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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 22nd Mar 2022, 19:35
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It’s at times like this I’m glad I’m an ex BDR assessor!!!
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 19:49
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A CNN interview with a Ukrainian pilot.

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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 20:43
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Thermobarics being used by eastern separatists.
Love the stirring, patriotic music.
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 20:58
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Originally Posted by Usertim

There is not a chance that it “landed” in that state. More likely damaged on the ground and used as a nice piece of propaganda, there also seems to be another airframe ahead of it towards the end of the clip.
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 22:45
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Very interesting article r/e Russia and nuclear weapons:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/un...cision-making/
Worth reading in light of Peskov's statement to CNN not ruling out their use.

EDIT: A lot of detail here about tactical weapons, who's responsible for them and where they are stored. Page 14 onwards:
https://unidir.org/publication/lock-...weapons-europe

Last edited by tartare; 22nd Mar 2022 at 23:00.
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 06:54
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Thermobarics being used by eastern separatists. First they shot down MH17, now they are using thermobarics. Once all this is over I do hope there will be appropriate punishment for these war criminals.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505457731913887746
Highly doubtful. Look at what happened to the members of Das Reich who were prosecuted for the massacre at Oradour-sur-Glane in 1944. Excellent German records of personnel, many admitted their involvement, the country affected was one of the Allied powers and the trial was held in that country, but the prison terms served were very light. One or two may have hanged but i am not certain.

If there is any retribution, then most likely of a summary nature after capture by the Ukranians;
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 07:36
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Highly doubtful. Look at what happened to the members of Das Reich who were prosecuted for the massacre at Oradour-sur-Glane in 1944. Excellent German records of personnel, many admitted their involvement, the country affected was one of the Allied powers and the trial was held in that country, but the prison terms served were very light. One or two may have hanged but i am not certain.

If there is any retribution, then most likely of a summary nature after capture by the Ukranians;
Not quite, although there are similarities to the situation in Ukraine. From Wikipedia:

On 12 January 1953, a military tribunal in Bordeaux heard the charges against the surviving 65 of the 200 or so SS men who had been involved. Only 21 of them were present, as many were in East Germany, which would not permit their extradition. Seven of those charged were German citizens, but 14 were Alsatians, French nationals whose home region had been annexed by Germany in 1940. All but one of the Alsatians claimed to have been forced to join the Waffen-SS. Such forced conscripts from Alsace and Lorraine called themselves the malgré-nous, meaning "against our will".

On 11 February, 20 defendants were found guilty. Continuing uproar in Alsace (including demands for autonomy) pressed the French parliament to pass an amnesty law for all the malgré-nous on 19 February. The convicted Alsatian former SS men were released shortly afterwards, which caused bitter protests in the Limousin region.

By 1958, all of the German defendants had also been released. General Heinz Lammerding of the Das Reich division, who had given the orders for retaliation against the Resistance, died in 1971, following a successful entrepreneurial career. At the time of the trial, he lived in Düsseldorf, in the former British occupation zone of West Germany, and the French government never obtained his extradition from West Germany.[9]

The last trial of a Waffen-SS member who had been involved took place in 1983. Former SS-Obersturmführer Heinz Barth was tracked down in East Germany. Barth had participated in the Oradour-sur-Glane massacre as a platoon leader in the "Der Führer" regiment, commanding 45 SS men. He was one of several charged with giving orders to shoot 20 men in a garage. Barth was sentenced to life imprisonment by the First Senate of the City Court of Berlin. He was released from prison in the reunified Germany in 1997 and died in August 2007.

On 8 January 2014, Werner Christukat,[10] an 88-year-old former member of the 3rd Company of the 1st Battalion of the "Der Führer" SS regiment was charged, by the state court in Cologne, with 25 charges of murder and hundreds of counts of accessory to murder in connection with the massacre in Oradour-sur-Glane.[11] The suspect, who was identified only as Werner C., had until 31 March 2014 to respond to the charges. If the case went to trial, it could have possibly been held in a juvenile court because the suspect was only 19 at the time it occurred. According to his attorney, Rainer Pohlen, the suspect acknowledged being at the village but denied being involved in any killings.[12] On 9 December 2014, the court dropped the case, citing a lack of any witness statements or reliable documentary evidence able to disprove the suspect's contention that he was not a part of the massacre.[13]
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 09:21
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Good letter in the FT today from Air Cdre Carl Scott:

https://on.ft.com/37GWqHx
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 09:51
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Some infographics. Again, the Atlantic metrics just don't apply to mother Russia.

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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 10:24
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An interesting capture.


https://theaviationist.com/2022/03/2...ed-krasukha-4/
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 11:18
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Belarus joining in? links to troop movements but not verified.
Thurst into Western Ukraine to attempt to block off the weapons resupply routes?
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 11:29
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Possibly hence why in the other thread I did mention that legally the Ukraine could sell land State to State to Poland, a foot wide strip along the Belarus border would do nicely, hence anything coming through Belarus would be "invading" Nato territory as it moves into Ukraine and thus becomes a target.
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 12:57
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Possibly hence why in the other thread I did mention that legally the Ukraine could sell land State to State to Poland, a foot wide strip along the Belarus border would do nicely, hence anything coming through Belarus would be "invading" Nato territory as it moves into Ukraine and thus becomes a target.
Not sure that suggested loophole dive would be considered remotely wise by the political leadership in Poland. (Or anywhere else in the 28 National Capitals within NATO).
The link you made to land sales ends in the 1960's.
You are really reaching here, Nutty. No sale.
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 12:58
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Originally Posted by Davef68
Thurst into Western Ukraine to attempt to block off the weapons resupply routes?
I suspect they will not get involved. Threat is sufficient.
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 13:00
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
Not sure that suggested loophole dive would be considered remotely wise by the political leadership in Poland. (Or anywhere else in the 28 National Capitals within NATO).
The link you made to land sales ends in the 1960's.
You are really reaching here, Nutty. No sale.
The Land did belong to Poland until Stalin redrew the map.
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 13:06
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Originally Posted by peter we
The Land did belong to Poland until Stalin redrew the map.
So what?
Did you see them change (Poland's borders) after the wall fell and the USSR disincorporated?
No.
(Konigsberg is another case in point of a place that used to belong to someone else, but the Russians still have. Kaliningrad Oblast).
Or are you going to advocate moving parts of Alsace and Lorraine back into Germany now?
Your approach here comes right out of Putin's play book: "If we go back to this year, it was ours"
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 13:09
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
So what?
Did you see them change (Poland's borders) after the wall fell and the USSR disincorporated?
No.
(Konigsberg is another case in point of a place that used to belong to someone else, but the Russians still have. Kaliningrad Oblast).
Or are you going to advocate moving parts of Alsace and Lorraine back into Germany now?
Your approach here comes right out of Putin's play book: "If we go back to this year, it was ours"
Poland and Ukraine also formed a commonwealth. Instead of selling a strip of land they could reunite..
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 16:02
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Originally Posted by peter we
The Land did belong to Poland until Stalin redrew the map.
Considering Poland moved considerably West after WW2, I don't think that's a strategy anyone would want. Maybe the Germans would want Danzig back?

In fact defining what was historically Poland is complex!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territ...tion_of_Poland
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 16:06
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
Your approach here comes right out of Putin's play book: "If we go back to this year, it was ours"
Lithuania could play this game to great effect: "Okay, everyone stop arguing - everywhere is ours!"
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Old 23rd Mar 2022, 17:07
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https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-pol...-24-hours.html

5 more fast Jets today if to be believed

Slava Ukraine

Last edited by MJ89; 23rd Mar 2022 at 22:20.
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