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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 8th Mar 2022, 21:33
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Originally Posted by NutLoose

The pipeline map is extensive, plus there is LPG which can be brought in by ship.
The gas required is LNG or CNG, not LPG. It can be brought in by sea but require specialist ships, all of which are currently fully engaged carrying their regular cargoes. Also requires specialist port facilities. It will likely be possible for Europe to source sufficient gas from places other than Russia but it will take some time.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 21:39
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
My apologies, ..
and mine if my reply seemed too abrupt. I am rather pedantic, so this inference that the Israelis had suddenly had this "light-bulb" experience with regard to tactics rather high-lighted itself.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 21:43
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I won’t mention that I have been saying that from the very start, when Russia was discussing a peace keeping farce we should have put an opposing force into the Ukrainian held areas as a peace keeping force to prevent any expansion, and that idea got squashed in here,…….. oops I just mentioned it.
sorry Nutloose, but repeating it doesn't make it right. Early involvement would have made it far worse from the outset.
What is happening now is not good, but... putting boots on the ground in Ukraine at the start would have escalated to all out war by now. PUTIN had his mind set.

When you say "we should have put an opposing force...", who is the "we"? UK, UN, NATO ?

All we can do to avoid escalation is to give as much indirect support as possible and hope Russian populace see what is happening and overturn the war-monger.

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Old 8th Mar 2022, 21:45
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I for one fervently believe if we do not call his nuclear bluff and I believe it is, then Putin will use it over and over again as he now know’s the world will back down while millions are massacred, sorry if no one agrees but that’s how I ready. ..
I completely disagree. So far he has got his arse kicked, and I cannot imagine a worse position from which to initiate a huge bluff. That apart, unless he is going to simply say from his bunker " Give me Poland or I will nuke you ", wouldn't normal doctrine mean that he has to attack Poland first with conventional forces, before doing so, and it is likely to be a long time before he is in a position to do that.
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 21:56
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Poland's offer to give its Mig29's to the USA for use as they see fit is really an eye-opener. Personally I can only interpret it as Poland being sick to the back teeth with the USA saying "Poland could supply the Ukraine " and putting it in danger, hence passing the buck to the USA in an unprecedented manner. The fact that the USA say they had no prior notice indicates to me that this is a major case of Poland saying "Put Up or Shut Up and stop pissing us off"



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...d-Ukraine.html
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 22:12
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The Polish Mig's being offered to the USA were sold to them by Germany from DDR stocks for E 1 per piece;;

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._65051779.html
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 22:20
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People keep on saying that the Romanians have a load of Mig 29s. This was the lot at Mihail Kogălniceanu in September 2004. Not flown in over a year. Almost 18 years ago. Price? 10 Migs to a fairy SNEC..


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Old 8th Mar 2022, 22:24
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
The Polish Mig's being offered to the USA were sold to them by Germany from DDR stocks for E 1 per piece;;

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._65051779.html
Standard commercial terms and “due consideration”.

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Old 8th Mar 2022, 22:31
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Originally Posted by Cat Techie
People keep on saying that the Romanians have a load of Mig 29s.


Really ? I have only seen Bulgaria and Slovakia mentioned currently .
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Old 8th Mar 2022, 23:00
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Poland offers fighter jets to US in plan to help Ukraine (msn.com)WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland said Tuesday it would give all of its MiG-29 fighter jets to the U.S., potentially advancing an arrangement that would allow the warplanes to be passed along to Ukraine's military as it confronts invading Russian forces.

© Provided by Associated PressPolish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki holds a joint press conference with Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in the Government's official residence in Oslo, Tuesday, March 8, 2022. (Stian Lysberg Solum/NTB via AP)The United States did not immediately confirm the deal, although Western nations have been discussing possible ways to answer Ukraine's appeal for warplanes. Any such decision would be a morale booster for Ukraine as Russian attacks on its cities deepen the humanitarian catastrophe. But it also raises the risks of a wider war.

© Provided by Associated PressBritain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson, right, walks withPoland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki ahead of a plenary session of the Visegrad Four or V4 and UK, at Lancaster House, in London, Tuesday, March 8, 2022. The Prime Ministers of UK, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary met in London to discuss European security, Ukraine and the looming energy crisis. (Leon Neal/Pool Photo via AP)The Pentagon had no immediate comment on Poland’s announcement, and a senior U.S. diplomat expressed surprise.

“To my knowledge, it wasn’t pre-consulted with us that they plan to get these planes to us,” said U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland, who told lawmakers she learned of the proposal as she was driving to testify about the Ukraine crisis before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

“I look forward ... to getting back to my desk and seeing how we will respond to this proposal of theirs, to get the planes to us,” Nuland said.

Ukraine has been pleading for more warplanes and Washington has been looking at a proposal under which Poland would supply Ukraine with Soviet-era fighters and in turn receive American F-16s to make up for their loss. Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly Soviet-era fighter jets.

© Provided by Associated PressChildren warm up around a fire as they arrive in a humanitarian aid center, for displaced persons fleeing Ukraine, in Przemysl, Poland, Tuesday, March 8, 2022. U.N. officials said Tuesday that the Russian onslaught has forced more than 2 million people to flee Ukraine. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)The Polish Foreign Ministry announced in a statement that Poland was ready to deliver the jets to the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in Germany immediately and free of charge.

“At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities,” it said.

The Polish government also appealed to other owners of MIG-29 jets to follow suit.

Former Soviet-bloc NATO members Bulgaria and Slovakia also still have Soviet-made fighter jets in their air forces.

The handover of Poland's 28 Soviet-made MiG-29s would signal Western resolve to do more to deter Russia. Militarily, it would be unlikely to be a game-changer. The number of aircraft is relatively small. The MiG-29s also are inferior to more sophisticated Russian aircraft and could be easy prey for Russian pilots and Russian missiles.

Russia has warned that supporting Ukraine’s air force would be seen in Moscow as participating in the conflict and open up suppliers to possible retaliation.

It would also weaken Poland's own air force at a time of heightened danger in Eastern Europe.

A transfer of the MiGs to Ukraine is fraught with complications as neither NATO nor the European Union want to be seen as directly involved in the transaction, which will significantly raise already extreme tensions with Russia. The U.S. has no plan to directly transfer the planes to Ukraine.

In order to maintain the pretense that NATO and the EU are not direct participants in the Ukraine conflict, U.S. and Polish officials have been considering a variety of options. One begins with the “donation” of Poland’s MiGs to the United States, as Poland announced on Tuesday.

Under one scenario that has been floated, Poland would deliver the fighter jets to the U.S. base in Germany, where they would be repainted and flown to a non-NATO, non-European Union country. Ukrainian pilots would then come to fly them to Ukraine, under that proposal.

No country has been publicly identified as a transit point, but Kosovo, a non-aligned country that is very friendly with the United States, has been mentioned as one of several nations that might be willing to serve as a middleman.

Poland had been asking for the U.S. to provide it with F-16 fighter jets to replace the MiGs.

F-16 production is backlogged, however, and the next recipient in line for new deliveries is Taiwan, which is facing renewed threats from China and has strong support from both parties in Congress.

In its statement, the Polish government specifically asked for “used” planes, a distinction that would allow the Biden administration to bypass congressional opposition to making Taiwan wait to receive its F-16s.

Earlier Tuesday, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said his country would stand by Poland if it handed over the jets, noting that it could face the “direct consequence” of its decision.

“And so we would protect Poland, we’ll help them with anything that they need,” Wallace said on Sky News.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said any decision about delivering offensive weapons must be made unanimously by NATO members.

“This is why we are able to give all of our fleet of jet fighters to Ramstein, but we are not ready to make any moves on our own because ... we are not a party to this war,” he said.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Tuesday that he believed the aid that Congress hopes to approve later this week for Ukraine will include loan guarantees to help NATO allies replenish their air forces after giving MiGs to Ukraine.

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Old 8th Mar 2022, 23:00
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Looks like the US transferring the MiG-29s is not going to happen.

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Old 8th Mar 2022, 23:36
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What they defo do have now are NLAWs, after re-watching it i think he hits an aerial in second clip.
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 00:47
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Originally Posted by TEEEJ
Looks like the US transferring the MiG-29s is not going to happen.

https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/s...33459972800527
I short hand, PFO.

The transfer has become a political hot potato. No wonder, that is how it started. Now that Zelensky has aired the request multiple times, the western leaders are forced on the back foot needing to surf the public opinion but unable to spin it.

From practical viewpoint, the use of the planes after any such transfer has limited potential.

The lack of RUS superiority does not mean UKR has it, by all accounts the sky is too hot for anyone.

Despite the extensive micro reporting, we have not seen much of the UKR airborne forces in action at all. They would need to engage over a territory already seized by the enemy who is disproportionately equipped with more than matching AA systems.

An ​​additional angle, yellow on yellow becomes a problem not only because the AA kills their own but also because they will be hesitant to aim. The present layout enables launching against anything that flies - a plan simple enough for a multilayered battlefield.

Last edited by T28B; 9th Mar 2022 at 16:25. Reason: dead space removed
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 03:47
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Originally Posted by FlightDetent

From practical viewpoint, the use of the planes after any such transfer has limited potential.
​​​​​
And you only have to look at what Russia did to the airport at Vinnytsia on Saturday - which I suspect was a warning
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 04:22
  #2815 (permalink)  

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Unfortunately the dominance against civilian targets is absolute.

Note the difference of tone, president Zelensky addressing the members of Parliament in the UK:


And his home audience (subtitled).

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...t_in_comments/

On the 8th March which in the east is a very happy and noble holiday for historical reasons, in the second half the anger of desperation bursts through.

​​​​​Our (western) media are only picking what attracts and pleases their audience.

​​​​​
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 04:31
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Keep posting NutLoose. I follow every one of your links and would have missed so many things if you hadn't of put them up.
Cheers Paul
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 07:23
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Just following up some posts from yesterday about snipers and anti-materiel Here is a Barrett being carried around.


Also seems TAC-50 is also in operation with UAF - according wiki.
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 07:43
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NO FLY ZONE
I have just been listening to Sir Chris Deverell backing a No Fly Zone in Ukraine.

Perhaps he ,or someone, could address the following :

How would a NFZ stop the missile/artillery barrages destroying Ukraine cities ?

How would a NFZ stop Russian bombers blitzing Ukraine cities - the distances are simply too short for effective intercepts ?

To achieve Air Supremacy -required to establish a NFZ - we would have to stop Russian bombers / fighters taking off from nearby airfields in Russia . This would necessitate destroying airfields and radar control sites in mother Russia !

Is this really a good idea ?

Last edited by T28B; 9th Mar 2022 at 16:26. Reason: removed dead space
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 07:46
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Really ? I have only seen Bulgaria and Slovakia mentioned currently .
Yes, because only Poland, Slovakia & Bulgaria are still actively flying them, the other countries like Romania that did have them, have all long since stopped flying them and parked them up or scrapped them for parts to those that are still flying them.
Poland were due to retire all theirs by end of next year, as were Slovakia, with new build F-16's for Slovakia, and F-35's for Poland to go along with the F-16's they already have.
Bulgaria can't afford to replace their handful of MiG-29, and were set to continue to fly them for another 5 years or more.
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 07:57
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Sounds like Poland pulled a fast one with those MiG 29s, have got some nice F16s in exchange.

I know it will "politically" difficult for the US to supply them direct to Ukraine, but could Ukraine simply purchase them (if only for a nominal sum)? After all they've been buying weapons from other sources (e.g. Turkey) with no real blowback. Failing that, could they be snuck in in ones and twos across the border if only to replace attritional losses?
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