that have gripped the small nation since Russia invaded its neighbour, Ukraine.

Gavrilita told a news conference that the “time has come for me to announce my resignation” and said no one expected her government, elected in the summer of 2021, “would have to manage so many crises caused by Russian aggression in Ukraine.”…

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...ttempts-a80191

Moldova Accuses Russia of Destabilization Attempts



Moldova's intelligence service said Thursday that Russia was acting to destabilize the former Soviet country, following comments by Ukraine's president that Kyiv had intercepted a plan by Moscow.

"SIS confirms that, both from the information presented by our Ukrainian partner and also from our operative activities, subversive activities with the aim of undermining the Republic of Moldova, of destabilization and violating the public order were identified," Moldova's Intelligence and Security Service said in a statement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, addressing an EU summit earlier on Thursday, told EU heads of government that Kyiv had "intercepted the plan for the destruction of Moldova by Russian intelligence."

"This document shows who, when and how it is going to break the democracy of Moldova and establish control over Moldova," he said, adding that he had immediately warned Chisinau of the threat.
Surely by resigning she is playing into the very hands of those attempting to subvert Moldovian democracy?

..

Last edited by NutLoose; 10th Feb 2023 at 16:05.
NutLoose is offline  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 12:39
  #14503 (permalink)  
fdr
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: 3rd Rock, #29B
Posts: 2,985
Received 926 Likes on 271 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose
Aviation content,

Mi24 hit, but watching it do you think the other was recovering the crew from one that had a technical failure and it was then destroyed?



https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...CxyerW2YgtAAAA

That'll take a lot of blade tape to get back in the air. There was other images yesterday of a helo hovering over a bunch of troops that disappeared in a large fireball, along with all the squishy bits on the ground and inside presumably. Did not look like a MANPAD, but whatever it was, probably left everyone with tinnitus.

ORACs comments on the Russian manpower v Ukrainian, and the associated comments on combat fatigue, this has been an intense combat period for both sides. Russia has severely damaged it's "competent" "profesional" forces for little gain, but has harmed Ukraine on the way through. The training of Russians seems to be as chaotic and nonsensical as their tactics and logistics. When Lord farquard makes his statement that the losses of his army are a price he is prepared to pay, there may be a few of the teams that should be C/S "deadmeat" that may do the maths and work out that the 6th floor window is an attractive option for Lord Farquad to pay the price.

Ukraine has definitely fatigued and weary warfighters, but they have not displayed any loss of resolve, they know what they are fighting for, and they know what the consequences are if they lose resolve. The Russians have no commitment to the fight, and are being slaughtered in battalion and occasionally division levels daily. Ukraine has the fortitude to hold their ground while Russia disintegrates due to the stench that is emitted from the Kremlin. The only thing Ukraine needs is the munitions and systems to do what the west does not have the stomach to do.

On kalibr tracks over Romania, the lord lunacy is unlikely to deliberately result in a NATO nation having a casus belli to provide all materiel in the closet to Ukraine. Transnistria, like much of Russia's claims to territory in contravention of the Alma Ata accords and every other treaty that they have ever signed, is not Russian territory, it remains part of a sovereign nation and eventually needs to sorted out, as that sovereign nation has every liklihood of being a part eventually of an EU and NATO, even with the untidy bits that are the holdover of prior aggressive disregard of treaties by Russia.
fdr is offline  
The following users liked this post:
Old 10th Feb 2023, 14:12
  #14504 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,549
Received 3,300 Likes on 1,377 Posts
The Ukrainians have added to their training, they fire the main gun as well now

NutLoose is offline  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 14:18
  #14505 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: PLanet Earth
Posts: 1,360
Received 115 Likes on 59 Posts
Originally Posted by Xeptu
I am truly concerned that if Ukraine falls Europe is in serious trouble. NATO in my view is nothing more than a fantasy and I think Putin knows it.
You are about to make the same mistake as Putin did: Underestimate the West/NATO. Be assured, NATO has one hell of military capabilities. Even Putin won't be stupid enough to try and lose the majority of his remaining Army/Air Force within a short period of time just to have no other choice than either surrender or go nuclear. No scenario conceivable where he could win anything when attacking NATO directly. And I'm sure, he knows it.
What is going on re Ukraine you make again the same mix up as Putin does: It is NOT NATO who is supporting Ukraine. It is individual states most of which happen to be part of NATO who are supporting Ukraine.

Last edited by henra; 10th Feb 2023 at 14:50.
henra is offline  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 14:39
  #14506 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,155
Received 90 Likes on 53 Posts
These countries support Ukraine to get back all the stolen land. Nobody intends to invade Russia. Russia just needs to U-turn and move out of Ukraine. This is why this is not WW3.
Less Hair is offline  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 14:57
  #14507 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Texas
Age: 65
Posts: 7,359
Received 551 Likes on 348 Posts
Originally Posted by NutLoose
Surelly by resigning she is playing into the very hands of those attempting to subvert Moldovian democracy?
She may not be in a position to do otherwise. Don't know enough about internal Moldova politics to know.
How well versed are you on Moldovan politics?
She might (this is me speculating) be making this move to save herself an accidental fall out of a window.
I will guess that some people in Moldova are more sympathetic towards Russia than others.
She may be getting some warning signals as regards internal problems.

Lonewolf_50 is offline  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 15:22
  #14508 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2022
Location: SW England
Age: 72
Posts: 251
Received 79 Likes on 43 Posts
Originally Posted by ORAC
Ukraine mobilised about a million men after the invasion when they went on a full war footing. They’ve been training since last summer. The absence of any Ukrainian offensive might be indicative of how many troops have been involved in training roles. Plus of course those trained in the UK, Poland etc.

Theyve all been equipped with top line personal equipment by NATO countries, the shortage is artillery and armour - but that’s also been arriving from the USA etc.

They started with around 250K men, so even believing 100K casualties they should have over 1 million trained troops available.

On the other side Russia started with about 200K deployed troops - the cream of their standing army of about 350K. They’ve lost about 200K of those. They’ve mobilised around 300K, but as reported extensively they’ve been fed untrained straight to the front and they are currently losing around 600-1000 a day in their offensives against static Ukrainian defences. That’s about a division a week.

Best estimates are Russia currently has about 300K men dispersed across all fronts in Ukraine with no real training establishment left in Russia. Similarly they have no inflow of new equipment. They have a couple of factories refurbishing old T-64 tanks etc, but no major arms production facilities to expand that with new equipment.

Any further recruits can expect to be also thrown directly t9 the front untrained and ill or unequipped.

Result? A Russian army outnumbered 3 to 1, when it needs to be the other way around to start an offensive and increasing not only outranges but outnumbered in artillery on which they rely.

Putin is expected to start an offensive in the next few days. There are no reports of mass troop or armour concentrations near the front (which would be being decimated by HIMARS), so even a local major breakthrough seems unlikely. If they attack uncoordinated across all fronts their current loses rates can be expected to rocket.
From "Attack by Stratagem", Sun Tzu in the Art of War:

It is the rule in war, if our forces are ten to the enemy's one, to surround him; if five to one, to attack him; if twice as numerous, to divide our army into two.

If equally matched, we can offer battle; if slightly inferior in numbers, we can avoid the enemy; if quite unequal in every way, we can flee from him.

Hence, though an obstinate fight may be made by a small force, in the end it must be captured by the larger force
.
Surprising that a text written about 2,500 years ago remains mostly valid today.
_Agrajag_ is offline  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 15:49
  #14509 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Herefordshire
Posts: 863
Received 857 Likes on 335 Posts
Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
From "Attack by Stratagem", Sun Tzu in the Art of War:
Surprising that a text written about 2,500 years ago remains mostly valid today.
These rules of war are all very well, but they treat warfare as if it were a game of chess. They take no account of the relative leadership, quality, morale and determination of the opposing forces. According to Sun Tzu the Luftwaffe should have won the Battle of Britain and the Paras could not have taken Goose Green. I'm sure there must be many other examples.
Video Mixdown is online now  
The following users liked this post:
Old 10th Feb 2023, 16:25
  #14510 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2022
Location: SW England
Age: 72
Posts: 251
Received 79 Likes on 43 Posts
Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
These rules of war are all very well, but they treat warfare as if it were a game of chess. They take no account of the relative leadership, quality, morale and determination of the opposing forces. According to Sun Tzu the Luftwaffe should have won the Battle of Britain and the Paras could not have taken Goose Green. I'm sure there must be many other examples.
On the contrary, "The Art of War" is still a cornerstone of military tactics today. It was still one of the standard texts 40 years ago when I first read it. Many modern wartime leaders have admitted to reading it. The KGB used tactics from it. Putin has most likely read it. Seems he didn't remember some key elements though. Still worth reading today. From the wiki page about it:

The Department of the Army in the United States, through its Command and General Staff College, lists The Art of War as one example of a book that may be kept at a military unit's library.

The Art of War is listed on the Marine Corps Professional Reading Program (formerly known as the Commandant's Reading List). It is recommended reading for all United States Military Intelligence personnel.

The Art of War is used as instructional material at the US Military Academy at West Point, in the course Military Strategy (470), and it is also recommended reading for Officer cadets at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst. Some notable military leaders have stated the following about Sun Tzu and The Art of War:

"I always kept a copy of The Art of War on my desk." – General Douglas MacArthur, 5 Star General & Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers.

"I have read The Art of War by Sun Tzu. He continues to influence both soldiers & politicians." – General Colin Powell, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, National Security Advisor, and Secretary of State.

According to some authors, the strategy of deception from The Art of War was studied and widely used by the KGB: "I will force the enemy to take our strength for weakness, and our weakness for strength, and thus will turn his strength into weakness".
Most here will know parts of it. They may not realise the origin of these well-known statements though. Bet everyone here has heard a variation on the last paragraph in the "Attack by Stratagem" section:

Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
_Agrajag_ is offline  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 17:55
  #14511 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 33,549
Received 3,300 Likes on 1,377 Posts

NutLoose is offline  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 19:35
  #14512 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: USA
Posts: 261
Received 36 Likes on 11 Posts
Originally Posted by _Agrajag_
On the contrary, "The Art of War" is still a cornerstone of military tactics today. It was still one of the standard texts 40 years ago when I first read it. Many modern wartime leaders have admitted to reading it. The KGB used tactics from it. Putin has most likely read it. Seems he didn't remember some key elements though. Still worth reading today. From the wiki page about it:



Most here will know parts of it. They may not realise the origin of these well-known statements though. Bet everyone here has heard a variation on the last paragraph in the "Attack by Stratagem" section:

have this thread reached peak Walt yet
dagenham is offline  
The following users liked this post:
Old 10th Feb 2023, 19:45
  #14513 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2022
Location: SW England
Age: 72
Posts: 251
Received 79 Likes on 43 Posts
Originally Posted by dagenham
have this thread reached peak Walt yet
Walt who? Can't see it being a Disney production. Not the thing kids would be interested in.

The text was required reading here in the UK. Most likely still is. The copy I have is one from a course at RMCS Shrivenham in the late 1980's. I'm not a great reader by any stretch. It's one of a handful of books I re-read from time to time. Fascinates me how little has changed over the centuries. Seems it's an inherent human condition to wage war. Only so many ways to do it and most were documented two and half thousand years ago.

Try reading it. I guarantee you'll find it applies to events today just as it did centuries ago. It's in the public domain. I've an open source PDF copy I could link to here if anyone's interested. Being a fixer of things electronic for most of my time getting a glimpse of the world of tactics and strategy captured my imagination. No idea why.
_Agrajag_ is offline  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 20:19
  #14514 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Baston
Posts: 3,335
Received 806 Likes on 275 Posts
The Art of War is truly a classic of general applicability.

Counter-intuitively in the context of Ukr coflict, another, more recent, cleassic has much to commend it:

Small Wars: their principles and practice by Callwell. Although written in the context of western imperial expansion and fuzzy-wuzzy bashing gungho days, we find that scale of conflict does little to confound the generalities.

I would add that Callwell's book, readily available, is a wargamer's bible, packed with examples written when partipants were still alive.
langleybaston is offline  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 20:27
  #14515 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
Location: The Swan Downunder
Posts: 1,138
Received 89 Likes on 53 Posts
Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
It has escaped your notice that NATO as an organisation is playing no active part for very good reasons. Some (but not all) assistance is being provided by nations who just happen to be members of NATO. I believe that a great deal of the assistance provided so far and planned for the near future is not being made public for obvious reasons. If Putin were stupid enough to attack a NATO country the response would be of a different magnitude entirely, and I assume he has been told through diplomatic channels precisely what would happen if he did so.

If by NATO you mean the USA then I agree with you if nuclear weapons are used and for no other reason. Europe's problem is that they firmly believe that in the 21st century it is inconceivable that Putin will attack a NATO country, With the exception of France and Poland the rest of you NATO countries are fu#%ing useless.
Xeptu is online now  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 20:42
  #14516 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: The back of beyond
Posts: 2,146
Received 177 Likes on 92 Posts
Originally Posted by Xeptu
If by NATO you mean the USA then I agree with you if nuclear weapons are used and for no other reason. Europe's problem is that they firmly believe that in the 21st century it is inconceivable that Putin will attack a NATO country, With the exception of France and Poland the rest of you NATO countries are fu#%ing useless.
Every one of those fu#%ing useless NATO countries came to the assistance of the US when your country was attacked, and many lost their lives.

How soon you forget.
melmothtw is offline  
The following users liked this post:
Old 10th Feb 2023, 20:47
  #14517 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Denver
Posts: 1,232
Received 21 Likes on 13 Posts
Originally Posted by melmothtw
Every one of those fu#%ing useless NATO countries came to the assistance of the US when your country was attacked, and many lost their lives.

How soon you forget.
Ummm - Xeptu claims to be from "Downunder." What attack on Australia are you referencing?
pattern_is_full is offline  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 20:49
  #14518 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: Rhone-Alpes
Posts: 1,232
Received 349 Likes on 193 Posts
Originally Posted by Xeptu
If by NATO you mean the USA then I agree with you if nuclear weapons are used and for no other reason. Europe's problem is that they firmly believe that in the 21st century it is inconceivable that Putin will attack a NATO country, With the exception of France and Poland the rest of you NATO countries are fu#%ing useless.
I asked before with no answer, so will ask again . Why do you quote France particularly ? Is it because they have nuclear weapons ? is it because they have/are fighting in Africa ? Why quote them and not Britain* which has the same "qualities " ?

* I am not asking this out of any kind of jingoism, just trying to understand Xeptu's standpoint somewhat better ( which I may regret )
Tartiflette Fan is offline  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 21:24
  #14519 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
Location: The Swan Downunder
Posts: 1,138
Received 89 Likes on 53 Posts
Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
I asked before with no answer, so will ask again . Why do you quote France particularly ? Is it because they have nuclear weapons ? is it because they have/are fighting in Africa ? Why quote them and not Britain* which has the same "qualities " ?

* I am not asking this out of any kind of jingoism, just trying to understand Xeptu's standpoint somewhat better ( which I may regret )
Because France and Poland are the only NATO member countries on continental Europe that are militarily capable of defending Europe.
Xeptu is online now  
Old 10th Feb 2023, 21:31
  #14520 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Blighty
Posts: 788
Received 88 Likes on 22 Posts
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/...ean-union.html
According to this link, Poland is a bit down the list in terms of numbers. What makes you assert that they and France are the only nations capable of defending Europe?
HOVIS is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.