Is Ukraine about to have a war?
I'm with you, while supporting UKR 100% I'm really concerned about Europe. All the NATO countries clearly are at odds and couldn't organise a root in a brothel. German blocks supply, France is pretty much sitting on their hands and we all know it will be a cold day in hell when France defends Germany. I am truly concerned that if Ukraine falls Europe is in serious trouble. NATO in my view is nothing more than a fantasy and I think Putin knows it.
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https://www.euronews.com/2023/02/10/...ongoing-crises
Moldova's prime minister resigns and government collapses, amid ongoing crises
Moldova’s government collapsed Friday as pro-Western Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilitaresigned, adding to a series of crises that have gripped the small nation since Russia invaded its neighbour, Ukraine.
Gavrilita told a news conference that the “time has come for me to announce my resignation” and said no one expected her government, elected in the summer of 2021, “would have to manage so many crises caused by Russian aggression in Ukraine.”…
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...ttempts-a80191
Moldova Accuses Russia of Destabilization Attempts
Moldova's intelligence service said Thursday that Russia was acting to destabilize the former Soviet country, following comments by Ukraine's president that Kyiv had intercepted a plan by Moscow.
"SIS confirms that, both from the information presented by our Ukrainian partner and also from our operative activities, subversive activities with the aim of undermining the Republic of Moldova, of destabilization and violating the public order were identified," Moldova's Intelligence and Security Service said in a statement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, addressing an EU summit earlier on Thursday, told EU heads of government that Kyiv had "intercepted the plan for the destruction of Moldova by Russian intelligence."
"This document shows who, when and how it is going to break the democracy of Moldova and establish control over Moldova," he said, adding that he had immediately warned Chisinau of the threat.
Moldova's prime minister resigns and government collapses, amid ongoing crises
Moldova’s government collapsed Friday as pro-Western Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilitaresigned, adding to a series of crises that have gripped the small nation since Russia invaded its neighbour, Ukraine.
Gavrilita told a news conference that the “time has come for me to announce my resignation” and said no one expected her government, elected in the summer of 2021, “would have to manage so many crises caused by Russian aggression in Ukraine.”…
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...ttempts-a80191
Moldova Accuses Russia of Destabilization Attempts
Moldova's intelligence service said Thursday that Russia was acting to destabilize the former Soviet country, following comments by Ukraine's president that Kyiv had intercepted a plan by Moscow.
"SIS confirms that, both from the information presented by our Ukrainian partner and also from our operative activities, subversive activities with the aim of undermining the Republic of Moldova, of destabilization and violating the public order were identified," Moldova's Intelligence and Security Service said in a statement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, addressing an EU summit earlier on Thursday, told EU heads of government that Kyiv had "intercepted the plan for the destruction of Moldova by Russian intelligence."
"This document shows who, when and how it is going to break the democracy of Moldova and establish control over Moldova," he said, adding that he had immediately warned Chisinau of the threat.
..
Last edited by NutLoose; 10th Feb 2023 at 16:05.
Aviation content,
Mi24 hit, but watching it do you think the other was recovering the crew from one that had a technical failure and it was then destroyed?
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...CxyerW2YgtAAAA
Mi24 hit, but watching it do you think the other was recovering the crew from one that had a technical failure and it was then destroyed?
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...CxyerW2YgtAAAA
That'll take a lot of blade tape to get back in the air. There was other images yesterday of a helo hovering over a bunch of troops that disappeared in a large fireball, along with all the squishy bits on the ground and inside presumably. Did not look like a MANPAD, but whatever it was, probably left everyone with tinnitus.
ORACs comments on the Russian manpower v Ukrainian, and the associated comments on combat fatigue, this has been an intense combat period for both sides. Russia has severely damaged it's "competent" "profesional" forces for little gain, but has harmed Ukraine on the way through. The training of Russians seems to be as chaotic and nonsensical as their tactics and logistics. When Lord farquard makes his statement that the losses of his army are a price he is prepared to pay, there may be a few of the teams that should be C/S "deadmeat" that may do the maths and work out that the 6th floor window is an attractive option for Lord Farquad to pay the price.
Ukraine has definitely fatigued and weary warfighters, but they have not displayed any loss of resolve, they know what they are fighting for, and they know what the consequences are if they lose resolve. The Russians have no commitment to the fight, and are being slaughtered in battalion and occasionally division levels daily. Ukraine has the fortitude to hold their ground while Russia disintegrates due to the stench that is emitted from the Kremlin. The only thing Ukraine needs is the munitions and systems to do what the west does not have the stomach to do.
On kalibr tracks over Romania, the lord lunacy is unlikely to deliberately result in a NATO nation having a casus belli to provide all materiel in the closet to Ukraine. Transnistria, like much of Russia's claims to territory in contravention of the Alma Ata accords and every other treaty that they have ever signed, is not Russian territory, it remains part of a sovereign nation and eventually needs to sorted out, as that sovereign nation has every liklihood of being a part eventually of an EU and NATO, even with the untidy bits that are the holdover of prior aggressive disregard of treaties by Russia.
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The Ukrainians have added to their training, they fire the main gun as well now 
What is going on re Ukraine you make again the same mix up as Putin does: It is NOT NATO who is supporting Ukraine. It is individual states most of which happen to be part of NATO who are supporting Ukraine.
Last edited by henra; 10th Feb 2023 at 14:50.
These countries support Ukraine to get back all the stolen land. Nobody intends to invade Russia. Russia just needs to U-turn and move out of Ukraine. This is why this is not WW3.
How well versed are you on Moldovan politics?
She might (this is me speculating) be making this move to save herself an accidental fall out of a window.
I will guess that some people in Moldova are more sympathetic towards Russia than others.
She may be getting some warning signals as regards internal problems.
Ukraine mobilised about a million men after the invasion when they went on a full war footing. They’ve been training since last summer. The absence of any Ukrainian offensive might be indicative of how many troops have been involved in training roles. Plus of course those trained in the UK, Poland etc.
Theyve all been equipped with top line personal equipment by NATO countries, the shortage is artillery and armour - but that’s also been arriving from the USA etc.
They started with around 250K men, so even believing 100K casualties they should have over 1 million trained troops available.
On the other side Russia started with about 200K deployed troops - the cream of their standing army of about 350K. They’ve lost about 200K of those. They’ve mobilised around 300K, but as reported extensively they’ve been fed untrained straight to the front and they are currently losing around 600-1000 a day in their offensives against static Ukrainian defences. That’s about a division a week.
Best estimates are Russia currently has about 300K men dispersed across all fronts in Ukraine with no real training establishment left in Russia. Similarly they have no inflow of new equipment. They have a couple of factories refurbishing old T-64 tanks etc, but no major arms production facilities to expand that with new equipment.
Any further recruits can expect to be also thrown directly t9 the front untrained and ill or unequipped.
Result? A Russian army outnumbered 3 to 1, when it needs to be the other way around to start an offensive and increasing not only outranges but outnumbered in artillery on which they rely.
Putin is expected to start an offensive in the next few days. There are no reports of mass troop or armour concentrations near the front (which would be being decimated by HIMARS), so even a local major breakthrough seems unlikely. If they attack uncoordinated across all fronts their current loses rates can be expected to rocket.
Theyve all been equipped with top line personal equipment by NATO countries, the shortage is artillery and armour - but that’s also been arriving from the USA etc.
They started with around 250K men, so even believing 100K casualties they should have over 1 million trained troops available.
On the other side Russia started with about 200K deployed troops - the cream of their standing army of about 350K. They’ve lost about 200K of those. They’ve mobilised around 300K, but as reported extensively they’ve been fed untrained straight to the front and they are currently losing around 600-1000 a day in their offensives against static Ukrainian defences. That’s about a division a week.
Best estimates are Russia currently has about 300K men dispersed across all fronts in Ukraine with no real training establishment left in Russia. Similarly they have no inflow of new equipment. They have a couple of factories refurbishing old T-64 tanks etc, but no major arms production facilities to expand that with new equipment.
Any further recruits can expect to be also thrown directly t9 the front untrained and ill or unequipped.
Result? A Russian army outnumbered 3 to 1, when it needs to be the other way around to start an offensive and increasing not only outranges but outnumbered in artillery on which they rely.
Putin is expected to start an offensive in the next few days. There are no reports of mass troop or armour concentrations near the front (which would be being decimated by HIMARS), so even a local major breakthrough seems unlikely. If they attack uncoordinated across all fronts their current loses rates can be expected to rocket.
It is the rule in war, if our forces are ten to the enemy's one, to surround him; if five to one, to attack him; if twice as numerous, to divide our army into two.
If equally matched, we can offer battle; if slightly inferior in numbers, we can avoid the enemy; if quite unequal in every way, we can flee from him.
Hence, though an obstinate fight may be made by a small force, in the end it must be captured by the larger force.
If equally matched, we can offer battle; if slightly inferior in numbers, we can avoid the enemy; if quite unequal in every way, we can flee from him.
Hence, though an obstinate fight may be made by a small force, in the end it must be captured by the larger force.
These rules of war are all very well, but they treat warfare as if it were a game of chess. They take no account of the relative leadership, quality, morale and determination of the opposing forces. According to Sun Tzu the Luftwaffe should have won the Battle of Britain and the Paras could not have taken Goose Green. I'm sure there must be many other examples.
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These rules of war are all very well, but they treat warfare as if it were a game of chess. They take no account of the relative leadership, quality, morale and determination of the opposing forces. According to Sun Tzu the Luftwaffe should have won the Battle of Britain and the Paras could not have taken Goose Green. I'm sure there must be many other examples.
The Department of the Army in the United States, through its Command and General Staff College, lists The Art of War as one example of a book that may be kept at a military unit's library.
The Art of War is listed on the Marine Corps Professional Reading Program (formerly known as the Commandant's Reading List). It is recommended reading for all United States Military Intelligence personnel.
The Art of War is used as instructional material at the US Military Academy at West Point, in the course Military Strategy (470), and it is also recommended reading for Officer cadets at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst. Some notable military leaders have stated the following about Sun Tzu and The Art of War:
"I always kept a copy of The Art of War on my desk." – General Douglas MacArthur, 5 Star General & Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers.
"I have read The Art of War by Sun Tzu. He continues to influence both soldiers & politicians." – General Colin Powell, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, National Security Advisor, and Secretary of State.
According to some authors, the strategy of deception from The Art of War was studied and widely used by the KGB: "I will force the enemy to take our strength for weakness, and our weakness for strength, and thus will turn his strength into weakness".
The Art of War is listed on the Marine Corps Professional Reading Program (formerly known as the Commandant's Reading List). It is recommended reading for all United States Military Intelligence personnel.
The Art of War is used as instructional material at the US Military Academy at West Point, in the course Military Strategy (470), and it is also recommended reading for Officer cadets at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst. Some notable military leaders have stated the following about Sun Tzu and The Art of War:
"I always kept a copy of The Art of War on my desk." – General Douglas MacArthur, 5 Star General & Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers.
"I have read The Art of War by Sun Tzu. He continues to influence both soldiers & politicians." – General Colin Powell, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, National Security Advisor, and Secretary of State.
According to some authors, the strategy of deception from The Art of War was studied and widely used by the KGB: "I will force the enemy to take our strength for weakness, and our weakness for strength, and thus will turn his strength into weakness".
Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
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On the contrary, "The Art of War" is still a cornerstone of military tactics today. It was still one of the standard texts 40 years ago when I first read it. Many modern wartime leaders have admitted to reading it. The KGB used tactics from it. Putin has most likely read it. Seems he didn't remember some key elements though. Still worth reading today. From the wiki page about it:
Most here will know parts of it. They may not realise the origin of these well-known statements though. Bet everyone here has heard a variation on the last paragraph in the "Attack by Stratagem" section:
Most here will know parts of it. They may not realise the origin of these well-known statements though. Bet everyone here has heard a variation on the last paragraph in the "Attack by Stratagem" section:
have this thread reached peak Walt yet
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Walt who? Can't see it being a Disney production. Not the thing kids would be interested in.
The text was required reading here in the UK. Most likely still is. The copy I have is one from a course at RMCS Shrivenham in the late 1980's. I'm not a great reader by any stretch. It's one of a handful of books I re-read from time to time. Fascinates me how little has changed over the centuries. Seems it's an inherent human condition to wage war. Only so many ways to do it and most were documented two and half thousand years ago.
Try reading it. I guarantee you'll find it applies to events today just as it did centuries ago. It's in the public domain. I've an open source PDF copy I could link to here if anyone's interested. Being a fixer of things electronic for most of my time getting a glimpse of the world of tactics and strategy captured my imagination. No idea why.
The text was required reading here in the UK. Most likely still is. The copy I have is one from a course at RMCS Shrivenham in the late 1980's. I'm not a great reader by any stretch. It's one of a handful of books I re-read from time to time. Fascinates me how little has changed over the centuries. Seems it's an inherent human condition to wage war. Only so many ways to do it and most were documented two and half thousand years ago.
Try reading it. I guarantee you'll find it applies to events today just as it did centuries ago. It's in the public domain. I've an open source PDF copy I could link to here if anyone's interested. Being a fixer of things electronic for most of my time getting a glimpse of the world of tactics and strategy captured my imagination. No idea why.
The Art of War is truly a classic of general applicability.
Counter-intuitively in the context of Ukr coflict, another, more recent, cleassic has much to commend it:
Small Wars: their principles and practice by Callwell. Although written in the context of western imperial expansion and fuzzy-wuzzy bashing gungho days, we find that scale of conflict does little to confound the generalities.
I would add that Callwell's book, readily available, is a wargamer's bible, packed with examples written when partipants were still alive.
Counter-intuitively in the context of Ukr coflict, another, more recent, cleassic has much to commend it:
Small Wars: their principles and practice by Callwell. Although written in the context of western imperial expansion and fuzzy-wuzzy bashing gungho days, we find that scale of conflict does little to confound the generalities.
I would add that Callwell's book, readily available, is a wargamer's bible, packed with examples written when partipants were still alive.
It has escaped your notice that NATO as an organisation is playing no active part for very good reasons. Some (but not all) assistance is being provided by nations who just happen to be members of NATO. I believe that a great deal of the assistance provided so far and planned for the near future is not being made public for obvious reasons. If Putin were stupid enough to attack a NATO country the response would be of a different magnitude entirely, and I assume he has been told through diplomatic channels precisely what would happen if he did so.
If by NATO you mean the USA then I agree with you if nuclear weapons are used and for no other reason. Europe's problem is that they firmly believe that in the 21st century it is inconceivable that Putin will attack a NATO country, With the exception of France and Poland the rest of you NATO countries are fu#%ing useless.
If by NATO you mean the USA then I agree with you if nuclear weapons are used and for no other reason. Europe's problem is that they firmly believe that in the 21st century it is inconceivable that Putin will attack a NATO country, With the exception of France and Poland the rest of you NATO countries are fu#%ing useless.
How soon you forget.
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If by NATO you mean the USA then I agree with you if nuclear weapons are used and for no other reason. Europe's problem is that they firmly believe that in the 21st century it is inconceivable that Putin will attack a NATO country, With the exception of France and Poland the rest of you NATO countries are fu#%ing useless.
* I am not asking this out of any kind of jingoism, just trying to understand Xeptu's standpoint somewhat better ( which I may regret
)
I asked before with no answer, so will ask again . Why do you quote France particularly ? Is it because they have nuclear weapons ? is it because they have/are fighting in Africa ? Why quote them and not Britain* which has the same "qualities " ?
* I am not asking this out of any kind of jingoism, just trying to understand Xeptu's standpoint somewhat better ( which I may regret )
* I am not asking this out of any kind of jingoism, just trying to understand Xeptu's standpoint somewhat better ( which I may regret
)
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/...ean-union.html
According to this link, Poland is a bit down the list in terms of numbers. What makes you assert that they and France are the only nations capable of defending Europe?
According to this link, Poland is a bit down the list in terms of numbers. What makes you assert that they and France are the only nations capable of defending Europe?