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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 11th Mar 2022, 00:26
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
It may be an atrocity, I think it will probably go down as a war crime, but it's not genocide.
Please stop robbing that word of meaning by misusing it.
Russia is attempting conquest, not extermination. Genocide is about extermination.
Conquest by war gets people killed, unfortunately.
If the Russian program was for the extermination of Ukranians, then you could fairly charge the with genocide. And I'd join you with such voice as I have.
Weirdly, the claimed goal is to bring Ukraine (or parts of it) back into the Russian fold. That's a curious case of inclusion, not extermination.
(Granted, those assertions may be less than 100% honest, and my cynical old self sees this as a naked land grab).
I get the idea that Emperor Putin wants the Ukranians to be his subjects, not exterminated.

Thanks for the lecture on genocide. You are neither a lawyer or a human rights activist. My friend who prosecuted the Rawandan genocide does not agree with you...
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 00:39
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Originally Posted by Iain Atkinson
Just a quick question for the collective, if we can assume that the Tiffy force has been sent on a mission somewhere cold, whats the feasabilty of bringing the Tonka's back (again assuming you can still get crew) or are they all coke cans and razor blades?
Lots went to Cosford as training aids




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Old 11th Mar 2022, 01:52
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Originally Posted by TBM-Legend
Thanks for the lecture on genocide. You are neither a lawyer or a human rights activist. My friend who prosecuted the Rawandan genocide does not agree with you...
That was closer to it, yeah, and I've never objected to calling that attempt at genocide just that: and the political rhetoric in Rwanda certainly matched that intention. You are wrong in your using that as a comparisons, but you are most welcome for the education, since you obviously needed it also.
Originally Posted by NutLoose
hat is plain and simply extermination
No, it isn't, but it's still ugly as hell because it is war.
Sieges are a particularly brutal aspect of war that take what is bad about it and make it worse.
I suspect that once all of the dust settles and the shooting does stop, which it eventually will, what happend there in Mariupol will be entered into the list of war crimes that someone, or a bunch of someones, will have to answer for.
In simpler English for you Nutty: a horrible act can be an atrocity without being genocide.
I will now stop grinding that ax.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 11th Mar 2022 at 02:05.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 03:15
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Not sure why we should argue about the definition of genocide. What the Russians are doing, murdering innocent civilians in a war that has no moral justification, is a war crime, period end of sentence. What Hitler did to the Jews was genocide because he was trying to eliminate a race. Similar things have happened in Africa. That’s what the term genocide was meant to convey, but it’s not the only form of murder of innocents that deserves justice. Hitler, bombing London and other civilian centers with the express purpose of killing civilians, is not really genocide, he was not trying to eliminate all Britons from the face of the earth. I don’t recognize Putin as trying to eliminate all Ukrainians, but that doesn’t buy him a get out of jail free pass.

When the Son of Man holds court in that day, Putin and all others who have done what he is doing will be called to account and cast into the eternal lake of fire. I confess I’d like to see that happen right now.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 03:28
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
Not sure why we should argue about the definition of genocide. What the Russians are doing, murdering innocent civilians in a war that has no moral justification, is a war crime, period end of sentence. What Hitler did to the Jews was genocide because he was trying to eliminate a race. Similar things have happened in Africa. Thatís what the term genocide was meant to convey, but itís not the only form of murder of innocents that deserves justice. Hitler, bombing London and other civilian centers with the express purpose of killing civilians, is not really genocide, he was not trying to eliminate all Britons from the face of the earth. I donít recognize Putin as trying to eliminate all Ukrainians, but that doesnít buy him a get out of jail free pass.
Nobody participating in this thread has, as far as I can tell, offered him one.
When the Son of Man holds court in that day, Putin and all others who have done what he is doing will be called to account and cast into the eternal lake of fire. I confess Iíd like to see that happen right now.
I'd not mind seeing an accounting before that myself.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 04:05
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As long as Ukrainians can continue to destroy Russian armor and artillery as quickly as it is coming in, Vlad will eventually run out.

We are seeing a race to determine who still has sufficient effective assets when the other side runs out. But a single tank formation will not be enough to take the entire country. Vlad will need enough armor and artillery remaining to take and hold each city he wants.

Vlad's advisors might impress upon him the need to retain enough armor and artillery to hold on to what he seized before. Let's not forget that the Ukrainians now have abandoned armor at their disposal.

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Old 11th Mar 2022, 04:51
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
First analysis/count of losses of both sides that I have seen from an independent source ( I don't actually know who Oryx is, but they are presented as unaligned )
Here is the Oryx website https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...pment.html?m=1

As it says there those numbers are for vehicles with photo evidence, in fact all the photos are on the site.
"This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. "
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 07:43
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
As long as Ukrainians can continue to destroy Russian armor and artillery as quickly as it is coming in, Vlad will eventually run out.

We are seeing a race to determine who still has sufficient effective assets when the other side runs out. But a single tank formation will not be enough to take the entire country. Vlad will need enough armor and artillery remaining to take and hold each city he wants.

Vlad's advisors might impress upon him the need to retain enough armor and artillery to hold on to what he seized before. Let's not forget that the Ukrainians now have abandoned armor at their disposal.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out if Russian equipment losses do continue apace. So far there's been no real indication that other units from his military will be committed, just reports of Syrian and Wagner mercenaries and the "will-they-won't-they?" Belarussian forces. Maybe he's holding back in fear of trouble at home or in the various regions where he has his forces committed?

The flip-side is, I doubt the kit the Ukrainians have captured will make up their losses, let alone give them the means to mount a credible counter-offensive.

This latter point is vexing me somewhat - despite their incredible efforts, I can't see a way Ukrainians will be in a position to kick the Russians out of their country any time soon, unless NATO really opened the taps with military aid. And how then would Vlad react, faced with an even more ignominious defeat?
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 07:59
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The below is from today's BBC News website live feed. Does this further confirm the Russian military is struggling?

Posted at 8:44

Putin welcomes volunteers to help fight in Ukraine

We're now hearing Russian President Vladimir Putin has backed plans to send volunteer fighters to Ukraine.

Putin, speaking at a Russian security council meeting, said those who wanted to volunteer to fight with Russia-backed forces should be allowed to.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said there were 16,000 volunteers in the Middle East who were ready to come to fight with Russia-backed forces, Reuters news agency reports.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 08:33
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I wonder if Shoigu is bullsh*tting again with those numbers? Seems high.

Also, they do know its currently -10C in the east of the country?
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 08:48
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
I'd not mind seeing an accounting before that myself.
Facilitate the appointment, you mean?

CG
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 09:11
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
Not sure why we should argue about the definition of genocide. What the Russians are doing, murdering innocent civilians in a war that has no moral justification, is a war crime, period end of sentence. What Hitler did to the Jews was genocide because he was trying to eliminate a race. Similar things have happened in Africa. That’s what the term genocide was meant to convey, but it’s not the only form of murder of innocents that deserves justice. Hitler, bombing London and other civilian centers with the express purpose of killing civilians, is not really genocide, he was not trying to eliminate all Britons from the face of the earth. I don’t recognize Putin as trying to eliminate all Ukrainians, but that doesn’t buy him a get out of jail free pass.

When the Son of Man holds court in that day, Putin and all others who have done what he is doing will be called to account and cast into the eternal lake of fire. I confess I’d like to see that happen right now.

Indeed, and on that day, those among us who understand Christ's promises and Revelation will not see it happen because every tear will be wiped from our eyes and we will have ascended to a far, far, better place.

IG
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 09:31
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Maripol damage from the air

https://news.satnews.com/2022/03/09/...ck-on-ukraine/
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 09:34
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
It will be interesting to see how this plays out if Russian equipment losses do continue apace. So far there's been no real indication that other units from his military will be committed, just reports of Syrian and Wagner mercenaries and the "will-they-won't-they?" Belarussian forces. Maybe he's holding back in fear of trouble at home or in the various regions where he has his forces committed?

The flip-side is, I doubt the kit the Ukrainians have captured will make up their losses, let alone give them the means to mount a credible counter-offensive.

This latter point is vexing me somewhat - despite their incredible efforts, I can't see a way Ukrainians will be in a position to kick the Russians out of their country any time soon, unless NATO really opened the taps with military aid. And how then would Vlad react, faced with an even more ignominious defeat?
And at whet point to NATO say, Enough, we must wade in now? Credible intelligence says Poot is considering chemical weapons, which the Russians used very effectively in Syria
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 09:41
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I would imagine NATO wading in now would suit Vlad perfectly ...

"...We had it all in control then the big bad NATO came in ..."

Would be a perfect excuse for him to push some big red buttons!!
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 09:58
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Originally Posted by 622
I would imagine NATO wading in now would suit Vlad perfectly ...

"...We had it all in control then the big bad NATO came in ..."

Would be a perfect excuse for him to push some big red buttons!!
Apologies; this is not really aimed at you, but I do wish people would stop talking like this. The invasion and its justification prove that with complete control of domestic information, Putin does not need any 'excuses'. If he is prepared (or indeed wants) to use nuclear weapons to end a foreign war on favourable terms or as an elaborate suicide, then what NATO or the west does is irrelevant; the only alternative would be complete capitulation to whatever he wants. In short, it is a risk we need to take and his threats are not a reason for unilateral deescalation. What we need to do is match Russian escalation, whilst making it clear that (short of a direct attack on NATO territory) the Russian state is not under threat. It is vital that Putin finishes the war in a weaker position than when he started it. Any other outcome (particularly if derived from nuclear blackmail) will merely postpone a much worse conflict. I accept that if Western nations can avoid direct involvement it is much safer, but it should not be ruled out under all circumstances and Putin should know this.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 10:11
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Originally Posted by Imagegear
Indeed, and on that day, those among us who understand Christ's promises and Revelation will not see it happen because every tear will be wiped from our eyes and we will have ascended to a far, far, better place.

IG
Amen to that. We are in the presence of great Evil.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 10:29
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
It will be interesting to see how this plays out if Russian equipment losses do continue apace. So far there's been no real indication that other units from his military will be committed, just reports of Syrian and Wagner mercenaries and the "will-they-won't-they?" Belarussian forces. Maybe he's holding back in fear of trouble at home or in the various regions where he has his forces committed?

The flip-side is, I doubt the kit the Ukrainians have captured will make up their losses, let alone give them the means to mount a credible counter-offensive.

This latter point is vexing me somewhat - despite their incredible efforts, I can't see a way Ukrainians will be in a position to kick the Russians out of their country any time soon, unless NATO really opened the taps with military aid. And how then would Vlad react, faced with an even more ignominious defeat?
I agree they may not be able to mount a full counter offensive but given the right support they can give the bear severe anaemia to the point where he changes his terms or claims victory and retires to quell unrest on the home front.
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 10:47
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Its starting..

Angry Russians lose it with Putin Ė 'Frightening' Ukraine war openly attacked on state TV

RUSSIAN STATE TELEVISION CHANNEL Russia 1 has broadcast anti-war messages as its pundits go dramatically off message.

Pro-Russia host Vladimir Soloviyev has had two guests on his shows express negative views of the situation in Ukraine, comparing it to the disastrous Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

A separate Ministry of Defence channel, a serving Russian army officer, criticised the deaths of their soldiers in Ukraine, according to the Telegraph.

Mr Soloviyev had to interrupt guests during his primetime talk show who were speaking out against the war started by Putin, an offence punishable by up to 15 years in prison.

Filmmaker and state pundit Karen Shakhnazarov shared his opinion with Mr Soloviyev, stating: "I have a hard time imagining taking cities such as Kyiv.

"I can't imagine how that would look.

"If this picture starts to transform into an absolute humanitarian disaster, even our close allies like China and India will be forced to distance themselves from us.

"This public opinion, with which they're saturating the entire world, can play out badly for usÖ

"Ending this operation will stabilise things within the country."

Later during one of Russia's most-watched shows, 'An Evening with Vladimir Soloviyev', guest panellist and academic Semyon Bagdasarov said: "Do we need to get into another Afghanistan, but even worse?

"We don't need that.

"Enough already."
Ukraine: Angry Russians lose it with Putin Ė 'Frightening' war openly attacked on state TV | World | News | Express.co.uk
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Old 11th Mar 2022, 10:49
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And here is some more internal disension for Putin
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