...because it's the incoming :eek:

Gun Turrets
 

the link is 404

The annexation of Crimea was unlawful and remains illegal still. In the 50's Crimea was ceeded by USSR to Ukiaine as a province of the Ukraine. In 1994 Russia signed the Budapest treaty and that should have been the end of the matter, as should the earlier 2 treaties in 1991 which Russia was a party to. In 2014, Russia breaches it's treaty rights and then conducts a referendum that is not done undere Ukraine law, and which included padding of the vote by the simple expedient of bringing in Russians and allowing Russians to vote in the elections. Russia has continued to show a disregard for election process all over the world since with direct and indirect meddling. Russia's annexation of Crimea has as much validity as if they annex Paris.

Russian threats. Lmao.

musings
 

Ukraine has certainly caused issues to Red forces around Karkhiv, up to the border. To the east of that position, they have a risk if Red can make any advances around the NE area of ops, as they could start to surround the Ukrainians in that area. I doubt that Red forces have the means, logistics or morale to be able to do that, but it is a risk that exists. At the same time, Ukraine moving east across the MSR of the Reds will remove the likelihood of encirclement of their own troops in the NE.

Crossing the national boundary of Russia by the Ukrainians is an invitation for escalation, it gives Putin the existential threat that he has been talking about, even if it is in response to his own aggression. Attacking rail & logistic supply lines across the border is one thing, putting boots into Russia has high risks.

Crimea is legally Ukrainian territory. Removing the Kerch bridge still seems to be a worthwhile target, and it has the potential to lock the Black sea fleet into an area that it is limited in its utility.

The theft of crops by Russia is getting some response, it needs greater international outrage and response, including protection of grain shipments that are legitimate from Odessa to other countries that are affected by the loss of supply of ~35% of global grain supplies. The impact on the 3rd world in particular needs to be highlighted to get more reaction from the UN which has been moribund in it's actions for the last 2 months.

The Kilo's remain a threat of causing regional vindictive damage. It is a hallmark of Russian military doctrine that they do not care about civilians, they never have, and for that alone, they have no legitimate place in the UN, which is to the continued shame of the UNGA. Pity Ukraine doesn't have a squadron of S-3's. In the absence of dedicated ASW assets, it would appear that the benefit of drone ISR with high res side-looking SAR would seem to be worthwhile, coupled with drone platforms with standoff missile cape, with warheads that may be effective against a snorting target, that is an open question.

fdr

WOW - your posts are AMAZING !

Would YOU do ANYTHING differently to speed up the end to this horrible war?

is a disastrous stalemate still on the cards?

I agree that what Russia has done might be enough to throw it out of the UN Security Council. But then wouldn't India be next in line to become permanent member, the arch rival of China and finally the global No.1 by population? For China a weakened Russia in the SC is way more comfortable to deal with. So likely no SC change from my view.

FDR,

Ukraine has already threatened to shell Belgorod due to some of the rocket attacks on Kharkiv are coming from there, see

https://www.farsnews.ir/en/news/1401...n-wih-Shelling

Re the stolen grain, see my post in jetblast, they have already tried to sell some to Egypt but following a Ukrainian request they turned it away, the ship is now off Syria and they worry the grain may be filtered through Syria to other countries.

Quite, and they have also likely conducted strikes there or the Belgorodivians need to sort out their wiring safety, like many locations in Redland. driving tracks and boots over the border of terrain into Redland would raise eyebrows with the natives. There is no question that Redland has it's legitimate borders, what is in question is everything else that the magic mushrooms are adding to the national pastime of paranoia. Russia has ZERO legal claim to CRIMEA, or to the eastern areas of UKRAINE, so taking action to make it uncomfortable for every single Redland troop that is not there by invitation of the legitimate government of the country is within the rules of the game, and keeps world opinion on side with the recipients of Redlands paranoid yet so ineffective military aspirations.

Russia is a failed state in every respect that one may care to consider.

They have subjugated their own population by violence and murder, to the point that an already cowering population, used to being beaten by their masters since 947AD consider it a good day if they are not being personally sent to the Gulag, wishing only for the return to the good ol' days of sending your neighbor to the Gulag on innuendo and obsequience.

Russia's claim to honor is from the Great Patriotic War, an event that was much worse due to the purge of the military command by Stalin that pre-dated Barbarossa, and which followed as hardly an improbable response from the Molotov - Von Ribbentrop agreement (Aug 23, 1939) setting up to carve up a sovereign neighbor. Lie down with dogs, you get fleas. Western teaching on the USSR has usually contended that more Russians, Belorussians, and Ukrainians died at the hands of Stalin's regime during the Great Patriotic War than died from the German invasion. Snyder (2011) suggests that is slightly incorrect. The Russians did deliberately kill 3.3 million Ukrainians in 1932 - 33. At least a further 1.7 million USSR citizens died from famine from 1930 - 33. The most recent review of USSR civilian casualties related to Barbarossa is approximately 11 million. USSR contended that 1.65 million Ukrainians died in military service, Ukraine's own estimate is 7 million.

The Russians that wistfully remember the good ol' days seem to forget how much brutality and death came with those leaders.

The decision by Putin to have a tiff with his neighbors, breaking every treaty and agreement that had been made and putting Russian honor down the waste pipe is going to have flow-on effects to the 3rd world, and we could see more people die as a direct result of his paranoid actions than Stalin achieved along with his pact mate, the vegetarian painter corporal. Around 1.5 billion people are looking at insufficient food supplies in Q4 of 2022 directly from Putin and his actions. What that results in is going to be pretty darn interesting; usually, nothing good comes of it.

Even the leader of the original Donbas breakaway in 2014 has nothing good to say about the leadership nor Russian involvement in the donbass

Dippers
 

Does any friendly force out there have spare dipping capable ASW helos at present, I wonder? That is something that would make a difference to the Black sea situation. Not to make light of the task, but getting a few drivers up to speed, and finding basic active sonar capable operators would not be the most arduous task. Needs CAP, but Ukraine seems to have such ability still. That would be a good days work.

Remember the Russian battalion loss at the river crossing…. This makes you wonder at the Russians gullibility.

USN retired S-3's in 2009, though a few were used out at the test center for a while. The idea the Koreans had for getting some out of the boneyard eventually lost steam in about 2017ish. Getting out of the boneyard and rendering them operational would be a non trivial undertaking, although it may still be doable, except for this little bit: how many subcontractors still make the parts and spare parts that are need to keep a squadron or a wing flying?
Bottom Line: don't hold your breath on S-3's coming back any time soon.
Dipping Sonar: not a great search tool, but a fine localization/attack tool.

The Russians may not have air superiority over Ukraine, but I’m certain they’d manage to engage anyone conducting hostile ASW against their Kilos in the Black Sea.

They may carry some Kalibr, but they are rapidly exhausting their stocks - better to pressure the USA to provide Patriot though its only a bridge level asset) and/or Israel Iron Dome.

p.s, both Estonia and Israel have denied claims that the latter gave the former permission to pass over their Blue Spear SSMs to UKR.

Isn't it impossible to remove Russia from the UN Security Council due to them being a permanent member and thus having the power to veto any such decision?

Probably but there is an alternative narrative where the UNSC charter references the USSR and lists the countries therein. Russia took the seat when the USSR collapsed but in doing so it denied the seat to all the other countries that it was supposed to represent, which was against the original charter.

The argument is that the UNSC is setup to endure, maintain the status quo and not trouble the permanent members or not really do anything of note. So many believe that the UN should go back to doing nothing and protecting the status quo but be more aggressive in doing nothing. The permeant seat should go back to all former USSR countries and they can all elect who they want in that former USSR seat for a given period. Those former USSR states listed could even vote for Russia... or not.

Not to say, these projectiles move at such a speed, the missile should have been blurry. Though, the picture shows a very sharp image of the projectile.

Also, the perfectly blue, postcard sky is hard to believe, etc.

Fake.

FWIW, the 'get out of the tank business' lobby in the USMC is a number of decades old. (per my notes above). I disagree with Berger's idea that "China" is the core fight (though it needs to be prepared for, certainly). USMC has to be ready to fight in every clime and place where we can take a gun. Maybe the General ought to listen to the Marine Hymn again.