Originally Posted by
Tartiflette Fan
Perhaps you need reminding that Zelensky signed the renegotiated Steinmeier Formula in 2019 agreeing to recognise the independent status of Donbas which he has reneged on because he subsequently discovered he didn't have the support of his people. ( see link )
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-in...utonomy-donbas
TF. Interesting link; and although I agree with a lot of what you have been saying, I want to challenge 'independent status' and 'reneged'.
The formula would have lead to autononomy within Ukraine and Ukrainian national control of the whole border. Unlike the UK where parliament only has the right to delay ratification of treaties, the Ukrainian parliament has the sole right to ratify. Give Ukrainian legal opinion appears to consider the Budapest Memorandum satisfies all the criteria under international law to be a treaty, I am sure the view of the formula would be the same. Even if it didn't amount to a treaty it included terms which would require changes to the Ukrainian Constitution - which can only occur if parliament passes a law for a referendum and the referendum vote agrees. Zelenskyy knew from the reaction he would lose, a bitter pill for a man whose election platform was ending the civil war. Funny thing democracy, those governing require the consent of the people. Not an idea Putin V V is happy with. It also has implications for any demands Zelenskyy's government is forced to accept.
I found the embeded link to a story on the reaction informative
https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-agrees-to-steinmeier-formula-green-lights-elections-in-occupied-donbas.html
It reminds me of the USA's treaties with the people whose lands it was stealing in the 19th Century, the US government used alleged breaches as a justification for attacking Native Americans, the US Senate had refused to ratify these treaties and so they weren't binding and the US happily ignored the terms.
Originally Posted by
Tartiflette Fan
I'm surprised they see an NFZ as the most militarily effective, would it be inforceable from within Ukraine and NATO airspace without interdicting AAM systems on Russian and Belarussian territory?
In spite of SV's insinuation, I have been reading the thread, however contrary to my wish that Ukraine can resist, I don't believe the undoubted successes the Ukrainians have been having in slowing the Russian advances are sustainable. I don't think Zelenskyy does either and that is why he is desparate to get NATO (or indeed Putin) to cross the line in the sand.
Yesterday the US media was quoting as 'senior defense official' as saying:
- 'Nearly 100% of Russian forces assembled for the invasion have been sent into Ukraine, and about 95% of the combat power assembled is still “intact'.
- Russian troops are advancing on Kyiv from three sides, with a new force from the east about 37 miles outside of Kyiv.
- One contingent of Russian forces headed for Kyiv from the north is “stuck” in Chernihiv and “can’t get past it,” according to the official.
- Most of Ukraine is under threat from Russian surface to air missiles, but Russia has not achieved air superiority, and Ukraine can still fly aircraft and conduct viable and effective missile defense.
For example (1.35pm EST March 8)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbess...kraine-russia/
Given its aircraft and air defence systems are of Soviet/Russian origin and many of the Ukrainian defence factories are in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Kyiv Oblasts the ability to rearm and repair them must be impaired to say the least.