Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[Flyhighfirst]

Originally Posted by Beamr

yes, that is including
1500 NLAW's
2500 assault rifles plus ammo
70000 food rations (battlefield)

The amount of NLAWS in Ukraine right now must be staggering! Just in the last week I have seen posts of close on 8000 being delivered from numerous countries. Surely they are getting them faster than they can use them. Mind you it’s a good problem to have. Better that than they other way around.

A multi mile long convoy just sitting outside Kiev. Surely that would be a target rich environment, or am I missing something?

[Flyhighfirst]

Originally Posted by NAROBS

With a 17 mile tail back of Russian Military vehicles waiting to get into the Kiev Hilton and the SSNs setting to sea, one wonders how many of the provisions of the UN Charter and associated conventions have to be broken before they exclude Russia from the Security Council ?:-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charte...United_Nations

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_war_theory

Unprovoked invasion,

Making war against Civilians

Proportionality of action.

First they would need to be proven to have been broken. Russia would just say they haven’t. Job done case closed. As a permanent member they have the final say.

Everyone knows the UN doesn’t work, but what do you replace it with? Bearing in mind the structure has to be something that the superpowers would agree to sign up to.

[Cat Techie]

Did what they needed to do against MRLS attack. Hit the deck. 107mm rockets? The things imbed into the ground and usually a cone of shrapnel fires up. On the deck, you have to be unlucky to be hit. Jon Allen Butterworth lost his arm with a 250mm rocket landing next to him out in Basrah. He was laying down. If he had been standing, he would have been dead. Shockwave took his arm off. Alas that video takes me back to this week 14 years ago almost to the night (which it was as it was a leap year 29th) when I was with the crew of a C17 at Basrah doing the taxi run for them. Just dropped them at Met when the IDF alarm went off. Then a good salvo of incoming landed, most on the RAF accommodation. All clear I got the crew back to the 17 and returned to the office to find the guys on the net hearing the T1 casualty found and realising it was one of two 903 EAW personnel critically injured. It was the morning we found out it was Baz that had died. I feel sorry for all the Ukrainians facing that rubbish now.

[ORAC]

BREAKING - Turkey has warned both Black Sea and non-Black Sea countries not to pass warships through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits.

The 1936 Montreux Convention allows Turkey to limit naval transit of its straits during wartime

[ORAC]

Long thread on the first 96 hours of the war - worth reading in full.

https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/st...022940167?s=21

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst

The amount of NLAWS in Ukraine right now must be staggering! Just in the last week I have seen posts of close on 8000 being delivered from numerous countries. Surely they are getting them faster than they can use them. Mind you it’s a good problem to have. Better that than they other way around.

A multi mile long convoy just sitting outside Kiev. Surely that would be a target rich environment, or am I missing something?

All of them will never see the enemy (you need to spread them and try to anticipate where the enemy will show up), then some don't hit the enemy, so in practice you'll need plenty to make it matter.
Also, you'll need to get up close and personal, say 50 to 150 meters in distance. Can be more, but there are limits like woods, buildings etc.
In essence, with 10k NLAW's you won't get 10k kills.
But it is much more than with no NLAW's at all, and opportunistic chances rise as there are plenty around.
note that Ukraine is a BIG country. 10k NLAWs aren't enough to be delivered everywhere.

[SLXOwft]

ICC has opened an investigation

"I have reviewed the Office's conclusions arising from the preliminary examination of the Situation in Ukraine, and have confirmed that there is a reasonable basis to proceed with opening an investigation. In particular, I am satisfied that there is a reasonable basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine in relation to the events already assessed during the preliminary examination by the Office. Given the expansion of the conflict in recent days, it is my intention that this investigation will also encompass any new alleged crimes falling within the jurisdiction of my Office that are committed by any party to the conflict on any part of the territory of Ukraine." ICC Prosecutor, Karim A.A. Khan QC

https://www.icc-cpi.int/Pages/item.a...tement-ukraine

[pr00ne]

Originally Posted by Beamr

All of them will never see the enemy (you need to spread them and try to anticipate where the enemy will show up), then some don't hit the enemy, so in practice you'll need plenty to make it matter.
Also, you'll need to get up close and personal, say 50 to 150 meters in distance. Can be more, but there are limits like woods, buildings etc.
In essence, with 10k NLAW's you won't get 10k kills.
But it is much more than with no NLAW's at all, and opportunistic chances rise as there are plenty around.
note that Ukraine is a BIG country. 10k NLAWs aren't enough to be delivered everywhere.

NLAW is only part of what is being delivered, in huge numbers. At least 6 nations are supplying Javelin, other ATGW systems are being supplied by many other nations, plus Stinger and other hand held SAM's.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by pr00ne

NLAW is only part of what is being delivered, in huge numbers. At least 6 nations are supplying Javelin, other ATGW systems are being supplied by many other nations, plus Stinger and other hand held SAM's.

Absolutely. But the question regarded NLAW's.

[dead_pan]

Interesting

Twitter

[pr00ne]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Absolutely. But the question regarded NLAW's.

And the answer makes no sense by being restricted purely to NLAW, as the Ukrainians are NOT restricted to NLAW.

[Cat Techie]

C RAM

Originally Posted by NAROBS

At some point the powers that be installed mortar tracking radar and gatekeepers at the airport. I think they helped, but were not always 100% effective.
Better than nothing as far as the Ukranians are concerned.

True, C-RAM Phalanx out in Basrah was never 100% in even picking up incoming and sometimes the quantity of incoming would cause the system to crash. Remember the 23 bangs over the fence one morning during the first week I was out there. C-RAM was swamped. I do also remember the time C-RAM hit incoming and popped open the rocket propellant casing. Round became a large spinning Catherine wheel, still at high sub sonic velocity, but being able to be heard like an incoming artillery shell. That was scary and had me crawled up into a little ball in my Stonehenge. Suspect any radar source would also see an AR missile coming its way.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by pr00ne

And the answer makes no sense by being restricted purely to NLAW, as the Ukrainians are NOT restricted to NLAW.

of course there could be an addition in the answer: "fortunately Ukraine is being delivered a multitude of other weaponry that uplifts the total performance capability."
ok?

[pr00ne]

Originally Posted by Beamr

of course there could be an addition in the answer: "fortunately Ukraine is being delivered a multitude of other weaponry that uplifts the total performance capability."
ok?

Indeed! That would be very true.

[Flyhighfirst]

Originally Posted by NAROBS

Well, for starters, on some issues now, there are multiple videos, from a multitude of sources, showing the evidence and, no doubt, expert witnesses could be sub peoned to verify (Or otherwise) their versimilitude.

And then there's always the acts of omission. Things that should have been done, by a supposed honest injun, before, during and after to avoid, minimise or mitigate adverse effect, but which weren't. Simple enough to ascertain if it involves interactions with third party institutions.

Very true for the international court. But the post you quoted was referring to someone’s post asking why the Russians couldn’t be
kicked off the UN council because of war crimes.

Doesn’t matter how
many witnesses you have then. They could stand up and admit to anything and then veto any resolutions. Again we are talking about the UN here not the courts.

The international court is a complete separate body to the UN.

[charliegolf]

Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst

The international court is a complete separate body to the UN.

Going with a guess here, but the Russkies probably won't be attending court, what with not recognising it and all?

CG

[tartare]

Noting that it may be selective filming - many of these captured Russian soldiers seem very young.
Appear to be 17-18 roughly.

[MightyGem]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Smoking can be bad for your health, mind you picking up a live mine from under a bridge and moving it at the same time is definately bad for your health lol

Not really, unless it's been booby trapped. Picking one up from a road surface and moving out of the way wouldn't be a problem.

[ORAC]

Ukraine International Legion…..

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/st...091986944?s=21

[tdracer]

Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst

Very true for the international court. But the post you quoted was referring to someone’s post asking why the Russians couldn’t be
kicked off the UN council because of war crimes.

I saw where Ukraine is trying to make the case that Russia isn't a legitimate member of the UN Security Council. Basically, the UN charter specifies the Soviet Union - a collection of 13 states - and when the Soviet Union fell apart, Russia wasn't entitled to unilaterally take its place.
I'm not optimistic that they'll win, but it might be good for some popcorn.