Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[Video Mixdown]

Originally Posted by WB627

The State Department briefing "their concern as to his mental health". A diplomatic way of saying he is a nutter and has lost it.

I wonder if he's reached the stage of issuing orders for units that are already wreckage to advance?

[charliegolf]

Originally Posted by [email protected]

Has anyone done an analysis of Putin's appearance and his health - we know he is vain and probably a Botox user but he looks puffy and unwell - the sort of result you see in cancer patients on steroids.

Is it possible this outrageous invasion has been prompted by his failing health and a desire to make his mark before he goes?

From the Telegraph, via Yahoo...

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/five-reaso...044032496.html

CG

[Fonsini]

Is there an official explanation as to why Poland went from “free MiG 29s, missiles, and bases to operate them from” to “nothing” in the space of 24 hours?

Are ANY free jets still on offer?

[Flyhighfirst]

Originally Posted by tdracer

Yea, I've been thinking that IFF has to be a bitch when both sides are using much the same equipment.

Just thinking out loud here, but fo get Warthogs - imagine what a few properly armed BUFFs could do to that 40 mile long convoy...

A few “Buffs” would just be smoking craters in some farmers field. Unless used in a standoff attack with cruise missiles out of range of anti air.

[unmanned_droid]

re. non-delivery of fighters to Ukraine, I had read that there might have been some misunderstanding there. The way I comprehended the words had more to do with NATO forces flying NATO aircraft over Ukraine. Nothing about non-NATO forces flying the aircraft over Ukraine. I think if they had really gone back on it, there would be a media sh** storm going on, led by Ukraine.

[MAINJAFAD]

Originally Posted by Cat Techie

You know your stuff MJ.

You could also throw some of these in for Recce and nuisance attack (Drop on GPS if command link is jammed).

https://www.airbornedrones.co/delivery-and-transport/

A butt load of NVG needed as well.

[peter we]

Ukraine conflict: Russia introduces Su-34 into fray

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/d...u-34-into-fray

[[email protected]]

From the Telegraph, via Yahoo...

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/five-reaso...044032496.html

CG

Thanks CG

[Cat Techie]

Originally Posted by Fonsini

Is there an official explanation as to why Poland went from “free MiG 29s, missiles, and bases to operate them from” to “nothing” in the space of 24 hours?

Are ANY free jets still on offer?

Common sense that maybe not the wisest think to do? Attack from NATO land is not a wise thing to do.

[SATCOS WHIPPING BOY]

Originally Posted by Cat Techie

Common sense that maybe not the wisest think to do? Attack from NATO land is not a wise thing to do.

Meanwhile, in a spray-bay not far across the border, Ukraine "reserve aircraft" are drying off. Just needed a bit of a touch up before being put to good use.

saw an interesting aside on social media.
For those concerned that the general Russian population are not seeing what is going on, it has been suggested to go on TripAdvisor, find a Russian Hotel or Restaurant, and leave a "feedback" detailing what is actually going on at the front.
The business owner gets to see the review.

[unmanned_droid]

Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY

Meanwhile, in a spray-bay not far across the border, Ukraine "reserve aircraft" are drying off. Just needed a bit of a touch up before being put to good use.

saw an interesting aside on social media.
For those concerned that the general Russian population are not seeing what is going on, it has been suggested to go on TripAdvisor, find a Russian Hotel or Restaurant, and leave a "feedback" detailing what is actually going on at the front.
The business owner gets to see the review.

Don't look at the pictures people uploaded to red square, if google have left them there.

There will be no combat missions launched from NATO soil by Ukr. operated aircraft. Pretty obvious that there will be a way of working this properly. Confusion here seems to be from translation/comprehension. They'll have to land in Ukraine, re-arm and refuel. Launching from Poland fully armed would be taken advantage of by the Russians if seen. Regardless of actual intentions.

[Darren_P]

Originally Posted by peter we

Ukraine conflict: Russia introduces Su-34 into fray

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/d...u-34-into-fray

It looks like it got a warm welcome;

Twitter

[Imagegear]

Interesting

Twitter

[HOVIS]

Plenty of Turkish Airlines airplanes passing through EU airspace to Russia. 😒

[sir]

Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst

A few “Buffs” would just be smoking craters in some farmers field. Unless used in a standoff attack with cruise missiles out of range of anti air.

B2 at night instead, standoff ALCMs from a plausibly Ukranian firing point, perhaps with Ukranian aircraft in the vicinity of launch I dunno just wanna whack Vlad !

[Easy Street]

Originally Posted by ORAC

RUSI: The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...sian-air-force

I'm late reading this, but came here to agree with the comment earlier from deadpan about it seeming to be an incomplete analysis. It isn't just the possible effect of MANPADS which Bronk omits: it's GBAD, full stop. In an earlier article (here) he sets out Ukrainian ORBAT and some of the constraints upon it, but perhaps it has been more potent (or more of a deterrent) than expected? You'd have thought the latest article would at least have addressed the possibility. Another might be simply that the RFAF wants to minimise exposure to NATO of any countermeasures or tactics against SAMs it knows well, although I guess they would care less about that as time goes by if progress remains faltering.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by unmanned_droid

re. non-delivery of fighters to Ukraine, I had read that there might have been some misunderstanding there. The way I comprehended the words had more to do with NATO forces flying NATO aircraft over Ukraine. Nothing about non-NATO forces flying the aircraft over Ukraine. I think if they had really gone back on it, there would be a media sh** storm going on, led by Ukraine.

i should imagine a lot of the Countries involved would have wanted it done quietly rather than bleated out to the worlds press, hence a lot of Countries deny they were supplying aircraft. I should imagine the initial reports that they would have launched armed from Poland may have been correct, but now it’s out there they have had to downplay it and deny it from happening.

[tartare]

I'm trying to work out how the Ukrainians get their `new' MiGs over the border from Poland without being shot down.
I assume they'll have to move quick smart.
EDIT: Ignore that - I see the plan to supply old MiGs from Poland and Slovakia is now a nonstarter.

Presumably defending the west of the Ukraine becomes an absolute imperative if you're going to continue to ensure the continued NATO supply of NLAWS and other weapons and materiel flowing into the country?
As Russia moves west - if they push right to Lviv the situation on the border must be likely to get very fluid - high risk of a Poland/Hungary/Romania v Russia incident or shootdown.
Could happen as much by mistake as anything.

[NutLoose]

Who needs enemies when you have friends working against you Like this..

H I Sutton

@CovertShores
·
47m
**UPDATE** -> http://hisutton.com/Russias-Planned-Amphibious-Landings-in-Ukraine.html… Evidence Of #Russia's Planned Amphibious Landings in #Ukraine. Apparent INTELLIGENCE BLUNDER by Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, on an international scale!

[havoc]

Ukraine foils assassination attempt

Ukraine foils assassination attempt on Zelensky by Chechen special unit

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF - 34m ago
Ukraine foils assassination attempt on Zelensky by Chechen special unit (msn.com)Aunit of Chechen special forces sent on a mission to assassinate Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky was "eliminated," head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov announced on Ukrainian parliament's official television station Rada TV on Tuesday.

According to Danilov, Ukraine received intelligence on the assassination attempt from Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB) agents.

"And I can say that we received information from representatives of the FSB, who today have no desire to take part in this bloody war," he claimed.

The special unit belonged to the Kadyrovites, a Chechen paramilitary organization aiding Russian forces in their invasion of Ukraine.

"The special operation that was to be carried out directly by the Kadyrovites to eliminate our president is fully known to us today," Danilov stated.

Danilov went on, adding that the unit split into two, with one half seeking cover in the town of Gostomel, near capital Kyiv, where the world's largest airplane, the Antonov-225 Mriya, was destroyed by Russian strikes targeting the Gostomel airport.

"One group was covered in Gostomel, another group is now, let's say, under the gun," Danilov said.

Danilov finished by stating that "the Kadyrovites' elite group, which came here specifically to eliminate our president, was directly destroyed."