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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 21st Mar 2022, 23:34
  #3481 (permalink)  
 
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Attrition is hard to account for when communication is lost with entire units.

Losses are a mixture of KIA, WIA, MIA including desertion or units deciding to lie low and surrender / capture.
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 00:32
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
Attrition is hard to account for when communication is lost with entire units.

Losses are a mixture of KIA, WIA, MIA including desertion or units deciding to lie low and surrender / capture.
and add in they might not be counting casualties from DNR/LNR, wagner, chechyans and some are refering the 'army' so other services like VDV, rossgaurdia, SOBR or naval infantry might not be counted
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 04:16
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Originally Posted by rattman
and add in they might not be counting casualties from DNR/LNR, wagner, chechyans and some are refering the 'army' so other services like VDV, rossgaurdia, SOBR or naval infantry might not be counted
Anything to make the body count metric increase, of course.

If I may offer a note of caution: if one focuses on the body count, one may think that by any objective measure one is winning a war, until one finds out that one isn't.
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The conflicts end, and its end state, remain in doubt.
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This caution, or this lesson (take it as you will) was brought to you by a numbers-focused gent named Robert McNamara, or rather, those who wish that learning from the lessons of history (that his approach resulted in) might be an ongoing proposition.

Keeping score is great for games of sport.
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 08:32
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I wonder how long it will be before regimes that rely on the support of Russia and its armed services start to suffer uprisings? Their armed support is probably being siphoned off to bolster the faltering progress against Ukraine and their opposition can see that and may be emboldened enough to take the opportunity to act against perceived vulnerabilities.
Putin may have sown the seeds of the rapid decline of Russian influence. If so what or who would fill the vacuum?
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 08:38
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Originally Posted by beardy
I wonder how long it will be before regimes that rely on the support of Russia and its armed services start to suffer uprisings? Their armed support is probably being siphoned off to bolster the faltering progress against Ukraine and their opposition can see that and may be emboldened enough to take the opportunity to act against perceived vulnerabilities.
Putin may have sown the seeds of the rapid decline of Russian influence. If so what or who would fill the vacuum?
Russia is too big to take over inteh conventional sense

It would be like the last time - a bunch of chancers , possibly military, backed by outsiders with money and /or arms. After 10 years it drifts back to the status quo - Russian dominated, people with a chip ontheir shoulders and a very big country to plunder
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 08:44
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Originally Posted by beardy
I wonder how long it will be before regimes that rely on the support of Russia and its armed services start to suffer uprisings? Their armed support is probably being siphoned off to bolster the faltering progress against Ukraine and their opposition can see that and may be emboldened enough to take the opportunity to act against perceived vulnerabilities.
Putin may have sown the seeds of the rapid decline of Russian influence. If so what or who would fill the vacuum?
Well the illusion of Russian strength has well and truly been dispelled in the minds of many. It may prompt a few thoughts about settling scores or resolving historical grievances.

The question for me is whether Russia itself will survive. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the federated states are thinking about their options, given the p*ss-poor performance of the country's military.
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 08:53
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
Anything to make the body count metric increase, of course.

If I may offer a note of caution: if one focuses on the body count, one may think that by any objective measure one is winning a war, until one finds out that one isn't.
Spoiler
 

The conflicts end, and its end state, remain in doubt.
Spoiler
 

This caution, or this lesson (take it as you will) was brought to you by a numbers-focused gent named Robert McNamara, or rather, those who wish that learning from the lessons of history (that his approach resulted in) might be an ongoing proposition.

Keeping score is great for games of sport.
Whilst shocking by western standards, I doubt if these numbers will give Vlad any sleepless nights. I reckon he'd be willing to sacrifice an order of magnitude more than this to achieve his aims.

As for keeping score, we also seem to be obsessed with pink areas on maps.
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 09:01
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The indications are that the Russians have realised that a war based on manoeuvre is beyond them and they are settling in for a long slog, which is not good news for anyone. This risks Ukraine being another Afghanistan or Vietnam, a steady drain on manpower and resources with no end state possible.
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 09:18
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
The indications are that the Russians have realised that a war based on manoeuvre is beyond them and they are settling in for a long slog, which is not good news for anyone. This risks Ukraine being another Afghanistan or Vietnam, a steady drain on manpower and resources with no end state possible.
That's assuming Ukraine allows them to settle. They've still to receive another $800 million of kit from the US, plus goodness knows what else has been promised.

It may be feasible for them to freeze the conflict in the south given the terrain, but the forested areas of the north present a huge challenge, particularly given the absence of air support and constrained supply routes.
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 09:32
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
The question for me is whether Russia itself will survive. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the federated states are thinking about their options, given the p*ss-poor performance of the country's military.
The biggest mistake we make is to think Russians think like us. They don't.
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 10:57
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loss clarifications

...
Thanks to everyone for the most helpful clarifications on loss figures. LFH.
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 12:14
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Blimey






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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 12:45
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
Whilst shocking by western standards, I doubt if these numbers will give Vlad any sleepless nights. I reckon he'd be willing to sacrifice an order of magnitude more than this to achieve his aims.

As for keeping score, we also seem to be obsessed with pink areas on maps.
There is some news/speculation that Belarus is going to join into the invasion. That's not good news. I wonder if NATO has a contingency op on the back burner in case the Belarus forces cross the border.
(My guess would be that if there's a contingency in place, the initial response will be air power based).
Not sure how one pressures Belarus to not do that.
What leverage does anyone have on them?
Caveat: this warning comes from Ukraine sources, and I am not sure how good of a source The New Statesman is for news.
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 12:48
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Belarus joining in? links to troop movements but not verified.


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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 13:21
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Oh, perfect. Another lunatic joining in. I suppose it was inevitable, given the general lack of progress by the RU ground forces.
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 13:37
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Doubling down?
The western Ukraine has the supply lines from the NATO countries, so the local Ukraine forces should be adequately provisioned to fend off any incursion.
Is the Russian expectation that expanding the war will overstretch the Ukraine forces?
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 13:54
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
There is some news/speculation that Belarus is going to join into the invasion. That's not good news. I wonder if NATO has a contingency op on the back burner in case the Belarus forces cross the border.
(My guess would be that if there's a contingency in place, the initial response will be air power based).
Not sure how one pressures Belarus to not do that.
What leverage does anyone have on them?
Caveat: this warning comes from Ukraine sources, and I am not sure how good of a source The New Statesman is for news.
There's been speculation about Belarus every since the first few days of the conflict. I think its a bit like the flotilla off Odesa, vaguely threatening but not really planning to get involved (and if they did they'd probably get spanked). Its useful in that it ties up Ukrainian forces, just in case.

Given how mutinous Belarus's armed forces have reportedly been, not to mention their railway workers and general public, its possible Lukashenko may be fearful of sending them out of the country and losing control.

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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 13:57
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Apparently the rail link between Belarus and Ukraine has already been shut down by Ukranian forces assisted by Belarusian rail workers.

https://www.railtech.com/infrastruct...ops/?gdpr=deny
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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 15:49
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Thermobarics being used by eastern separatists. First they shot down MH17, now they are using thermobarics. Once all this is over I do hope there will be appropriate punishment for these war criminals.

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Old 22nd Mar 2022, 17:23
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SU 25

Tough old planes !!!

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