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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 1st Mar 2022, 12:58
  #2081 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Buster Hyman
On a side note, I wonder how the A-10 Pilots feel about the images of that convoy on the News.
Probably ruing the fact the Hog can't carry even more ordnance...
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 13:09
  #2082 (permalink)  
 
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Probably slightly worried about the surface to air threat given there are still Ukrainian jets getting knocked out the sky. It's not quite the Helmand HIDACZ free for all they were used to.
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 13:10
  #2083 (permalink)  
 
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The problem with the convoy being a juicy target is it is an escalation zone for Putin.
He knows the media will be wetting its pants over the excitement - the population will be terrified - the planners will then have to find options to stop it - NATO aircraft are thrown in - after taking out the ZSU-234s and Grails it becomes a turkey shoot.
He has his reason to justify the fight to his people and even start throwing big bombs.

Or we let it pass.

While TB2s can create some carnage, there is every chance that they will be lost and the progress will continue.
It might be better to let them get to their FUPs when they will be by necessity within the range of Ukrainian artillery. You can't have an FUP if you are continually being shelled and the mud in the area will create large obstacles.
The confusion will allow the TB2s to deliver their ordnance against the air defences, leaving space for the new Migs to wreak havoc.

Unless you have a mobile force of your own to attack the flank, there is little that can be done at this moment without the risk of escalation.
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 13:32
  #2084 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
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The confusion will allow the TB2s to deliver their ordnance against the air defences, leaving space for the new Migs to wreak havoc.
.
To be honest the world is a strange place. A short while ago I wouldn't have thought to see that phrase over here in a hopeful connection. We are actually wishing godspeed for the Migs. Extraordinary.

And I did not imagine writing the following: the Migs should take advantage of their strengths somewhere else and leave the convoy to the newly acquired SU-25's which are the tool for the purpose. The eastern equivalent of the A10.
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 13:44
  #2085 (permalink)  
 
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Reports that the Mooted MIGs and SU25's from Poland and Slovakia are not going to be delivered



Edie:


Last edited by Tyres O'Flaherty; 1st Mar 2022 at 13:47. Reason: Twitter link
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 14:01
  #2086 (permalink)  
 
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No fighter plane transfers to Ukraine through allied airspace
BY JOHN VANDIVER
• STARS AND STRIPES • MARCH 1, 2022

RZESZOW, Poland — NATO airspace will not be used to transfer fighter planes to the Ukrainian military, alliance leaders said Tuesday after a meeting in Poland, where top U.S. commanders were on hand for high-level security talks.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/eur...e-5185737.html
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 14:07
  #2087 (permalink)  
 
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“We are not going to send any jets into Ukrainian airspace,”
Fly them into the Belarus airspace, take a whack at the convoy as they then enter Ukrainian airspace before landing and rearming
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 14:12
  #2088 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
The problem with the convoy being a juicy target is it is an escalation zone for Putin.
He knows the media will be wetting its pants over the excitement - the population will be terrified - the planners will then have to find options to stop it - NATO aircraft are thrown in - after taking out the ZSU-234s and Grails it becomes a turkey shoot.
I don't know where the idea comes from that NATO Forces would directly attack Russian convois?! They won't! End of. In all the Proxy wars since WWII both Russia and the US/NATO made sure to avoid direct casualties of the other side. And Boy have they indirectly supported the opposing force in those Proxy wars. But they were always careful not to directly kill Military personnel of 'the other side'
Like generally in the last 60 Years both sides are also this time looking to be more or less carefully ensuring not to cross any red lines. I have the impression that despite some strange musings of 'Mad Vlad' both sides are well aware what's at stake.

Last edited by henra; 1st Mar 2022 at 14:24.
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 15:15
  #2089 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by henra
I don't know where the idea comes from that NATO Forces would directly attack Russian convois?! They won't! End of. In all the Proxy wars since WWII both Russia and the US/NATO made sure to avoid direct casualties of the other side. And Boy have they indirectly supported the opposing force in those Proxy wars. But they were always careful not to directly kill Military personnel of 'the other side'
Like generally in the last 60 Years both sides are also this time looking to be more or less carefully ensuring not to cross any red lines. I have the impression that despite some strange musings of 'Mad Vlad' both sides are well aware what's at stake.
There seems to be an awful lot of people saying we should whack the convey and put in a no fly zone.
I was trying to point out the lunacy of the idea.
As tempting a target as it is.
Regarding the Polish jets - make some decoys sitting outside of the hanger and the real aircraft somehow go missing - problem solved.
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 15:20
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China wants to get involved

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...d=winp1taskbar

China signalled it was ready to play a role in finding a ceasefire in Ukraine as it “deplored” the outbreak of conflict in its strongest comments yet on the war.Beijing said it was “extremely concerned about the harm to civilians” in comments that came after a phone call between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

“Ukraine is willing to strengthen communications with China and looks forward to China playing a role in realising a ceasefire,” the Chinese statement said on Tuesday.

It added that it respected “the territorial integrity of all countries”, without indicating whether Beijing accepted Russia’s claim to the Crimean peninsula or shared its recognition of separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

The statement marked a change in tone from Beijing. Asked on February 24 if the invasion represented a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty, a spokesperson for Beijing’s foreign ministry characterised the situation as due to “a combination of factors” but did not describe it as a violation.
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 15:30
  #2091 (permalink)  
 
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Sounds like someone made a quick phone call to the Poles…
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 15:34
  #2092 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
The problem with the convoy being a juicy target is it is an escalation zone for Putin.
He knows the media will be wetting its pants over the excitement - the population will be terrified - the planners will then have to find options to stop it - NATO aircraft are thrown in - after taking out the ZSU-234s and Grails it becomes a turkey shoot.
He has his reason to justify the fight to his people and even start throwing big bombs.

Or we let it pass.

While TB2s can create some carnage, there is every chance that they will be lost and the progress will continue.
It might be better to let them get to their FUPs when they will be by necessity within the range of Ukrainian artillery. You can't have an FUP if you are continually being shelled and the mud in the area will create large obstacles.
The confusion will allow the TB2s to deliver their ordnance against the air defences, leaving space for the new Migs to wreak havoc.

Unless you have a mobile force of your own to attack the flank, there is little that can be done at this moment without the risk of escalation.
Time for a Toyota War. Large numbers of pick up trucks, armed with a heavy MG, a few ATGMs and a Stinger or two. Mobile phones and Starlink for command and control.
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 15:35
  #2093 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Off Facebook.
Col. Oksanchenko won the Best Solo Jet Display Trophy at RIAT in 2017.

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Old 1st Mar 2022, 15:41
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Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
There seems to be an awful lot of people saying we should whack the convey and put in a no fly zone.
I was trying to point out the lunacy of the idea.
As tempting a target as it is.
OK thanks! Then I misinterpeted your post and do fully agree.
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 15:43
  #2095 (permalink)  
 
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Ukrainians claim they got one of those:

https://linksharing.samsungcloud.com/7FlBDuvGFioT

They, too, want to play with the best toys.
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 15:48
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I suspect Vlad may have briefed Xi on his evil plan during his visit to the Olympics, but now its gone to sh*t and it looks like there could be large-scale civilian casualties, they're beginning to get a bit uncomfortable and that they too could face the opprobrium of the west if they continue to stand with Russia.
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 16:00
  #2097 (permalink)  
 
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Worth a read (Eliot Cohen is worth following if you're on Twitter - he has produce some excellent analysis of late):

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Old 1st Mar 2022, 16:08
  #2098 (permalink)  
 
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DOH!

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Old 1st Mar 2022, 16:11
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Originally Posted by NAROBS
The modern version of Col. Stirling/LRDG.
Last done in the same neck of the woods

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_War
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Old 1st Mar 2022, 16:14
  #2100 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by transport jock
The lack of a large letter on the sides suggests that the SA-8s are Ukrainian.
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