Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[Baldeep Inminj]

Originally Posted by pr00ne

I am sure that the Chancellor has been making similar arguments in the Treasury leading up to the Budget on March 23rd. Expect no increase in UK defence spending. Actually, that could be a GOOD thing, after all, the last MoD budget increase, the much vaunted £24 Billion increase, cost the RAF all 14 of its Hercules, 40 of its Typhoons, all 12 of it's Islander/ Defenders, all without replacement, and 3 BAE 146's, to be replaced by 2 Facon 900's.
On that basis if we had a £100 billion uplift as the Germans have announced, there would be no RAF left at all!

I had not thought about like that. You have a very good point - the government will always look for a reason to not spend money...but would it be politically unacceptable to leave the budget alone?

[Tartiflette Fan]

Touching upon the above there is a debate swelling in the French parliament about ammunition supplies and whether it really is 3 or 4 days munitions available for a major conflict .

https://www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...tions-20220315

[GlobalNav]

Originally Posted by etudiant

Does not the performance of the Russian military in this conflict indicate that NATO is if anything spending too much on defense?
If Russia's military cannot implement an effective attack after several months of preparation, does that not show the threat has been vastly overstated?

Absolutely not! Russian military incompetence, if it continues to bear out, may not have been anticipated, but is not necessarily a permanent truth. Putin’s immoral brutality, having absolutely no concern for innocent civilians, is deeply rooted and seems to be increasingly demonstrated and we can expect will continue with crescendo until he is permanently stopped. The West’s fear of nuclear retaliation for western intervention must be taken seriously, but it is also exactly the umbrella under which Putin operates with no practical or immediate consequences.

The West’s biggest failure is that it did not recognize or face up to this in a timely manner and at the very least, Ukrainians bear the sad consequences. It seems that all the West can do now is what little it is doing for Ukraine, rearm to prevent further aggressive adventures of the Russian monster and expand existing alliances to Scandinavia and countries bordering Ukraine.

[Timmy Tomkins]

Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj

I had not thought about like that. You have a very good point - the government will always look for a reason to not spend money...but would it be politically unacceptable to leave the budget alone?

Since 2010 Defence budgets were cut from 4% of GDP, to 2% (incidentaly NHS from 6% to 1%!!) and so Osborne & Cameron failed to see the possible ramifcations in adjusting priorities as they have. We are now left with the result. Any shouting about wonderful increases from the present government should be seen against those figures (IE< NHS now up to 1.5% of GDP and still dismal) so let's see what they do about defence.

[NutLoose]

Latest footage from Mariupol

Twitter

[NutLoose]

Film of the original helicopter attack formation of airborne troops enroute to Hostomel airport

Twitter

[dead_pan]

Did anyone catch the piece by Alan Little which did the rounds on various of the BBC news programmes yesterday? It was more than a little surreal, something one would have expected the Russian state media to be churning out. Strange times indeed.

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Latest footage from Mariupol

https://twitter.com/i/status/1505461949999501312

There's a great deal of analysis of these engagements online. For me, the second engagement looks particularly fraught for those troops seen in the video - they seem way too close to the vehicle being engaged by their 30mil gunner.

[NutLoose]

Forces have killed the commander of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army, Lt Gen Andrey Mordvichev, in an attack at Kherson airport. Highest ranking KIA in the war. 8th army commands the Russian forces in Donbass since 2017.

Senior losses as of the 19th apparently

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

There's a great deal of analysis of these engagements online. For me, the second engagement looks particularly fraught for those troops seen in the video - they seem way too close to the vehicle being engaged by their 30mil gunner.

I would imagine that is image compression due to using a zoomed in lens, as an example, see

Art and Structure: The Art of Photography: Wide & Telephoto

[Not_a_boffin]

Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins

Since 2010 Defence budgets were cut from 4% of GDP, to 2% (incidentaly NHS from 6% to 1%!!) and so Osborne & Cameron failed to see the possible ramifcations in adjusting priorities as they have. We are now left with the result. Any shouting about wonderful increases from the present government should be seen against those figures (IE< NHS now up to 1.5% of GDP and still dismal) so let's see what they do about defence.

Your numbers, like your logic are impenetrable. From memory, the last time the defence budget was anywhere near 4% of GDP was the late 80s.

I fail to see how a defence budget in the high £30's, low £40s of Bn pa - and acknowledged as barely scraping the 2% GDP target - is more (as a %age of GDP) than an NHS budget in the £150Bn pa range.......

[Usertim]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Latest footage from Mariupol

Apparently this is the same Azov battalion crew that also recorded the earlier crazy close range engagement a few days ago. I saw an interview with them earlier today , cannot find the link but the gunner is just 19.#
Translation of the audio in this video:

Operator1: I hope they disembarked! Where is it? Tank???
Operator2: F..., is it a tank? Aim there. There. Let's f... it
Operator1: Done.
Voice over radio: Retreating to [unclear name of a location]
Operator1 [shooting at APC]: Just to make sure. Oh oh oh. Tank is also burning. Good!
Operator2: That's all. Let's ...

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Confirmed losses etc

Russia - 1582, of which: destroyed: 748, damaged: 27, abandoned: 224, captured: 582

Tanks (251, of which destroyed: 100, damaged: 4, abandoned: 41, captured: 106)

Ukraine - 388, of which: destroyed: 153, damaged: 5, abandoned: 49, captured: 181

Tanks (67, of which destroyed: 23, abandoned: 11, captured: 31)

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html

JUST 2 DAYS LATER! remember these are confirmed with images

Russia - 1662, of which: destroyed: 800, damaged: 30, abandoned: 222, captured: 610

Tanks (263, of which destroyed: 109, damaged: 4, abandoned: 39, captured: 111)

Ukraine - 440, of which: destroyed: 178, damaged: 10, abandoned: 44, captured: 208

Tanks (71, of which destroyed: 24, abandoned: 9, captured: 36)

Assesment of how much they Russians are losing.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/03/15/how-many-tanks-does-russia-have-in-ukraine-and-how-many-have-they-lost-so-far/?sh=1b57b24d5682



..

[AndySmith]

This is a good source of aggregated information (with sources cited) updated on a daily basis:

https://www.understandingwar.org/

[rattman]

A pro putin media organisation released casualty figures. Claim 9,861 KIA, 16,153 WIA


This tweet came out a little after

A former internal affairs minister of #Ukraine
@AvakovArsen
shared the intercepted Russian military summary for March 18: Rus. Army troops killed 12,814. Private company Liga (former Vagner) troops killed 4,451. Total number ofservicemembers killed at war in Ukraine: 17,265.

[Lordflasheart]

Fog of War - Clarification needed please

...
Please excuse me folks ....

If you're going to post casualty or material loss numbers, (regardless of veracity or origin) would you please be kind enough to specify who is claiming what and to whom.

It may be clear to anyone in regular media convos, but I invite you to consider those amateurs who dip in and out of this very important and distressing war zone.

Many thanks. .... LFH
...

[Wokkafans]

There was this in Twitter.

Twitter

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Lordflasheart

...
Please excuse me folks ....

If you're going to post casualty or material loss numbers, (regardless of veracity or origin) would you please be kind enough to specify who is claiming what and to whom.

It may be clear to anyone in regular media convos, but I invite you to consider those amateurs who dip in and out of this very important and distressing war zone.

Many thanks. .... LFH
...

The material losses I quoted in red I have put the link in the original first post and quoted post on the update, the site shows all the losses etc and if you click on each one it gives you photo proof of it.

This is the link to the “ confirmed losses “

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html

[NutLoose]

Latest Kherson airfield satellite images show it appears to have been abandoned by the Russians.

Twitter

[airsound]

Nutty -

Latest Kherson airfield satellite images

And let's note that that tweet comes from the great Elliot Higgins (Mr Bellingcat), possibly the most trustworthy source for this kind of information.

airsound