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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 9th Mar 2022, 16:24
  #2861 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by El Grifo
No official confirmation but likely !
Finding nothing under Ukrainian Artillery, but would welcome further info Nutloose !

El Grifo
try these links
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 16:41
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Thanks Nutloose, but the question was :-
Why is Ukraine not retaliating by shelling Russian targets outwith their own borders !
The bulk of these targets appear to be within Ukrainian Borders !
Correct me If I am mistaken.
It would not be the first time, or the last !

El Grifo
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 16:47
  #2863 (permalink)  
 
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Probably because they would then be seen as aggressors as it would be plastered over every Russian media, and if Belarus it might bring them into the conflict as well, I often thought a target that would have been worth destroying would be the land bridge into Crimea as it would stall the resupply efforts.
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 17:04
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That is sbout as much as I can make of it Nutloose !
It kind of weakens the case for NATO intervention and No Fly Zone all the same.
Most of us understand how that would end.
Thanks
El Grifo
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 17:06
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Ukraine maternity hospital 'destroyed' by Russian shelling

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60675599

President Volodymyr Zelensky said children were under the wreckage, and called on Western leaders to impose a no-fly zone.


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Old 9th Mar 2022, 17:13
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Here's a video of the hospital. Change the name to your local childrens hospital and read again. Gives one some perspective.

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Old 9th Mar 2022, 17:15
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Only notable attack to rus territory that I was aware of was Millerovo airfield in the early days , there are some alleged videos of that which was a missile strike.

As far as bridges go I am not at all sure why Ukraine did not drop the Antonovoski bridge over the dnieper

If they had the situation would look different in the south. It can be by intention to dissipate russian forces, or just because the bridge is too damn big n tough. They did blow plenty of other bridges in the Kherson area on the first 2 days , notably the one where the trooper gave his life to manually detonate. That whole area is full of tributaries and loops of the main river.

I am not so sure they will be so reticent if orc forces reach the dnieper crossings in more central areas

Last edited by Usertim; 9th Mar 2022 at 17:28.
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 17:33
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From NL's second link above:
Russian D-30 artillery formation reportedly destroyed. Ukraine was given AN/TPQ-30 radars which would help with counter-battery operations. They also have their own 1L220UK radar systems.


Lovely to see the Ukrainians putting counter-battery equipment to good use. To Biden: Send lots more Pronto!
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 17:40
  #2869 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
that Angela Merkel - long praised as the most intelligent and influential European politician/leader
Please, without the word mis-guided the picture is really skewed. Praised by people whose short-sighted ideas she brought to life.


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Old 9th Mar 2022, 17:42
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/202...weapons-video/

No need to worry about nukes , a new variant is more likely to appear first . Radio silence from the evil dwarf that funded these secret labs all over the world and lied to two Presidents and Congress about the work he was funding .
A biological War is more likely now . We will know once the next variant appears or maybe they will not release the next batch .
Keep in mind that the Chinese vaccinated one million soldiers with in six weeks of the first outbreak of SARS 2 , and the Russians had their vaccines ready surprisingly quicker than many thought possible or probable given their limited funding , it is almost as if they had the same infiltration level of intelligence operations similar to those they had during the developmental stages of the early nuclear devices .
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 17:51
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Perhaps you need reminding that Zelensky signed the renegotiated Steinmeier Formula in 2019 agreeing to recognise the independent status of Donbas which he has reneged on because he subsequently discovered he didn't have the support of his people. ( see link )

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-in...utonomy-donbas
TF. Interesting link; and although I agree with a lot of what you have been saying, I want to challenge 'independent status' and 'reneged'.

The formula would have lead to autononomy within Ukraine and Ukrainian national control of the whole border. Unlike the UK where parliament only has the right to delay ratification of treaties, the Ukrainian parliament has the sole right to ratify. Give Ukrainian legal opinion appears to consider the Budapest Memorandum satisfies all the criteria under international law to be a treaty, I am sure the view of the formula would be the same. Even if it didn't amount to a treaty it included terms which would require changes to the Ukrainian Constitution - which can only occur if parliament passes a law for a referendum and the referendum vote agrees. Zelenskyy knew from the reaction he would lose, a bitter pill for a man whose election platform was ending the civil war. Funny thing democracy, those governing require the consent of the people. Not an idea Putin V V is happy with. It also has implications for any demands Zelenskyy's government is forced to accept.

I found the embeded link to a story on the reaction informative https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-agrees-to-steinmeier-formula-green-lights-elections-in-occupied-donbas.html

It reminds me of the USA's treaties with the people whose lands it was stealing in the 19th Century, the US government used alleged breaches as a justification for attacking Native Americans, the US Senate had refused to ratify these treaties and so they weren't binding and the US happily ignored the terms.

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan
Interesting schematic giving this think-tank's appreciation of risk/value of different military possibilities inc NFZ

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/cont...r-has-answers/
I'm surprised they see an NFZ as the most militarily effective, would it be inforceable from within Ukraine and NATO airspace without interdicting AAM systems on Russian and Belarussian territory?

In spite of SV's insinuation, I have been reading the thread, however contrary to my wish that Ukraine can resist, I don't believe the undoubted successes the Ukrainians have been having in slowing the Russian advances are sustainable. I don't think Zelenskyy does either and that is why he is desparate to get NATO (or indeed Putin) to cross the line in the sand.

Yesterday the US media was quoting as 'senior defense official' as saying:
  • 'Nearly 100% of Russian forces assembled for the invasion have been sent into Ukraine, and about 95% of the combat power assembled is still “intact'.
  • Russian troops are advancing on Kyiv from three sides, with a new force from the east about 37 miles outside of Kyiv.
  • One contingent of Russian forces headed for Kyiv from the north is “stuck” in Chernihiv and “can’t get past it,” according to the official.
  • Most of Ukraine is under threat from Russian surface to air missiles, but Russia has not achieved air superiority, and Ukraine can still fly aircraft and conduct viable and effective missile defense.
For example (1.35pm EST March 8) https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbess...kraine-russia/

Given its aircraft and air defence systems are of Soviet/Russian origin and many of the Ukrainian defence factories are in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Kyiv Oblasts the ability to rearm and repair them must be impaired to say the least.
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 18:55
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Originally Posted by SLXOwft
TF
Yesterday the US media was quoting as 'senior defense official' as saying:
  • 'Nearly 100% of Russian forces assembled for the invasion have been sent into Ukraine, and about 95% of the combat power assembled is still “intact'.
  • Russian troops are advancing on Kyiv from three sides, with a new force from the east about 37 miles outside of Kyiv.
  • One contingent of Russian forces headed for Kyiv from the north is “stuck” in Chernihiv and “can’t get past it,” according to the official.
  • Most of Ukraine is under threat from Russian surface to air missiles, but Russia has not achieved air superiority, and Ukraine can still fly aircraft and conduct viable and effective missile defense.
t.
I am not too taken with unnamed sources, and the about 95% of the combat power assembled is still “intact' also seems unlikely gives news reports and videos, plus interviews with captured troops. The UK CDS, Sir Tony Radakin gave an interview at the week-end where he said that Russian losses were approaching 10% for the invasion force and that this was the level at which they broke/became ineffective ( unsure of exact words ). That convoy stuck outside Kiev - 15 000 men - could realistically be called a total loss because of immobility, out of fuel and food, soldiers camping in the woods, in sub-zero temperatures, probably without right clothing etc.
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 19:01
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Originally Posted by fitliker
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/202...weapons-video/

No need to worry about nukes , a new variant is more likely to appear first . Radio silence from the evil dwarf that funded these secret labs all over the world and lied to two Presidents and Congress about the work he was funding .
A biological War is more likely now . We will know once the next variant appears or maybe they will not release the next batch .
Keep in mind that the Chinese vaccinated one million soldiers with in six weeks of the first outbreak of SARS 2 , and the Russians had their vaccines ready surprisingly quicker than many thought possible or probable given their limited funding , it is almost as if they had the same infiltration level of intelligence operations similar to those they had during the developmental stages of the early nuclear devices .
Had they logged on to website of the US Embassy in Kyiv they would have found out what this actually is about, there is an article about it announcing the start of the project, Been up and running since 2011 IIRC and is nothing to do with bio weapons.
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 19:09
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
By using up their older tanks, bar the fuel issues, I can understand the reliability issues, mind you it wouldn’t surprise me if the newer ones were poor quality too.
It’s almost as if the believed this will be a walk over, let’s use or older kit, that way if we burn through it, it does not matter, we will win on the cheap,

I am so glad they underestimated the opposition, it reminds me of the Israelis on the Golan heights, out gunned and out numbered they realised the command tanks had extra aerials to receive and transmit so killed those first, the rest was easier.
All the tanks captured or destroyed were modernised and in pretty good nick.
The idea that there are thousands of tanks in reserve is standard Russian Potemkin strategy. During the collapse of the Soviet Union there was more theft and corruption than even todays crooked ways.
in one instance a general sold a trainlioad of steel pipes for scrap. They were tank barrels.
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 19:10
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Another piece of Ukranian propaganda ( at least if you believe the IAEA ) designed to stampede the West over fears of Chernobyl radiation: it's just not very sophisticated. Since this is aimed at the West, they should know it's going to be juxtaposed with something like an IAEA comment which says it's not true, which hurts them and their cause by raising the level of scepticism about their statements.

" “Emergency diesel generators are switched on at the site to supply power to safety-critical systems. In case of trouble-free operation, the stock of diesel fuel on diesel generators will be enough for 48 hours.Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said that after the 48 hours were up, “cooling systems of the storage facility for spent nuclear fuel will stop, making radiation leaks imminent.”

However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
there was enough water in the spent fuel pools for the fuel rods to cool sufficiently to avoid an accident. It referred back https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-8-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine on 3 March which said that due to the amount of time since the Chernobyl disaster in 1986, the spent fuel had cooled down enough that “the pool is sufficient to maintain effective heat removal without the need for electrical supply”."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-warns-ukaine
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 19:49
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UK MoD Facebook and Twitter post/tweet DI stating Russia has confirmed it is using thermobaric rockets

https://www.facebook.com/theministryofdefence

'The Russian MoD has confirmed the use of the TOS-1A weapon system in Ukraine. The TOS-1A uses thermobaric rockets, creating incendiary and blast effects.
Watch the video below for more information about this weapon and its devastating impact.'
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 20:03
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UTTER drivel.

You really think every Bio-Lab is working on Bio-Weapons?

Go away and have a good word with yourself you fool.
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 20:08
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TF - I hope you and the CDS are right.

Was it this one 'lead elements decimated' ?

Whole CDS interview can be accessed here https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod...rning-06032022 if you have a BBC Account (not sure if UK only) starts 30 minutes in.

CDS Sky Interview

Although I expect it was brief, I would have liked to have been a fly on the wall when he had an audience of HMQ today.
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 20:13
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Originally Posted by ExAscoteer2
UTTER drivel.

You really think every Bio-Lab is working on Bio-Weapons?

Go away and have a good word with yourself you fool.
Very much agree with you ExAscooteer, that particular “news” site seems dubious to say the least, and I will never believe a word that originates from that Vipers mouth.
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Old 9th Mar 2022, 20:15
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
Had they logged on to website of the US Embassy in Kyiv they would have found out what this actually is about, there is an article about it announcing the start of the project, Been up and running since 2011 IIRC and is nothing to do with bio weapons.

Details here:

https://ua.usembassy.gov/embassy/kyi...163.1646856794
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