Southend-2

[Andy_S]

I don't give a crap what stobart do..
Currently stobart group is worth a shade under 1 billion pounds
Hence my 1 bill airport sale making the shareholders approx 2.60 odd a share plus what's left over ..

Not exactly correct.

The market capitalisation of Stobart is 0.94 billion. What it's "worth" is a bit more subjective. The actual asset value is somewhat less than half of this, and a lot of that is cash.

[SARF]

Ok. You buy it for 500 mill then. See how far you get ..
As for the poster above .. if you own something worth 2.60 and some one offers you 4.00. Then you crack on with your value/worth scenario. You may be at the back of the Q

[mik3bravo]

Regarding the latest results and specifically the aviation division of the group.

I would like to step back to the basic fundamentals, specifically the strategy of the aviation division.

I'm not sure the strategy is clear or worse do SEN management not revisit and review their own strategy? This is for me the most important factor from which all other business priorities must flow.

I don't see how their strategy is either realistic or achievable and it requires revisiting and recalibration or failures will result.

SEN management need to revisit the strategy and validate it is realistic and avhieveable. This factor alone is significantly important in the investors eyes.

We know the theme for the strategy is Grow in aviation. That is a given. What is needed now is rigorous reassessment on the 'how'. Contingency plans to address those segments of the strategy where risk of being unsuccessful in achieving is so important. For example - Cityjet talks collapsed and Flybe stepped in. That's a good example of effective outcome but the rest of the strategies 'how' needs revaluation.

[DC3 Dave]

The first four DUB-SEN flights are sold out.

[mik3bravo]

The first four DUB-SEN flights are sold out.

Their airfare options were very competitively priced. I price checked them a month ago against Ryanair, Cityjet, BA Cityflyer and Aer Lingus. The Flybe airfare was the most competitive. Next nearest was Ryanair at around £40 more expensive by the time you add allocated seat charge. If you add in hold baggage Flybe still come out cheapest.

I hope they can continue to hold those competitively priced tickets.

[LTNman]

Depends on how deep their pockets are.

Definition of success? A half full aircraft that makes a tidy profit with a decent ticket price.

Definition of failure? A completely full aircraft that makes a loss, as the airline tries to attract business and where the airline can’t raise its prices and make a profit.

Forget the first couple of months with its promotional fares. The real test will be in a few months time.

I would imagine economies of scale would come into play at some point.

[tophat27dt]

The first four DUB-SEN flights are sold out.

I am confident that Dublin will do well, but I dont have the same confidence with Manchester. Personally, I prefer Edinburgh to Glasgow cities, but I am sure Stobart have done their homework.

Does anybody know the full 2018 schedule with FlyBe yet?

[Expressflight]

There are 15 destinations in the peak-season Summer 2018 timetable:

ANR 4 x weekly
BUD 3 x weekly
CFR 4 x weekly
CGN 5 x weekly
DBV 2 x weekly
DUB 19 x weekly
GLA 12 x weekly
GRQ 6 x weekly
LYS 5 x weekly
MXP 5 x weekly
MAN 18 x weekly
PRG Daily
RNS 8 x weekly
ZAD 1 x weekly
VIE 4 x weekly

There are also a large number of other destinations bookable as one-stop flights most of which are routed via MAN. I've noted a number of bookings to EDI having been made over the past couple of weeks for example.

Allocating the three EMB195s and the two ATR72s to that schedule seems to show 2 or 3 spare slots per week for the former and half a dozen for the latter. Perhaps there may be an additional route or frequencies to come.

[southside bobby]

The table effectively highlights BEE/Stobart`s only realistic opportunity/method for driving up pax numbers with DUB/GLA & MAN departures on a basic par with the rest of the schedule.
Whilst lifting pax numbers perhaps more important will be the depth of the pockets funding this strategy.

[ErwinFCG]

Does Flybe offer any connecting flights via Southend? It seems they do not for bookings from Groningen, even though that would be useful. For example, the flight from Groningen arrives at SEN at 17:25, with departures from SEN to Dublin, Manchester, and Glasgow at 18:30, 18:35, and 18:30.

For the return flights the connections are not as good (about 4 hours transfer time in SEN), but still I think certainly people from Groningen would use such options (even if it is only for example one-way GRQ-SEN-DUB and then back DUB-AMS or so).

[Expressflight]

Does Flybe offer any connecting flights via Southend? It seems they do not for bookings from Groningen, even though that would be useful. For example, the flight from Groningen arrives at SEN at 17:25, with departures from SEN to Dublin, Manchester, and Glasgow at 18:30, 18:35, and 18:30.

For the return flights the connections are not as good (about 4 hours transfer time in SEN), but still I think certainly people from Groningen would use such options (even if it is only for example one-way GRQ-SEN-DUB and then back DUB-AMS or so).

I know that GRQ were keen to see connections offered to DUB, as were CFR who have succeeded in getting a DUB connection via SEN from April 2018, but no luck so far for GRQ it seems. ANR-SEN also offers connections to MAN and DUB from April 2018. Maybe an idea to ask Flybe why GRQ is not offering that option.

[tws123]

Transatlantic connections available to 12 North American and Canadian destinations via Dublin with Flybe/Aer Lingus.

[Planespeaking]

Transatlantic connections available to 12 North American and Canadian destinations via Dublin with Flybe/Aer Lingus.

That was a very successful operation at SEN some years ago until Flybe effectively snuffed it out. Let's hope commonsense prevails this time.

[southside bobby]

STK/BEE/EIN....who will be "carrying the can" in the event of missed connections?..

[Expressflight]

I'm very pleased to see the US destinations added as I believe they could contribute significantly to the success of the route this time around.

[Planespeaking]

STK/BEE/EIN....who will be "carrying the can" in the event of missed connections?..

I'm sure that has all been formulated, after all that same question could be asked about numerous route combinations world wide.

[ErwinFCG]

Some people on a Dutch forum pointed out that for Summer next year, starting Sunday 25 March 2018, much more flights between Southend and Groningen are loaded into the Flybe booking system.

On weekdays, there are three return flights, on Saturdays 2x GRQ-SEN and 1x SEN-GRQ and on Sundays 1x GRQ-SEN and 2x SEN-GRQ. So that means 18 (!) return flights per week, up from 8 last summer and 6 this winter. Based on the timings (first departure from GRQ at 7:10 and last arrival at 21:10), it seems they plan to base an ATR in Groningen.

For the first week (i.e. the last week of March 2018) all these flights are bookable, but for the rest of the Summer season they are loaded but "Full or not enough seats".

Does anybody know more about this? The passenger numbers on the route are increasing (slowly but surely), but the planes are far from full (I think on average about 50-60%) so tripling the number of flights seems excessive.

[runwayman]

The Ex. ATC Lasham hangar has been repainted & the doors are currently being repaired & refurbished to coincide with the new FBO/Exec lounge/terminal opening.

[southside bobby]

Planespeaking..It was a reasonable question & as you say of course it has been "formulated" so perhaps you might allow the question again?.
Who would be responsible for missed connections due to say w/x at a CAT 1 airport or for m/x,being two such examples.

[asdf1234]

The Ex. ATC Lasham hangar has been repainted & the doors are currently being repaired & refurbished to coincide with the new FBO/Exec lounge/terminal opening.

Do we have a date for the opening of the new facility? I note that whilst Mr. Grimes travelled to Vegas for NBAA that Stobart did not have a stand unlike the competitors (Biggin Hill/London City/Harrods/etc...).

I also note that whereas the FBO advertises itself as open 24/7 the airport regulations concerning night flying restrict the operational hours somewhat. No helicopter flights at night removes the helicopter transfer option and the noise QC limit of 1 means that the BBJ's they are after won't be coming in at night either.

Where exactly are they basing the new FBO? In one of the old ATC Lasham sheds?

[runwayman]

It will be in the old terminal building

[Expressflight]

I also note that whereas the FBO advertises itself as open 24/7 the airport regulations concerning night flying restrict the operational hours somewhat. No helicopter flights at night removes the helicopter transfer option and the noise QC limit of 1 means that the BBJ's they are after won't be coming in at night either.


You are quite correct regarding the helicopter night ban, in hindsight something that Stobart really should not have offered as part of the Section 106 agreement linked to the runway extension, but I thought the BBJ based upon the B737 (700 series) had a QC1 certification. Perhaps I'm mistaken on that point.

[Expressflight]

Some people on a Dutch forum pointed out that for Summer next year, starting Sunday 25 March 2018, much more flights between Southend and Groningen are loaded into the Flybe booking system.

On weekdays, there are three return flights, on Saturdays 2x GRQ-SEN and 1x SEN-GRQ and on Sundays 1x GRQ-SEN and 2x SEN-GRQ. So that means 18 (!) return flights per week, up from 8 last summer and 6 this winter. Based on the timings (first departure from GRQ at 7:10 and last arrival at 21:10), it seems they plan to base an ATR in Groningen.

For the first week (i.e. the last week of March 2018) all these flights are bookable, but for the rest of the Summer season they are loaded but "Full or not enough seats".


That timetable is now bookable right through the summer on the Flybe website and, indeed, an aircraft will be night-stopping in GRQ to operate first and last flights of the day. I really find it quite remarkable that such a great number of seats will be offered on that route. Congratulations to GRQ for securing this and it certainly accounts for the spare slots which were evident when the S2018 schedules were released last week.

[tws123]

That is a huge increase for GRQ. Guess it's worth a try.

[Expressflight]

I imagine that they foresee a big demand for through connections to DUB, MAN and GLA and that these will be bookable quite soon.

[Tagron]

The helicopter night ban at SEN is less restrictive than the operating hours at the advertised destinations of London Heliport and Vanguard, though the Battersea hours can be extended to the same cut off time as SEN. The 737 BBJ is less than QC1 I am sure though I can't find the reference to quote.

[Red Four]

The QC scheme is at AIP Supplement S010/2017 here: NATS | AIS - Home (http://www.nats-uk.ead-it.com/public/index.php%3Foption=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=11&Itemid=18.html).
Pages 9 and 19 show that all B737s are QC1 or less & OK for arrival; except for the now largely obsolete -200s (which are more than QC1), all are OK for departure too. Government and military exempt from QC scheme, although they still count towards the monthly 120 per calendar month limit during the night-period. The QC scheme is not a restriction on B737 operation therefore.
Perhaps asdf1234 using a different QC scheme to the rest of industry?

Agree that the helicopter restriction is somewhat inflexible, this could actually lead to more noise from a helicopter arriving early AM that has to be held until the curfew finishes before landing; this would cause extra noise that the helicopter curfew is meant to eliminate. It would be better to have a limit on helicopter movements, that come into the overall monthly quota.
Police, Coastguard, Helimed and miltary helicopters can operate at night, it shows that exceptions can be made. Allowing a very limited number of civil helicopter movements perhaps should be facilitated by the local Councils.

[asdf1234]

The QC scheme is at AIP Supplement S010/2017 here: NATS | AIS - Home (http://www.nats-uk.ead-it.com/public/index.php%3Foption=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=11&Itemid=18.html).
Pages 9 and 19 show that all B737s are QC1 or less & OK for arrival; except for the now largely obsolete -200s (which are more than QC1), all are OK for departure too. Government and military exempt from QC scheme, although they still count towards the monthly 120 per calendar month limit during the night-period. The QC scheme is not a restriction on B737 operation therefore.
Perhaps asdf1234 using a different QC scheme to the rest of industry?



I take my figures from the EASA list of aircraft approved noise levels, specifically the approach and lateral readings.

[AirportPlanner1]

So is this GRQ based aircraft in addition to the two ATRs based at SEN, or is it one of the two? With the GRQ increase, how are the RNS and CFR routes being operated and is CGN continuing for summer 18?

I was surprised to see in a previous post RNS was still down as only daily, being to date the most successful ATR route.

[Expressflight]

The CGN flights will continue through S2018 on the EMB195 as they do now.

The additional GRQ flights fill the spare slots in the 2 x ATR72 utilisation needed for the Flybe S2018 timetable released last week.

RNS is interesting because Veuling are dropping their RNS-LGW route for next year and you would think that offered the opportunity to increase frequencies on the SEN route. I doubt Stobart would make a third ATR available just to do that though.

[DC3 Dave]

It will be good to see an early morning arrival next year. After all, it is supposed to be a London airport.

Forgetting the mild sarcasm for a moment, lots and lots of early morning arrivals must have been envisaged at one time. The value of the fast plane to train transfer will really benefit arriving passengers heading for the city. It will be interesting to see how well the 0710 GRQ-SEN does.

[BAladdy]

Looks like BE are in the process of increasing LYS from the 5 to 6 x Weekly. Extra flight showing as operating on a Saturday. However only LYS-SEN is currently available to book 6 x weekly. SEN-LYS still showing 5 x Weekly

[cumbrianboy]

The GRQ aircraft is not really GRQ based, it is a SEN aircraft that night stops in GRQ and then operates a full schedule through SEN.

[koninckske]

To me it sounds as work in progress for the schedule to Groningen. I expect the original departure time to Groningen to change to Rennes. This way both could become double daily.

1 GRQ-SEN-GRQ-SEN-ANR/CFR-SEN-MAN-SEN-GRQ
2 SEN-MAN-SEN-RNS-SEN-RNS-SEN-MAN-SEN

Just a guess...

[SEN Observer]

Just a bit more info; this gives some idea of ticket prices.

You can now fly to these destinations from Southend Airport | Echo (http://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/15615329.You_can_now_fly_to_these_destinations_from_Southend _Airport/)

[Expressflight]

As was to be expected following yesterday's announced increase in frequencies connecting flights from GRQ to DUB, GLA and MAN are now on sale wef 26th March 2018.

[DC3 Dave]

It's not quite sorted yet. For example, only one departure from GRQ offering a connection to MAN is available, and none are available for a return - except on Sunday. (I looked at 8/9th May).

So perhaps there's some more to come as suggested by koninchske.

[Expressflight]

I think it's more a case that the first GRQ-SEN cannot connect with the first wave DUB, GLA & MAN departures so maybe they're just playing safe offering the middle of the day departures to DUB and MAN/GLA at this stage. I must admit I didn't look at the return flights and having done so I cannot quite see why only a Sunday return from DUB and MAN is bookable.

Maybe there's some more to come as you say but with respect I don't think there's anything in the suggestion made by koninckske regarding additional RNS flights replacing some of the just announced GRQ schedule.

[Bjarte]

Those connections are pretty bad. There should be connections on the evening wave. The GRQ flight arrives at 17:25 and the flights to Dublin and Manchester depart at 18:30/18:35. So that's a convenient transfer of just one hour. Maybe it has something to do with the minimum connecting time in Southend? Does SEN have transfer facilities like a transfer desk and transfer passageway?

[Expressflight]

The problem seems to be that Flybe quote a Minimum Connection Time (MCT) of 90 minutes at SEN (the same as for STN and LHR although LCY is only 45 minutes) so the evening connections to DUB and MAN don't work.

That MCT certainly seems excessively long for SEN and perhaps they should look at that. MCT at MAN is only 60 minutes for domestic/international transfers and that would seem more reasonable.

[tws123]

And considering SEN's size and speed of transit you would expect it to be nearer 60mins or maybe even less.

[tws123]

There was also a big press launch today at GRQ for the increased SEN service from April next year. A roughly translated press release reads:

From April 2018 the connection between Groningen and London will be greatly expanded. Flybe, run by Stobart Air, is flying three times a day from Groningen Airport Eelde to London Southend Airport. The unit starts and ends the flights at Groningen Airport Eelde every day. A fantastic development for the airport and for the Netherlands.

Marco van de Kreeke (Director of Groningen Airport Eelde): "With this expansion we offer an excellent product for travellers from Northern Netherlands. For them it is now possible to have breakfast at home, to switch to a meeting at noon and to be home again in the evening. Traveling to London? There is now no further argument to fly from another airport. "The traveller can park directly for the terminal, check in advance immediately and need only 40 minutes before departure. Choosing for Groningen Airport Eelde means choosing time and comfort.

Ciaran Smith (Network Development Manager Stobart Air): "The route between Groningen and London has been a popular connection for business and leisure travellers since the beginning of 2014. We see a great demand for service and want to meet this demand with this expansion of air frequency. Now we can offer our passengers more choice and build our good relationship with Groningen Airport Eelde. "

Transfers to Manchester, Dublin and Glasgow

From April 2018 it is also possible to fly through London Southend Airport with a seamless connection to destinations such as Manchester, Dublin and Glasgow. The transfer times are between 45 and 90 minutes.

Incoming travelers

The expansion is also interesting for the tourist ambitions of Northern Netherlands. Michel Aldering (Marketing Groningen) is pleased with this development: "Due to the direct connection from Groningen Airport Eelde Eelde, the region of London has been one of our focus areas for many years. The expansion of flights will increase accessibility and increase in visiting (business) tourists in Groningen. Which of course is good for the region's economy! "

[tophat27dt]

LCY had low cloud problems this morning so once again SEN attracted 7 or 8 diversions I believe, although their arrivals board was very slow keeping the info up-to-date.
KLM, FlyBe, Luxair and BA Cityflyer. Any news on the type of aircraft Powdair plan to use into SEN soon?

[DC3 Dave]

Re the arrivals board, just came across this article from last year.

https://www.internationalairportreview.com/news/22127/london-southend-airport-rated-best-airport-in-the-uk-again-utilising-a-fully-virtualised-saas-it-solution-powered-by-ultra-electronics-airport-systems/

[tophat27dt]

Here are the CAA published pax figures for August.
If anybody knows how to calculate the loads factors, it will be interesting.

Dubrovnik 1543
Zadar 1417
Caen 2091
Lyon 2681
Paris-CDG 4830
Perpignan 1170
Rennes 4719
Cologne 3407
Milan 4127
Venice 1275
Amsterdam 15871
Groningen 2804
Faro 14903
Alicante 12152
Barcelona 4981
Ibiza 3978
Mahon 2375
Malaga 9384
Murcia 2686
Palma 15099
Reus 2700
Prague 4213
Budapest 2479
Vienna 2210
Jersey 5254
Florence 83 (diversion)
Aberdeen 114 (diversion)

TOTAL 128546

[DC3 Dave]

CDG is a real stand out figure for me. Didn't think it would survive given the drop in tourist demand after it was launched.

[mikkie4]

GRONINGEN up 23% on last month, STOBARTS must be pleased with the figs or they wouldn't have increased the flights

[Expressflight]

GRQ was up 23% on August 2016 I think you mean. July was up 28% on last year as well so very good numbers.

[fatmed]

If I am reading the Flybe roster for S18 correctly they’re still a couple of gaps where routes could be flown.

For instance on a Tuesday the first Dublin returns at 10:00 but doesn’t depart again until 14:40. Glasgow
Returns at 10:45 and then departs for Dubrovnik at 15:10. On Monday’s these gaps are filled by Cologne and Lyon.

Do we think anything else will be added or are these gaps being left as is ?

[Expressflight]

There also seems to be availability from 13:15 onwards on Saturdays on one aircraft assuming that isn't a line maintenance slot.

[mikkie4]

GLASGOW,DUBLIN, MANCHESTER,AND MALTA all start today,for a sunday the dept board is looking very healthy. lets hope that it keeps growing

[compton3bravo]

Since when is Malta International Airport called Valeta (spelt incorrectly should be Valletta)? This is being shown on the departures on the website. If it is to be called anything it should be called Luqa or just Malta International. Not very professional especially for a new route.

[DC3 Dave]

Absolutely right, compton3bravo. It appears the airport uses an off-site "specialist" for all I.T. matters which includes the real time information provided. No doubt someone will put them right before the next departure on Thursday - at least I hope they will.

Whilst on the subject of Malta, I see today's and Thursday's return legs are sold out. Looking nearer to home I note the first seven DUB-SEN flights are also sold out. Does this suggest that London Southend is now a destination of choice at last?

[inOban]

From earlier posts, it is said that the introductory fares between SEN and DUB are very attractive. We'll see what the loadings are when more realistic fares are charged.

[Barling Magna]

True enough, but Malta was always a very popular destination from SEN and I'm sue that it will be again.

[tophat27dt]

Malta was never going to be a gamble. Sunday I believe had 155 pax out, and full on the return. However, I heard that Manchester loads were "poor". Maybe they will be better weekdays? Apart from one hour delay on the Glasgow flight on Sunday, everything so far has run on schedule. There has been a discussion on the Ostend forum as to whether a SEN-OST-SEN would work. Mixed feelings there. I know it used to be one of the busiest routes back in the 60s, but they were smaller aircraft and lots of coach/air pax on inclusive packages continuing by bus to the Med resorts. However, with the new possibilities of connections through SEN, and some touristic demands for Brugges and that part of the Belgian coast, I would have thought an ATR type would succeed, even if only for the summer season. However, I think Stobarts 2 aircraft are "fully utilised" for next summer.?

[Expressflight]

All the ATR utilisation is fully taken up for next summer so no chance of OST being added.

I don't think that SEN-MAN can succeed as a stand alone route but if sufficient feed through MAN to onward destinations can be generated then it has a chance. If that proves to be the case it certainty will have added considerably to SEN's attractions to travellers.

[G-AHNL]

Gentlemen

I would be interested to see any pictures of the diversion's into SEN last week also
would like to see any pictures of the resurfaced apron in front of the old terminal.

Thank you in advance

[Barling Magna]

I think you will find what you are looking for on the Facebook page "Southend Airport Movements and Operations".

[8674planes]

I was on the afternoon MAN-SEN flight yesterday and the flight was about 60% full.

[LTNman]

What fare did you pay and when did you book it?

[8674planes]

Booked it late September. Paid about £65 return

[LTNman]

£26 of that will be air passenger duty leaving a fare of £19.50 each way. Subtract fuel, fees and charges to the airline and it’s seems that the airline was paying for you to travel with you making a small contribution.

[Barling Magna]

Yes, I flew on easyJet from Bristol to Newcastle and return earlier this month for a total price of £46.98. By comparison the return rail fare was £179.00. Amazing really, isn't it?

[22/04]

I don't think comparing one off fares really doesn't tell the whole story. . A friend travelled first class (complementary breakfast and non-alcoholic drinks) Milton Keynes- Edinburgh yesterday for £106 return. Standard class was around £80. Neither Easy nor Flybe could match that from LTN or BHX when he booked six weeks ago. Many don't factor in the proper cost of transport to the airport either

[Barling Magna]

You also have to travel to the railway station and pay the high car park fares there, so it isn't that greatly in favour of the rail service. I live in a very rural location so it's as easy to travel to the airport as it is to travel to the rail station.

I'm just making the point that the fare for SEN to MAN is by no means exceptional. It often seems that the airline is paying the passenger to travel.

[SEN Observer]

A little bit from Echo website on the Malta launch.....

First Southend airport flight to Malta hailed a hit by Easyjet bosses | Echo (http://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/15629902.First_Southend_airport_flight_to_Malta_hailed_a_hit _by_Easyjet_bosses/)

[litefoot1]

I was on the afternoon MAN-SEN flight yesterday and the flight was about 60% full.

Really? That's quite funny, so was I!

Actually there were two flights that day - 12:40pm and 8:40pm. I was on the former. Flight was half full.

Outbound plane:

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4459/37326669234_b3c382a061_k.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/YSqWjE)*This* was my plane (https://flic.kr/p/YSqWjE) by goldencondor (https://www.flickr.com/photos/39408774@N05/), on Flickr

I flew back to Manchester on the 18:35 the same day. There were only 16 of us. It was an unmarked plane (no livery at all, just plain white).

https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4511/37982876816_058372f19d_k.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/ZSqaYu)IMG_0090 (https://flic.kr/p/ZSqaYu) by goldencondor (https://www.flickr.com/photos/39408774@N05/), on Flickr

If anyone's interested, I have a load of photos of the airport in the same album.

[canberra97]

Litefoot1

I had a look at your Flickr site I have to say they are excellent pictures and the airside pictures of Southend really shows what an absolutely fantastic terminal it is and looks far larger than I expected as I've not seen the terminal personally, it looks far better than our terminal at SOU and I can imagine with some alterations our terminal could look like Southends internally as it looks quite similar in certain areas.

[Barling Magna]

Yes, I had to check that the photos really were of SEN. It's a while since I've been in the terminal and the recent extension has made a bigger difference than I'd imagined. It looks like a proper airport now.

I remember the old terminal at its height in the '60s - the money I spent buying aircraft kits, Air Pictorial and postcards in that little shop......... I still have the postcards but the kits and magazines are long gone.

[canberra97]

Last time I visited Southend was in 1980 and I've had no reason to revisit but I think I would be totally shocked with the change and hopefully I might pay a visit sometime. I can remember the old terminal very well and I remember that it was particularly busy on a Sunday afternoon with the apron full of BAF Heralds and BMA Viscounts.

[Barling Magna]

It was busy all the time back in the '60s, much busier than the passenger figures for those years suggest because the Bristol Freighters, Carvairs and Vikings didn't carry many pax for a full load. On the other hand Channel Airways shoehorned in the maximum - 88 souls on board their DC-4....

[mik3bravo]

I've just noticed a problem on Avios account details relating to SEN that will impact passengers ability to accrue points on the new Flybe routes operating from SEN and might put some people off from using SEN. SEN should get on Avios to have the issue sorted out quickly.

See details here:

http://www.pprune.org/9944250-post67.htmlhttp://www.pprune.org/9944250-post67.html

[AirportPlanner1]

If reserved seats are a barometer of success (obviously some will leave it until they turn up at check-in), some might find these figures interesting for the rest of today's Stobart flights:

Dublin 77
Prague 73
Glasgow 46
Groningen 16
Manchester 5 & 5

The high number of pre-bookings for Dublin and Prague may just reflect that they are more leisure-orientated routes, nonetheless the last minute fares for MAN are also very low which must be a concern.

[LTNman]

We could hold a sweepstake to guess how long Manchester lasts.

As for the terminal it looks long but very narrow. Is that the case?

[DC3 Dave]

Yes, long and narrow. You head upstairs in the middle to security then back down to departure lounge / gates. The arrivals area is to your right as you face the gates. It's small but should be extended by next summer.

I believe they're coping well with the additional Manchester numbers at the moment.

[Expressflight]

The terminal extension plans submitted last month show that the existing immigration hall will become part of an enlarged departure hall/gate area. The existing baggage reclaim will become the new immigration hall beyond which a new, much larger, baggage reclaim area will have room for three larger carousels for international arrivals. Beyond that will be domestic arrivals with one carousel.

[AirportPlanner1]

We could hold a sweepstake to guess how long Manchester lasts.

In the interest of balance and more thorough analysis, a quick look at tomorrow morning shows 34 seats reserved southbound, though only 13 northbound. So clearly there is some variation between flights, echoing the poster that flew the route last weekend.

[GCILover]

Not all these seats might be reserved either as the airline may have blocked off certain rows for trim purposes

[mik3bravo]

If reserved seats are a barometer of success (obviously some will leave it until they turn up at check-in), some might find these figures interesting for the rest of today's Stobart flights:

Dublin 77
Prague 73
Glasgow 46
Groningen 16
Manchester 5 & 5

The high number of pre-bookings for Dublin and Prague may just reflect that they are more leisure-orientated routes, nonetheless the last minute fares for MAN are also very low which must be a concern.

Curious, has there been any advertising promoting the commuter time efficiency of travelling to/from Manchester by air versus rail?

My initial thoughts are people might perceive it more convenient to travel by train from London to Manchester as opposed to hauling your ass from the City to SEN then same other end on your arrival at Manchester back into the city centre. However, perceptions can often be different to the reality.

The Manchester numbers look disappointing for sure.

Thoughts?

[AirportPlanner1]

Those aren't the final numbers as it doesn't take account of those without pre-booked seats that haven't checked in. Nonetheless, you wouldn't imagine final numbers to be particularly respectable.

I'm not sure this is a viable option for city-city in terms of time as the door to door train journey would surely be quicker, though with next-day return fares of £60 to £100 it is a cost effective option. I would doubt though that many people would even think to look at flights.

It is a good option if you need to travel from Southend's immediate local catchment (say, Essex/Thurrock/Barking etc) to Manchester or the north-west and for a weekend city break, but I just can't see enough demand. Neither do I think enough people connect through MAN to elsewhere.

I see another 1000 tickets are being given away. You have to wonder how many of those that have travelled to date have been on freebies.

[Expressflight]

I can only assume that one of Stobart's thoughts on SEN-MAN was that it would enable them to offer some very good onward connections for SEN catchment pax and for travellers on existing inbound flights to SEN such as GRQ and ANR. That's a sound argument and I'll think you will find that ABZ, BHD, IOM, EXT and, particularly, EDI are already attracting bookings. The problem is that the route is only viable if point-to-point traffic is sufficient to require the 3 x daily service that you really need to make the connection options attractive.

I've flown NWI-MAN mid-week on the D328 when there were 8 pax northbound and 11 coming back so even from a city where rail travel to MAN takes about 5 hours the demand for air travel is weak. The prospect of attracting pax from London to travel to MAN via SEN in any numbers seems unlikely to me simply because the first departure has no London train connection. MAN-SEN has greater possibilities where the only other air option involves arriving at LHR and still requiring a train journey into the City. Any promotion of the route should perhaps be focused at that market. I suspect that a large number of pax on the BA MAN-LHR route are connecting onwards from LHR.

To sum up, that's a lot of capacity to fill, initially at least, for the potential market is quite small and most will still find train travel more convenient and without excellent public surface transport to SEN the cards are stacked against you even further. It's obviously too early to make any judgements yet but things seem to be shaping up much as I anticipated.

[SWBKCB]

Why the obsession on city centre to city centre travel?

[cornishsimon]

I think you boys and girls need to take a chill pill

This is off peak at the start of new routes.

Have a look at NQY-MAN. It started smaller and has built up to decent numbers and then had a summer second rotation added which again sells really well.

MAN is probably 50% point to point and 50% connections both on BE and VS/EK etc

Starting with double daily was always going to prove difficult rather than starting small and building. But the aircraft need to fly somewhere. The route will build and prove successful I suspect.

[AirportPlanner1]

There are two big differences though between NQY-MAN and SEN-MAN.

For point to point, Cornwall-Manchester is further by road than Essex-Manchester. The rail journey is much longer. For connections, there are plenty of non-stop and indirect options from London's airports whereas from Cornwall there are very few outside of the UK.

[DC3 Dave]

SEN-MAN is 3X daily.

If passenger numbers are in line with Stobart's expectations at this point, and they intend to play a long game then there's no problem. But we can be fairly certain that Manchester have not offered Stobart a stunning deal in the same way Groningen or Antwerp may have, so at some stage those rotations need to generate significant income just to break even.

Remember, when Stobart came along they saw the future as niche freight and regional passenger flights. They're now backing themselves to deliver the latter part of their own vision. I guess they'll give their choices every opportunity to come good.

[southside bobby]

cornishsimon..
Do you have any insight into standalone financial results concerning say NQY-MAN?.
You happily point out pax numbers when you constantly champion NQY, an airport & operation subsidised by the taxpayer & therefore not a natural font of commercial reality that the "boys & girls" on this thread are probably alluding to.
"But the aircraft need to fly somewhere" is not maybe Chapter One in any airline executive`s How To Operate A Successful Enterprise textbook either with all due respect.

[cornishsimon]

No inside knowledge at all.

I know how much our TA pays to fly me too and from MAN or connect me through MAN, I know not the yields involved. But it costs considerably more to fly NQY-MAN than it does to fly SEN-MAN.

All I’m saying is that I think the route will grow the liter it’s left to bed in and the more codeshares and connections it serves.

It’s a bit too soon to be writing the route off in my opinion.

Before long you will end up with CX, EK, VS, AY etc codeshares and SEN will be opened up to a vast amount of airports that currently aren’t an option, the route will grow.

[southside bobby]

Am I missing something here?.
"CX,EK,VS,AY etc" are all available for SEN customers from a little field to the West called eerrr LHR!....
It has been pointed out SEN ain`t NQY in terms of geography.

[cumbrianboy]

The route is a week old and it will take time for people to realise it's there and remember when planning travel and to book.

With loads up to 40+ that I have seen so far it's OK, yes there are some flights with very low numbers, but some are decent.

I remember when RNS started and used to carry 8 people at a time ...

[SARF]

LHR from Southend is not a pleasant trip.. any one trying to get to west London from Essex today was in for a nasty shock.. plus factoring the three hours before your flight to be safe..

Flying to MAN doesn't seem that bad .. In Fact flying to Amsterdam is less hassle. Apart from the taxing!

[LTNman]

That will change when Crossrail opens next year. Crossrail could be a double edged sword for Southend. It could help bring passengers into the airport but will also make it quicker for natural Southend passengers to get to the main London rail terminals and Heathrow.

Also worth noting that the travel time from Stratford to Heathrow will be quicker than to Southend Airport.

[DC3 Dave]

It's true that it will take 3 minutes less to reach Heathrow T2,3 on Crossrail from Stratford than Southend Airport by train, but as been pointed out before, unless things change dramatically the train to departure gate will lose you a great deal more than 3 minutes at LHR.

Remember there will be no direct service from Stratford to Heathrow until December 2019. The central Liverpool St to Paddington section will open then linking east to west. So the SEN-MAN flights have a couple of years to prove their worth before the threat that LTNman talks about. Time enough to become established if the demand exists.

[Expressflight]

By the same token it will make it quicker for pax arriving at SEN to reach their various London destinations, including the main rail terminals. I'm sure that overall Crossrail will be advantageous for SEN.

[Barling Magna]

Anyone thinking that the road journey from Southend to Heathrow is worth doing unless you absolutely have to......... hasn't tried to drive it.

[southside bobby]

The last posters are taking my comment concerning SEN & LHR far far too literally.
I stated SEN CUSTOMERS have a choice of LHR for the hub connectors NOT Southend residents per se as has been misinterpreted with parochial comments as above.
There is a subtle & not so subtle difference between those two components & description.
Unless of course MAN is just pitched at the worthy residents of Southend only.

[Barling Magna]

Fair point, SB. Having made that journey around the M25 a number of times you touched a raw nerve!

[compton3bravo]

Just returned (thank goodness) from a eight days in the UK on family business and had to travel on the M25 a few times. What a nightmare, spent quite a time stopped near Heathrow watching aircraft taking off while in the car not moving. How on earth people put up with it each day I do not know. As for the Manchester route give it time but I would be surprised if it lasted into next summer.

[Musket90]

Stationery on the M25 near Heathrow in either direction is a daily occurrence. Watching the take-offs (westerly) and landings (easterly) helps reduce the frustration.

[tws123]

So now we're into November do we assume that the new airline isn't coming now?

[mik3bravo]

When did they first announce news on this and more importantly when did they state it come become active?

[tws123]

Personally, I think if we hear nothing by 1st November, we can forget about that one, and move on. Not all exciting plans work out.
Now that date has passed, is there any update?

[Expressflight]

I think wider events in the UK airline industry of late have contributed to the planned operation possibly being postponed. I cannot elaborate on that I'm afraid.

[tws123]

That is a shame for SEN, but understandable.

[LTNman]

Sorry I have lost it. Who was meant to have come and didn't:confused:

[fatmed]

There was some talk about a month ago from top hat that a New British airline were about to announce starting sen next year with 4 based aircraft. Hey ho not to be it seems.

[Planespeaking]

Sorry I have lost it. Who was meant to have come and didn't:confused:

Ah that's the big question Ltnman. There has been rumour and conjecture, spiced up with secret squirrel posts
for months.

I think there was something going on, but it wouldn't surprise me if Stobart messed up the negotiations, after all their track record doesn't fill me with confidence.

[Expressflight]

I don't think that was the case. It was for reasons over which Stobart simply had no control.

[asdf1234]

There aren't that many UK based airlines that can use the runway at SEN so it should just be a matter of elimination. We can exlclude Aurigny, Blue Islands and Loganair. BMI Regional might be a possibility as they would most probably like a near-London base. Could Thomas Cook base their A321 fleet at SEN? Don't think the runway is sufficient for their needs. Do we exclude the B737/757 operators due to runway restrictions? If we do, that then leaves BA (who have their hubs and most probably don't need another one) and....BA City Flyer!

I'm scratching my head about what has happened recently in the UK airline sector to make a possible deal fall over? Surely not Monarch?

[CCGE29]

Airlines will look to replace lost capacity at former ZB hubs before looking to SEN. LGW and MAN will be the first that airlines look to replace capacity as they are both slot constrained.

EZY are looking to replace capacity at MAN in addition to Jet2 further expanding at both BHX & MAN for S18.

SEN will likely not see major expansion until at least 2019 when Brexit negotiations have been completed and lost capacity from former Monarch hubs is replaced.

[DC3 Dave]

Perhaps we'll never know. But an interested party can delay / postpone a decision to operate out of the airport in the sure and certain knowledge that they can revisit that decision at some future point without disadvantaging themselves in any way.

That wouldn't be the case at other London airports, where opportunities need to be grabbed or lost.

[Plane.Silly]

Bearing in mind these former ZB bases were already close to full before. slack seems to have been picked up from operators already, so any further expansion plans, could bring it all back to SEN. Who knows?

[AirportPlanner1]

Long shot but was this Norwegian? Technically a UK airline as they have a UK AOC, moving the Scandinavian routes to SEN to free up their LGW slots for long-haul?

[tws123]

Doubt it was Norwegian as they have a fleet of 737-800's which can't operate fully loaded into SEN.

[AirportPlanner1]

They couldn't be "fully loaded" but they wouldn't need to be going up to Oslo, Copenhagen etc. I guess the question is whether they could operate an -800 with 189 pax, a couple of hours fuel and some baggage in and out of SEN to those sorts of destinations. I don't know, but I know a rugby charter made it a couple of years back

[Expressflight]

No, the B738 cannot operate effectively from SEN due to its landing distance requirement. I think the inbound payload would be about 75 pax and even then careful fuel management would be needed to achieve that.

Could I just remind everyone that I said "... the planned operation possibly being postponed." So not necessarily all doom and gloom on that front.

[inOban]

Bearing in mind these former ZB bases were already close to full before. slack seems to have been picked up from operators already, so any further expansion plans, could bring it all back to SEN. Who knows?
I haven't been keeping an exact count, but I don't think the increases offered by Jet2 etc anywhere near matches the number of ZB flights lost. Hardly surprising: one of the reasons Monarch folded was that, looking forward, the UK-origin passenger market is looking very fragile as the economy virtually flatlines. A lot of business plans must have assumed continuing near double digit growth.

[cornishsimon]

THeres a strong suggestion that Jet2 could well be using 3 A330s next summer so a decent attempt to add seats to the core routes.

[canberra97]

It's not a strong rumour as it has already been confirmed by Jet2 that they will be using two A330s next summer not sure about a third aircraft.

[Plane.Silly]

@InOban

I wasn't suggesting just Jet2, TCX and TUI(BY) have also added a lot of extras as well. Fr also stated they'd pick up the slack too. Just a shame SEN can't really support them

[inOban]

I wasn't suggesting just Jet2. That's why I added 'etc' to avoid listing all the possibilities. And of course upsizing the a/c eases pressure on slots. I still think that PAX growth is/may be very sluggish, but I have no inside knowledge. And those who do are unlikely to share it for commercial reasons.

[DC3 Dave]

All the talk of 738 operators and SEN's runway always takes me back to the 2001 plan to extend the runway by 450 metres, moving St. Laurence Church - or more likely demolishing it. That died in 2002 when the church was granted Grade 1 listed status.

Stobart came along after 'Plan B' - a 300 metre extension was proposed by Regional Airports. Stobart understood the limitations but saw a future that involved niche freight and regional passenger services.

Easyjet came along and changed everything, and there are contributors to this thread who say their presence has been detrimental to the airport's prospects. Certainly, a lot of posters discuss whether another LCC can be persuaded to operate from SEN, and get frustrated about the many that cannot.

Really, Stobart have to back their original vision. I guess they're doing that right now.

[southside bobby]

For the timeline.
MON ceased ops 2.10.17.
One week later on 9.10.17 Post # 124 Expressflight wrote "that an important announcement maybe forthcoming within the next month".(With caveat).
Then on 10.10.17 Post #124 Tophat wrote "news of a new operator and the routes should be announced before Christmas".(Caveated).
Then on 11.10.17 Post #135 therefore a full 9 days after events..Tophat wrote again..
"I can tell you that the airline concerned is British,4 aircraft based,up to 20 destinations. But I think soon there will be an official announcement".(Caveated).
So events 9 days later it appears had had no material effect on Tophat`s predictions.

[Plane.Silly]

I tip my Tophat to you sir

[tws123]

Surely this demonstrates that SEN was a 2nd/3rd choice for said airline? It shows they'd much rather take on the ex-Monarch slots at LTN or LGW than expand their coverage from another airport (if Monarch's demise is the reason for the postponement)? Perhaps I'm being a bit harsh...

[tophat27dt]

It does seem, for now (or ever), that things are on hold regarding the "new operator" from SEN. Thinking back, I did wonder if the suggestion of 20 routes was a back-up plan just in case the current deal with FlyBe was to be terminated, for whatever reason. I failed to come up with 20 additional destinations, but Stobarts still predict there will be more routes to come in the future.
I did receive a couple of personal messages from people closely connected to SEN who felt I should not have surrendered such information at a stage when negotiations were taking place. One even suggested my words could harm the situation.
Unless the owners of all these factions actually log in and take notice of "rumours" on pprune, i doubt it, but of course staff may well be spies into all these plots.
I never named the airline concerned so doubt if I had a big effect on it all.
For now, this subject, and the visits by Wizzair to SEN, seem to have no immediate fruitition, but I am quietly (sic) confident SEN will be offering more routes for 2019.

[tophat27dt]

Surely this demonstrates that SEN was a 2nd/3rd choice for said airline? It shows they'd much rather take on the ex-Monarch slots at LTN or LGW than expand their coverage from another airport (if Monarch's demise is the reason for the postponement)? Perhaps I'm being a bit harsh...


As far as I am aware, this has nothing to do with Monarch's demise.

[daz211]

So now it’s not happening can you name the airline? I guess not.

[asdf1234]

Other than BA CityFlyer who could it possibly be?

[Expressflight]

For now, this subject, and the visits by Wizzair to SEN, seem to have no immediate fruitition, but I am quietly (sic) confident SEN will be offering more routes for 2019.

I'm hopeful that EZY may announce an extra route or two for S2018 although I've no inside information to back that up. I believe they normally announce new routes for the next Summer in early December don't they?

Regarding the 'other matter' I wonder if the continued slowness of the Brexit negotiations finally caused them to put their plans on hold until some certainty is forthcoming. I can imagine a situation existing where negotiations had been going on for many months in the expectation that clarity would be provided on Brexit before the time to sign/announce the deal arrived. When this didn't happen perhaps a delay was thought prudent. Just a theory and again I have nothing definite to base it upon.

[daz211]

Brexit Smexit ... it’s not like Brexit just started in November.
It’s not stopping other airlines launching new routes and expanding existing bases.

[AirportPlanner1]

Pre-booked/online check-in numbers for this evenings flights on the new routes (from/to SEN):

Dublin: 88/44
Glasgow: 34/36
Manchester: 19/2

Obviously yields are the important bit but so far Dublin has seemed to be a success, I've noticed quite a few flights have been sold out.

Manchester, sometimes you're looking at a private jet experience

[Expressflight]

Brexit Smexit ... it’s not like Brexit just started in November.
It’s not stopping other airlines launching new routes and expanding existing bases.

I wasn't suggesting that "Brexit just started in November" but that so little apparent progress has been made so far. It's one thing to launch new routes if you're adding to your existing network or to expand your existing bases but it's quite another matter, in my view, if you're contemplating starting a completely new operation.

[AirportPlanner1]

Is wizz this mystery airline? Like Norwegian, don't they also now have a U.K. operation? This is also one that now has access to additional slots at an existing station.

[daz211]

I wasn't suggesting that "Brexit just started in November" but that so little apparent progress has been made so far. It's one thing to launch new routes if you're adding to your existing network or to expand your existing bases but it's quite another matter, in my view, if you're contemplating starting a completely new operation.

Well someone must have forgotten to tell the 4 new airlines who are launching new routes from Stansted and one of them is setting up a new base maybe they didn’t get the Brexit memo.

[LGS6753]

Monarch's demise has taken 35 aircraft out of the mix. That includes 4+ at LTN and 9+ (?) at LGW. That's a fair number to replace, and LTN/LGW will be viewed more favourably by most airlines than SEN.
We can expect some replacement of MON capacity from EZY, TUI & TCX at both airports, and perhaps BA at LGW and Blue Air at LTN. FR may be in a position to introduce new capacity by next summer, but are likely to favour STN.
Under these circumstances, I can't see SEN attracting any significant new operator in 2018.

[DC3 Dave]

SEN was failing to attract new operators before the Brexit referendum and that has not changed since. Over the same period other London airports seem barely able to cope at times with the demand. On the face of it Southend Airport has grown significantly over the last few months but the growth has been organic.

As for the reports of operators meeting with Stobart and having the grand tour of the airport - perhaps carrying out technical assessments - I don't doubt it for a minute. But when it all goes back to head office other options are preferred.

One day the groundwork being carried out may produce results. Who knows what will be the trigger? Perhaps a falling out between an operator and another airport.

[southside bobby]

Mmmmmm...
I would feel that the operators/managements of other airports in the SE are way too professional to allow for that throw of the dice.
But perhaps it depends on what is meant as "a falling out".
Anyways a change from the looking for the growth "overspill" from other dromes.
But either way realistically it no way to project future growth.

[DC3 Dave]

I think the point I'm trying to make is that nobody - absolutely nobody - sees having a presence at SEN as a must. Easyjet saw a one-off opportunity to get in first and have managed to operate without hindrance for a number of years. In my view no LCC is going to arrive and challenge EZY on their 'no brainer' routes, because they're not sufficiently motivated to get involved in a price war just to become 'The Big Cheese' at London Southend.

Wizz probably would give consideration to SEN because their routes would not conflict, but not as their first or even second choice.

Despite what I'm saying I'm not pessimistic about SEN's future. Keep calm and carry on.

[mik3bravo]

You have to question what are the principal reasons some carriers are not prepared to establish a base at SEN?

Is it matters like for example the airports insistence on using Stobart ground handling, where carriers may have more established commercial relationships with likes of Swissport or Menzies.

Are cost's a factor in the negotiations insofar as the cost saving incentives on the table from SEN are not attractive enough?

You do have to question the root causes of the slow uptake, something doesn't stack up in all of this discussion. I think the notion of 'built it, and they will come' is dangerous.

Easyjet is a welcome name to put some respectability into SEN to showcase to other potential carriers but not sure if their presence is seen as a commercial dominance that may put other potential carriers off using SEN.

I'm curious why the Cityjet discussion's collapsed, what was it down to?

[southside bobby]

DC3 Dave...
Yes agree.
You being an observer of SEN I would not doubt your view on SEN`s future & the to you affordable personal sentiment as indicated,but the query might be how large is writ "keep calm & carry on" on the office walls of Stobart Towers.
As you rightly point out growth now is "organic" which effectively means Stobart still funding that extra.
It has been observed here that to fund the airfield business Stobart are (while searching for new custom?)progressively selling off the family silver.

[southside bobby]

Ryanair hope to put in place a long haul connectivity deal with Aer Lingus in 2018.
With multiple jet services over STN-DUB-STN would this remove STK/BEE`s USP on their more limited ATR DUB service for the good folk of Essex & catchment?.

[AirportPlanner1]

It's an E195 this time around, early days but the loads seem to have been pretty good including quite a few sold out. What is pleasing is that many of those aren't the flights that connect to transatlantic. Depends where you live really, Chelmsford is marginal but if you're in Southend, Basildon and along the A13 SEN is by far the better option.

[southside bobby]

Appreciate the viewpoint....Ta.

[LTNman]

You have to question what are the principal reasons some carriers are not prepared to establish a base at SEN?

I think the point I'm trying to make is that nobody - absolutely nobody - sees having a presence at SEN as a must.

Think that hits the nail on the head. Even SEN biggest fans will probably admit that operating out of SEN is unlike operating out of the other London Airports.

The pros are no slot restrictions, a railway station and and comfortable terminal with no overcrowding although Stobart would be keen to change that situation.

The cons are many including a short narrow runway which will always limit the airports appeal and rule out many airlines even if they wanted to give the airport a try.

No public transport during the all important first and last wave, which is a major issue for non UK based passengers.

The airport is not 24 hour for the airlines and nor is the terminal.

The runway is CAT 1, which while this might not be a massive issue will have an impact.

Not a great track record of keeps routes.

Then there is availability of other airports to absorb expansion and I think this is the killer at the moment. Much has been written here about spare capacity at Southend but that same spare capacity exists at some other London Airports and more is on the way.

Oh for a wonderful Southend experience at my own local airport but it isn't going to happen and the low cost airlines don't seem to care. What they see, and it surprises me, is an airport where there is proven demand despite passengers hating the place.

It is my opinion that Luton is only where it is today due to a lack of slots at Gatwick and Luton has got some of the spillover as has Stansted. That spill over hasn't reached Southend yet.

Monarch is no more so both Gatwick and Luton will be keen to replace that capacity. Both Luton and Stansted have more than enough spare capacity to keep Southend out of the picture for a few more years and Gatwick now also has slots available.

It is not all gloom though as I have already mentioned in the past. If an airline wanted to put in a fairly large presence in a single hit and SEN runway met their requirements the airport is the only airport that could offer a bunch of slots in a tight time period during peak periods. All the other London airports could only offer random slots over a longer period.

I think this is Southend's best hope of attracting a new airline as random slot requirements will be picked up in the main by the other London Airports.

[DC3 Dave]

I don't think Stobart ever considered the possibility of easyjet or the like coming along. They knew the runway would rule out many if not most. They saw a world full of smaller aircraft and an endless demand for regional services. Somehow, easyjet have blurred the original vision. Perhaps they got greedy and unwilling to offer reasonable terms to smaller operators in the belief that where easyjet led others were bound to follow.

[mik3bravo]

Will Stobart get to the point where it will need to unwind it's position on its investment in SEN. I simply do not see a medium to long term value to the group at this juncture.

[southside bobby]

Southend Airport in itself is a hostage to fortune.
To understand the future is to understand Stobart`s reasoning & business objectives originally.
I think all those scenarios have been well rehearsed here but all now in nearly 2018 possibly indicate misjudgement at the very least,the only get out of jail card being perhaps it was always viewed & expected to be funded as a decades long slog.Somehow I doubt though that was the intention of the project.
This thread goes round in circles...hopes raised..hopes reassessed continually.
SEN`s commerciality is going to be determined within the Stobart boardroom & the personal motives in play there but they are playing in a big boys world & hopefully now not subsumed to a mere vanity project as every competitor around is owned by multi billion pound groupings & are v v good at what they do.

[AirportPlanner1]

I'd say Southend is also very good at what it does...in my opinion SEN's ultimate potential is midway between where it is now and where Stobart want it to be. That is, five to six based Airbuses flying off to the popular beach and skiing resorts along with Amsterdam and a couple of other major cities, some props or RJs doing a few runs to the likes of Dublin and Edinburgh and a few niche routes like Rennes.

[DC3 Dave]

I'm with you AirportPlanner1. But it's hard to argue against SS's 'Hostage to fortune' remark when Stobart have developed a habit over the years of making predictions that keep coming back to bite their own backsides.

[southside bobby]

AirportPlanner1..
Yes I can see the picture you paint but is that really really where Stobart want to be?.
Not being at all disrespectful but just saying in any business term that is really a "nothing" situation meaning it`s neither one thing or the other.
Whilst enthusiasts for the airport would grab it,I always understood that any successful business needs to grow & not plateau.
That scenario is way too comfortable & then itself open to those particular market vagaries.
Any business not expanding is open itself to acquisition....BUT.....maybe that idea is still a player at HQ.
As I stated anybody trying to see the future requires the original motives some of which are not now in play.

[AirportPlanner1]

Southside you're right to an extent but a lot businesses including airports do plateau either though constraints (SEN probably fits well into that category) or because their market has a natural limit. The issue for Stobart is whether SEN's current output and actual potential is profitable, or better still provides an acceptable return on investment. Of course Stobart as an airport operator are small, it might be that their profit in SEN comes from its sales value. Or that they can grow as a business and benefit from economies of scale and relationships with airlines across a portfolio of airports.

Of course passengers is just one revenue stream, bizjets and freight for example might be a source of growth as they get squeezed out elsewhere.

[mik3bravo]

@ssb - I think part of problem right now are really two things:

(a) what were the original motives of Stobart (before Easyjet arrived on the scene)

(b) it isn't at all clear what the strategy has now become for SEN^

^2017 - deliver passenger growth to achieve 2.5m passengers at £8pp EBITDA. By 2022 achieve 5m+ passenger growth at £10 pp EBITDA.

However, those numbers are the 'what' within their stated strategy detailed in the annual report but what I am specifically interested in understanding is the 'how' and in some detail so it can be determined if the approaches adopted will deliver, in other words, shareholder value.

Dividend yield is short term but of real critical importance is achieving plan. I'm finding it difficult to see 'how' plan will be delivered. There seems to be a slowing of progress.

[DC3 Dave]

mik3bravo

This statement from Andrew Tinkler in December 2008 gives a clue to their original motives.

Stobart Chief Executive Andrew Tinkler said: ”At one stroke we have found our Southern base and greatly enhanced our position as a leading point-to-point service provider for customers in the UK and Europe who require fast and efficient services by air as part of their logistics solutions.

“We have already started talking to a number of airlines to investigate new passenger services.”

[mik3bravo]

I get the point-to-point logistics air freight revenue generation.

What seems considerably more challenging for Stobart, is these 'talks' with 'other airlines' which appear very slow in delivering substance of commercial value. It is specifically this point where investors are fixed when monitoring the plan for the aviation division of the group. If for example cost savings are not sufficient to attract new airlines to operate consistently from SEN then teaser commercial incentives are necessary to sweeten deals. As much as SEN want to attract new airlines it simply will not advance at a pace to ensure plan is delivered if there isn't a recalibration of tactics to achieve the plan.

[southside bobby]

Valid responses...
AirportPlanner1..Exactly as you say regarding "profitability now & in the future & an acceptable return on investment",some which is being spun thru other segments of the empire inc STK obviously & with limited clarity therefore.
mik3bravo.....
Item(b)..Agreed.."It isn`t at all clear what the strategy has now become for SEN"..
This being the reason for all the diverse & endless postings here.
From the current perspective it does appear SEN has retreated ? or is establishing a very local market in complete divergence with the aim of being a London Gateway & the brow creasing comments from the Airport CEO concerning SEN & the "London" market. DC3 Dave....
Yes I had forgotten their original statements concerning "logistic solutions by air"...That appeared to go very quickly & quietly.
Gone or backburner?.
It took many years to get out of the ground at Carlisle with warehousing for surface logistics due planning but I have witnessed the result/build at one end of the airfield.

[southside bobby]

Ho hum...
Some reasoned thought there....but!!!..
Conclusion?..
Stobart are playing the smartest game ever...OR
Stobart have been worthily opportunistic in aviation ventures but in terms of management for aviation as time goes by are pretty out of their depth.
White Knight?..
There has been a Knight literally hovering over BOH last week..Oooops that`s a funny BTW & no way starting a rumour.
It does appear tho that UK regional airports are coalescing into a single entrepreneurial
real estate empire.

[mik3bravo]

https://www.caa.co.uk/Data-and-analysis/UK-aviation-market/Airports/Datasets/UK-airport-data/

Am I missing something here, looking through the data and SEN pax CYTD numbers not apparent?

To recap, 2017 full year pax target stated in the business plan was to deliver 2.5m pax in 2017.

We are in month 11 now, I want to see the hard data on volume of pax CYTD.

[flight_mode]

From https://www.caa.co.uk/Data-and-analysis/UK-aviation-market/Airports/Datasets/UK-Airport-data/Airport-data-2017-09/

As of 03 November 2017, the following airports are not yet available for reporting and are therefore excluded: Exeter, Gatwick, Inverness, Kirkwall, Leeds Bradford, Luton, Southend, Stornoway and Sumburgh. The next scheduled refresh of airport publications will be 17 November 2017.

[mik3bravo]

Cheers,fm:ok:

[SEN Observer]

Not too exciting but look, another award!

London Southend Airport wins W17/18 public vote Part I (http://www.anna.aero/2017/11/08/vote-favourite-cake-part-ii/?utm_source=anna.aero+newsletter&utm_campaign=a0903503b1-anna_nl_081117&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ecdbf41674-a0903503b1-86887737)

[LTNman]

What seems considerably more challenging for Stobart, is these 'talks' with 'other airlines' which appear very slow in delivering substance of commercial value.

Wizz have stated that they want the Monarch slots at both Gatwick and Luton. If they had any plans for Southend, which to be honest I have always doubted, then I would think they have been put into the long grass.

[southside bobby]

SEN Observer......I`m certain,well hoping anyway your re-posting is tongue in cheek...Please tell the forum it is as your sense of humour cannot be gauged exactly.

[SEN Observer]

ss bobby...a big fuss about nothing Definitely tongue in cheek. Thought it might lighten things up a bit. Didn't expect to be questioned on it!!

[southside bobby]

SEN Observer....No big fuss at all....Great stuff,tongue in cheek...I had already seen the article on site..My only problem TBH is you could have lightened the forum absolutely by making your comments attached properly funny..
SEN beats Mr Kipling at it`s own game...sorry not too funny that one,there must be good ones tho....Oh well...

[DC3 Dave]

This is a SENsational award in an international competition so stop baking the rise, please. London Southend. More bake off than takeoff.

You will also note SEN have won THE BEST WATER ARCH FROM A FIRE TRUCK award. A pretty good effort considering the lack of practice............

[SWBKCB]

"Stobart plots expansion into FBO market"

Re-hashing old news for SEN I think, though are the expansion noises new?

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/stobart-plots-expansion-into-fbo-market-442956/

[southside bobby]

Well you make me laugh....excellent post DC3 Dave....v funny..

[mik3bravo]

Flybe radio adverts blitzing prime morning radio in Ireland advertising low cost flights to London Southend. Currently running the adverts on the Newstalk FM Breakfast show.

I need to check the Martin & Su morning slot on Heart. Hopefully they are blasting the airwaves with SEN new service's. Perhaps a competition for free tickets to some of the new destinations will be good.

[LTNman]

"Stobart plots expansion into FBO market"

Re-hashing old news for SEN I think, though are the expansion noises new?

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/stobart-plots-expansion-into-fbo-market-442956/

I would have thought that of all the markets to crack a successful FBO would be the easiest.

[southside bobby]

But again up against some of the cutest slickest main operators,facilities & networking.

[DC3 Dave]

Have you seen this LTNman: £1,000 for 24 hrs parking compared to (they claim) £7,000 at LTN.

Stobart Jet Centre (http://stobartexecutive.co.uk/news.php)

I've seen a pic recently (yours I think) of biz jets at LTN so crowded together they're in danger of breeding. Think there's a little more room at SEN at the moment.

[southside bobby]

Obviously price then is of NO consequence for the BizAv owners & operators.It goes with the ownership territory.
You may care to regard charges at Palm Springs say.
It would be perhaps a better plan & result for SEN & for Stobart to invite in a recognized & well known FBO to run the facility with their networking as all other normal airports do rather than again keep it in house.
It appears with Stobart all has to branded Stobart...that`s either genius or............
Perhaps Stobart crisps & cola in the terminal to look forward to.

[DC3 Dave]

I absolutely disagree that price is of no consequence. The cost of these running these aircraft is often tightly and professionally managed. If I may misquote a line from an old sitcom, "I didn't get where I am today without knowing how to run a tight ship - sorry biz jet."

I think this enterprise needs to be kept in perspective. They average 3 biz jets per day. They're looking to double that within a year. Seems reasonable to me.

[mik3bravo]

I understand the reservation around in-housing everything at Stobart, yes it is either genius, or commercial naivety.

It's genius if Stobart deliver product & service better than the rest of the pack. There are 'rumours' around why Cityjet dumped progressing talks with SEN, I hope Stobart are being realistic.

So far they are behind stated corporate plan for SEN carrying 2.5m passengers in 2017. Key is having realistic and achievable targets, let's hope the biz jet ops becomes a big success for them, I wish them well but I too am somewhat sceptical given performance and poor execution elsewhere in their strategy. Focus is needed on getting passenger numbers up, plus getting another major carrier or two operating sustainable services into SEN, I've concerns the biz jet strand may distract and dilute getting back to the basics and core strategic objective.

[southside bobby]

DC3 Dave..
mmmm...Regarding price have you been around some of the FBO operations say in the US?.Costs come with the ownership territory.
Regarding pricing of destination airfields & associated FBO`s the company wants to be where they want to be...for them the plane is a highly efficient tool & they do not invest 10`s of millions of dollars to penny pinch & land the CEO where the only thought process is to save a buck or two.Mark that that is a worldwide remark & not regarding SEN.
Yes,many companies have their assets professionally managed now & this has been the main process of cost control by being able to eliminate the costs of running their own flight departments....keeps the shareholders happier.
Which follows on from my previous..as as you say these aircraft are often tightly and professionally managed why not invite in a recognised FBO who network with these guys worldwide.
I thought that Stobart in a statement(here we go again) regard 22000 movements per year over SEN as achievable early next decade.
BTW I have been thinking as I have been typing but no I do not recall "CJ" in The Rise & Fall of R....... P..... ever having the use of a BizJet :))

[AirportPlanner1]

Southside, your comment about valuing location and convenience is albsolutely correct but SEN is one of the better options for Canary Wharf and I would have thought that is a market Stobart would be right to seek to exploit.

[southside bobby]

Correct with the proximity of Canary Wharf.LCY itself & STN in the market.
My main point/s were my view of costs & pricing generally concerning many BizAv operators & not to continue labouring it,why do Stobart have to have all " in house"?..
Genius...Controlling....or.......?

[LTNman]

I think this enterprise needs to be kept in perspective. They average 3 biz jets per day. They're looking to double that within a year. Seems reasonable to me.

During busy periods Luton can have 3 biz jet movements in 10 minutes. If Stobart’s cannot add an extra 3 movements in 24 hours then they are incompetent.

Luton is shut overnight for the next few weeks so Southend should pick up some business.

[Expressflight]

There are 'rumours' around why Cityjet dumped progressing talks with SEN, I hope Stobart are being realistic.


If there are such rumours doing the rounds I haven't come across them but I'm pretty sure it was Stobart who withdrew from the negotiations not the other way around.

As far as the new SEN FBO's ability to attract serious amounts of new business is concerned I must admit that I'm sceptical as to how much can be achieved. Name recognition among your target audience is required and Stobart don't have that unfortunately. A doubling of current activity might well be achievable but that wouldn't be much to shout about. Possibly the temporary closure of Northolt in Spring 2018, rumoured to be for several months, might attract some of their 12,000 business movements per annum on a temporary basis at least.

[compton3bravo]

It has also got to beat geographical thing. if you are doing business in the very North of London and in the Bedford, Milton Keynes area, not a lot of point operating into Southend. Also from people who used to work for a well known FBO at Luton said that many 'stars' like to stop in the West End, so straight down the M1 and A5 to 'downtown London Englandland'!

[DC3 Dave]

There's some criticism of Stobart for not seeking a known FBO provider. It should be remembered they did advertise in the trade press a while back seeking 'Expressions of interest' from established FBO companies. No idea if they had serious discussions. If no-one came forward (come back when you have some aircraft for us perhaps), I wouldn't be too critical if they decided to do their own thing.

As Expressflight has pointed out it was Stobart who pulled the plug on the Cityjet deal (unless there is another version of events out there) much to the chagrin of the later. I sure it was a multi-faceted decision, but I believe the SSJ was a significant factor.

[LTNman]

Why would Stobart’s pull a deal with CityJet when it is already rumoured that Easyjet pay next to nothing in fees? Was it actually anything to do with fees? What has the SSJ got to do with anything? Why would Stobart turn down passengers? All seems very strange to me.

Oh the icing on the cake for the airport is that there will be no train service to London for the 10 days over Christmas. This is a bit of a bummer but hopefully this will reduce the weekend closures.

I know folk here get frustrated at what appears to be a slow uptake of new routes and airlines out of Southend but their midweek departure board is looking much more healthy than it has done over the last couple of years.

[Expressflight]

I don't know exactly why Stobart decided against concluding the deal with Cityjet but SSJ's current landing distance requirement of 1,630m (dry) may have had something to do with it. Another possibility was that maybe they thought they could set up much the same operation on their own. Think Warwick Brady.

[DC3 Dave]

LTNman This was a merger / takeover, nothing to do with fees. City Jet's future involved replacing RJ85's with SSJ's. The SSJ may as well be an A380 or a space shuttle. It can't land at SEN in wet conditions (or couldn't at the time - mods underway now?).

[mik3bravo]

There is no way I'm going to publish on here the rumour mill comments on the Cityjet situation circulating amongst folks close to the matter. I'll stop there.

To get back onto reality for a second, Stobart stated they will deliver 2.5m passengers this calendar year. It's in the annual reports. Where is this at right now?

My point being there seems to be a judgement problem with the leadership team setting unrealistic fantasy numbers without completely considering the blockers to achieving strategy. In other words that strategy is not being robustly challenged and perhaps its high time the shareholders started getting more direct towards Stobart in delivering on planned strategy.

[SWBKCB]

Oh, go on!:E

I thought the CityJet/Stobart thing was more to do with Aer Lingus Regional etc than SEN.

[_Dan]

Oh the icing on the cake for the airport is that there will be no train service to London for the 10 days over Christmas. This is a bit of a bummer but hopefully this will reduce the weekend closures.


This isn't very well advertised at the moment either, I've seen a few already-booked pax confused by it. Perhaps something like a shuttle bus to Southend Central would help somewhat.

[AirportPlanner1]

Doesn't help matters they change things at short notice, I'm on my way to catch a train on my branch of the same line having been prepared until this morning to be driving to Upminster to hop on the C2C. A few weeks back it was the other way round - no trains after they said there would be.

Crossrail or not, the weekend and holiday closures over the last few years (and it is a few years now) on the East Anglia Mainline are unacceptable.

[DC3 Dave]

There's nothing new about the line to Liverpool St being part shut Xmas week. Buses operate from Billericay. Best not to mention the 'T' word, though.

Welcome Dan. Are you one of the Air family?

[Tagron]

SSJ100

The SSJ100 was recertificated earlier this year with a reduced landing distance at Maximum Landing Weight of 1425 metres. The news release does not specify whether this is wet or dry, but neither was this clarified for the previous "brochure" figure of 1630m.

http://atwonline.com/airframes/ssj100-improves-takeoff-performance-short-runways

In reality MLW is not a constraint in normal operations in areas like Europe where there are many alternate airfields. The practical limitation is the Landing Distance Required at full commercial payload plus normal fuel reserves remaining plus a margin acceptable to the operator. This should be well below MLW. MLW is likely only to become an issue when there is a need to carry large quantities of extra fuel for e.g. Tankering for economy reasons, or anticipated prolonged holding due to weather, or possibly due to a late programme shuffle the aircraft is overfuelled for the required sector.

My guess (without detail figures to back it up) is that wet landing distance at SEN is not now an issue though it coukl still be the case at LCY.

In passing I note the expected announcement of SSJ100 steep approach approval for LCY operations has not yet materialised. Is this situation because the City Jet operation a LCY is now so scaled down that the special recertification is no longer so important and City Jet will continue with the RJ85s at LCY well into the future i.e to 2022 ?

[Expressflight]

Tagron

Thanks for that update. I'ts a pity that website requires a subscription to read the full details of the modifications that have been made.

I agree with you that SEN should not normally present a problem to any SSJ that has had the necessary mods incorporated but I calculated that the unmodified aircraft, with normal regulatory reserves, could have been severely payload limited in Wet conditions. The declared LDA at LCY is 1,319m.

[Pain in the R's]

When I think of the dodgy underfunded airlines that have passed through Southend I would have expected Stobart to accept any airline.

[G-AHNL]

Gentlemen
Please do not dismiss my comments below out of hand it is written because of my life in aviation which started at EGMC and led me into a career which I could never had dreamed of when at school the place has a very special place in my heart so here I go.
Having spent the first 15 year of my career in aviation, A time which was much loved by me, there was so much to learn at Southend from the late 1950s working with ACL/CAB/BUAF/BAF, MY INTRODUCTION TO THE INDUSTRY MUST HAVE BEEN ONE OF THE BEST TRAINING GROUNDS IN AVIATION AT THE TIME I LEARNED SO MUCH FROM THE WORLD WIDE OPERATIONS OF AIR CHARTER’S YORKS, TUDORS, SKYMASTER AND LATER THE BRITANNIA & THE CARVAIR WHEN WORKING IN OPERATIONS AND ELSEWARE IN THE COMPANY, I ended my career on retirement with 52 Years under my belt having travelled the world and including spending 10 years in the USA for HLA ,
Now back to the present time please be patient with me as I am just saying this from feelings in my Aviation heart,
I am appalled by the complete negativity of so many of the people who contribute to this forum. It’s as if many contributors feel that if Stobart’s had not taken over the running of the Airport all things would now be OK (But realistically for those of us working in the industry we know this not to be true to me it is like the proverbial head in the sand syndrome) but the truth is that if Stobart’s had not come along the Airfield would have by now been sold and more than likely be a sprawling housing estate, This has happened to a number of Airfields around the world which have closed and SEN was ripe for this end because of its location, but if that had happened there would be nothing for any of you to whinge about, But for the intervention & far sighted ideas of the Stobart group, If you are real aviation enthusiasts and Airport supporters you should thank your lucky stars Stobart’s came along and took the Airport by the throat and dragged it into the 21 century.
All of a sudden, we seem to have an awful lot of so called Aviation financial and operational experts throwing their 10 pennyworth into the SEN pot, if that’s the case I would politely suggest that you should apply to EasyJet or Stobart Air and offer your wealth of aviation expertise to them, I am sure they would take onboard any worthwhile suggestions they think worthy of consideration to improve their already successful airport operations.
For the life of me I cannot understand why there is all the miserable sniping going on between people that are supposed to be interested in the Airports future, I can understand the dissenters from both LTN & STN (shame really as I spent a lot of time at STN when with both ACL & HLA and found it fascinating & interesting airfield but it’s now too big & Luton is another story altogether but let’s not get into that)
Southend has so much going for it now I think the recent diversions from LCY proves the point the money spent on the improvements and extension to the old ramp, taxiways (being re-laid) new apron lighting and application for planning permission to extend the terminal all adds to the attraction of SEN as a compact and efficient airport. If A/C are stacked and held off the Essex coast where is the best place to go SEN of course subject if it’s within the WX and Operational limits of the airframe involved, Again Stobart’s are to be applauded because otherwise you would have nothing to talk or dare I say to moan about. Come on guys lets be happy you have although a small but modern airport to use and enjoy and complement Stobart’s for their imagination foresight & financial clout in bringing our Airport back from the brink.
The new routes are growing slowly but the world was not built in a day. Years ago, on evenings in the flare path club the members would often discuss this very subject of having a station and terminal on the eastern boundary and now thanks to the Airport operator we have but in those days, we never thought it would ever happen in our lifetime under Southend Corporation ownership.
Please don’t shoot me down I just feel that some of us have forgotten just what a sorry state the Airport was in when taken over from Southend Corporation, In that intervening time what massive strides under the management of Stobart’s the Airport has made, Finally I don’t have an axe to grind I just want the airport to succeed but a parting sentiment.
I do wish FAL’S (ACL) York’s ,Tudors & Overseas Aviation’s Argonauts were still there the sounds of RR MERLINS at 0700 in the morning were something to die for, So am I showing my age….??
I am sure you will all remember this when you are flying to the great maintenance hanger in the sky for your last check one & wishing you were back at SEN celebrating its success with a last drink to the Airport’s prosperity.

[01475]

I understand that you feel a great personal attachment to SEN, I don't understand why you felt you needed to make that post, or what you thought it could achieve.

I don't see people being negative about SEN; just people being realistic and pointing out the good (the great customer experience) along with the not so good (public transport problems) and the bad (limiting runway) as part of an objective assessment of its future.

The thing I often seem to find myself posting here is a reminder that we, and our views and musings, are unimportant. We do not affect SEN (or DTV or Powdair or whatever's) future by our opinions. If we all posted wonderful things about SEN it would still be an airport with strengths and weaknesses, and with a probably positive future but that has uncertain aspects.

[Tagron]

G-AHNL

The simple answer is to use the Ignore List. In this way you can eliminate all the posters that you find vexatious.

Those that snipe or sneer, or continually repeat the same mantra year after year, or seem to use the thread as a dumping ground, or appear driven by their spotter allegiancies (Your airport is inferior to mine) - they are all on my Ignore List .

My Ignore List is short but it has taken out at least 35 posts in the last few days alone, which is saying something. No doubt the facility will go into overdrive now. But in this way I can focus on those who bring actual news of events, and the very few more thoughtful commentators.

01475 is correct to point out that all the opinions expressed on this forum will have not the slightest impact in the real aviation world. Aviation professionals will see the dross posts for what they really are and stay away.

You can find the Ignore List facility at User CP: Settings and Options.

[Expressflight]

G-AHNL

You make some good points and I agree that the current situation at SEN is way better than it almost certainly would have been had Stobart not bought the Lease in 2008.

My background is similar to yours as I started my aviation career at SEN after leaving school and remained there for over 20 years. However I became involved with SEN again about 10 years ago working for a third party so have not been limited to an outsider's view regarding more recent events. Great things have been achieved and if, as looks likely, SEN achieves 1.5m pax in 2018 that would have been snatched with both hands just a few years ago. Some people point out that Stobart's pax targets are not being met and that is true but if you look at almost any UK airport's 5 or 10 year plans historically you will find the same thing so Stobart are not alone in their optimism.

However regarding the "complete negativity" of some contributors, whatever their motives. sometimes they are making valid points. Nobody can deny that the lack of any public transport services for travellers on the first wave of SEN departures is a fact and a very regrettable one. Hopefully once the Crossrail works are all completed there will be capacity to provide earlier and later trains but that is some way off. To state that the current situation cannot be helpful to the success of newly launched routes for example is not being negative in my view.

I keep to myself my personal views on some aspects of SEN's operations due to my awareness of some of the problems they face but I look forward to seeing your future contributions to this thread.

[Reversethrustset]

You think it's bad here? These are amateurs, you should pop over to the Southampton thread and read what the experts over there moan about on a daily basis :}

[mik3bravo]

Leave emotions at the door. This is business. Shareholder capital investment is the grease on the wheels. Wish STOB good luck. However, this is a public forum of debate with varying points of views from posters. I hope posters here are not suggesting censorship of views that do not fit a particular narrative. Bottomline, everyone wants the best for SEN, even those who robustly and healthly challenge. Yes, there are some real complex challenges in making SEN a big success story but equally there have been fantastic strives forward with marked progress which have dramatically improved the airport. So, play nice people - healthy debate is so valuable, and always conducted with respect and manners towards one another.

[southside bobby]

mik3bravo..
Actually the most reasoned post to date...

[Jamie2k9]

In passing I note the expected announcement of SSJ100 steep approach approval for LCY operations has not yet materialised. Is this situation because the City Jet operation a LCY is now so scaled down that the special recertification is no longer so important and City Jet will continue with the RJ85s at LCY well into the future i.e to 2022 ?

Late 2018/Early 2019 before it may make an appearance at LCY. Believe the next few deliveries of SSJ have work lined up so no point in certifying yet.

[southender]

A Cityjet SSJ100 turned up at SEN at 19.20 hrs on Friday 27th October according to the Airport's arrival page as WX9071 from Pisa. Planefinder confirmed it as EI-FWB which later departed to Dublin.

I would imagine it brought in passengers so obviously had no problems with the runway. I can't recall what the weather was like that day, but as we seem to miss most of the rain in this corner of the country in all probability the runway was dry.

[canberra97]

You think it's bad here? These are amateurs, you should pop over to the Southampton thread and read what the experts over there moan about on a daily basis :}

'On a daily basis'

I can assure you that for an airport of a similar size the Southend forum is far more lively than the SOU thread with an equal amount of negativism and positivity.

[Mister Blue Sky]

Hear Hear Peter I totally agree with you!:D

[mik3bravo]

Remain clear of clouds, maintain visual (http://www.pprune.org/9730447-post4097.html)

[Bee Rexit]

Possible strike action at SEN.

www.echo-news.co.uk/news/15668060.Workers_at_Southend_Airport_could_strike_over_pay/

[Neile1]

Does anyone have any views on the FBO facility that appears to have been set up. Is it operational, has it been used and how does it differ from what was offered in the past?

[Red Four]

A Stobart Rail video showing this year's airside works being carried out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr881CqN6jE

[canberra97]

That's an excellent video thanks for sharing.

It's a shame that my local airport at Southampton isn't in a position to have extra aprons added as seen in the video.

Southend has come along in such a big way in such a short time and from what I've seen it has great potential going forward and to be honest I'm rather jealous as to what has been achieved at Southend in recent years compared to nothing at SOU.

[virginblue]

Which begs the question - what is wrong with the white car in the bottom left corner so that it did not move a single time during the time lapse :}?

[Planespeaking]

It's mine and I'm still waiting for my 24 hour roadside relay!

[southside bobby]

In lieu of the loss of the Air Livery facilities there,it appears the work that was done on EZY A319`s leaving the fleet is being conducted out of the "Diamond Hangar" at STN.
4 present at STN with one or two at least already repainted into Allegiant livery.
The two ENZ/Jota RJ`s working on charters from STN today.

[wethersfield]

Is wizz this mystery airline? Like Norwegian, don't they also now have a U.K. operation? This is also one that now has access to additional slots at an existing station.

Could todays news basing 4 more aircraft at Luton from June 18 be the rumoured new operator for Southend. If so, I assume, the availability of Monarch slots, has scuppered their plans for Southend.

[Barling Magna]

Yes, I wondered that. One possible scenario might be that Wizz never intended to open a base at SEN but engaged in negotiations with SEN management in order to obtain a better deal at LTN. Just my musings, I have no information at all to support that theory.

[DC3 Dave]

"Hello, is that Southend Airport?"

"Yes, this is London Southend."

"Yes, splendid... This is easyjet speaking. We just wanted to say how disappointed we all are that our Eastern European comrades have decided to pile into our overcrowded base north of London, instead of taking advantage of all that space you've created at the seaside at the cost of...... just how many millions did you spend on those rather nice stands - perfect for A320's?"

"Too bloody much. Now they're going to sit there empty for God knows how long. It's not funny, we're running out of assets we can sell to support the group's dividend."

"Now now, don't fret. Your orange friend may have a solution. Of course, it will be a huge risk for us to base a couple extra aircraft with you, but if you......"

"Zero landing fees?"

"Now you're talking our language. Just think of the extra revenue in the terminal and that nice new car park, you know - the one that's not currently needed!"

"It's a deal. December announcement?"

"Least we can do for you. By the way, we have been most impressed by your efforts on the SEN-DUB route. If our new man decided it's now or never for us with regard to the Repubic of Ireland, you would be willing to stand aside, wouldn't you?"

[mik3bravo]

You're seeking the Jerry Maguire moment, right there.

As regards your humourous SEN-DUB overtures, that will result in an open bloody battle between FR and EZY, and we all know EZY got a bloody nose the last time they got above their station pulling that stunt. O'Leary will put the dagger right in and twist it hard.

[DC3 Dave]

But has there ever been a better moment? No you're right..... I'll finish my Guinness and go to bed.

[LTNman]

Yes, I wondered that. One possible scenario might be that Wizz never intended to open a base at SEN but engaged in negotiations with SEN management in order to obtain a better deal at LTN. Just my musings, I have no information at all to support that theory.

Might even have been the case that they never even entered into any negotiations at Southend and that the rumour had no real substance.

"Yes, splendid... This is easyjet speaking. We just wanted to say how disappointed we all are that our Eastern European comrades have decided to pile into our overcrowded base north of London, instead of taking advantage of all that space you've created at the seaside at the cost of...... just how many millions did you spend on those rather nice stands - perfect for A320's?"

"Too bloody much. Now they're going to sit there empty for God knows how long. It's not funny, we're running out of assets we can sell to support the group's dividend."

I think Southend's new stands are a wise move. Better to put the capacity in before it is needed than to wait until it is too late.

[compton3bravo]

Did anybody actually believe Wizz would operate from Southend, I know I didn't. Not that interested about Gatwick either where some slots would probably be available.

[AirportPlanner1]

I did, but I could only see it being something like a few times a week to sonewhere like Gdansk or Poznan to supplement LTN, or maybe a new route to somewhere unknown that couldn't be accommodated at LTN. The former could still happen I guess, but I wouldn't put any money on it. I didn't believe a serious base would be set up though. Also the fact Stobart have had Budapest on sale for some time for next year suggests that is at least one core Wizz route that was never under consideration.

[LTNman]

Got to admit that I was sceptical about Wizz and Southend but then I didn’t see easyJet setting up a base at Southend either so I know nothing.

[DC3 Dave]

Unless some established regular posters have been telling porkies - and I don't believe that for one second - Wizz representatives came to the airport. But as I've said before, why wouldn't they? Considering alternatives, developing contacts, understanding each other's needs is pretty routine stuff. All this going to lead anywhere one day? Doesn't look like it, but you never know!

[LTNman]

At least they probably got a free lunch and a nice day out.

[Expressflight]

For the sake of clarity Wizz was definitely not the new operator that SEN expected to be able to announce a couple of weeks ago.

[cumbrianboy]

I find this thread increasingly hard to read.

SEN complains when LTN or STN get new traffic and claim the mangement of SEN, or Stobart are incompetent, and seem to think it is perfectly reasonable to pass judgement on matters that are clearly not understood.

The fact is, SEN loses business to it's bigger competitors like LTN and STN. But, LTN and STN take second place to LHR and LGW. And then LHR and LGW will get ruffled when AMS and FRA take major business ... or Dubai or Doha etc. And so it goes on.

At the other end of the scale, I bet Norwich and Bournemouth raised an eyebrow when SEN got easyJet and so it goes on, and Lydd would probably love to be in the place of Norwich etc etc etc

The fact is, this is a highly complex and competitive businesses, and the level of negativity and naivety is wearing at times ... Business decisions are not taken based on whether the airport has a shiny new terminal and oodles of capacity, if it was then LTN would have been kicked into the long grass years ago, it's about markets and demand.

Personally I think SEN is doing rather well and is developing and will continue to do so. I have no idea who the mystery airline is, but sooner or later a new carrier will come in in a big way and that will be the next quantum leap,

In the meantime, it would be great to see less doom and gloom on here - after all, you never actually know who is reading it and where this negativity could end up

[DC3 Dave]

Greater Anglia work is set to continue well into next year | Echo (http://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/15674207.Rail_lines_work_is_set_to_continue_well_into_next_y ear/)

This doesn't help the airport one iota. What pees me off is that back in the good old days this work would have been done over a much longer period between the time of the last train and the first (Not for nothing is this period called 'Engineering Hours'). But that costs too much - hence the bs talk of upgrades to justify not allowing TOC's to do what they are supposed to do. Run a bloody train service.

[southside bobby]

cumbrianboy...
Your last line indicates yet again an attempt at censorship on this particular forum.
The guys on here are welcome to post views surely?..(most locals on here appearing to have many years of association with SEN)....even if they do not concur with your own viewpoint.
Expectation here has been raised by Stobart themselves with their regular forecasts & projections for investors...& also by admittedly rather silly statements & views from the Airport MD which are obviously condoned by his employer.

[cumbrianboy]

@Southside bobby

Not at all. The last thing I would advocate would be censorship, what I am advocating is INFORMED discussion.

Debate is at the heart of progress, but the seemingly never ending management bashing is tedious, ill informed and unfounded.

My post above was an attempt to highlight that what some see as the failings of SEN, are in fact the realities of a competitive world.

[DC3 Dave]

SS & Cumbrianboy

You are BOTH absolutely right. London Southend is an amazing story. One day it may earn the right to call itself London Phoenix - it's nicely on the way.

But it's true that there's only one body out there that causes scorn to be poured. The very people who consistently fail to meet their own targets, then up the ante with wild, ridiculous projections such as 10 million pax pa.

Strange as it seems I too think they're doing a good job. But then I know nothing of the city and big business. Using my innocent eyes, it looks as if they're doing excellent work.

[mik3bravo]

Place your bets! (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_airlines_in_Europe)

[mik3bravo]

At risk of being HDQ'd but got to say, the new rail rolling stock will become a significant improvement compared to the present day dated engines and carriages. Timing is everything and due to come into service 2019/20.

Align that to the broader SEN project plan and it's own timings for expansion.

[mik3bravo]

In terms of the recent posts interpretting pragmatic challenging of the SEN missed targets on their scorecard, I think it's right to have balanced views that share people's natural views both negative and positively disposed views are healthy.

SEN and certain individuals at the airport need to recognise the importance of expectation management to their shareholders, by not doing that, uneasiness takes hold amongst investors. If you set targets, you best be sure to hit them. Always good to under promise, and over achieve.

[Pain in the R's]

Seems to me that Southend talk the talk while Stansted and Luton say nothing and just watch the new services arrive. :confused:

[DC3 Dave]

Here's one fan who's willing to go the extra mile for SEN.
Easyjet considers new routes from flourishing airport | Echo (http://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/15675054.Easyjet_considers_new_routes_from_flourishing_airpo rt/?ref=mr&lp=2)

[Barling Magna]

It's a long way to Grenada.............. All that way and never saw the Alhambra!

[Expressflight]

The easyJet Autumn 2018 schedules are on sale today.

At first glance these show that all SEN routes maintain their peak summer frequencies. Four based aircraft seem to be required for the 66 weekly rotations but there is considerable scope for additional routes if all four are to be fully utilised.

[cumbrianboy]

I can assure you that STN and LTN will not be sitting back and doing nothing, watching new routes roll in. They will be working very hard to achieve that, just as SEN is.

However, I feel I need to make a few points. Firstly, STN and LTN do not necessarily compete with each other, or even SEN. They compete with EVERY airport in Europe. The Wizz decision will not have been between SEN and LTN, we have already had that confirmed, it will have been do we base 4 aircraft in LTN, or France, or Germany, or the Netherlands or wherever. Airlines, especially pan european ones, are not loyal to any particular market, they are loyal to their aircraft assets and expect each one to generate a given return and they can achieve that anywhere.

I know SEN will be working very hard to attract new airlines, and offering all sorts of deals and incentives, and it is a cut throat, difficult and ruthless businesses.

Liken it to making money. If you are a high net worth individual, say worth around £25m, it is, relatively, easier to make another million and increase ones worth to £26m. You still have to work hard, but it will come easier to someone worth £25m already than it will to someone who is worth £1m who will have to work that much harder.

That said, when you make the second million, the 3rd comes a little easier and 4th a little easier still.

The same is true with airports - it's all about critical mass and it takes time and an awful lot of false starts and disappointments to get there - but eventually you do.

SEN, along with other airports of its size, work bloody hard to grow, and remember what I said above, it's not about competiing with LTN or STN, its about competing with every airport in europe that wants those 2 based aircraft etc, and so of course, SEN are going to lose many more battles than they win.

So for SEN, they will have many more false starts, but eventually they will get to 2 million passengers, and when they do, getting to 3 million will be easier and then 4 and 5 will follow etc. Naturally, capacity and physical constraints will play a part but I hope you see my point.

Now, as for my views on here, I am not trying to censor anyone, far from it. It is fair and right to be disappointed when services go elsewhere, but what does get my goat is the constant bashing that goes on of the airport for being 'incompetent' and that is my point. It is not incompetence, it is reality.

[flight_mode]

the constant bashing that goes on of the airport for being 'incompetent' and that is my point. It is not incompetence, it is reality. The reality is they have set themselves up to earn this badge. I won’t forget all the hyperbole and grandstanding over SEN being the only answer to London’s impending capacity crisis, the ‘build it and they’ll come’ arrogance of past management or those frankly naïve 10 million PAX estimates. The airport has persistently failed to meet it’s own expectations and so ‘incompetent’ is a harsh, but credible descriptor.

[southside bobby]

cumbrianboy`s "management style" discussions are interesting as they contain in reality a summation which could just as effectively be written as...... "the management" are playing in a big boys world.

[mik3bravo]

Precisely! Investor interest is a potential flight risk (pardon the pun). I said it before and I'll say it again - when you are forecasting business plans, you better be sure those plans stand up to investor scrutiny and expectations. It is always best to under state, and over achieve. Avoiding the opposite is imperative.

More realistically achieveable targets may be prudent.

[DC3 Dave]

Place your bets! (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_airlines_in_Europe)

I wouldn't want to be accused of vueling rumours.

[DC3 Dave]

cumbrianboy`s "management style" discussions are interesting as they contain in reality a summation which could just as effectively be written as...... "the management" are playing in a big boys world.

Perhaps the aviation side have the support of a benevolent uncle. The same man who could have taken a very dim view of Stobart's Flybe franchise starting a SEN-DUB service when that airline could in large part be considered a de facto member of IAG.

I wonder if in balance it was decided that BACF could shrug off the competition, where as Cityjet's presence at LCY may be weakened further.

[01475]

I wouldn't want to be accused of vueling rumours.

Naughty naughty! :=

Don't make that same mistake iagan?

[VickersVicount]

Is SEN-GLA normally scheduled on a EMB195 BE for Stobart? Saw one operate route today.

[tws123]

Yes it is VickersVicount.

[Expressflight]

The CAA September stats for SEN have eventually appeared showing 109,999 pax for the month, an increase of 35% on last year.

[DC3 Dave]

Interesting figures. Solid by easyjet with CDG continuing with decent numbers when for so long it looked favourite for the axe. Hard to really judge Stobart/Flybe -other than the established ATR routes - except you can spot the shockers. Still find it hard to believe less than a thousand for Venice, would have expected to see that route performing well.

[Expressflight]

I don't think the VCE schedule of only a Thursday afternoon and Sunday morning flight was very attractive to the weekender market. Apparently it was not thought worthwhile offering something different for 2018. The CGN route still disappoints but I think there may be signs of an improvement recently. Otherwise the new Flybe/Stobart route figures don't look too bad.

[Barling Magna]

Whilst Venice is disappointing Milan looks good, and Rennes continues to surprise me.

[tws123]

Another good Dublin route review from a London bound perspective -
https://www.buzz.ie/travel/stobart-air-offer-easy-new-route-london-263556