Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Michael Kofman, the director of Russia Studies at the Center for Naval Analyses, said the Russia Duma was due to consider recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics on Monday.
“14 February looks like it may offer a basis for Russia to extend security guarantees, and militarily protect those considered to be Russian citizens living in the separatist regions,” Kofman said on Twitter. “This may be interpreted as a clause which formally authorises the Russian state to use force in Ukraine.”
“14 February looks like it may offer a basis for Russia to extend security guarantees, and militarily protect those considered to be Russian citizens living in the separatist regions,” Kofman said on Twitter. “This may be interpreted as a clause which formally authorises the Russian state to use force in Ukraine.”
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Tensions have steadily increased as Russia has continued to deploy troops along Ukraine's eastern border. Russian troops are also staging military exercises in Belarus to the north, while naval exercises in the Sea of Azov in the south-east have led to accusations that Russia is blocking Ukraine's access to the sea.
Meanwhile, some 7,500km (4,660 miles) away on Russia's eastern side, the Russian defence ministry says it spotted a US Navy submarine inside its territorial waters. Officials say the US submarine was near the Kuril Islands and failed to surface when instructed.
The Marshal Shaposhnikov destroyer took unspecified "appropriate" actions and the US submarine left the area, the ministry said. A US defence official has been summoned by Moscow over the incident. The Pentagon has not commented on the Russian report of the incident.
Meanwhile, some 7,500km (4,660 miles) away on Russia's eastern side, the Russian defence ministry says it spotted a US Navy submarine inside its territorial waters. Officials say the US submarine was near the Kuril Islands and failed to surface when instructed.
The Marshal Shaposhnikov destroyer took unspecified "appropriate" actions and the US submarine left the area, the ministry said. A US defence official has been summoned by Moscow over the incident. The Pentagon has not commented on the Russian report of the incident.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60361983
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I have to admit I have not read all the previous contributions but looking at today's news I have to ask what the hell are the West doing out there? The President of Ukraine does not seem to be too bothered about the situation and is blaming the West for stirring things up and is sure to blame any of his populations deaths on the West if things kick off.
After listening to his views my own feelings are for us to withdraw and strengthen those former Soviet Satellite Countries who are looking for increased aid from the West in protecting their Borders with Russia and let Ukraine sort it out themselves.
After listening to his views my own feelings are for us to withdraw and strengthen those former Soviet Satellite Countries who are looking for increased aid from the West in protecting their Borders with Russia and let Ukraine sort it out themselves.
I think that Zelensky is trying to keep things calm and keep a lid on the public panicking at what they're hearing, right up until the point he can't do that any more, or Russian forces are withdrawn (given that backing down and maintaining that it was all an exercise is still an option). He needs to be seen to be reassuring and in control by the public, so some playing down of the situation whilst he can is what he's got. It seems to me that being any more belligerent is not likely to be all that helpful to him. He's got an overwhelming force on his border, they may or may not cross it, refraining from saying 'come and have a go if you think you're hard enough' in public can't hurt.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Maslovka is on the Ukrainian border and 85 mikes from Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine.
Last edited by ORAC; 13th Feb 2022 at 06:58. Reason: Sp
Orac,
At this stage in the proceedings, it is very unlikely that you will be seeing any military assets employed over Ukraine. As I'm sure you know, that does not mean they are not there.
No displays of intentions are necessary anymore.
IG
At this stage in the proceedings, it is very unlikely that you will be seeing any military assets employed over Ukraine. As I'm sure you know, that does not mean they are not there.
No displays of intentions are necessary anymore.
IG
The attack on US utilities, in itself, could be considered an act of war.
https://twitter.com/warmatters/statu...206051843?s=21
https://www.itworldcanada.com/articl...-expert/473065
https://twitter.com/warmatters/statu...206051843?s=21
https://www.itworldcanada.com/articl...-expert/473065
Nuke them?
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You have it Nut Loose, that what you suggest in regards to Russia blocking sea trade routes by carrying out manoeuvres was always the basis of any exercises I was involved in, when it comes to Submarines neither the RN or the U.S Navy will disclose where their Submarines are operating , the Russians know that so I take the Russian disclosure about shooing the American Sub off with a "pinch of Salt" at the moment that is until somebody in 20years time writes a book to confirm it really happened and of course if we are all still here! Putin is a Criminal both he and his Cabal are ripping the Russian people off his grab on power and his political moves to make sure he keeps it is very much like Hitler and my worry is that he will use a similar excuse as Hitler did to invade Poland with Putin telling the World that the Russians have invaded Ukraine because the Russian population who still live there are being harassed.
Hopefully Putin will withdraw his Troops from their Exercise and we can all heave a sigh of relief, that is until the next time of course!
Russia and China are in cahoots and I still don't believe that Covid was caused by some Chinese eating Batman.
t
Hopefully Putin will withdraw his Troops from their Exercise and we can all heave a sigh of relief, that is until the next time of course!
Russia and China are in cahoots and I still don't believe that Covid was caused by some Chinese eating Batman.
t
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They are talking if the invasion takes place, hence all the Russian anti air assets would be active. Ideally I would have thought would be to stick them on the flights removing those in there training their military if there was room.
And as no invasion time has been set you could be caught on the ground loading Civis into your C-17 if it cracked off, I would imagine Russia would be keen to deny any air bridge in or out. Though that might bring in NATO if a NATO members Aircraft is hit.
My worry would be fighting around Chernobyl etc, that could be disastrous to the whole of Europe.
And as no invasion time has been set you could be caught on the ground loading Civis into your C-17 if it cracked off, I would imagine Russia would be keen to deny any air bridge in or out. Though that might bring in NATO if a NATO members Aircraft is hit.
My worry would be fighting around Chernobyl etc, that could be disastrous to the whole of Europe.
I would hope that the power plant at Chernobyl is not included in any Bombing/ Bombardment Plan by either side.
The Russians do indeed have no time for "Air Bridges" which goes back to the Berlin Airlift when MIG's shot down an unarmed Lincoln aircraft and then shot and killed the Aircrew that managed to bail out whilst they were still in their Parachutes.
I would hope that the power plant at Chernobyl is not included in any Bombing/ Bombardment Plan by either side.
I would hope that the power plant at Chernobyl is not included in any Bombing/ Bombardment Plan by either side.
Also that it was on a training mission and entered Soviet controlled airspace - nothing to do with any "Air Bridge".
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Sorry viewers I stand corrected, scrub my last a mix up on my part as there has been numerous incidents where the Russians do not let any sort of principles stand in their way when it comes to shooting down aircraft either Military or Civilian which has been proved in the past on many occasions.
If I was in Ukraine I would take the Bus out rather than fly.
If I was in Ukraine I would take the Bus out rather than fly.
Just so long as no one steps off an airplane waving a piece of paper that “Guarantees Peace in Our Time!”
Last edited by albatross; 13th Feb 2022 at 15:17. Reason: punctuation
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Those that haven’t left the country have moved to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv - which would seem an indication it might be attacked.
If it is, and falls, the Lviv could become the de facto capital, in the manner of Bonn, in a divided nation….
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...mats-flee-kyiv
‘It is past time to leave Ukraine’: western diplomats flee Kyiv
….The US and Canadian embassies have sent non-essential staff and family members home and are evacuating others to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. American, Canadian and British military trainers in the country have also been withdrawn.
Office space and hotel rooms in Lviv are at a premium as diplomats and businesses temporarily relocate there. Britain’s ambassador, Melinda Simmons, will stay in Kyiv and work with a core team, while other British diplomats have been sent home.….
If it is, and falls, the Lviv could become the de facto capital, in the manner of Bonn, in a divided nation….
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...mats-flee-kyiv
‘It is past time to leave Ukraine’: western diplomats flee Kyiv
….The US and Canadian embassies have sent non-essential staff and family members home and are evacuating others to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. American, Canadian and British military trainers in the country have also been withdrawn.
Office space and hotel rooms in Lviv are at a premium as diplomats and businesses temporarily relocate there. Britain’s ambassador, Melinda Simmons, will stay in Kyiv and work with a core team, while other British diplomats have been sent home.….
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ion-fears-grow
Ukraine allocates $592m to maintain flights amid fears of invasion
Ukraine has allocated $592m (£437m) to guarantee the continuation of flights to and from the country, as fears of flying over its airspace led some airlines to scrap or divert flights as tensions between the west and the Kremlin mount over a possible Russian invasion.
The prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, said the funds “were allocated to ensure flight safety in Ukraine for insurance and leasing companies” and would “stabilise the situation on the market of passenger air transportation and will guarantee the return to Ukraine of our citizens who are currently abroad”.
The Dutch carrier KLM had earlier cancelled flights to Ukraine after the Netherlands government issued a travel warning over the risks of flying in the region, while Germany’s Lufthansa said it was considering suspending air traffic.
A passenger plane operated by the Ukrainian charter airline SkyUp, which was on its way to Kyiv from Madeira in Portugal, was meanwhile diverted on Saturday to the Moldovan capital, Chișinău, after the plane’s Irish owner said it was banning flights in Ukrainian airspace.…..
Mustafa Nayyem, Ukraine’s deputy infrastructure minister, said on Sunday the government had not closed the country’s airspace. “Closing the airspace is a sovereign right of Ukraine and the government has not taken this decision,” Nayyem wrote on Facebook.
Nayyem said the majority of airlines continued to operate but some were facing difficulties with insurers, given fears of a Russian attack.
“We expect that in the nearest time the situation will stabilise, but nevertheless the state is ready to support airlines and plans to offer additional financial guarantees to support the air travel market,” wrote Nayyem……
Ukraine allocates $592m to maintain flights amid fears of invasion
Ukraine has allocated $592m (£437m) to guarantee the continuation of flights to and from the country, as fears of flying over its airspace led some airlines to scrap or divert flights as tensions between the west and the Kremlin mount over a possible Russian invasion.
The prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, said the funds “were allocated to ensure flight safety in Ukraine for insurance and leasing companies” and would “stabilise the situation on the market of passenger air transportation and will guarantee the return to Ukraine of our citizens who are currently abroad”.
The Dutch carrier KLM had earlier cancelled flights to Ukraine after the Netherlands government issued a travel warning over the risks of flying in the region, while Germany’s Lufthansa said it was considering suspending air traffic.
A passenger plane operated by the Ukrainian charter airline SkyUp, which was on its way to Kyiv from Madeira in Portugal, was meanwhile diverted on Saturday to the Moldovan capital, Chișinău, after the plane’s Irish owner said it was banning flights in Ukrainian airspace.…..
Mustafa Nayyem, Ukraine’s deputy infrastructure minister, said on Sunday the government had not closed the country’s airspace. “Closing the airspace is a sovereign right of Ukraine and the government has not taken this decision,” Nayyem wrote on Facebook.
Nayyem said the majority of airlines continued to operate but some were facing difficulties with insurers, given fears of a Russian attack.
“We expect that in the nearest time the situation will stabilise, but nevertheless the state is ready to support airlines and plans to offer additional financial guarantees to support the air travel market,” wrote Nayyem……
There was an intriguing take on the crisis by a guest on Al Jazeera yesterday morning who suggested Ukraine was far too big for Russia to occupy, and that Putin would most likely try to spin the current 'pre-frozen' crisis out for months in the hope of wearing them and the West down and securing further concessions.
There was an intriguing take on the crisis by a guest on Al Jazeera yesterday morning who suggested Ukraine was far too big for Russia to occupy, and that Putin would most likely try to spin the current 'pre-frozen' crisis out for months in the hope of wearing them and the West down and securing further concessions.
Russia may well run through Ukraine with sheer mass, but holding the ground is entirely different topic. It would be painstaking for the Russians to try and occupy such a big country with 44 million people out of which millions are willing to fight the oppressor and many have military training. And now they have weapons to defend themselves, too. And it would eventually escalate to Russia as well, imagine what the IRA did in the 70's and multiply it by X.
I'll give you that. Nevertheless, there weren't millions of them and they weren't equipped with state of the art weaponry. Also the distance between Ukraine and Moscow is less than 300 miles, less than NI to London and no seas in between.