Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Coming from a former mobile fuel bowser driver I'd rather be hit with a full tank than empty tank. Fuel burns but fuel vapors explode if ignited.
Standing joke in the squad was that incase of war bring hotdogs and marshmallows as we were a mobile bbq waiting to happen.
Standing joke in the squad was that incase of war bring hotdogs and marshmallows as we were a mobile bbq waiting to happen.
Coming from a former mobile fuel bowser driver I'd rather be hit with a full tank than empty tank. Fuel burns but fuel vapors explode if ignited.
Standing joke in the squad was that incase of war bring hotdogs and marshmallows as we were a mobile bbq waiting to happen.
Standing joke in the squad was that incase of war bring hotdogs and marshmallows as we were a mobile bbq waiting to happen.
Snow fella, that was the oddity, they are either really really lucky, or they are inerted. or they are water. and the tanks are those things that have a pool of molten metal in a blob. curious.
Russian Invasion of a Sovereign State: Time Series of Losses
This is a time series of what appears to be ORYX data that gives an idea of what is happening to the Aggressor and the Defender forces. Numbers alone don't give the story, but they suggest some areas of activity are vastly more effective than others. As a former military driver and as this is an aviation forum it pains me to say that Ukraine's MiG-29's and Russias SU-34's aren't going to make the difference to the outcome of this matter, much more cost-effective and deployable systems will. IMHO 
Engineered Data LLC
Engineered Data LLC
Earlier there was discussion of strike against the bridge over Kerch straits. Ukraine has stated that if the opportunity arises they will do it.
Here's the response from Kremlin: "that would be terrorist attack!"
MOSCOW, 21 April. /TASS/. Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov called the statements of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine Alexei Danilov about a possible strike on the Crimean bridge an announcement of a terrorist attack, which requires a legal assessment and subsequent punishment.
"Such a statement is nothing more than an announcement of a possible terrorist act. This is unacceptable, there are many signs of acts that are subject to legal verification with subsequent punishment," Peskov told reporters.
https://tass.ru/politika/14436585
Here's the response from Kremlin: "that would be terrorist attack!"
MOSCOW, 21 April. /TASS/. Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov called the statements of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine Alexei Danilov about a possible strike on the Crimean bridge an announcement of a terrorist attack, which requires a legal assessment and subsequent punishment.
"Such a statement is nothing more than an announcement of a possible terrorist act. This is unacceptable, there are many signs of acts that are subject to legal verification with subsequent punishment," Peskov told reporters.
https://tass.ru/politika/14436585
Earlier there was discussion of strike against the bridge over Kerch straits. Ukraine has stated that if the opportunity arises they will do it.
Here's the response from Kremlin: "that would be terrorist attack!"
MOSCOW, 21 April. /TASS/. Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov called the statements of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine Alexei Danilov about a possible strike on the Crimean bridge an announcement of a terrorist attack, which requires a legal assessment and subsequent punishment.
"Such a statement is nothing more than an announcement of a possible terrorist act. This is unacceptable, there are many signs of acts that are subject to legal verification with subsequent punishment," Peskov told reporters.
https://tass.ru/politika/14436585
Here's the response from Kremlin: "that would be terrorist attack!"
MOSCOW, 21 April. /TASS/. Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov called the statements of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine Alexei Danilov about a possible strike on the Crimean bridge an announcement of a terrorist attack, which requires a legal assessment and subsequent punishment.
"Such a statement is nothing more than an announcement of a possible terrorist act. This is unacceptable, there are many signs of acts that are subject to legal verification with subsequent punishment," Peskov told reporters.
https://tass.ru/politika/14436585
Would not block the shipping channel too, but I am sure it would be inconvenient.
So the rules of this game mean that Ukraine has to take this flailing and smashing and pummelling incursion, but is not allowed to cross the border to strike back. Got it.
Earlier there was discussion of strike against the bridge over Kerch straits. Ukraine has stated that if the opportunity arises they will do it.
Here's the response from Kremlin: "that would be terrorist attack!"
MOSCOW, 21 April. /TASS/. Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov called the statements of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine Alexei Danilov about a possible strike on the Crimean bridge an announcement of a terrorist attack, which requires a legal assessment and subsequent punishment.
"Such a statement is nothing more than an announcement of a possible terrorist act. This is unacceptable, there are many signs of acts that are subject to legal verification with subsequent punishment," Peskov told reporters.
https://tass.ru/politika/14436585
Here's the response from Kremlin: "that would be terrorist attack!"
MOSCOW, 21 April. /TASS/. Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov called the statements of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine Alexei Danilov about a possible strike on the Crimean bridge an announcement of a terrorist attack, which requires a legal assessment and subsequent punishment.
"Such a statement is nothing more than an announcement of a possible terrorist act. This is unacceptable, there are many signs of acts that are subject to legal verification with subsequent punishment," Peskov told reporters.
https://tass.ru/politika/14436585
What a Orwellian world we live in.Go for it Ukraine.
And in the meantime, we have made it necessary for the Kremmins to consider relocating AAA and SAMs to Kerch, so that is not a bad days texting all in all.
MBT losses n gains, time domain
Here is the day-on-day MBT losses, only considering the ORYX data, of destroyed, and captured. Those have some validity. The destroyed has a high likelihood that the crew are out of action for the short term if they were very lucky, or forever if they were near the turret launching as the tanks Ronson'd.
You can draw conclusions from these two graphs as you wish, they don't give a complete picture, the force size to start with is a major factor. The Russians have a critical manpower problem, they have little meaningful reserve capability to man the systems that have been lost with others, whereas Ukraine will have a larger pool of experience on the equipment that can be returned to service. Ukraine has the capability to RTS the captured tanks, Russia has buckets of rusty buckets (???) sitting about already that they already have issues activating.
So Ukraine roughly takes out 4 1/2 Russian MBT's for every one they lose. Better than it could be, but still not great given the force sizes.
But....
If Ukraine gets to add crews to the captured tanks, or other T-72s etc rolling in, then the picture is a little different. As the Ukrainians have stated, they have overall improved their available tanks, which is possible that some or even all of those counted as captured are able to be returned to service rapidly. This analysis excludes the damaged, and the abandoned MBT's, those are going to be out of the fight for the short term. In the second graph, the solid red line is the relative change in MBTs that the Ukrainians have gained over the Russians in the fight so far. That is consistent with what the UKDF has stated.
A meaningful analysis would include the cause of loss, and my suspicion remains that the MBT's on both sides are mainly ATW magnets. The west and UN countries with any interest in the UN Charter obligations would do well in providing ATW's, H.E. rounds and tubes, and drones, and anti-drone capability to increase the ability for Ukraine to get Russia out of Ukraine, Donbass, and the Crimea.
As far as "terrorism" goes, all Russia needs to do is get out of other peoples lands and to stop being an uncultured bully (nekulturny). Ukraine is the legal sovereign power of Crimea, and Kerch, so if they want to designate Kerch as a bombing range, that is their business. Go read the UN Charter Russia, it appears it didn't get much of a view from your bosses in any time recently. Recall that Pukins KGB was behind the attacks on the Moscow apartments that was then used as the purported casus belli for his kick-off of genocide in Chechnya. BTW, at the same time as Russia is making friends and winning hearts in Ukraine, they appear not to be able to read a map, they are nowhere near their agreed lines of South Ossetia in Georgia, after their SOP invasion of a neighbor.
For the Russian navy, 200km doesn't protect your forces, unless you believe that the Ukrainians suddenly got as drunk and as incompetent as your own leaders and forgot how to conduct asymmetric warfare. If you are a Russian warship in the Black Sea, you gotta be wondering when your next ship self immolates, seems to be a habit of the RFS tubs.
Funny thing, listening to the Russian soldier commenting that he didn't know that they were going to attack Ukraine until they were on board the helicopter and launching to attack the main airport at Hostomel. He was injured and cared for by Ukrainians, in Bucha. He was eventually handled as a prisoner combatant IAW the Geneva Convention, that little bit of humanity that is missing in the soul of Russia. He was cared for and the Ukrainians saved his leg from the wound. At the same time, Russia was happily out there murdering civilians, with hands bound behind their backs and shooting them in the back of the head. If you want to know why the world is annoyed with you, that pretty much sums it up.
Russia, "if you are listening... go home".
Politicians, do your damned duty, and stop being gutless. Anything other than unbridled support for a nation being brutally attacked by a despotic lawless regime is appeasement, and that didn't work last time in '38, why should it work now?
IMHO, E&OE.
You can draw conclusions from these two graphs as you wish, they don't give a complete picture, the force size to start with is a major factor. The Russians have a critical manpower problem, they have little meaningful reserve capability to man the systems that have been lost with others, whereas Ukraine will have a larger pool of experience on the equipment that can be returned to service. Ukraine has the capability to RTS the captured tanks, Russia has buckets of rusty buckets (???) sitting about already that they already have issues activating.
So Ukraine roughly takes out 4 1/2 Russian MBT's for every one they lose. Better than it could be, but still not great given the force sizes.
But....
If Ukraine gets to add crews to the captured tanks, or other T-72s etc rolling in, then the picture is a little different. As the Ukrainians have stated, they have overall improved their available tanks, which is possible that some or even all of those counted as captured are able to be returned to service rapidly. This analysis excludes the damaged, and the abandoned MBT's, those are going to be out of the fight for the short term. In the second graph, the solid red line is the relative change in MBTs that the Ukrainians have gained over the Russians in the fight so far. That is consistent with what the UKDF has stated.
A meaningful analysis would include the cause of loss, and my suspicion remains that the MBT's on both sides are mainly ATW magnets. The west and UN countries with any interest in the UN Charter obligations would do well in providing ATW's, H.E. rounds and tubes, and drones, and anti-drone capability to increase the ability for Ukraine to get Russia out of Ukraine, Donbass, and the Crimea.
As far as "terrorism" goes, all Russia needs to do is get out of other peoples lands and to stop being an uncultured bully (nekulturny). Ukraine is the legal sovereign power of Crimea, and Kerch, so if they want to designate Kerch as a bombing range, that is their business. Go read the UN Charter Russia, it appears it didn't get much of a view from your bosses in any time recently. Recall that Pukins KGB was behind the attacks on the Moscow apartments that was then used as the purported casus belli for his kick-off of genocide in Chechnya. BTW, at the same time as Russia is making friends and winning hearts in Ukraine, they appear not to be able to read a map, they are nowhere near their agreed lines of South Ossetia in Georgia, after their SOP invasion of a neighbor.
For the Russian navy, 200km doesn't protect your forces, unless you believe that the Ukrainians suddenly got as drunk and as incompetent as your own leaders and forgot how to conduct asymmetric warfare. If you are a Russian warship in the Black Sea, you gotta be wondering when your next ship self immolates, seems to be a habit of the RFS tubs.
Funny thing, listening to the Russian soldier commenting that he didn't know that they were going to attack Ukraine until they were on board the helicopter and launching to attack the main airport at Hostomel. He was injured and cared for by Ukrainians, in Bucha. He was eventually handled as a prisoner combatant IAW the Geneva Convention, that little bit of humanity that is missing in the soul of Russia. He was cared for and the Ukrainians saved his leg from the wound. At the same time, Russia was happily out there murdering civilians, with hands bound behind their backs and shooting them in the back of the head. If you want to know why the world is annoyed with you, that pretty much sums it up.
Russia, "if you are listening... go home".
Politicians, do your damned duty, and stop being gutless. Anything other than unbridled support for a nation being brutally attacked by a despotic lawless regime is appeasement, and that didn't work last time in '38, why should it work now?
IMHO, E&OE.
Last edited by fdr; 21st Apr 2022 at 14:56.
There hasn't been much news of the Russian push in easter Ukraine but apparently the Ukrainians are doing rather well as US adds additional 800M$ to Ukraine (they wouldn't send more weaponry if the Russians would be on the winning streak would they?):
Biden says there is no evidence Putin has control of all of Mariupol as he announces another $800M Ukraine weapons package with howitzers and drones to help 'destroy' Russia in the east - bringing U.S. assistance to more than $3B in 52 days
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-official.html
Biden says there is no evidence Putin has control of all of Mariupol as he announces another $800M Ukraine weapons package with howitzers and drones to help 'destroy' Russia in the east - bringing U.S. assistance to more than $3B in 52 days
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-official.html
Also a video of a what is being said to be a Ka-52 being taken out doing the rounds.
"https://twitter.com/OsintTv/status/1517153720328286210"
"https://twitter.com/OsintTv/status/1517153720328286210"
Last edited by macmp419; 21st Apr 2022 at 16:13.
Two more in Zaporizhzhia Oblast - tweets variously report 2 x Mi-8 or 1x Mi-8 and a Ka-52. Igla appears to be the weapon of choice.