Aer Lingus - 5

[EI-BUD]

Holding back the cash until after the flight is similar to what a credit card provider would do as well.

Cyrano- How do the credit card providers know when the flights have been taken?
Seems strange, I would have thought like any other business that once the customer pays online the airlines gets the funds in the next 48 hrs approximately, depending on who they bank with.

EI-BUD

[commander208]

Ord - Dub

Anyone know if EI are running a schedule from ORD to DUB in July 2011? Am looking at various routings for friends visiting Scotland from Indiana and can't find anything on the EI website that goes past March 2011.

Any information would be greatly appreciated.

[Jamie2k9]

There Daily flights between DUB - ORD

Depart DUB 12:50
Arrive ORD 15:10

Depart ORD 18:15
Arrive DUB 07:50

Flights are on sale for Summer 2011 until 25 July 2011. There is no flights after this as you can only book 330 days in advance as over the next few days you will be able to book after July 25. All on booking system

[commander208]

Hi Jamie2k9

Thanks for your reply. When I said I couldn't get anything to show on the EI website beyond March 2011 that was inserting ORD to EDI and return. As indicated in your response putting in ORD to DUB return does indeed generate flights on the dates I need so I can only assume that the problem lies in the DUB-EDI legs. Is there something I've missed or have they simply not got that particular leg in place yet? Also, given that the DUB-ORD flight departs at 1250 I would need to get the visitors from EDI to DUB in time for a connection. Any ideas if that would be possible either with EI or an alternative carrier?

Thanks for any help you can provide.

[EISNN]

@commander 208

I think the reason that you can't get any Dublin Edinburgh flights yet is that some of the flights are operated by Aer Arann on behalf of Aer Lingus in the guise of Aer Lingus Regional. Aer Arann most likely haven't planned that far ahead. Aer Lingus I guess have to wait for Aer Arann to make a decision. Not to mention that Aer Arann are in 'examinership' at the moment and so many of their future plans are possibly on ice at the moment until they are restructured.

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by EI-BUD

Cyrano- How do the credit card providers know when the flights have been taken?
Seems strange, I would have thought like any other business that once the customer pays online the airlines gets the funds in the next 48 hrs approximately, depending on who they bank with.

EI-BUD

Fair question. The big difference between airlines and most other businesses is that the consumer pays something but doesn't get what he/she has paid for several days, weeks, or even months, unlike a CD or a new suit or a restaurant meal. Here's what I recall from my exposure to this area. It isn't as much of an issue if you are a big established network carrier with no real chance of failure, but if you are a newer or smaller and less proven/robust carrier, then you can expect major cashflow implications. Basically, the credit card company (or more precisely the "acquirer") doesn't hold back individual amounts ("Mr BUD is not travelling until September 1 so we won't transfer the funds until then"); rather, they look at what their aggregate liability would be if the airline folded ("days sales outstanding" if you like).

Imagine an airline sells an average of €1m of tickets every day. These are for flights ranging from tomorrow through to some months hence. It's pretty easy for the airline to look at a forward-booking profile from their reservation/revenue-management system to see what the total not-yet-flown booked revenue is. Imagine it's €30m on average. That might be an average of €2m per day for the next few days, declining all the way out to only a few thousand per day a few months from now. But if they sell an average of €1m of tickets a day, €30m is 30 days of sales.

The credit card acquirer wants to keep enough cash back to ensure that it won't be out of pocket from refunds if the airline goes bankrupt, so it sets (in this case) 30 (or maybe 33, for leeway) days as the holdback period. In other words, the revenue from all the tickets sold today won't be transferred to the airline's account until 30 days from now. And that means that even if the airline is running a promotion and has doubled its sales for a few days, it won't see the direct cash effect of that for (in this example) 30 days.

Of course there's more complexity to this. The airline and the acquirer will typically negotiate changes to the withholding period ("we've increased daily sales by 20% over the last month, so you're holding back too much - you need to reduce the period"). But that's the general idea.

I would expect (but I don't know) that this simplified aggregated holdback is the sort that's being applied in the EI/RE deal, rather than the micro-level "OK, flight 3250 today had revenue of €x,000, so transfer that over to them now" approach that the press article seems to imply.

Hope that helps.

C.

[akerosid]

Apparently Skyliner is reporting some significant imminent fleet activity at EI:

- 7 Embraer 195s to be acquired.
- 4 older 320s to leave before the new A320s arrive next year; going to Amsterdam Airlines.
- 1 A330 to leave the fleet without replacement.

Looked for this on Skyliners website, but saw nothing; has anyone got the magazine.

Anyone heard more?

[Jamie2k9]

1 A330 to leave the fleet without replacement.

Aer Lingus have 2 new A330 on order and they are due around 2012 or 2013.

[Eirjet]

I'm pretty sure they are replacing their A321's with A320's and converting their previous A320 orders to A319's.
E195's I doubt they'll be going for them.

[dublindispatch]

Unless for the EI communter service and ditch the RE contract

[fivejuliet]

Skyliner is a generally reliable source so will be interesting. I wonder can the regional brand ONLY be operated by Aer Arann? I did always think though the E195 would be ideal for many many services.

[Tom the Tenor]

Well, if the ERJ 195 can do everything the 737-500 was capable of for EI the Embraer may indeed be an ideal frame. A little less fuel burn too would be a welcome bonus.

[dublinaviator]

Aer Lingus have been replacing their A321s for years, I'll believe it when I see it...

[Jamie2k9]

The Airbus 321's will be in the EI fleet until November 2011 at least. From the EI booking system on a number of routes. It would be stupid if they replaced them. They are needed to operate routes to AGP, FAO, ACE, IBZ etc. It would cost less to put a A321 on the route instead of increasing the number of flights with an A320.

[Kavs8]

Aer Lingus have been replacing their A321s for years, I'll believe it when I see it...

100% Agree there. Would be sad to see them leave, but i suppose they are 13+ years old...

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by Jamie2k9

The Airbus 321's will be in the EI fleet until November 2011 at least. From the EI booking system on a number of routes. It would be stupid if they replaced them. They are needed to operate routes to AGP, FAO, ACE, IBZ etc. It would cost less to put a A321 on the route instead of increasing the number of flights with an A320.

You're saying that just because something appears in an airline's booking system as a given aircraft type until Nov 2011, there's no chance that anything will change? God bless your innocence!

It may well be that there's a case for keeping A321s for busier sunshine routes. There could equally well be a case for getting rid of them if the extra seats they provide aren't generating enough extra revenue - managing to sell another couple of dozen seats in an aircraft 30 seats larger doesn't necessarily mean you're increasing your profit if the average fare is lower, and being able to fill the aircraft at peak times is not much good if you have to deal with higher operating costs all year round. So, with respect, I don't think you can rush to condemn their possible replacement as "stupid" without understanding the cost and revenue elements of their operation.

[EI-BUD]

Airbus A321s

With the Heathrow slots in demand now with 4 Aer Lingus routes, and with bmi cutting frequency on Dublin/Heathrow earlier this year to 4 a day, there is a strong case for maintaining the larger aircraft.

I certainly think that there is a place for A321 in the future firstly for London but also in the summer on the sun routes.

EI-BUD

[ryan2000]

Makes no sense to downsize on DUB LHR and ORK LHR given the slot restrictions. I think it's more to do with maintaining schedules. If a LHR 320 gets delayed they simply commander an aircraft from another route and it's tough luck on the passengers. Not so simple when the LHR flight has a 321 load booked.

[Alt Crz Green]

The A321's are 12 years old. The 4 eldest A320's are 9/10 years old and the rest are from 2004 on. So maintenance costs are much higher and tech delays far more common.
The A321 burns about 15% more fuel than the A320 so if the A320 is full, you need 200 on the A321 to start justifying the extra fuel burn alone. It's a common day to fill 174 seats but a whole lot rarer to fill 200 plus, and that's in the summer. In the winter, it just doesn't happen.
If it's more profitable to fly 174 pax in a 320 than 199 in a 321, then bye bye 321. Simple as that.

[EI Premier]

The A321's are 12 years old. The 4 eldest A320's are 9/10 years old and the rest are from 2004 on. So maintenance costs are much higher and tech delays far more common.
The A321 burns about 15% more fuel than the A320 so if the A320 is full, you need 200 on the A321 to start justifying the extra fuel burn alone. It's a common day to fill 174 seats but a whole lot rarer to fill 200 plus, and that's in the summer. In the winter, it just doesn't happen.
If it's more profitable to fly 174 pax in a 320 than 199 in a 321, then bye bye 321. Simple as that.

You make some very interesting points - but I wonder is the situation as clear cut as that? From personal experience, I have been on several 100% full EI A321 flights this year and in the past, I've never experienced them being anything but at least relatively full.

It may be more profitable on specific routes to fly 174 pax in an A320, but there are other considerations to be made - Ancillary Revenue, etc - all incremental to the main fare.

For EI to dispose of all of the A321s and not to replace them with identical units or similar capacity variants, they would have to be certain that on a year round basis that the lost revenue, contribution, ancillary revenue and passenger number potential from consolidating to an explicitly A320 short haul fleet would be outweighed by consistent profitability generated from operating only the A320.

The A321 has proven to be very useful in cases of Irr-Ops, for example during the Volcanic Ash crisis etc. There is a demand for it on certain routes on the EI network - for example Malaga during the summer (even with an A330 operating the morning flight) along with AMS, BRU etc.

If the units are being replaced like for like, for example when the four A320s arrive during 2011, then EI will be left reduced capacity potential on several routes - unless they add frequencies which would be erroneous and highly unlikely considering the net capacity difference would not warrant this. This may also not be possible if fleet utilisation is already near the maximum.

EI Premier