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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 2nd Mar 2022, 07:42
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One thing that strikes me is how the Russian invasion force seems to only use half the road - there was a picture in the Times of The Convoy all going round a big roundabout and staying on the correct side of the road with the other side empty.

I know leaving one side open is good for the top brass, motor cycles and any breakdowns but it does look rather odd - you'd think they'd maximise the amount of road they use.......................
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 07:46
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
One thing that strikes me is how the Russian invasion force seems to only use half the road - there was a picture in the Times of The Convoy all going round a big roundabout and staying on the correct side of the road with the other side empty.

I know leaving one side open is good for the top brass, motor cycles and any breakdowns but it does look rather odd - you'd think they'd maximise the amount of road they use.......................
Rulez iz rulez. You wouldn't want to get in trouble with the Ukrainian traffic police.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 07:52
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Originally Posted by SLXOwft
Unlike the UN authorized intervention in admikar's declared country of residence, Operation Allied Force/Nobel Anvil was a 'Humanitarian Intervention' by NATO alone as it was clear Russia and probably China would veto any resolution for action against Milosevic for refusing to sign the Rambouillet accords. Although they appear to some to have been drafted with the intention of making them unsignable they were very mild compared with Putin's demands on Ukraine. One assumes that NATO did so in the firm belief Russian support for Milosevic would be only words not active force.

I'll switch to passive mode for the time being in expectation of ARMs.
While you are correct on what you wrote, I was talking about world claiming how Russians violated international laws by acknowledging separatist republics, while they were quite eager to accept Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia. Slightly more than 50% of UN members accepted that, including USA, Australia and most of western Europe democracies.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 07:55
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
One thing that strikes me is how the Russian invasion force seems to only use half the road - there was a picture in the Times of The Convoy all going round a big roundabout and staying on the correct side of the road with the other side empty.

I know leaving one side open is good for the top brass, motor cycles and any breakdowns but it does look rather odd - you'd think they'd maximise the amount of road they use.......................
If you've committed to only using half the road, for the reasons you have described, then going round both sides of the roundabout isn't going to gain you anything. In fact it will probably cause chaos once you leave the roundabout and have to squeeze back into half the width.

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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 07:56
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Originally Posted by admikar
While you are correct on what you wrote, I was talking about world claiming how Russians violated international laws by acknowledging separatist republics, while they were quite eager to accept Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia. Slightly more than 50% of UN members accepted that, including USA, Australia and most of western Europe democracies.
We are way past this debate, now that the Russian army is indiscriminately bombing cities. It looks, by the way, that it is the only thing this army has ever been able to do correctly.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 08:02
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A few thoughts:

- an analyst noted that the areas of red showing the extent of Russian advances we are seeing on various news media is misleading. The Russians are apparently restricted to advances along major highways, and haven't been venturing onto minor side roads on into the countryside, which leads me to:

- regarding 'that' convoy, I reckon the Ukrainian military would be well served by launching small unit shoot 'n scoot strikes along its length under the cover of darkness (not sure about the level of access to NVGs in the Russian mil- I suspect it'll be reserved for use by their elite units, not rear echelon truckies). As others have stated, the focus should be on fuel bowsers, anything carrying ammo or food, so no need to use the advanced weaponry we've supplied. This would necessitate the Russians having to put in place considerable force protection resources along its length, and would also deny these troops sleep. Same goes for other lines of advance.

- the longer Russia take to get their forces in place, the more of the kit we've promised will be available to the Ukrainians. I'm hoping they're building reserves of food, medical supplies etc in the cities too.

- final thought: how many troops would you realistically need to lay siege to a city the size of Kiev and keep them adequately supplied and keep those supply lines open? Then multiply that across all of the cities across Ukraine. To me, 180000 sounds nowhere near enough.

- final final thought. I reckon both sides are probably going to have to continue without any significant use of air power or helicopters, given the numbers of air defence systems present in the country on both sides. This is going to be a primarily a ground war. In this respect, the fact those EU countries decided not to supply those aircraft is probably now moot.

Last edited by dead_pan; 2nd Mar 2022 at 08:57.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 08:15
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Originally Posted by typerated
Does anyone remember when there was thinking that the Warsaw Pact might reach the English Channel in a week or two? 48 Hours even!
It was hard to believe even then – If the T-72 was as unreliable as Chieftain they would not have got any to Gutersloh !
I think thats what the public were led to believe and it helped support budget uplifts for defence. The powers that be knew via BRIXMIS that the Warsaw Pact weakness was logistics.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 08:51
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if Sun TZU's tenet is to be borne out, the only way it can happen is if the rest of the Russian hierarchy are persuaded that Putin should suddenly be diagnosed with a serious illness that has affected his judgement and decision making - that would allow him to be removed from public life while he 'recuperates', allow the 'honourable' withdrawal from Ukraine and possibly allow Russia's economy to avoid the worst of the sanctions.

All woes can then be blamed on an ailing President, allowing what remains of the Govt to keep the faith of the Russian people.

Or, someone from the FSB could just shoot him.............
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 09:15
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
One thing that strikes me is how the Russian invasion force seems to only use half the road - there was a picture in the Times of The Convoy all going round a big roundabout and staying on the correct side of the road with the other side empty.

I know leaving one side open is good for the top brass, motor cycles and any breakdowns but it does look rather odd - you'd think they'd maximise the amount of road they use.......................
Trouble with using both sides is when you come up against oncoming traffic. There is a fast motion film of a long convoy at a crossing stopping to let civilian traffic crossing at intervals.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 09:20
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As for the main convoy, when passing through wooded areas etc i'm surprised they are not dropping trees across the road, interlacing them means that the tree nearest then has another on top and one on top of that etc making them difficult to move, then booby trap those and pump oil onto the road surface near and under them so anything trying to move the trees would have problems with traction.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 09:31
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
As for the main convoy, when passing through wooded areas etc i'm surprised they are not dropping trees across the road, interlacing them means that the tree nearest then has another on top and one on top of that etc making them difficult to move, then booby trap those and pump oil onto the road surface near and under them so anything trying to move the trees would have problems with traction.
You can be sure the Ukrainian Forces are aware of that convoy and have evaluated their options. And you can be sure they have a much clearer picture of what's doable/worth the risk and what's not than we do have on our safe armchair and keyboard.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 09:31
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
if Sun TZU's tenet is to be borne out, the only way it can happen is if the rest of the Russian hierarchy are persuaded that Putin should suddenly be diagnosed with a serious illness that has affected his judgement and decision making - that would allow him to be removed from public life while he 'recuperates', allow the 'honourable' withdrawal from Ukraine and possibly allow Russia's economy to avoid the worst of the sanctions.

All woes can then be blamed on an ailing President, allowing what remains of the Govt to keep the faith of the Russian people.
I would have agreed but I think the longer this goes on the less likely the ascension of anyone associated with Putin will be an acceptable option as they will have become too complicit. If too much time passes they might also see themselves as being trapped. "I am in blood Stepped in so far that, should I wade no more, Returning were as tedious as go o’er." and all that.

Lavrov being one of those already too toxic.


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that if a third World War were to take place, it would involve nuclear weapons and be destructive, the RIA news agency reported.
Telegraph at 10:06am

I think this is the only way now.

Originally Posted by [email protected]
Or, someone from the FSB could just shoot him.............
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 09:39
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https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...sea/ar-AAUu6gN

Swiss billionaire Hansjorg Wyss claims Roman Abramovich has offered to sell him and three others Chelsea football club but the Russian is demanding in excess of £2billon.

The 55-year-old oligarch is under the spotlight due to alleged ties to Vladimir Putin, with Labour MP Chris Bryant revealing the Home Office had identified him as a person of interest due to his links to the Russian State and ‘corrupt activity’.

There have been calls for Abramovich, who strongly denies any links to the Russian president, to be sanctioned as part of the government’s response to the invasion of Ukraine and on Saturday he announced he was relinquishing his ‘stewardship and care’ of

Bryant suggested in parliament on Tuesday that Abramovich was ‘terrified’ of having his assets – which includes Chelsea and Stamford Bridge – seized and was in the process of selling multiple properties he owns in London.

Recent reports also claimed Abramovich’s precarious situation had alerted buyers to the possibility that he might be prepared to sell the west London club, which he bought in 2003, with three investors readying huge offers.

Now Wyss, who founded medical device manufacturer Synthes USA and is reported to have a personal net worth of $5.8billion, claims it is Abramovich who is trying to engineer an auction, not the other way around.

Speaking to Swiss newspaper Blick, the 85-year-old said: ‘Abramovich is one of Putin’s closest advisers and friends. Like all other oligarchs, he is also in a state of panic.

‘Abramovich is trying to sell all his properties in England. He also wants to get rid of Chelsea quickly. I and three other people received an offer on Tuesday to buy Chelsea from Abramovich.’

Asked if he will take up the Russian on his offer, Wyss replied: ‘I have to wait four or five days now. Abramovich is currently asking far too much.

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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 10:01
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Originally Posted by Ripton
I would have agreed but I think the longer this goes on the less likely the ascension of anyone associated with Putin will be an acceptable option as they will have become too complicit. If too much time passes they might also see themselves as being trapped. "I am in blood Stepped in so far that, should I wade no more, Returning were as tedious as go o’er." and all that.
Lavrov being one of those already too toxic.
Hmmm, dunno. Lavrov for sure has exposed himself too much for being a credible change. But there might be others in the second row whose role was not as prominent who could (more or less credibly) claim to have had no options of interfering. E.g. the 'poor' Secrete Service Guy who was publicly 'schooled' by Putin lately.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 10:03
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Someone might carry a briefcase into one of the bunker meetings.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 10:21
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Interesting article, possibly russian forces disabling their own vehicles?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/w...-pentagon.html
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 10:40
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Sky News UK reporting a dog fight over Kyev and two Russian aircraft shot down.
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 10:43
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There should be safe amnesty routes for the Russian troops so they can cross into neighbouring areas and flee the fighting.
almost impossible to do at the moment without severe risk from the air but leaflets left lying around everywhere by locals can cause severe mental anguish to the Russians.
”Cold, hungry, tired of sitting in a traffic jam, being shot at and seeing your friends die.
Thought you were going on exercise in Belarus or liberating your Ukrainian brothers and sisters?
Want to be home with Mama or Babushka?
Then walk this way, you will be treated fairly, a hot meal and a vodka awaits…
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 10:44
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Originally Posted by henra
You can be sure the Ukrainian Forces are aware of that convoy and have evaluated their options. And you can be sure they have a much clearer picture of what's doable/worth the risk and what's not than we do have on our safe armchair and keyboard.
Indeed.

It's ridiculous how many times within this thread posters have made 'suggestions' that are pretty much exactly what Ukrainian forces have been doing so far.

It's almost as if such tactics are pretty universally understood....
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Old 2nd Mar 2022, 10:54
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