An excellent example of “Persistence in the Face of Reality”.

Yes, and no; the devil isn't even in the details, it is in the political will to take action without offending the privileged position that the other PMs of the UNSC hold. However, this war of naked aggression by Russia breached treaties that they entered into twice in December 1991 the Minsk accord and the Alma-Ata protocols, and again on 5 December 1994 "the Budapest Memorandum. Russia had signed treaties to respect Ukrainian sovereignty. They have done the opposite. The west had obligations with the denuclearising of Ukraine, and conveniently sidestepped those by stating that it was more of a memo than a treaty, and wasn't ratified, and the dog ate my homework. What it is is dishonorable, and the west owes Ukraine biggly for that stab in the back. Without our word, what the heck are we?

The USSR breakup was mismanaged by the UN, and the succession of Russia was incorrect at that time and remains so to this date. It has never been approved by the UNGA, it was just let slide to avoid any further hassles at that time. How is that playing out since then? How many wars has Russia started since January 1992 when they assumed the seat of the USSR. The Charter has never been amended to place Russia on the UNSC as a PM, although that is debatable. The problem there is semantics as to whether Russia was the continuing state or not. That is a matter that can be resolved simply by CHAPTER XIV, THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE Art 92-96, and would be binding on all members. There is little doubt that Russia is a recidivist offender in breaching Art 4(1) repeatedly, and is subject to action under Art 6. The problem is that in normal conditions, the UNSC would debate the matter and send the matter to the UNGA for a 2/3rd majority of those that actually cast votes, not all countries, just those that vote for or against the resolution. That would be to evict the offending nation (Art 6), or to suspend them (Art 5).

Ordinarily, at that point everyone involved wrings their hands as to whether that would get pushback from USA or PRC, but it isn't so clear cut. The point is the next step that can be taken avoids the UNSC in the process, and that is to amend the Articles of the UN Charter directly and remove the USSR from the UNSC directly, then do a vote. A reading of the UN Charter indicates that does not require any approval by the UNSC at all, and once the USSR is removed from the UNSC, then the UNSC can run a vote on Art 5 or Art 6 for Russia. There is nothing other than fear of the effect on other members of the UNSC that arise from that, however, there is also no way that the PM of the UNSC can actually stop that if there is a 2/3rds majority in the rest of the UNGA. An amendment of the UN Charter is well overdue, and it certainly should have automatic sanctions on any member who is aggressive to it's neighbors, that is what the damn building was put up to do, and it is the one thing that it has uniformly refused to actually do, which has resulted in no single day of the last 77 years that did not involve murder conducted under the legal fiction of an obscene monstrosity that the UN has become. (actually, the UN did it's job, once, in 1950; by chance in the vote of the UNSC to put UN troops into Korea in response to the naked aggression of a peripheral puppet state to a UNSC PM that had walked away from all dealings with the UN at that time, the USSR).

I would like to see Art 108 applied with some creativity by the 2/3rds of the world states that are affected by the flaws of the UN Charter as it currently stands. Statements that this is dreaming are easy to make, but the rules permit it and all it misses is the will to do so, to make a world that we would actually prefer to live in rather than the one we settle for as our collective lords and masters barely pass the test to be able to provide adult supervision in their own domains.

A better discussion getting to the same conclusions as I have made can be found in the follow on post...


CHAPTER XIV THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE

Article 96
1. The General Assembly or the Security Council may request the International Court of Justice to give an advisory opinion on any legal question.
2. Other organs of the United Nations and specialized agencies, which may at any time be so authorized by the General Assembly, may also request advisory opinions of the Court on legal questions arising within the scope of their activities.

Article 94
1. Each Member of the United Nations undertakes to comply with the decision of the International Court of Justice in any case to which it is a party.
2. If any party to a case fails to perform the obligations incumbent upon it under a judgment rendered by the Court, the other party may have recourse to the Security Council, which may, if it deems necessary, make recommendations or decide upon measures to be taken to give effect to the judgment.

The Article 108 process can also be done quickly, and when a member is threatening other nations with buckets 'o sunshine, it is not unreasonable to run another amendment to remove directly Russia from the UNSC and from PM of the UNSC, and secondarily, to expel or suspend them from the UN until they learn some manners/kulturny.

Now the immediate complaint against this is that Russia would veto any such action under Article 108, and a skim reading of the charter may come to that position, except that, Article 27(3) applies to a UNSC nation in a dispute, and Russia would be required to abstain from any UNSC vote on matters related to their actions.

Article 27 Voting
1. Each member...
2. Decisions of the Security Council...
3. Decisions of the Security Council on all other matters shall be made by an affirmative vote of nine members including the concurring votes of the permanent members; provided that, in decisions under Chapter VI, and under paragraph 3 of Article 52, a party to a dispute shall abstain from voting.


Chapter VI is riveting reading, and even Article 52(3) is but Russia has a major issue in Chapter VI that means that they are obliged to abstain from any obvious wordsmithing of a resolution arising from their wanton aggression with Ukraine, and with pretty much most of NATO, Finland, Sweden and well, everyone who's name isn't Vlad the Inhaler. Note that Article 35(1) appears to have bene routinely overlooked and not exercised, as it circumvents the actions of the UNSC directly, today.... ooops.

It is pretty simple to join dots within Chapter VI and Article 52(3) to force abstention of Russia from the UNSC votes involving Russia.

CHAPTER VI PACIFIC SETTLEMENT OF DISPUTES
Article 33
1. The parties to any dispute, the continuance of which is likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security, shall, first of all, seek a solution by negotiation, enquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, resort to regional agencies or arrangements, or other peaceful means of their own choice.
2. The Security Council shall, when it deems necessary, call upon the parties to settle their dispute by such means.

Article 34
The Security Council may investigate any dispute, or any situation which might lead to international friction or give rise to a dispute, in order to determine whether the continuance of the dispute or situation is likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security.

Article 35
1. Any Member of the United Nations may bring any dispute, or any situation of the nature referred to in Article 34, to the attention of the Security Council or of the General Assembly.
2. A state which is not a Member...
3. The proceedings of the General Assembly in respect of matters brought to its attention under this Article will be subject to the provisions of Articles 11 and 12.

Article 36
1. The Security Council may, at any stage of a dispute of the nature referred to in Article 33 or of a situation of like nature, recommend appropriate procedures or methods of adjustment.
2. The Security Council should take into consideration any procedures for the settlement of the dispute which have already been adopted by the parties.
3. In making recommendations under this Article the Security Council should also take into consideration that legal disputes should as a general rule be referred by the parties to the International Court of Justice in accordance with the provisions of the Statute of the Court.

Article 37
1. Should the parties to a dispute of the nature referred to in Article 33 fail to settle it by the means indicated in that Article, they shall refer it to the Security Council.
2. If the Security Council deems that the continuance of the dispute is in fact likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security, it shall decide whether to take action under Article 36 or to recommend such terms of settlement as it may consider appropriate.

Article 38
Without prejudice to the provisions of Articles 33 to 37, the Security Council may, if all the parties to any dispute so request, make recommendations to the parties with a view to a pacific settlement of the dispute.

Article 52 Regional Arrangements
1. Nothing in the present Charter the existence of regional arrangements or agencies for dealing with such matters relating to the maintenance of international peace and security as are appropriate for regional action, provided that such arrangements or agencies and their activities are consistent with the Purposes and Principles of the United Nations.
2. The Members of the United Nations entering into such arrangements or constituting such agencies shall make every effort to achieve pacific settlement of local disputes through such regional arrangements or by such regional agencies before referring them to the Security Council.
3. The Security Council shall encourage the development of pacific settlement of local disputes through such regional arrangements or by such regional agencies either on the initiative of the states concerned or by reference from the Security Council.


What continues to be frustrating is that many Ukrainian civilians and servicemen are needlessly dying while Fort Fumble (UN) sits on their bloated butt and does nothing other than lament their impotence. The Prime minister of Finland has a bigger pair of balls than all of the windbags that we have sitting in the UN Secretariat Building, at 405 E 42nd St, New York, NY 10017, USA, combined. Russian conscripts that had no idea why they are being sent to die, who have committed atrocities that are in keeping with the murderous history of Russia and Putin are also victims in part, and it is past time for their fragging of their officers. I understand that the Russian officers are indeed worried about that already, apparently requiring conscripts visiting HQ to strip down to show they pose no threat to their lords and masters. What a disgrace that Putin has turned Russia into. Tolstoy would write new text of lament on the tragegy that arises from a cowered population led by a despotic sociopath.

IMHO

LW-50, just PM me with your objections...

All Russian landing ships docked at Novorossiysk have sortied to sea. No public int on their location.

hopefully they are heading back through the Bosporus to their home ports in the Northern and Pacific fleets. Otherwise….

“There are roads which must not be followed, armies which must not be attacked, towns which must not be besieged, positions which must not be contested, commands of the sovereign which must not be obeyed.”

“To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.”

“Be where your enemy is not.”

“The opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.”

“Do not swallow bait offered by the enemy. Do not interfere with an army that is returning home.”

“If his forces are united, separate them.”

Voldemort makes whoever may have been Sun Tzu look pretty doggone priescient. Alternatively, he has been watching reruns of Lt E. BlackAdder going forth, and is still trying to move his drinks cabinet 3 feet closer to Odessa by repeating the same plan for the 37th time, as no one would expect that.

Aviation point: This guy is a 737 pilot.

Edit: not his most recent post - but all are worthy of watching....

Would that not be a breach of the Montreux Convention (albeit one to which the West would probably turn a blind eye under the circumstances) ?

NOPE

That needs ISR on top to determine where they are going. I would think there is zero chance that they are going to turn right at Kerch, they are heading with high probability towards Odessa to try and make a fashion statement. Time to get a lot of intel and harpoony things ready to go and have some reception. Their remaining LCT/LCA are diminished but they are on their way to cause mischief. This is the thing that needs to be stopped in its tracks, and that means there needs to be lots of intel. FORTE11 probably could do with some CAP I would think.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6f6442781c.png


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b18dd8f5fc.png

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e81f5bc1c3.png

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a3b4e65b79.png

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ec213e3bfc.png







https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....93104cf8ca.png


It's 422nm from Novorossiysk to Odessa... that is between 28 and 32hrs at 15kts-13kts around the traps. beaches on the North East side of the city are fairly clear for a landing area, but you gotta go right past downtown to get there, or come around the coast, all of which would be painful on the receiving end, there is no surprise factor at that point. The only surprise that exists is bombardment by the Kilos and all of the other remaining Kalibr-equipped ships, and the remainder of their surface to surface ballistic and cruise missiles. No point doing that too early, so the ISR cover from the assets in the area become pretty darn important at this time. There are some landing beaches to the south of the city, they would seem to make some sense, and would also be in keeping with the mental model that Putin has that he wants to do something to join up Transylnitpikhoovia or whatever it is called today.


They have, what...

• 1 x Gator left?
• 4x Ropucha?
• 1x Ondatra...?
• 10 x Grachonok?

That is what was part of the fleet in the Black Sea,

HOWEVER... nothing has stopped repositioning of a bunch of Sernas down the Don from St Petersburg... a ship of 3.6m draft can run down there, max mast height 144'...

At this point, I would think that the "Speshul Military Operation" is on it's last legs from the Redlands manager's point of view, and he has one good last push to make a difference before having to go and lick his wounds. He does not have an ability to reconstitute his ground forces at any time soon, so he is looking at what other options exist, and one is a surprise case of having moved a flotilla of tubs down the Volga-Don waterway from the northern fleet and the baltic fleet to give sealift for the next bunch of future deceased to be transported.

Within the remaining Black sea fleet, there is limited uplift...
Sernas, 92 troops,
Ropucha: 300 troops & 10 MBTs....

But add the pacific fleet, baltic, and northern fleet vessels and you have enough for a small football stadium. The RU Navy also has a good fleet size of patrol boats that have surface-to-surface missile capability.

All in all, it is a possible point of attack that Redland may undertake within their capabilities. There is no possibility that a movement of that size of shipping would go unmissed by the NRO, so it would be interesting to see what the intel says about where the ships are in the Pac, Nothern, and Baltic fleets at present.

Russia maintains satellite reconnaissance capability still, they haven't been subject to the epidemic of bad wiring so far... so Ukraine would need to be as cunning as a rat with a gold tooth in positioning counter-fire capability that can survive a preparation barrage by surface-to-surface, from land and sea, and air-to-surface missiles.

It won't procrastinate for very long if it is going to happen, it will be in the next 3 days. more or less, the weather seems to be great for all sides, it's a full moon today... tides are negligible... Russian NVG is.... meh.... probably not going to want it too dark.

I'm thinking Arby's... or a landing on the Southside of the City around Tuesday/Wednesday early AM.... and a force larger than the remaining Black Sea uplift, probably enough for around 5,000 troops. Now, where the heck they will get 5K fit non puke your tummy up troops from is unknown, but the Russian navy has some points to make and this would certainly be something for the popcorn and a 6-pack. The naval infantry count around 12K total... on a good day. They have been in action in Mariupol so they already have some recent experience.

Can Ukraine see off a mid-size landing? I'm not a marine... I respect them, but this isn't marines like the USN or UK... It is more akin to Lichensteins marines I would think. There is little chance that they have practiced any combined operations, but they still do have an airforce, kind of, and some boats, floating still, and the troops come from.... more conscripts, or does the RU Navy have really good marines, or is this another showing of the special skills of the Spetsnaz, the ones that got bit at Hostomel.

Gotta go get some popcorn.

PS: no offense to Lichenstein, it's a nice place... has streets and everything.

Tank turrets are only kept on the tank by gravity. The ease at which T72 turrets are blown off is a "design feature" due to the tank having an autoloader for the main gun, with the ammunition kept in a carousel under the floor..

Tanks like the M1 Abrams have their ammunition in separate compartments fitted with blow out panels, so if the compartment suffers a hit the force from the exploding ammo is directed away from the tank.

In the T72, it blows the turret off.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidha...h=4e71b9bd9fc4

Here are the links to the maps the UKR captain is using:

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/inv...ay-80-summary/

https://deepstatemap.live/#9/48.7517/37.0926

I can't see the Reds having anywhere near the 5k marines on their way on any fleet. There just isn't enough capacity even if they would have all the kitchen sinks of mariupol on tow.
Alligators and Ropuchas take ~300 maries each. That's 1500 poor souls on board. They can't have more to Black sea due to draught.

Ondatra takes 22 POB, but it is not for crossing the Black sea. There are estimatdd 15-17 in active service.

Serna is advertised as 92 POB but I'd say that would be a bit crowded. Serna really isn't something you'd want to sit in in high seas. 15 total in active use.

Dyugons (100 marines, 3 shlps at Baltic fleet) could be transferred.

The Ivan Gren class, two built, 300 marines capacity. Theoretically could be transferred but doubtful.

Then there's a handful of smaller boats for teams but I woukd decline participating in a special military operation involving crossing the Black Sea for 30 hours in a rib boat.

All in all, if they really gather everythkng including the looted kitchen sinks they have the capacity for 4000-4500 troops but theyd have nothing left in other fleets (Baltic, Northern, Pacific) except the odd Gators and Ropuchas that don't fit the canal.

Then comes up the question of marines. Russia has roughly 12000 marines including support and logistics. Of which at least a third are conscripts A third is special military operation capable + 800 commandos. Then there are the boat crews plus logistics/support.

However, some of the forces have already been grinded in the war... Furthermore having everyone capable on the boats at this very moment would mean that there are a lot of empty barracks and bases in all other corners of Russia.

to summarize, there is an enormous resource issua with the Russian navy to try and make a meaningful invasion, they just can't do it. Even if everything and everyone would be on scene it would be a great target for a set of Neptunes. Would the reds take that chance? Are they really THAT crazy?

A problem Admiral Beatty might recognize . . .

The limit draft and mast height for a movement via the Volga and Don is much larger than I expected, which means the Northern, Baltic and Pacific fleets have had enough time to relocate smaller surface combatants that would have otherwise been precluded from transit by the Bosphorus. Someone with the NRO will have a good idea of where all of the assets are, but in the last 3 days the Kilos went walkabout or so the unconfirmed story went, and then surface fleet movements occur out of Novo... not a good coincidence.

Can a brother get an amen! I get the concept of don’t fight the last war- insurgency but I don’t think the last war is over yet.

A Muscovite friend on Facebook published a conscription notice he received today. He is 44.

Interesting damage pattern on a downed Russian fighter

https://twitter.com/search?q=Starstr...ed_query&f=top

Ukrainians are pushing russkies cross the border north of Kharkiv. This is awesome.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...essment-may-15

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 15

Russian forces have likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian military command to amalgamate soldiers from many different elements, including private military companies and proxy militias, into ostensibly regular army units and naval infantry…..

The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate stated that Russian forces are conducting covert mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who likely have insufficient training to be effective and little motivation to fight….

Russian private military companies are reportedly forming combined units with airborne elements due to significant losses in manpower. Denaturing elite airborne units with mercenaries is shocking, and would be the clearest indication yet that Russia has exhausted its available combat-ready manpower reserves…..

The Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade is reportedly receiving personnel from other Black Sea Fleet units, including navy ship crew members.

Newly formed or regrouped units are unlikely to be effective in combat….

oh man, that's not going to end well. The discussion earlier regarding the possible landing near Odessa will be a disaster if they are really trying to do it with a combination of forces untrained for the task and untrained to work together against an enemy that has the gear, the motivation and the experience. May as well send the poor sailors to try and fly an alligator. Or a SU-25 pilot piloting a landing craft.

Ukrainian forces destroying the railway bridge between Severodonetsk and Rubizhne to prevent its use by Russian forces to resupply.

careful FDR:ok:

vlad the impaler, vlad the poisoner, vlad the master strategist not, vlad the war criminal won't like being called out for what he is. Your postings surely get read in his failed country and your efforts to exclude his country from the UNSC & UNGA won't go unnoticed.

Wherever you are stay safe and check your undies for novichok and your tea for polonium....

DoT