Originally Posted by
Spunky Monkey
The problem with the convoy being a juicy target is it is an escalation zone for Putin.
He knows the media will be wetting its pants over the excitement - the population will be terrified - the planners will then have to find options to stop it - NATO aircraft are thrown in - after taking out the ZSU-234s and Grails it becomes a turkey shoot.
He has his reason to justify the fight to his people and even start throwing big bombs.
Or we let it pass.
While TB2s can create some carnage, there is every chance that they will be lost and the progress will continue.
It might be better to let them get to their FUPs when they will be by necessity within the range of Ukrainian artillery. You can't have an FUP if you are continually being shelled and the mud in the area will create large obstacles.
The confusion will allow the TB2s to deliver their ordnance against the air defences, leaving space for the new Migs to wreak havoc.
Unless you have a mobile force of your own to attack the flank, there is little that can be done at this moment without the risk of escalation.
Time for a Toyota War. Large numbers of pick up trucks, armed with a heavy MG, a few ATGMs and a Stinger or two. Mobile phones and Starlink for command and control.