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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

ORAC 18th May 2022 10:28

For Brimstone 1 - yes, yes and no. Which was known as the minibus full of nuns problem. Brilliant for the designed battle against massed tanks in the Fulda Gap. Not so much in places such as Afghanistan.

Which is why Brimstone 1 was updated to Brimstone 2 and then 3.

But the antitank and armour role in Donbass is exactly what Brimstone 1 it was designed for…

Then again, I’m not sure what the shelf-life was and it’s probable those being delivered are all Mk 2 or 3.

dead_pan 18th May 2022 10:41


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11231903)
For Brimstone 1 - yes, yes and no. Which was known as the minibus full of nuns problem. Brilliant for the designed battle against massed tanks in the Fulda Gap. Not so much in places such as Afghanistan.

Which is why Brimstone 1 was updated to Brimstone 2 and then 3.

But the antitank and armour role in Donbass is exactly what Brimstone 1 it was designed for…

Then again, I’m not sure what the shelf-life was and it’s probable those being delivered are all Mk 2 or 3.

Many thanks.

NutLoose 18th May 2022 10:59

Wiki states the MK3 had surface to surface capability.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brimstone_(missile)


Brimstone 3

In March 2019, MBDA successfully tested the latest Brimstone 3 version in Sweden, now including surface-to-surface firing, plus new hardware allowing future enhancements.[
Though dates on the missile remains indicate possible Mk1

https://armourersbench.com/2022/05/15/brimstone-missiles-in-ukraine/


..

MAINJAFAD 18th May 2022 11:04


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11231895)
Could someone enlighten me as to how these weapons would operate in this situation i.e. are they pre-programmed with the general target location and then use their MMW seeker for terminal guidance? Also, is the seeker capable of discriminating between say a tank and something like a truck?

Millimetric radio frequencies are not that far off those of infra red, so the seeker can basically see an image of the target which it will then compare with a target list of "Radar" images in its memory. If the weapon was anything like the 81mm Merlin Guided Mortar bomb that was developed around the same time, it would then attack what it saw in an order of priority of anything moving first, Tank top of the list, Truck at the bottom, followed by anything static in the same order. Problem with that weapon (From somebody I know who was involved in its trials) was the mortar bombs seeker couldn't tell if the target had already been hit or not, thus after all the tanks had been stopped or everything was static, bombs would only home on the tanks that had already been taken out and ignore everything else. It was one of the reasons the weapon was canned from my source. I suspect Brimstone can be programmed before launch to attack a specific type of vehicle.

MAINJAFAD 18th May 2022 11:10


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11231903)
For Brimstone 1 - yes, yes and no. Which was known as the minibus full of nuns problem. Brilliant for the designed battle against massed tanks in the Fulda Gap. Not so much in places such as Afghanistan.

Which is why Brimstone 1 was updated to Brimstone 2 and then 3.

But the antitank and armour role in Donbass is exactly what Brimstone 1 it was designed for…

Then again, I’m not sure what the shelf-life was and it’s probable those being delivered are all Mk 2 or 3.

From the info dates on the data plates, most likely Mk 1's, though they are very likely almost life ex or have had an extension or two.

peter we 18th May 2022 11:19


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11231903)
For Brimstone 1 - yes, yes and no. Which was known as the minibus full of nuns problem. Brilliant for the designed battle against massed tanks in the Fulda Gap. Not so much in places such as Afghanistan.

Which is why Brimstone 1 was updated to Brimstone 2 and then 3.

But the antitank and armour role in Donbass is exactly what Brimstone 1 it was designed for…

Then again, I’m not sure what the shelf-life was and it’s probable those being delivered are all Mk 2 or 3.

Shelf life for Hellfire was 10 years with 3 year extension (according to an Internet document))

Brimstone 2 was for replenishment.

Photos of a supposed Brimstone posted a few days ago must have been hellfire. Too old (2004) and the seeker was the wrong shape.

NutLoose 18th May 2022 11:30

Russia claim to have taken out Ukrainian M777 Howitzers......... and they have film to prove it....... the only flaw is the film shows them as all appear to be missing the targets.
However

It appears a Russian armoured train may have been hit by saboteurs in Melitipol and also high ranking officers have been killed elsewhere in the town

dead_pan 18th May 2022 11:49


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11231921)
Russia claim to have taken out Ukrainian M777 Howitzers......... and they have film to prove it....... the only flaw is the film shows them as all appear to be missing the targets.

Alas close enough to cause some casualties and possibly damage to the M777, as the second Tweet points out.

Have to say those drones are an effin' menace. One features here, tracking an ITV news crew:


NutLoose 18th May 2022 12:27

Interestingly the MOD update today as to the state of play map wise is still showing Mariupol as contested, and the briefing avoids mentioning the city having fallen.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f725619dc.jpeg

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....119a6c194.jpeg

Ripton 18th May 2022 12:38


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11231947)
Interestingly the MOD update today as to the state of play map wise is still showing Mariupol as contested, and the briefing avoids mention the city having fallen.

The Telegraph is reporting that not all of the Ukrainian forces have left the plant.


Top-ranking Ukrainian commanders at the Azovstal steelworks "have not surrendered", a pro-Russian separatist leader has said, as Russia claims that almost one thousand Ukrainian troops have left the plant.The hundreds of fighters who have given themselves up did not include any commanders of the highest level, Denis Pushilin, the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, is reported to have said.

His comments come as Russia's defence ministry claimed that 959 people had now laid down their arms at the steelworks plant, the last bastion of Ukrainian defence in the besieged city of Mariupol.

pasta 18th May 2022 13:29

With Ukranian resistance in the steel works apparently tying up a lot of Russian forces, it makes sense to maintain some presence (albeit at huge risk to the individuals involved). Shipping out everyone they can manage without removes them from harm's way (hopefully); make sure it's well-publicised in the hope that stops the Russians from disappearing them, and there's a reduced demand on whatever resources remain within the works.

NutLoose 18th May 2022 14:17

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....31489a1c59.png

Lonewolf_50 18th May 2022 14:35


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11231995)
{Your Chart}

NutLoose, I find the "441 UAV" figure to be very significant (to me) as a data point, given how drones have been changing warfare for about two decades. Any idea on how many drones Ukraine has lost (they use them a lot) or is that number not well understood?

NutLoose 18th May 2022 14:57

General Petraeus thoughts on the war


MikeSnow 18th May 2022 15:06


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11232006)
NutLoose, I find the "441 UAV" figure to be very significant (to me) as a data point, given how drones have been changing warfare for about two decades. Any idea on how many drones Ukraine has lost (they use them a lot) or is that number not well understood?

Oryx found visual confirmation for 61 Russian UAVs and 22 Ukrainian UAVs (captured or destroyed). A week ago Russia was claiming they destroyed 821 Ukrainian drones.

NutLoose 18th May 2022 15:11


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11232006)
NutLoose, I find the "441 UAV" figure to be very significant (to me) as a data point, given how drones have been changing warfare for about two decades. Any idea on how many drones Ukraine has lost (they use them a lot) or is that number not well understood?

Russian losses verified from photo evidence they give, but i would bet a lot are not recorded

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (61, of which destroyed: 34, captured: 27)

Ukrainian

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...ukrainian.html

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (22, of which destroyed: 18, captured: 4)


Lonewolf_50 18th May 2022 15:36


Originally Posted by MikeSnow (Post 11232019)
Oryx found visual confirmation for 61 Russian UAVs and 22 Ukrainian UAVs (captured or destroyed). A week ago Russia was claiming they destroyed 821 Ukrainian drones.

Thank you, Mike.
The difference in reported 'confirmed' versus 'estimated' in my experience was about a factor of 3 (that was human casualties) which looks similar to the delta here (at least in terms of order of magnitude). One should make considerable allowance for estimation/error/dual reporting during an ongoing conflict.

NutLoose: thanks for the video link, the General offered a pretty sober assessment.

fdr 18th May 2022 17:46


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11231669)

Nuttoose, any idea where those photos are located? That's slot of graves, more than 3100 recent or prepped by a rough count.

MikeSnow 18th May 2022 18:14


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11232085)
Nuttoose, any idea where those photos are located? That's slot of graves, more than 3100 recent or prepped by a rough count.

Looks similar to a Maxar satellite image of a cemetry near Mariupol:


NutLoose 18th May 2022 18:31

Yes one of the new grave sites around Mariupol :(


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