Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[FlightDetent]

Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements

...because it was a Special Heart Attack

OMG, so spot on.

Another point, Shoigu was bit of a Kardashian. There may be reasons both logical and inconsequential but the lack of appearances is seriously out of the ordinary.
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[NutLoose]

Well they have answered why the Russians have been unable to replenish tank stocks in Ukraine from their vast arsenal.

Look at this! #StandWithUkraine
Quote Tweet

Victor Kovalenko
@MrKovalenko
· 5h
The Russian Army command is failing to reinforce troops in #Ukraine with workable tanks and APCs from the storages because optics, electronics, engine parts on the majority of them were stolen. Source: Intel. Dept. of Ukr. MoD. [Thread]
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[MPN11]

That brings back memories of Del Boy's shipment of Russian video recorders! If it moves, they'll steal it to supplement their income and standard of living

I'm inclined to laugh, it wasn't in the middle of an on-going tragedy for both Ukraine and Russia.

[Usertim]

Kherson News

According to

Twitter

UAF want Kherson back.

According to my friend there ther are a ton of dug in troops, however she did say she say she saw 12 fully loaded IFV going along her road headed east (main road out of town). Lots of bombs ( to the south!) and aircraft today, not seen for a few weeks

[NutLoose]

The disappearing Russian leadership.

https://olgalautman.substack.com/p/n...utm_medium=web

I am reposting this interesting article that appeared earlier today in Moscow Times.

Moscow Times

Not only Sergei Shoigu fell out of the public field, but almost all the main security officials. We came to this conclusion after studying the reports in the media and official sources about the activities of Viktor Zolotov, Igor Kostyukov, Valery Gerasimov, and Alexander Bortnikov. They all disappeared at about the same time.

The head of the National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, disappeared on March 13, right after he went to the Cathedral of Christ the Savior and accepted the icon from the hands of the Patriarch himself. Then Zolotov complained to the Primate of the Russian Orthodox Church that in the war with Ukraine "not everything is going as fast as we would like." Prior to that, on March 11, Zolotov presented awards to the Russian Guardsmen who distinguished themselves in hostilities. There were no more videos of him.

The last photo with Zolotov hangs on the website of the Russian Guard in a publication dated March 22. It says that he held a working meeting in Moscow with the leadership of the department. At the same time, initially, the material appeared for some reason on the website of the Samara department of the Russian Guard. There were no videos or any comments from this event.

At the same time, after March 13, the name of Zolotov was mentioned in the news of the state media only in connection with the sanctions of Japan and the United States. On March 17, information appeared that Zolotov allegedly fired his deputy Roman Gavrilov. According to some reports, Gavrilov was his close friend and was "person number 2" in the Russian Guard. media claimed that Gavrilov was detained on suspicion of embezzling funds from the National Guard, which were intended for fighters fighting in Ukraine.

The name of the Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces Valery Gerasimovalso ceased to appear in the media. On March 12, he had a conversation with a colleague from Turkey, and on March 4 he discussed the situation in Ukraine with the Chief of the General Staff of the French Armed Forces, Thierry Burcar. There are no more messages, as well as photos or videos, with Gerasimov.

On March 24, the Pentagon announced that Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were refusing to speak to them on the phone. The last time they spoke was February 18.

There is no information about the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Igor Kostyukov. Recently, only the former Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov wrote about him. According to his sources, Kostyukov's health has "drastically deteriorated" - the military man is experiencing a "burning sensation in the heart."

Alexander Bortnikov appeared only at meetings of the Security Council led by Putin on March 24 and 11. At the same time, the director of the FSB was dressed in the same clothes (even the color of the tie was the same - red), behind him the same background, and the frame itself was exactly the same angle. On both broadcasts, Bortnikov appears only for a few seconds and does not utter a word. There is no more news about him.

Earlier, the media wrote that the head of the Ministry of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, had ceased to appear in public space since March 11. Sources close to the minister said he was "unwell and has heart problems."

After Shoigu was shown on video on March 24, he allegedly took part in a meeting of the Security Council with Putin. However, we found that the footage with the minister is very similar to the broadcast from a similar meeting on March 11th. The minister's tie has moved in the same direction, the background has not changed either. Mediazona came to the same conclusion.

[NutLoose]

It’s not looking good for Russia’s position, Japan pressing for their disputed islands being returned resulting in the Russian military having to “ hold an exercise” on the island and now Azerbaijan appearing to take advantage of Russian “peacekeepers” having apparently being deployed to Ukraine, it makes you wonder if the same may happen in Georgia as some of their Russian “Peacekeepers” have apparently also gone to the Ukraine.



Russia accuses Azerbaijan of violating ceasefire deal in Karabakh

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[Beamr]

Now the russkies are on phosphorous/thermite bombs.
From humanitarian perspective we are not very far from chem warfare.

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[Asturias56]

Interesting report by Nutloose. It's amazing when you look at history how a new war leads to the removal of a lot of VSO's (on both sides) - generally the people who get to the top in peace-time are unfit to run a hot war

[Old-Duffer]

It would make an interesting situation, if the Poles started to hold 'exercises' near Kalinagrad: nothing too 'hot' but sufficiently warm enough to see what Putin does.
Old Duffer

[Ninthace]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Now the russkies are on phosphorous/thermite bombs.
From humanitarian perspective we are not very far from chem warfare.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/st...52956070260741

The use of phosphorus munitions against military targets is not proscribed, sadly.

[henra]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Now the russkies are on phosphorous/thermite bombs.
From humanitarian perspective we are not very far from chem warfare.

From a military perspective rather another sign of desperation. Feels a bit like the Vietnam war in its final phase.

[NutLoose]

Update, sorry it’s a big one.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...sment-march-26

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 26
Fredrick W. Kagan and George Barros
March 26, 1500 ET

Russian forces continued their unsuccessful efforts to move into positions from which to attack or encircle Kyiv, claims by First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff Sergei Rudskoi on March 25 notwithstanding. The Russian military continues to concentrate replacements and reinforcements in Belarus and Russia north of Kyiv, to fight for positions on Kyiv’s outskirts, and to attempt to complete the encirclement and reduction of Chernihiv. Russian activities around Kyiv show no change in the Russian high command’s prioritization of the fight around Ukraine’s capital, which continues to occupy the largest single concentration of Russian ground forces in Ukraine. The Russians have not claimed to redeploy forces from Kyiv or any other part of Ukraine to concentrate on fighting in Donbas, and we have observed numerous indicators that they have not done so. The increasingly static nature of the fighting around Kyiv reflects the incapacity of Russian forces rather than any shift in Russian objectives or efforts at this time.

Russian forces will likely bisect the city of Mariupol in the coming days as they claim and will likely gain control of the city in the relatively near future. Fighting in Mariupol continues to be fierce, however, and Russian forces continue to suffer significant losses. The amount of combat power the Russians will be able to harvest from Mariupol once they gain control of the city will determine whether the city’s fall will allow the Russians to launch renewed large-scale offensive operations in Ukraine’s east. It remains unclear how badly damaged Russian units fighting for Mariupol are—or how much more damage they will incur in completing the capture of the city—but high-profile casualties in elite and conventional Russian combat units such as the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade and the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, both of which have lost commanders in the past few weeks, suggest that losses in such units are high.[1]

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct limited counter-attacks across the theater, most recently near Kharkiv. Ukrainian counter-attacks have been prudent and effective, allowing Ukrainian forces to regain small areas of tactically or operationally significant terrain without over-extending themselves.

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces continue their unsuccessful efforts to secure positions from which to attack and seize Kyiv despite the supposed reframing of the Russian military’s priorities by First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff Sergei Rudskoi on March 25.
• The Russians will likely make important progress in seizing the city of Mariupol in the coming days and will probably take the city in the near future. The scale of Russian losses in the fight for Mariupol will determine whether the city’s fall will permit Russia to renew large-scale combat operations in eastern Ukraine. It is too soon to tell, but current indicators suggest that Russian losses have been and will continue to be high.
• The Ukrainian General Staff continues to report on challenges Russia faces in finding both troops and equipment to continue the war. The General Staff reports generally match observed patterns and indicators within the Ukrainian battlespace and are likely largely accurate, although we have little independent verification of their details.
• The captured city of Kherson appears to be resisting Russian control in ways that are driving the Russian military and national guard to concentrate forces on securing it. The requirement to secure captured cities can impose a significant cost on over-stretched Russian forces and hinder their ability to conduct offensive operations.

Click here to expand map below.

The Ukrainian General Staff reports that the Russian military is continuing efforts to replace personnel and equipment losses but struggling to do so. The General Staff claimed on March 25 that Russia has established a base in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast to repair and rehabilitate equipment pulled from strategic reserves.[2] The General Staff asserted that much of Russia’s reserve equipment is unusable or in very poor states of repair, with essential gear—including engines—stripped out of many vehicles. The General Staff added on March 26 that the Russians are attempting to refurbish old T-72 tanks as part of this effort.[3] The General Staff also claimed that the Russian military is lowering its standards for conscripts and recruits and has been forced to use a higher proportion of conscripts in combat as it has suffered losses among its professional soldiers.[4] We have no independent confirmation of these reports, but they are consistent with observed patterns of Russian operations and losses in Ukraine and with ISW’s earlier assessment of the state of the Russian personnel reserve system.[5]

Morale problems within the Russian military are becoming more serious and apparent. Reports that the soldiers of a Russian unit killed their brigade commander by running him over with a tank and, more recently, that the commander of the 13th Guards Tank Regiment of the 4th Guards Tank Division (1st Guards Tank Army) committed suicide likely indicate a general breakdown of morale even among first tier Russian combat units.[6]

The Russians continue to try to concentrate forces for renewed fighting around Kyiv, however. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 26 that additional Russian forces from the Eastern Military District were being sent into Ukraine at an unspecified location.[7] Eastern Military District forces have been engaged exclusively in the Kyiv and Chernihiv region.

We do not report in detail on the deliberate Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure and attacks on unarmed civilians, which are war crimes, because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:

• Main effort—Kyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
• Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv;
• Supporting effort 1a—Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts;
• Supporting effort 2—Mariupol; and
• Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances northward and westward.

Main effort—Kyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis are aimed at encircling the city from the northwest, west, and east.

Subordinate main effort along the west bank of the Dnipro

Russian forces did not attempt any major offensive operations west of the Dnipro in the past 24 hours but are continuing to fight for positions in Irpin and around Hostomel.[8] Russian forces deny Ukrainian reports that they have been surrounded at Hostomel Airfield.[9] We assess that Russian forces are not yet fully encircled, but Ukrainian forces have created a Russian salient that is exposed from several directions and apparently under continued pressure. Russian forces continue to dig in around northwestern Kyiv and to shell Ukrainian-held positions without conducting significant offensive operations.[10]
Click here to expand map below.


Supporting Effort #3—Kherson and advances northward and westwards:

Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in the southern direction in the past 24 hours. The Ukrainian General Staff claimed on March 26 that the Russians have deployed all Rosgvardia units based in Crimea and/or located in Kherson, Donetsk, and Zaporizhiya Oblasts to suppress Ukrainian unrest in Kherson, Henichesk, Berdyansk, and some districts of Mariupol.[21] The General Staff further reported that the Russians are attempting to establish strict administrative and police regimes in these areas on March 26.[22] These reports appear to confirm statements by an unnamed US Department of Defense official that Kherson is no longer fully under Russian control.[23] There is no front line anywhere near Kherson City, so the assessment that the Russians no longer control it fully almost certainly rests on the existence of local Ukrainian partisan activity.

Immediate items to watch
Russian forces will likely capture Mariupol or force the city to capitulate within the coming weeks and have entered the city center;

Russian forces around Kyiv will likely continue efforts to hold against Ukrainian counter-attacks while also attempting to restart offensive operations on a limited scale;

Russian and proxy troops will continue efforts to seize the full territory of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but will not likely make rapid progress in doing so.

[MPN11]

No apology needed, NutLoose … your inputs and links are much appreciated.

[etudiant]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Update, sorry it’s a big one.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...sment-march-26

Cannot believe that the Russian main effort would continue to be Kiev, one bloody nose is surely enough.
Rather agree that they are likely to reinforce their drive around the eastern edge of Ukraine.
There they are making headway and appear to have trapped part of the Ukrainian forces in the north east, as indicated by the French situation reports
.https://www.defense.gouv.fr/ukraine-point-situation

[NutLoose]

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by etudiant

Cannot believe that the Russian main effort would continue to be Kiev, one bloody nose is surely enough.
Rather agree that they are likely to reinforce their drive around the eastern edge of Ukraine.
There they are making headway and appear to have trapped part of the Ukrainian forces in the north east, as indicated by the French situation reports
.https://www.defense.gouv.fr/ukraine-point-situation

I would imagine it’s tying down Ukrainian forces from reinforcing elsewhere, plus those troops that have come in from Belarus etc which would mean it would be difficult to redeploy them to where needed without retreating, possible reason why they are simply digging in?

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by Sts121

I wonder what the west or nato would actually do should Putin drop a small tactical nuke on some Ukrainian city?

Retaliate on a troop formation or warships at sea - there are a good number off Mariupol and Odesa;?

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by Old-Duffer

It would make an interesting situation, if the Poles started to hold 'exercises' near Kalinagrad: nothing too 'hot' but sufficiently warm enough to see what Putin does.
Old Duffer

Why not Lithuania too ? Both in response to the "worrying developments with Belarusian military movements"

[etudiant]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I would imagine it’s tying down Ukrainian forces from reinforcing elsewhere, plus those troops that have come in from Belarus etc which would mean it would be difficult to redeploy them to where needed without retreating, possible reason why they are simply digging in?

Makes sense, the Russian troops there are too few to really attack, but too many to ignore, so Ukraine has to maintain a blocking force.
There was a decent rail link between Kiev and Donetsk, would expect that both sides have plans for it.

[NutLoose]

This is seriously bad news for all of us.

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