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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

racedo 3rd Apr 2021 23:55

Is Ukraine about to have a war?
 
There are a lot of soundings at the moment in relation to Eastern Ukraine and the possibility that Kiev Government will look to conduct a major attack on this area.

In 2014 the people in this area disliked the Maidan Sq protests and did one of the own which was attacked by Kiev. As this area is populated by people with more Ethnic ties to Russia than to Western Ukraine, the people got the support of Russia, overtly and covertly after being attacked by Kiev and probably a bit before as well.

Currently a large area is held by people who wish to have little to do with Kiev and seek a breakaway from it. The war of 2014 /15 was bloody and has left a phoney ceasefire since.

Ukrainian forces have been builing up military equipment over the last number of months, Ukrainian men of conscription age have been barred from leaving the country BUT not unsurprisingly it has had zero impact as Poland / Germany have had influx of people seeing to avoid being conscripted. Poland currently has 3 million people who have left since 2014 based on Polish work permit numbers, nobody knows who are there without permits.

Trump election in 2016 brought any hope that Kiev had of starting a war to an end, the ties with Biden and family are well publicised. The change in January has opened up lots of options.

Russia has responded in last 2 weeks in moving sizeable tranches of equipment into Crimea / along border areas with helicopter units being visible in the breakaway region.

Ukrainian President unpopular at home with a less than 20% approval rating needs something, US pressure is coming to bear as well and unspecified promises, shades of Saddam re Kuwait likely being made.

So questions are

Will the Ukrainian comic President seek to start a war ?
What has he been promised ?
Does he think NATO powers will intervene ?
Is he assumming that Turkish / Israeli drones which worked in Nagorno-Karabak will do the same here ?
Will Russian units in Transniestra / Crimea come under attack ?
Does anybody expect Russia to stand by and watch Svoboda / Other neo Nazi groups be allowed do as they please ?

At the moment I see it as a 50-50 chance of a war, lots of posturing but a real danger that Kiev goes for broke. I see next 4 weeks as being key as if nowt by May 1st then maybe it dies down. But as Duke of York found out you can only march men up the hill so many times.

Ukraine however is bankrupt, it has lost 1/3 of its population since 1998 and the advent of Nordstream 2 will reduce its income even further.

Less Hair 4th Apr 2021 07:49

You seriously think Ukraine will invade Russia?

ORAC 4th Apr 2021 08:02

A nice piece of pro-Russian propaganda there. The reported build of forces is by th3 Russians who are massing troops on their border - and have threatened NATO not to respond in kind.

You seems to suggest that all the previous fighting has been done by Ukrainians who resent the Kiev government, whilst most has been done by Russian forces operating inside Ukraine - including the shooting down of flight MH17 in 2014.

Less Hair 4th Apr 2021 08:09

This thing looks really concerning I have to say. Somebody coming for the next bite it seems.

fab777 4th Apr 2021 08:16


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11021973)
A nice piece of pro-Russian propaganda there. The reported build of forces is by th3 Russians who are massing troops on their border - and have threatened NATO not to respond in kind.

You seems to suggest that all the previous fighting has been done by Ukrainians who resent the Kiev government, whilst most has been done by Russian forces operating inside Ukraine - including the shooting down of flight MH17 in 2014.

Indeed. Over the last weeks/months, the OP has shown himself as a fervent supporter of Putin's Russia on this board. War is everywhere, including on the internet.

Asturias56 4th Apr 2021 09:06

Worth noting that Mr Putin is also not as popular as he was

the last time he invaded the Crimea to boost his ratings.

Racedo is unfortunately playing the propaganda card early

racedo 4th Apr 2021 11:32


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11021973)
A nice piece of pro-Russian propaganda there. The reported build of forces is by th3 Russians who are massing troops on their border - and have threatened NATO not to respond in kind.

You seems to suggest that all the previous fighting has been done by Ukrainians who resent the Kiev government, whilst most has been done by Russian forces operating inside Ukraine - including the shooting down of flight MH17 in 2014.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/202.../ukra-m20.html

Kiev has been upping the ante since late January, just after Biden inauguration and has been moving equipment up close to contact areas. MSM has been ignoring it for weeks but it has been happening. Russia in response in the last week has started to move equipment to its borders.

People in Eastern Kiev rose up following Maidan overthrow of president and were then attacked by Kiev forces including neo Nazi paramilitaries.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

racedo 4th Apr 2021 11:55


Originally Posted by Asturias56 (Post 11022006)
Worth noting that Mr Putin is also not as popular as he was

the last time he invaded the Crimea to boost his ratings.

Racedo is unfortunately playing the propaganda card early

Invaded ? Population of Crimea has always been overwhelmingly Russian. They had a vote and every survey since including from Western agencies asking people would they wish to be ruled by Kiev or Moscow comes out with 90% Moscow.

Have people not a right to decide their own destiny ? If Kiev is so sure that people wish to return then why does it not advocate a referendum using electoral rolls form 2014.

As for popularity of Putin !!!! Events in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine were a counter to Maidan square where a US supported (Victoria Nuland and $ 1/2 Billion spent) event overthrew an elected President. The population loss since show many Ukrainians wish no part in it.

racedo 4th Apr 2021 11:56


Originally Posted by Less Hair (Post 11021970)
You seriously think Ukraine will invade Russia?

Did you read the title of the thread ?

Asturias56 4th Apr 2021 13:07

Invaded racedo - just because the population were Russian doesn't give anyone the right to invade another country - unless you're Hitler of course.

If you do think that that is the right way to run affairs please say so - presumably Finland and China can invade bits of Russia based on the same principles?


extralite 4th Apr 2021 13:17

Distraction from Putin's Palace. Check.
Display of Russian nationalism.Russian Strong Ya. Check.

What's not to like for an old school operator.

jolihokistix 4th Apr 2021 14:00

Russia showing China how to do it.

ORAC 4th Apr 2021 14:18

As I was saying....

Of interest is that Russia is massing troops not only on the eastern border, but also to the south in Crimea. Which could signal yet another attempt to seize a land corridor in the south linking not only Crimea and Russia but also Trans-Dniester in Moldova (which is why its interesting Racedo mentions it even though there has been no recent activity there. ). Which will cause substantial concern yet again concerning Odessa, which is the 3rd largest city in Ukraine and its major seaport (Odessa is 68% ethnic Ukrainian, and 25% ethnic Russian)

.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ne/ar-BB1ff51r

Russia warns NATO against deploying troops to Ukraine

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/russ...cow-2021-04-01

Russia warns new Donbass conflict could 'destroy' Ukraine, NATO rebukes Moscow

racedo 4th Apr 2021 14:37


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11022158)
As I was saying....

Of interest is that Russia is massing troops not only on the eastern border, but also to the south in Crimea. Which could signal yet another attempt to seize a land corridor in the south fin king not only Crimea and Russia but also Trans-Dniester in Moldova (which is why its interesting Racedo mentions it even though there has been no recent activity there. ). Which will cause substantial concern yet again concerning Odessa, which is the 3rd largest city in Ukraine and its major seaport (Odessa is 68% ethnic Ukrainian, and 25% ethnic Russian)

.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ne/ar-BB1ff51r

Russia warns NATO against deploying troops to Ukraine

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/russ...cow-2021-04-01

Russia warns new Donbass conflict could 'destroy' Ukraine, NATO rebukes Moscow

Er they already have a corridor across the Kerch Straits with a bridge that takes Road and Rail traffic.

I mention Transniestra because there are Russian military based there.


racedo 4th Apr 2021 14:44


Originally Posted by Asturias56 (Post 11022129)
Invaded racedo - just because the population were Russian doesn't give anyone the right to invade another country - unless you're Hitler of course.

If you do think that that is the right way to run affairs please say so - presumably Finland and China can invade bits of Russia based on the same principles?

So invading and putting your military forces into another country makes a country Nazi................ I presume this is what you were saying.

In 1990's Crimea sought its own independence and had its own parliment but was threatened with War by Kiev if it refused to comply. Therefore if a region within a country seeks independence it should be threatened with full scale war ? Interesting.

I presumed NATO was fully in favour of a region within a country doing this.

ORAC 4th Apr 2021 15:37


Er they already have a corridor across the Kerch Straits with a bridge that takes Road and Rail traffic.

I’m aware of the bridge - and Russia stopping Ukrainian and other shipping going under it in contravention of the right of free passage (The crews just having been freed) - but bridges can be cut, which is why a land bridge is preferable. And of course preferable if you want to link to Moldova and limit Ukrainian access to the sea.

One of the reasons why Crimea is mainly inhabited by ethnic Russians is because of the ethnic cleansing by deportation of the native Crimean Tartars started by Stalin in 1944, continued by the policy of detartarization under Khrushchev in 1956 and continued oppression and suppression under Putin.

The seizure of Crimea, of course, having been condemned by the UN and is unrecognised except for other Russian client states such as Cuba, Syria and Venezuela.

fitliker 4th Apr 2021 15:46

Not really a new war is it . Just the end of the ceasefire as promised by the comedian that got himself elected last year .
Cutting off the water and power during a ceasefire might be considered a war crime in other wars .

Asturias56 4th Apr 2021 16:17

"therefore if a region within a country seeks independence it should be threatened with full scale war ? Interesting."

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a1006f4e13.jpg

wondering 4th Apr 2021 17:35

Truth is the first casualty in war. That holds true for all sides.

Beamr 4th Apr 2021 21:57


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 11022179)
In 1990's Crimea sought its own independence and had its own parliment but was threatened with War by Kiev if it refused to comply. Therefore if a region within a country seeks independence it should be threatened with full scale war ? Interesting.
.

Chechnya. Interesting.

etudiant 4th Apr 2021 22:17


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11022208)
Iím aware of the bridge - and Russia stopping Ukrainian and other shipping going under it in contravention of the right of free passage (The crews just having been freed) - but bridges can be cut, which is why a land bridge is preferable. And of course preferable if you want to link to Moldova and limit Ukrainian access to the sea.

One of the reasons why Crimea is mainly inhabited by ethnic Russians is because of the ethnic cleansing by deportation of the native Crimean Tartars started by Stalin in 1944, continued by the policy of detartarization under Khrushchev in 1956 and continued oppression and suppression under Putin.

The seizure of Crimea, of course, having been condemned by the UN and is unrecognised except for other Russian client states such as Cuba, Syria and Venezuela.

All good wars start with plausible claims on the various sides.
Here we have the Crimea, where Russia spent a lot of blood in the 1850s and the 1940s, reassigned to the Ukraine by Khrushchev, a native Ukrainian, while all were part of the USSR in the 1950s.
Then we have collapse of the USSR and the rise of the CIS, then the Maidan revolt spnsored by Ms Victoria ( F*** the EU) Nuland, at a cost of $5B according to some intercepts of her discussions.
Later the Ukrainian leader Ms. Tymoshenko was recorded stating that she would like to get rid of her Russian minority(30% of the people).and chose to outlaw Russian language teaching in elementary schools.
The Donbass revolt soon followed, plus the popular vote for returning the Crimea to Russia.
So now we have a civil war, in an artificial country ruled by a deeply corrupt elite held hostage to foreign paymasters, with one side supported by another country also ruled by a deeply corrupt elite, albeit with local roots.
A happy playground for the various spooks and influence peddlers, at the expense of the people trying to survive there.
In retrospect, perhaps we should bring back the Hapsburgs, they were a lot less bloody minded and no more incompetent.

Aegis8 5th Apr 2021 06:59

The art of civil discourse is long lost.

One part that is missing here, is that Ukraine has been speaking of and planning their spring offensive on Donbas for several months and have been actively moving their military units into position. Which is in contravention of the Minsk agreements and add to this more belligerent words of retaking Crimea by force. This puts us squarely where we are now, a military response from Russia.

This response is now being used by the west to paint Ukraine as the victim, instead of the instigator.

If Ukraine had delivered on their requirements under the Minsk agreements, we would not have the current situation. Peace would reign in the region and people could get back to living normally.

Deltasierra010 5th Apr 2021 12:08

Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the stand off between Russia and Ukraine, they would be crazy to start a fight they are going to loose. Biden might have family contacts there, getting involved in Russiaís backyard is a really bad idea, Putin might be loosing popularity, defending National interests will put him right back at the top of the polls.

Aegis8 5th Apr 2021 12:27

Came across this, which is the main reason for the sudden movement of Russian forces. The president of Ukraine basically signed a declaration of war when he signed Decree No. 117/2021. It is on the president dot gov dot ua site. Google translate does a fair job.

As for his popularity, starting a war will not heighten his popularity. Russians do not want war, but attack Russia and they will end it for you.

ORAC 5th Apr 2021 13:04

We will see who takes major military action first.

I say major because the situation in Eastern Ukraine is so murky that a casus bellum is far to easy to create and claim.

fitliker 5th Apr 2021 16:25

Nothing murky about using artillery against civilians.
Cutting the water off .
Cutting the power off .
If NATO used those tactics in Afghanistan they would have been home in three months , instead of playing at sitting ducks for almost two decades .

Finningley Boy 5th Apr 2021 19:05


Originally Posted by Aegis8 (Post 11022676)
Came across this, which is the main reason for the sudden movement of Russian forces. The president of Ukraine basically signed a declaration of war when he signed Decree No. 117/2021. It is on the president dot gov dot ua site. Google translate does a fair job.

As for his popularity, starting a war will not heighten his popularity. Russians do not want war, but attack Russia and they will end it for you.

I'm sure I read or heard a couple of days ago that President Biden told the Ukraine that they are not alone.
FB

Gulfstreamaviator 6th Apr 2021 08:40

Rivet en route. drone on site also . Russian also.
see FR feeds.

Asturias56 6th Apr 2021 09:00

I'm impressed that PPrune deemed important enough to suddenly have a number of new pro-Russian posters turn up all of a sudden - I exempt racedo & etdudiant who have been on here for years

Gulfstreamaviator 6th Apr 2021 11:59

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0a4a9944f5.jpg

Gulfstreamaviator 6th Apr 2021 12:01

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....18c491f2d9.jpg

aw ditor 6th Apr 2021 12:47

Casus belli ?

highflyer40 8th Apr 2021 09:48


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 11022090)
Invaded ? Population of Crimea has always been overwhelmingly Russian. They had a vote and every survey since including from Western agencies asking people would they wish to be ruled by Kiev or Moscow comes out with 90% Moscow.

Have people not a right to decide their own destiny ? If Kiev is so sure that people wish to return then why does it not advocate a referendum using electoral rolls form 2014.

As for popularity of Putin !!!! Events in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine were a counter to Maidan square where a US supported (Victoria Nuland and $ 1/2 Billion spent) event overthrew an elected President. The population loss since show many Ukrainians wish no part in it.

Of course they donít. Nobody in any country has the right to say.. we identify with that country, so we are therefore now part of that country instead of this country. They are free to move to the other country. Citizens do not have a right to annex parts of their own country.

I would love to see Russiaís opinion on the matter if those areas of Russia that identify more strongly with China and Mongolia decided one day to just take their land and leave. The tanks would be rolling the very next day.

Aegis8 8th Apr 2021 11:30


Originally Posted by highflyer40 (Post 11024298)
Of course they donít. Nobody in any country has the right to say.. we identify with that country, so we are therefore now part of that country instead of this country. They are free to move to the other country. Citizens do not have a right to annex parts of their own country.

I would love to see Russiaís opinion on the matter if those areas of Russia that identify more strongly with China and Mongolia decided one day to just take their land and leave. The tanks would be rolling the very next day.

Your statement is a bit over simplified and not entirely correct. The right to self determination is enshrined in the UN charter and international law. It guaranties peoples the right to the process of self determination, but it does not guaranty the outcome, ie. full independence.

You will find that the Donbas regions initially wanted autonomy form Kiev, but still to be part of Ukraine. Now with the history of Kiev stalling, not implementing the Minsk agreements and war looming again, they are proclaiming more loudly to become part of Russia. Which will not happen.

This needs to be resolved by Kiev coming to the party and doing what they signed up to do.

dead_pan 8th Apr 2021 14:11


Originally Posted by Gulfstreamaviator (Post 11023171)
Rivet en route. drone on site also . Russian also.
see FR feeds.

Nothing new here. They've both been doing this for years now.

In Europe the only major 'local' nation state threat is Russia, so its wholly unsurprising all our airborne surveillance assets are sent this way.

dead_pan 8th Apr 2021 14:17


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 11022090)
Have people not a right to decide their own destiny ? If Kiev is so sure that people wish to return then why does it not advocate a referendum using electoral rolls form 2014.

Daft comment - that's a recipe for Balkanisation and never-ending conflict if ever I read one.

On the basis of your comments I take it you're in favour of Moldova pivoting west to Europe, given the majority of their population are reportedly supportive?

fitliker 8th Apr 2021 15:14


Originally Posted by aw ditor (Post 11023315)
Casus belli ?

Someone made money selling land previous collectives and Soviets .
Probably the same corrupt people that sold the old Soviet aircraft carrier , and rocket technology to Iran and North Korea .
We all know what happened to the Arms dealer trying to sell the stolen nukes , he was given a nuclear death .
Maybe the Land thieves who sold the old Soviet farms to foreign investors will wage war to avoid court .
Not the first time illegal land sales have been the cause of war . There are stories in the Old Testament about fields being sold off .

Gulfstreamaviator 8th Apr 2021 16:21

FAA warning to American carriers....

etudiant 8th Apr 2021 17:10


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11024492)
Daft comment - that's a recipe for Balkanisation and never-ending conflict if ever I read one.

On the basis of your comments I take it you're in favour of Moldova pivoting west to Europe, given the majority of their population are reportedly supportive?

I'd just note that the Kiev government said explicitly that they wanted to get rid of their Russian speaking minority and passed laws prohibiting Russian language teaching in the majority Russian speaking areas.
Seceding from a government that wants to get rid of you does not seem illegitimate to me.
More generally, it is dubious I think to make a big 'international law' argument, the Soviet Union shifted internal boundaries quite arbitrarily, so they are not necessarily sensible.
We've seen from the Yugoslavia experience how desperately ugly rationalizing the mess can become, even in a small patch. The Ukraine is big, a much larger mess looms.


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