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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 29th Apr 2022, 02:27
  #4861 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
I wonder how they are going to launch them? Scaffolding on the back of a truck or a Hi-lux? As far as I know, we have no ground based launch systems in service. Are they effective against maritime targets in their current configuration or will they need a software mod?
probably from their one owner predators that are coming.

But in reality apparently the UK has rapidly developed, prototyped and delplyed ground mounts for vehicles to be deployed with them
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 02:39
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Originally Posted by Lookleft
According to the ISW they have estimated that Russia has used 70% of their cruise missile stocks.
Will they fire what they have left and go home or use the big bangs ?
That chip shortage is affecting other weapons systems as well . Some people are not going to get new cars or trucks this year if the chip shortage doesn’t get sorted . Re-starting a production line that has been shut for six years will present unusual issues with Covid to make new missiles might be a challenge . Toshiba has a few fully automated factories that could do the work . I wonder if they would be allowed to bid on the contracts .
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 02:56
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
I wonder how they are going to launch them? Scaffolding on the back of a truck or a Hi-lux? As far as I know, we have no ground based launch systems in service. Are they effective against maritime targets in their current configuration or will they need a software mod?
I noted it said surface, not land, so I did wonder if it was on a ship mount.

..

Last edited by NutLoose; 29th Apr 2022 at 10:15.
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 04:36
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Originally Posted by Lookleft
According to the ISW they have estimated that Russia has used 70% of their cruise missile stocks.
That could be a conservative figure, the failure rates of their cruise missiles has been quite high and most of those failures would occur in areas that are not going. to be reported. If he had them, he would be using them, same as their PGM's. Mother Hubbards cupboard is bereft of cruise, PGM, Black Sea fleet ships. That increases the use of his shorter-range ballistic missiles. The MBT's blow up, the IFV, APC, and trucks are taken out by low-cost stand-off weapons, the drone-spotting is reducing the number of towed and SP tubes and MRLs, and the Russians seem to have a spate of OH&S issues with their wiring in the Rodina, not just their warships. Risk is, the Dear Leader is losing his marbles and is in a blue funk, and then the question is how many of his F-Troop team think that a nuclear war is a winnable proposition. I have made comment on manner to remove a member from the UNSC, so that the UN may act as a concerted body to get attention of the manglers of this show, as the risk of an irrational act by F-Troop is higher than any time in human history. Optimistic studies may suggest otherwise, but anything spreading beyond a tactical nuke gets quickly to a global catastrophe. UN action gets the attention of the subordinates, who then have to decide if their loyalty to a fruit loop is more important than saving the Rodina and their own hides.

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Old 29th Apr 2022, 05:45
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It's hard to gauge.
Cross correlate the Finnish Intelligence officer's observation about Russian bluff, bluster and threats being business as usual - with the observation by another Intel analyst that there's every sign that Putin "appears to want to live..." as in stay alive.
I share the concern about nuclear escalation - particularly WRT smaller warheads.
But if one puts oneself in Putin's shoes - their use could very quickly literally end in one being buried alive, or burned alive.
https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a
Does he really want that?
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 06:06
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Originally Posted by tartare
It's hard to gauge.
Cross correlate the Finnish Intelligence officer's observation about Russian bluff, bluster and threats being business as usual - with the observation by another Intel analyst that there's every sign that Putin "appears to want to live..." as in stay alive.
I share the concern about nuclear escalation - particularly WRT smaller warheads.
But if one puts oneself in Putin's shoes - their use could very quickly literally end in one being buried alive, or burned alive.
https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a
Does he really want that?
No idea what goes through the dudes head. Not sure anyone does. Anyone attacking with tanks in February in that part of the world has some issues. He attests to know Russian history, yet the environment has only been a major factor in two debacles previously, 1812 and 1941, and now, 2022. I still think getting the UN to do their job would allow those around fort fumble to take their dear leader away in a straight jacket so Russia can get back to the business of cleaning up his mess. "Clean up on aisle 13" like
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 06:31
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A bit of a divergence - but it does raise the issue of the future shape of the European defence market.

Who, for example, in Eastern Europe, would opt for the Franco-German FCAS over the F-35, NGAD or Tempest?

similarly Abrams vs Leopard etc.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/e...out-of-europe/

Ukraine weapon switcheroos are flushing Soviet arms out of Europe

…“When it comes to new equipment, the Eastern European partners will primarily turn to the United States,” said Matthias Wachter, chief defense analyst at the German industry association BDI. “Germany and France have unfortunately disqualified themselves in the eyes of many eastern Europeans by way of their reluctant stance on military support for Ukraine.”…
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 07:20
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Warning: Aviation content.

TASS has listed the aircrafts participating in the Victory day parade in Moscow.
The usual suspects are there, mostly everything is Soviet era except for the Su57. What is highlighted in the article is the patriotic act of MiG29's:
"For the first time, eight MiG-29SMT fighters will fly over Red Square in flight order in the form of the letter "Z" in support of Russian servicemen - participants in a special military operation in Ukraine," the Russian Defense Ministry said.

The Armata tank is supposed to present itself too. In 2015 it stalled and had to be towed away, although even that didn't seem to work out.

So, despite the rumours of Putin having the V-Day parade in Mariupol he lags the courage and sticks to the Red Square.

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/14512145
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 08:09
  #4869 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Warning: Aviation content.

TASS has listed the aircrafts participating in the Victory day parade in Moscow.
The usual suspects are there, mostly everything is Soviet era except for the Su57. What is highlighted in the article is the patriotic act of MiG29's:
"For the first time, eight MiG-29SMT fighters will fly over Red Square in flight order in the form of the letter "Z" in support of Russian servicemen - participants in a special military operation in Ukraine," the Russian Defense Ministry said.

The Armata tank is supposed to present itself too. In 2015 it stalled and had to be towed away, although even that didn't seem to work out.

So, despite the rumours of Putin having the V-Day parade in Mariupol he lags the courage and sticks to the Red Square.

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/14512145
Wanted to Rent: top floor property with great view of St Basil's, within 3,000m of the domes. Must have 5,6,7,8 windows facing out towards the domes. Prefer multiple occupancies. Short-term rent preferred, needed from 8 May to 10 May, for band of musicians who make some loud noises. Prefer to pay a damage bond by AMEX. Should have opening windows. please contact V. Putin +79110005555 Please leave message. Spasiba
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 08:11
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Interesting discussion on BBC Radio yesterday with an expert on Russian strategy. Asked about Putin threatening nukes he made the point that he has almost always included a reference into Russia's superiority in warheads in any speech on military affairs going back over 15 years - he reckoned that Putin just can't think of military without the N word coming out and secondly he HAS to mention it - other wise people might ask" what the hell did we spend all that money on".
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 08:44
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
i did not it said surface not land so I did wonder if it was on a ship mount.
A distinct shortage of ships in the UKR navy.
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 08:48
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Originally Posted by rattman
probably from their one owner predators that are coming.

But in reality apparently the UK has rapidly developed, prototyped and delplyed ground mounts for vehicles to be deployed with them
Perhaps the Taliban or similar organisation can send them some Hi-Lux?
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 09:30
  #4873 (permalink)  
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They’ve already been offering it on a BMP chassis, which would be useful for UKR. I suppose it depends how long it would take to modify a few…

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Old 29th Apr 2022, 10:07
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Will our Challenger II now head to Poland to fill the gap?

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Old 29th Apr 2022, 10:13
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Originally Posted by Lookleft
According to the ISW they have estimated that Russia has used 70% of their cruise missile stocks.
The daily numbers have definitely tailed off since the start of the conflict and the brief uptick following the sink..sorry, the self immolation of the Moskva.

Ukrainian air defences have reportedly been bagging a fair number of them, set to increase with all the odds and sods the west is providing.
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 10:13
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
Perhaps the Taliban or similar organisation can send them some Hi-Lux?


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Old 29th Apr 2022, 10:19
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
A distinct shortage of ships in the UKR navy.
It wouldn't be that much of a stretch to mount the launch canister on a small vessel e.g. a power boat (along with a big red button to fire it and a tinfoil covered tarp covered to protect the crew from the rocket efflux...).
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 10:22
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Stupidity comes to mind, they must have a finite supply of missiles to use, so as long as they are firing them into high rise buildings they are not diminishing the Countries military capability to defend themselves and fight back, the tragedy in it all is the innocents getting killed or maimed as Russia attempts to demoralise the Ukrainian people and break down their spirit and resolve.
But if Bucha is anything to go by Russia is simply making the Country stronger and filling them with so much hate and loathing through these actions that the Ukrainians will fight back to their last.

A classic repeat of the civilian bombing by both sides in the Second World War. Nobody seemed to notice the obvious flaw in the plan then and it seems they have learned nothing this time either
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 10:25
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Originally Posted by fdr
Wanted to Rent: top floor property with great view of St Basil's, within 3,000m of the domes. Must have 5,6,7,8 windows facing out towards the domes. Prefer multiple occupancies. Short-term rent preferred, needed from 8 May to 10 May, for band of musicians who make some loud noises. Prefer to pay a damage bond by AMEX. Should have opening windows. please contact V. Putin +79110005555 Please leave message. Spasiba
Lots of rumours circulating that 'something' may happen on the day, if only to spoil the sense of occasion... Even a bomb some distance away from Red Square will cause panic amongst the ranks.

My money is on a much scaled down event taking place, the live feed being intercut with archive footage (e.g. of Vladolph taking the salute etc).

Either way its going to be a security headache for sure, way more so than it usually is.
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Old 29th Apr 2022, 12:09
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Staggered, it probably won’t be ‘live’ exactly.
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