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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 4th Mar 2022, 18:42
  #2421 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Apparently two more senior Russians are no more.
Wouldn't want to be the gofer who has to give Putin news like that.
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 18:45
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Originally Posted by airsound
SLXOwft
I guess those were the same two I saw (on FR24) taking off from Fairford. Oddly, FR24 lists them as coming from Kemble, or Cotswold Airport as it now is. You'd think that Fairford, with its 10,000-odd ft runway, might be big enough to be noticed....

airsound
Just overflying ORM Swell @ 9000Ft in the direction of Fairford. 18.46
Mike

Last edited by sealo0; 4th Mar 2022 at 18:46. Reason: time
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 19:09
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
Wouldn't want to be the gofer who has to give Putin news like that.
Making the assumption that Putin didn't know in advance of their pending demise.

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Old 4th Mar 2022, 19:14
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What the hell? Armor column near Pskov (close to Estonia and Latvia).

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Old 4th Mar 2022, 19:19
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Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY
Making the assumption that Putin didn't know in advance of their pending demise.
Meanwhile back on the front line: "Comrade Colonel - about that field promotion you offered..."
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 19:27
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This helped me understand the financial stick that's being used and helped me understand that the SWIFT stuff is minor - the body blow is preventing central bank access to the US and Europe and freezing all the liquid assets. As much as one likes see things happening on the ground, it seems like this will deliver a more potent effect.


The level of financial preparation and the long time it has been underway suggest that some dustup has been expected for a long time. I wonder if Ukraine is really the end goal - I cannot help thinking that it isn't.
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 19:28
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Originally Posted by Pali
What the hell? Armor column near Pskov (close to Estonia and Latvia).

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499758843022258176

A direct threat to NATO members, this is potential prelude to WWIII.

Is Putin trying to goad NATO into mobilization and a casus belli?
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 19:38
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Originally Posted by airsound
SLXOwft
I guess those were the same two I saw (on FR24) taking off from Fairford. Oddly, FR24 lists them as coming from Kemble, or Cotswold Airport as it now is. You'd think that Fairford, with its 10,000-odd ft runway, might be big enough to be noticed....

airsound
Shh.. they were from South Cerney. Товарищи, Fairford is for airshow only!

On ADS-B Exchange they appeared in Germany, disappeared over Romania, reappeared and eventually made it back whence they really came.

I assume the Russians were warned, it could have turned very wrong if two 52s heading east out of Germany were interpreted as probably hostile.
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 19:39
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
A direct threat to NATO members, this is potential prelude to WWIII.

Is Putin trying to goad NATO into mobilization and a casus belli?
Text within the link suggests this convoy is heading away from Latvia.
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 19:41
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It could simply be reacting to the NATO build up in the Countries. Which would make sense.

The good thing that comes out of all this is having to shift troops to bolster their defences on the northern borders means they are unavailable to reinforce the army in the Ukraine.


https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 19:43
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I can't find the text to quote it, but someone earlier said they were surprised that only three senior officers had been killed so far, and I was wondering ...

... what makes you think it's only three?
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 19:52
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
Pilatus PC-12 NG, Jetfly Aviation, LX-JFR, out of Hurn, destination Luxembourg. Somebody escaping with a suitcase full of paper ?
Or simply returning to its Findel base.
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 20:22
  #2433 (permalink)  
 
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Spanish national arrested in Poland accused of spying for Russia. He is said to be a Russian who is suspected of being a GRU member.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...source=twitter

WARSAW/NABARNIZ, Spain, March 4 (Reuters) - Poland has arrested a Spanish national on suspicion of conducting intelligence activities for Russia, which could carry a 10-year prison sentence if he is found guilty, the Internal Security Agency (ABW) said on Friday.

The man, identified as an agent of Russia's military intelligence agency (GRU), was detained in Przemysl - near Poland's border with Ukraine on Sunday night, ABW said in a statement. It said he was of Russian origin.

His Spanish lawyer named him as Pablo Gonzalez, a reporter for several Spanish media including online newspaper Publico and TV station La Sexta, and demanded his immediate release.

Both outlets have recognised Gonzalez as having worked with them.

Gonzalez's wife Oihana Goiriena told Reuters she had not heard from her husband since he called to tell her of his arrest on Monday.
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 21:57
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Interesting analysis from former infantryman, now YT filmmaker

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Old 4th Mar 2022, 22:41
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Here is a reasonably objective analysis of whether or not Putin would use a tactical nuclear weapon in this conflict.
https://www.newscientist.com/article...ns-in-ukraine/
And worth noting that the Pentagon have set up a direct line to their Russian counterparts to aid deconfliction - and avoid escalation.
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Old 4th Mar 2022, 23:44
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The good thing that comes out of all this is having to shift troops to bolster their defences on the northern borders means they are unavailable to reinforce the army in the Ukraine.
To bolster their defences ?? Against a possible invasion of Russia by NATO, presumably ??
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 00:46
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I certainly welcome the news of the flow of military aid to the Ukrainian forces. Our hearts ache to help Ukraine more, but held back for fear uncontrollable escalation.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 00:55
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
To bolster their defences ?? Against a possible invasion of Russia by NATO, presumably ??
Whilst we in The West (and the vast majority of level-headed, but currently terrified of the idiot in charge, Russian military) know that NATO is a defensive alliance, old Stalin, I mean Putin, can't or won't seemingly accept it.

Given the current rhetoric coming from Putin, I wouldn't be surprised if he is sat in his bunker in the Urals, with maps spread about him with the fruits of his increasingly dangerous delusions, imagined directions of a NATO breakout, drawn all over them.
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 00:58
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When a bear is cornered, what is it capable of? When NATO is goaded hard enough, what is it capable of?
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Old 5th Mar 2022, 01:04
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Russian Air Force Su-25 Frogfoot

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