Aer Lingus - 5
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MOL recognises that there are huge opportunities for interline traffic Goes against what he's DONE for the last decade, and also everything he's said on the matter in the same period.
Quote:
How on earth can a 2nd terminal cost €1 Billion when a terminal in Hahn by Ryanair Costed only €50m for the exact same passenger numbers
Because it's a crap tin shed. It's the opposite extreme.
Skipness one Echo I have read what your responses were; just to clarify.
Firstly, I realise that Hahn is a 'Crap Tin Shed', but that does not mean that €1billion is necessary to ensure we dont have a crap tin shed at Dublin. If we needed all this extra capacity could we not have build a Loco terminal at these prices and use the existing terminal for legacy carriers and Aer Lingus? This topic has been well debated in many circles. T2 is way too expensive, especially in the current climate. I am sure that a similar standard of terminal could be developed for alot less money.
As regards your comment that interlining goes against everything that MOL has said on the last decade on that matter. Yes we all know that MOL has been very clear on what the model is about and Interlining is not part of that, but MOL has said on a number of occassions that he knows that there is a market for premium traffic, he has also said that there is a market there that is not up for grabs ie interlining and feeder traffic, and my point is that Aer Lingus would be exactly that.
Thanks for your feedback. Ei-Bud
Quote:
How on earth can a 2nd terminal cost €1 Billion when a terminal in Hahn by Ryanair Costed only €50m for the exact same passenger numbers
Because it's a crap tin shed. It's the opposite extreme.
Skipness one Echo I have read what your responses were; just to clarify.
Firstly, I realise that Hahn is a 'Crap Tin Shed', but that does not mean that €1billion is necessary to ensure we dont have a crap tin shed at Dublin. If we needed all this extra capacity could we not have build a Loco terminal at these prices and use the existing terminal for legacy carriers and Aer Lingus? This topic has been well debated in many circles. T2 is way too expensive, especially in the current climate. I am sure that a similar standard of terminal could be developed for alot less money.
As regards your comment that interlining goes against everything that MOL has said on the last decade on that matter. Yes we all know that MOL has been very clear on what the model is about and Interlining is not part of that, but MOL has said on a number of occassions that he knows that there is a market for premium traffic, he has also said that there is a market there that is not up for grabs ie interlining and feeder traffic, and my point is that Aer Lingus would be exactly that.
Thanks for your feedback. Ei-Bud
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Personally, I think we(the Irish) should take a gamble. Aer Lingus is a great little company with some very serious brand strengths. Ryanair similarly is a very competent and impressive business. I think one would complement the other. One could learn from the other.
What with MOL's discussion of transatlantic openings and Aer Lingus's position already in the market it could be an opportunity to have Ireland as a gateway to Europe from U.S.A. and Canada. Europe's airways are crowded enough and with our security set up in Shannon, soon to be Dublin we could have a huge advantage over the rest of Europe. Especially with any aircraft going cheap with effects of the recession it's the time to set up for the next boom...... Let's be prudent and take advantage.
What with MOL's discussion of transatlantic openings and Aer Lingus's position already in the market it could be an opportunity to have Ireland as a gateway to Europe from U.S.A. and Canada. Europe's airways are crowded enough and with our security set up in Shannon, soon to be Dublin we could have a huge advantage over the rest of Europe. Especially with any aircraft going cheap with effects of the recession it's the time to set up for the next boom...... Let's be prudent and take advantage.
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dublin_eire
you are completely right. the opportunities for developing Dublin are immense as a crossroads to The US from all over Europe. The right cost base would mean Aer Lingus would be competitive and also an ability to sell Dublin as an ideal connect point with US immigration clearance, the benefits would be immense.
In addition, it would (if sold properly and developed sensibly) be a great opportunity to develop new links to a range of cities like ones in Asia etc.
I was flying from Tenerife to Dublin recently and many of the passengers were connecting in Dublin to the US (they were staying overnight in Dublin, not ideal) and it makes sense to use Dublin.
This is a complete opportunity where we could be competing with Amsterdam for interline traffic to UK and EU airports. A large proportion of passengers flying to Dubai, surely Dublin could achieve something similar at Dublin?
EI-BUD
you are completely right. the opportunities for developing Dublin are immense as a crossroads to The US from all over Europe. The right cost base would mean Aer Lingus would be competitive and also an ability to sell Dublin as an ideal connect point with US immigration clearance, the benefits would be immense.
In addition, it would (if sold properly and developed sensibly) be a great opportunity to develop new links to a range of cities like ones in Asia etc.
I was flying from Tenerife to Dublin recently and many of the passengers were connecting in Dublin to the US (they were staying overnight in Dublin, not ideal) and it makes sense to use Dublin.
This is a complete opportunity where we could be competing with Amsterdam for interline traffic to UK and EU airports. A large proportion of passengers flying to Dubai, surely Dublin could achieve something similar at Dublin?
EI-BUD
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I've been reading this thread with great interest.
I think I have to agree that AL will be taken over sooner rather than later, or merged, or whatever. I don't think it can survive on its own in the present climate. Mergers and acquisitions of airlines are a daily occurrence now.
What I would like to say (and don't bite please....!!) is that we have a bit of a "Situation" in Ireland. OK, mergers are happening all over the place, but mainly in countries in mainland Europe and the UK. Even so, there is still a semblance of choice for travellers in larger countries. Mainland Europe has a wide choice of transport options - road, rail, plane. The UK has numerous airlines operating short haul and long haul. UK also has le Tunnel. you get the picture.
Here in Ireland, we are on the edge of the Atlantic, the only way out is by plane, (except for 24 hour ferry - fine with the kids in the summer, or for a short booze cruise to Cherbourg, useless for real spontaneous or busines travel).
So picture us in 5 years time (recession notwithstanding), I want to go to Paris for the weekend. I can get a flight with one carrier only. There is NO competition. NONE. Doesn't matter that it is cheap, liveried up with a fabulous bit of marketing, it is still a monopoly. If I don't like it what can I do? MOL always derided monopolies in Aer Rianta (the airport authority), whereas, by taking over AL he will have exactly the same thing!
So economies of scale accepted, and a takeover accepted in time, does anyone agree with me that while I travel FR and AL depending on where I want to go, that in the future I may be stuck with a no frills, take it or leave it product that I don't want. And it may not go where I want either, even if I am prepared to pay extra to get into central Paris rather than the suburbs.
I am fearful of monopolies. That is all I am saying, and an isolated island like ourselves should also fear a monopoly. However reading your posts it looks like MOL's 30% stake has put the kibosh on any other player entering the market to maintain a bit of competition.
Sorry for the long post, but the above is what people are most fearful of, not FR, they are great when you want them, but you have a choice now if you don't.
I think I have to agree that AL will be taken over sooner rather than later, or merged, or whatever. I don't think it can survive on its own in the present climate. Mergers and acquisitions of airlines are a daily occurrence now.
What I would like to say (and don't bite please....!!) is that we have a bit of a "Situation" in Ireland. OK, mergers are happening all over the place, but mainly in countries in mainland Europe and the UK. Even so, there is still a semblance of choice for travellers in larger countries. Mainland Europe has a wide choice of transport options - road, rail, plane. The UK has numerous airlines operating short haul and long haul. UK also has le Tunnel. you get the picture.
Here in Ireland, we are on the edge of the Atlantic, the only way out is by plane, (except for 24 hour ferry - fine with the kids in the summer, or for a short booze cruise to Cherbourg, useless for real spontaneous or busines travel).
So picture us in 5 years time (recession notwithstanding), I want to go to Paris for the weekend. I can get a flight with one carrier only. There is NO competition. NONE. Doesn't matter that it is cheap, liveried up with a fabulous bit of marketing, it is still a monopoly. If I don't like it what can I do? MOL always derided monopolies in Aer Rianta (the airport authority), whereas, by taking over AL he will have exactly the same thing!
So economies of scale accepted, and a takeover accepted in time, does anyone agree with me that while I travel FR and AL depending on where I want to go, that in the future I may be stuck with a no frills, take it or leave it product that I don't want. And it may not go where I want either, even if I am prepared to pay extra to get into central Paris rather than the suburbs.
I am fearful of monopolies. That is all I am saying, and an isolated island like ourselves should also fear a monopoly. However reading your posts it looks like MOL's 30% stake has put the kibosh on any other player entering the market to maintain a bit of competition.
Sorry for the long post, but the above is what people are most fearful of, not FR, they are great when you want them, but you have a choice now if you don't.
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If, by some stroke of skullduggery, O'Leary takes over Aer Lingus, I've heard he will rename the airline to immortalise himself.
Yes, it will be called Cunning Lingus
I'll get me coat ......
Yes, it will be called Cunning Lingus
I'll get me coat ......
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For those of you that fear no competition I have a response; at the moment there is no competition. 70% of Dublin traffic by two airlines. Therefore, it can only get better. In ways we should be immensely proud. Irish business has kept out the best of European competition. Easyjet have no destinations in Ireland and BA have announced they're to dump Dub-Gat. Btw, even where there is competition that does not always go hand-in-hand with cheaper fares. Collusion between BA and Virgin saw an agreement to maintain higher surcharges on their routes which MOL has indicated will be scrapped altogether.
So with no competition now what do we do? Develop Ireland generally as a hub. Capacity will increase. Cheap fares will need to be our attraction to the edge of Europe. With those two aspects us natives can only profit too. Not only through cheap fares but also jobs. I think people are missing the point, jobs are the more important aspect, second are fares.
So with no competition now what do we do? Develop Ireland generally as a hub. Capacity will increase. Cheap fares will need to be our attraction to the edge of Europe. With those two aspects us natives can only profit too. Not only through cheap fares but also jobs. I think people are missing the point, jobs are the more important aspect, second are fares.
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Nocti
You question why I think FR is stronger than EI !
Ryanair, with 108 aircraft, continues to grow its route network and fleet and retains a cash reserve exceeding €2 billion. Aer Lingus, by contrast, has reversed its expansion plans into the United States and warns it faces growing losses unless it slash employee costs.
Thinking about the next few years.
EI and FR need each other "fact" this will make an Irish super Airline and will put Ireland well and truly on the world map as fas as aviation goes.
If one of the two Airlines EI or FR dont make it through the storm
then your left with a monopoly anyway, so why not join forces and
form something Ireland can be proud off.
DUB and SNN could become megga HUB'S, with FR bringing pax from all
over Europe to connect to the States, along side EI doing the same for the pax that dont like flying Ryanair, dont forget they each attract their own class of pax and bringing them together in DUB and SNN to fly onto the states would work very well.
Tourisum in Ireland could be opened up to millions more people
that have never even thought about Ireland as a destination.
p.s I recomend the SW coast area of Irleand, "out standing".
Ryanair, with 108 aircraft, continues to grow its route network and fleet and retains a cash reserve exceeding €2 billion. Aer Lingus, by contrast, has reversed its expansion plans into the United States and warns it faces growing losses unless it slash employee costs.
Thinking about the next few years.
EI and FR need each other "fact" this will make an Irish super Airline and will put Ireland well and truly on the world map as fas as aviation goes.
If one of the two Airlines EI or FR dont make it through the storm
then your left with a monopoly anyway, so why not join forces and
form something Ireland can be proud off.
DUB and SNN could become megga HUB'S, with FR bringing pax from all
over Europe to connect to the States, along side EI doing the same for the pax that dont like flying Ryanair, dont forget they each attract their own class of pax and bringing them together in DUB and SNN to fly onto the states would work very well.
Tourisum in Ireland could be opened up to millions more people
that have never even thought about Ireland as a destination.
p.s I recomend the SW coast area of Irleand, "out standing".
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I hope everyone is reading the other threads on this site !
One Airline gone bust YESTERDAY ! (European Aviation Air Charter).
One Airline gone bust TODAY ! (Flightline).
British Airways, Iberia and Qantas all in talks to create the worlds
first GLOBAL Airline.
The world of aviation is changing and at a speed where no Airline
can afford to stand still or ponder there options for to long.
One Airline gone bust YESTERDAY ! (European Aviation Air Charter).
One Airline gone bust TODAY ! (Flightline).
British Airways, Iberia and Qantas all in talks to create the worlds
first GLOBAL Airline.
The world of aviation is changing and at a speed where no Airline
can afford to stand still or ponder there options for to long.
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And don't forget the talent Ireland has in aviation all over the world. Willie Walsh in BA, the head of Qantas is a Tallaght man, Mannion was with Emerates and of course our involvement with London City Airport and Cityjet. Like David McWilliams is always saying we have influential diasporas out there that we can use to our advantage......
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HaHaHaHa.....Ha
Aisle2c
BRILLIANT!
Good related article from Daivd MacWilliams in todays indo.
Why O'Leary would be a fine catch for Aer Lingus - David McWilliams - Independent.ie
BRILLIANT!
Good related article from Daivd MacWilliams in todays indo.
Why O'Leary would be a fine catch for Aer Lingus - David McWilliams - Independent.ie
Last edited by PPRNkof; 3rd Dec 2008 at 12:25.
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I suggest those of you j**king off over oleary read this weeks Phoenix mag article about ryanair. As I can't be bothered rewriting the article, for those of u without access to it, the gist is that in strategic terms oleary is constantly dropping the ball and needs to hand strategy over to the board while he concentrates on operations.
Just some tidbits:
- 75% destruction in shareholder value over last 2 years.
- Flawed expansion plan as load factors and average fares fall.
- massive and continuing fuel hedging f**k ups.
- fr to loose at least €250m in H2.
All ain't well at ryanland, the "genius" has feet of clay.
Oh, and as an fr veteren, the cc are treated worse than dirt and hate the place and the pilots only like it if young and naive. They soon learn though.
Just some tidbits:
- 75% destruction in shareholder value over last 2 years.
- Flawed expansion plan as load factors and average fares fall.
- massive and continuing fuel hedging f**k ups.
- fr to loose at least €250m in H2.
All ain't well at ryanland, the "genius" has feet of clay.
Oh, and as an fr veteren, the cc are treated worse than dirt and hate the place and the pilots only like it if young and naive. They soon learn though.
I am not sure that the Phoenix, which is a satyrical magazine along the lines of Private Eye in the UK, can be quoted as gospel. The Financial Times it is not. I can fully understand that there are lots of people who do not like MOL. But I think attacking Ryanair's financial performance is not convincing many people. The competition issues are the potential show stopper not that MOL is a nasty man or incompetent.
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Phoenix mag !
Is that the same "mag" that head lines on the front cover of this issue
460 best doctors, I must read it, they must know everything thing about FR's finance.
"I will never go to that doctor again"
.
460 best doctors, I must read it, they must know everything thing about FR's finance.
"I will never go to that doctor again"
.
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In fairness - he's not the only one to screw up hedging. The way the price of oil has bounced around it's a damned if you do/don't scenario. Air Canada is down for $100/bbl fuel at the moment!
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Govt considering FR offer?
Well, this is something that's going to put a different complexion on things:
FT.com / Companies / Airlines - Dublin hint at selling Aer Lingus 25% stake
Govt is seriously considering FR offer and will look at its options. (Translation: the state coffers are going south in a big way and we need the cash).
FT.com / Companies / Airlines - Dublin hint at selling Aer Lingus 25% stake
Govt is seriously considering FR offer and will look at its options. (Translation: the state coffers are going south in a big way and we need the cash).
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...What's to say your 'free flight' to Malaga in two years times dosen't come with a 30 euro credit card charge, a 40 euro check in charge, taxes and charges with three digits. I know I exaggerate slightly......
I also would give him less than a month before he sells the Heathrow slots.
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Desertdiner, you strike me as a drama queen.....
Unless MOL stays competitive, what's to stop other operators starting out of Dublin or indeed people choosing to go to Belfast to fly from there?
I think you need to get a little bit of perspective!
Unless MOL stays competitive, what's to stop other operators starting out of Dublin or indeed people choosing to go to Belfast to fly from there?
I think you need to get a little bit of perspective!
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Reading some of the comments about MOL and Ryanair and his 'blunders', you would almost for a minute forget that there was a seriously bad financial climate at the moment.
What a lot of old cobblers reported in Phoenix magazine.
To criticise his hedging decisions is not exactly fair, you would need a crystal ball to see what the price was going to be like. He hasnt always gotten this wrong and as we know the Fuel market is very much so volatile so hard to know when to hedge.
As regards a sharp decrease in Shareholder value this is systematic at the moment.
MOL is still flying high and Ryanair is probably more well placed in this downturn than any others, despite a sharp decline in profits. For those on here who anticipate his demise dont hold your breaths.
I would be the first to say that Ryanair needs a focus on making the brand more wanted , rather than only based on price. Ryanair could be more customer friendly. But MOL will be around for the long haul, no pun intended!!
Dublin_Eire, re your comments about Irish personalities in Aviation, isn't it Alan Joyce that is head of Jetstar at the moment? Jetstar is the best performing division of Qantas!!! We have alot to be proud of!
On a different note, dont mean to pick but you said :
You would of course have meant to say in the Republic of Ireland!!! 
EI-BUD
What a lot of old cobblers reported in Phoenix magazine.
To criticise his hedging decisions is not exactly fair, you would need a crystal ball to see what the price was going to be like. He hasnt always gotten this wrong and as we know the Fuel market is very much so volatile so hard to know when to hedge.
As regards a sharp decrease in Shareholder value this is systematic at the moment.
MOL is still flying high and Ryanair is probably more well placed in this downturn than any others, despite a sharp decline in profits. For those on here who anticipate his demise dont hold your breaths.
I would be the first to say that Ryanair needs a focus on making the brand more wanted , rather than only based on price. Ryanair could be more customer friendly. But MOL will be around for the long haul, no pun intended!!
Dublin_Eire, re your comments about Irish personalities in Aviation, isn't it Alan Joyce that is head of Jetstar at the moment? Jetstar is the best performing division of Qantas!!! We have alot to be proud of!
On a different note, dont mean to pick but you said :
Easyjet have no destinations in Ireland
EI-BUD
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The Phoenix magazine is a fraction satire, the rest, including it's financial analysis is serious. It is also rather accurate in general on business matters.
You may dispute the article, but rational analysis of it, rather than thinking in highly charged emotive terms as most people here do, may surprise you.
Remember the investment community care little for how many "shiny" jets are giving an audience to the spotters, and they care little about micks personal vendetta against all things green, unionised or European.
To cut to the chase, with 30+ aircraft arriving next year as fares and load factors fall, how do you think they will be profitably filled? p.s. the recession will be much longer and harder biting than you think.
You may dispute the article, but rational analysis of it, rather than thinking in highly charged emotive terms as most people here do, may surprise you.
Remember the investment community care little for how many "shiny" jets are giving an audience to the spotters, and they care little about micks personal vendetta against all things green, unionised or European.
To cut to the chase, with 30+ aircraft arriving next year as fares and load factors fall, how do you think they will be profitably filled? p.s. the recession will be much longer and harder biting than you think.
We are all experiencing the recession and I agree that things will probably get worse before they get better. I do not work for Ryanair and probably stand to lose rather than gain from their growth.
Nobody is disputing that they are tough on staff particularly the junior ones, airports particularly the little ones, and at times their own passengers.
I can also fully understand that a lot of people in Aer Lingus are less than thrilled about developments.
Fact is that jet fuel has reduced very significantly in price over the last quarter. Ryanair will certainly benefit from this in their final quarter, if the price remains as it is. In fact a back of a fag packet calculation suggests the difference would nearly pay for the outstanding shares in Aer Lingus.
If fuel prices increase again, I think their argument that they will benefit as an efficient producer is credible. In the worst case the NGs are the easiest aircraft to offload and nobody disputes Ryanair got a good deal.
We do not have a crystal ball. But as an observer I am unconvinced by the argument that Ryanair is in big trouble. Compared to the Air Berlin financial situation their finances are a dream. Easyjet are having a very public disagreement at board level. Everyone is talking about mergers.
I think the big question is whether the EU and of course the Irish government will allow this. Given precedents in other sectors who can tell?
Nobody is disputing that they are tough on staff particularly the junior ones, airports particularly the little ones, and at times their own passengers.
I can also fully understand that a lot of people in Aer Lingus are less than thrilled about developments.
Fact is that jet fuel has reduced very significantly in price over the last quarter. Ryanair will certainly benefit from this in their final quarter, if the price remains as it is. In fact a back of a fag packet calculation suggests the difference would nearly pay for the outstanding shares in Aer Lingus.
If fuel prices increase again, I think their argument that they will benefit as an efficient producer is credible. In the worst case the NGs are the easiest aircraft to offload and nobody disputes Ryanair got a good deal.
We do not have a crystal ball. But as an observer I am unconvinced by the argument that Ryanair is in big trouble. Compared to the Air Berlin financial situation their finances are a dream. Easyjet are having a very public disagreement at board level. Everyone is talking about mergers.
I think the big question is whether the EU and of course the Irish government will allow this. Given precedents in other sectors who can tell?