We like to think that Putin has shot himself in the foot (if not higher), but his oil and gas revenues are holding up just fine and western Europe is heading into a major energy crisis over the next winter if not sooner.

War may have the purpose of gaining control over resources and a productive population, but the destruction of infrastructure by shelling results in nothing really won except for heaps of rubble.

We see similar in Syria and Yemen. Ukraine has the very good fortune of having powerful allies on its side.

There's rumblings of resurrecting the JCPOA with Iran which would get its oil back on the world market (read China would turn to buying oil from Russia instead of Iran). Israel will of course have something to say in Washington.

As often said, who runs out of munitions first will be a deciding factor, but will that be weeks, months or years from now?

Because for some reason when I post directly it causes Pprune severe problems and I got barred for doing so.

I forgot on one occasion a couple months ago on JetBlast and am now, it would seem, permanently barred from the forum. I don’t wish that to occur here so obey their directions.

There but for the grace of the mods go I. I have to confess the rules on posting links are not entirely clear to me.

Lithuania and the Suwalki Gap now most definitely an imminent flash point.

“Lithuania won’t agree to concessions on transit of Russian goods through neighboring Kaliningrad.

“Lithuania must and will maintain control over the goods transported through its territory,” said Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda.”….

This might might not end well. There are people in the Kremlin that are off their rockers.

I might have remebered the situation wrong so deleted what was here

Russia's "strategy", if you want to call it that, is massive indiscriminate long range artillery bombardments along the line of advance. They are expending large caliber shells at an unprecedented rate and are rapidly drawing down their stocks. Given the demonstrated logistical incompetence of the Russian army I predict one day in the not too distant future the Arty Battalions are going to ask for the next round of ammo supplies an be told "oops we just ran out". The long guns are suddenly going to go silent and the Ukrainians are going to attack leading to a massive rout.

I think that rather than a long drawn out slug fest there is going to be a massive and sudden change of fortunes, and not in a good way for the Russians. The impact of having the entire senior leadership cadre of the Russian Army chosen for political fealty, instead of military competence is going to bite Putin in the Arse. Ironically the small number of competent Generals have largely been killed off leading from the front.

Vaguely recollect that Lithuania agreed to allow free transit for Russian goods as part of the deal when the Russians left. Not sure how the EU membership overrides prior agreements.
Plus, it seems a silly provocation, as Russia has ample ship service to Kaliningrad to supplement the rail links.

you mean like Russia promised to protect Ukraine for giving up nukes?
The Russians are so famous for keeping their word (not to mention written agreements) that it has no significance if such an agreement exists.

It has to be remembered that the closure is only affecting sanctioned goods. It is not a total blockade (which would be good, would make the russkies get some of their own medicine).

Also you'll need a lot of ships to make up for the railway connection. The biggest cargo ships can't make it to the Baltic sea and the biggest shipping companies have stopped going to Russian ports. They'd be looking for ships badly to make up for the lost connection.

Russia has a ferry service from St Petersburg once or twice a week, but it was a very small capacity, nowhere near enough to replace the road/rail link used d to bring in heavy bulk resources.

That's great in the summer, not so great in the winter if the sea freezes.

russia has dozen icebreakers in the Baltic sea. As does all the other Baltic sea countries. Ice hasn't been an issue for hundred years soon.

These two statements really struck me. After 4 Months of fighting they are still unable to eliminate the few Fighter Aircraft and S-300 Systems of Ukraine but suddenly are able to take out the satellites and the whole Missile defence of NATO within hours/days. Total delusion/desperation. It tells a lot about frustration and hurt pride.

And that is why I don't think the Lithuanian Blockage is such a great idea. Russia has left rationality long behind. It's pure emotion. And that is prone to doing stoopid things.

If it was indeed a blockade, then I would agree. But it isn't.

The Russians were kicked out, the agreement makes clear that Lithuania can block it as its a independent sovereign state.
Russia has absolutely no right to transit the country.

Not sure they were 'kicked out', they left as the USSR fell apart iirc.
There was recognition in the eventual text that stuff to and from Russia to Kaliningrad was an internal transfer, not subject to customs controls.
More broadly, this just seems a petty provocation, not sensible when one shares infrastructure such as the power grid with the grouchy neighbor.

Well ORAC you have achieved the virtually impossible, after ten maybe twelve years fighting agin it I have gone and joined twxxter.
simply because the quality of yours and others input and tired of having to restart pprune because twitter had blocked the page, worth it, we'll see

Standard TIR carnet. Nothing spectacular there. You can't white wash Russias unjust actions by blaming others.

Be assured - he will carry on trying.

Latest heavyweight replacement for Ukraine commanding general.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-Ukraine.html