Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Attrition is hard to account for when communication is lost with entire units.
Losses are a mixture of KIA, WIA, MIA including desertion or units deciding to lie low and surrender / capture.
Losses are a mixture of KIA, WIA, MIA including desertion or units deciding to lie low and surrender / capture.
and add in they might not be counting casualties from DNR/LNR, wagner, chechyans and some are refering the 'army' so other services like VDV, rossgaurdia, SOBR or naval infantry might not be counted
If I may offer a note of caution: if one focuses on the body count, one may think that by any objective measure one is winning a war, until one finds out that one isn't.
Spoiler
Spoiler
Keeping score is great for games of sport.
I wonder how long it will be before regimes that rely on the support of Russia and its armed services start to suffer uprisings? Their armed support is probably being siphoned off to bolster the faltering progress against Ukraine and their opposition can see that and may be emboldened enough to take the opportunity to act against perceived vulnerabilities.
Putin may have sown the seeds of the rapid decline of Russian influence. If so what or who would fill the vacuum?
Putin may have sown the seeds of the rapid decline of Russian influence. If so what or who would fill the vacuum?
I wonder how long it will be before regimes that rely on the support of Russia and its armed services start to suffer uprisings? Their armed support is probably being siphoned off to bolster the faltering progress against Ukraine and their opposition can see that and may be emboldened enough to take the opportunity to act against perceived vulnerabilities.
Putin may have sown the seeds of the rapid decline of Russian influence. If so what or who would fill the vacuum?
Putin may have sown the seeds of the rapid decline of Russian influence. If so what or who would fill the vacuum?
It would be like the last time - a bunch of chancers , possibly military, backed by outsiders with money and /or arms. After 10 years it drifts back to the status quo - Russian dominated, people with a chip ontheir shoulders and a very big country to plunder
I wonder how long it will be before regimes that rely on the support of Russia and its armed services start to suffer uprisings? Their armed support is probably being siphoned off to bolster the faltering progress against Ukraine and their opposition can see that and may be emboldened enough to take the opportunity to act against perceived vulnerabilities.
Putin may have sown the seeds of the rapid decline of Russian influence. If so what or who would fill the vacuum?
Putin may have sown the seeds of the rapid decline of Russian influence. If so what or who would fill the vacuum?
The question for me is whether Russia itself will survive. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the federated states are thinking about their options, given the p*ss-poor performance of the country's military.
Anything to make the body count metric increase, of course.
If I may offer a note of caution: if one focuses on the body count, one may think that by any objective measure one is winning a war, until one finds out that one isn't.
The conflicts end, and its end state, remain in doubt.
This caution, or this lesson (take it as you will) was brought to you by a numbers-focused gent named Robert McNamara, or rather, those who wish that learning from the lessons of history (that his approach resulted in) might be an ongoing proposition.
Keeping score is great for games of sport.
If I may offer a note of caution: if one focuses on the body count, one may think that by any objective measure one is winning a war, until one finds out that one isn't.
Spoiler
The conflicts end, and its end state, remain in doubt.
Spoiler
This caution, or this lesson (take it as you will) was brought to you by a numbers-focused gent named Robert McNamara, or rather, those who wish that learning from the lessons of history (that his approach resulted in) might be an ongoing proposition.
Keeping score is great for games of sport.
As for keeping score, we also seem to be obsessed with pink areas on maps.
The indications are that the Russians have realised that a war based on manoeuvre is beyond them and they are settling in for a long slog, which is not good news for anyone. This risks Ukraine being another Afghanistan or Vietnam, a steady drain on manpower and resources with no end state possible.
The indications are that the Russians have realised that a war based on manoeuvre is beyond them and they are settling in for a long slog, which is not good news for anyone. This risks Ukraine being another Afghanistan or Vietnam, a steady drain on manpower and resources with no end state possible.
It may be feasible for them to freeze the conflict in the south given the terrain, but the forested areas of the north present a huge challenge, particularly given the absence of air support and constrained supply routes.
The biggest mistake we make is to think Russians think like us. They don't.
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Blimey
Whilst shocking by western standards, I doubt if these numbers will give Vlad any sleepless nights. I reckon he'd be willing to sacrifice an order of magnitude more than this to achieve his aims.
As for keeping score, we also seem to be obsessed with pink areas on maps.
As for keeping score, we also seem to be obsessed with pink areas on maps.
(My guess would be that if there's a contingency in place, the initial response will be air power based).
Not sure how one pressures Belarus to not do that.
What leverage does anyone have on them?
Caveat: this warning comes from Ukraine sources, and I am not sure how good of a source The New Statesman is for news.
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Belarus joining in? links to troop movements but not verified.
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Oh, perfect. Another lunatic joining in. I suppose it was inevitable, given the general lack of progress by the RU ground forces.
Doubling down?
The western Ukraine has the supply lines from the NATO countries, so the local Ukraine forces should be adequately provisioned to fend off any incursion.
Is the Russian expectation that expanding the war will overstretch the Ukraine forces?
The western Ukraine has the supply lines from the NATO countries, so the local Ukraine forces should be adequately provisioned to fend off any incursion.
Is the Russian expectation that expanding the war will overstretch the Ukraine forces?
There is some news/speculation that Belarus is going to join into the invasion. That's not good news. I wonder if NATO has a contingency op on the back burner in case the Belarus forces cross the border.
(My guess would be that if there's a contingency in place, the initial response will be air power based).
Not sure how one pressures Belarus to not do that.
What leverage does anyone have on them?
Caveat: this warning comes from Ukraine sources, and I am not sure how good of a source The New Statesman is for news.
(My guess would be that if there's a contingency in place, the initial response will be air power based).
Not sure how one pressures Belarus to not do that.
What leverage does anyone have on them?
Caveat: this warning comes from Ukraine sources, and I am not sure how good of a source The New Statesman is for news.
Given how mutinous Belarus's armed forces have reportedly been, not to mention their railway workers and general public, its possible Lukashenko may be fearful of sending them out of the country and losing control.
Apparently the rail link between Belarus and Ukraine has already been shut down by Ukranian forces assisted by Belarusian rail workers.
https://www.railtech.com/infrastruct...ops/?gdpr=deny
https://www.railtech.com/infrastruct...ops/?gdpr=deny
Thermobarics being used by eastern separatists. First they shot down MH17, now they are using thermobarics. Once all this is over I do hope there will be appropriate punishment for these war criminals.