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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 24th Feb 2023, 14:34
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Old 24th Feb 2023, 15:45
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Appropriately today, the first Leopards are in Ukraine.

as a side note, Germany upped theur 2A6 contribution from 14 to 18, the Swedes are sending 10 and Finland is providing three mine clearing Leos (the spear heads of an assault that the Russians have been lacking hence their columns are well destroyed in mine fields).

Ukraine Is getting serious capabilities.


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Old 24th Feb 2023, 16:00
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Just to show how difficult it must be getting for Ukraine. and THIS IS JUST TANKS!

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/t...cted-5572.html

To assess this situation, letís go back to the beginning of 2022 and see which tanks had already been in service at that time:

T-64BV, T-64BV model of 2017, T-64BV model of 2022;

T-64BM Bulat;

T-64BM2;

T-72B and T-72AV;

T-72AMT;

T-80B and T-80BV;

T-84;

BM Oplot (even in a rather small amount)
So, now it is worth adding to this list the russian trophy tanks. And the list includes T-72B3, T-80B, T-80U, T-80UD, single ones like T-80UE-1, T-80BVM, T-90A, T-90S, T-90M, T-62 and T-62M. That is, there are more than a dozen models and versions, where even the T-80BVM goes with different trims, for example, in terms of sights.
Next, the help of allies, consisting of the T-72 tanks of the Warsaw Pact countries, which are also slightly different from the Soviet T-72M. Some of them were also modernized after overhaul, like the T-72M1R, or are their own deep modernization the PT-91 Twardy. Also, the M-55S that is a modernized T-55 with the NATO 105-mm barrel and other improvements.

That is, at the moment we are talking about approximately two dozen different versions of tanks. But after a positive solution to the issue with Western machines, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are waiting for the Leopard 2A6 and Leopard 2A4, while the difference between these vehicles is more than significant, both in terms of armor, sighting devices, barrels, and more. We might add another probable tank, which is the Swedish version of the Leopard 2A5, namely the Strv 122.

Add the Challenger 2 and the already announced Abrams M1A2, and we will get six more versions, and in total from 25 to 30 tanks of various versions right now and in the short term of entering the service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And this might be the world record for versions of tanks in the ranks of one army.

Of them, all T-64, T-72, T-80, T-84, T-90, PT-91, as well as the Oplot have the same ammunition, but about 6-7 different engines or their versions. The T-62, M-55S and Challenger 2 each have their own separate ammunition. The Leopard 2 and Abrams are unified in terms of ammo, but not only have all other components different, they even require different sets of tools in the metric and inch systems. Challenger 2 needs both sets, because the turret and the body are on different "bolts".

And almost half of the "zoo" already existed in Ukraine as of 2021, and 3/4 of the list by the end of 2022, however such a situation isnít problem-free. Ukraine is not in a position with freedom of choice which tanks the allies should hand over, since the weapons are needed here and now.

Moreover, even the NATO countries that are close to the russian border are taking the similar steps. For example, Poland in the short term will have T-72M (if not all transferred to Ukraine), PT-91 Twardy, Leopard 2A4, Leopard 2A5, Leopard 2PL, Abrams M1A1 FEP, Abrams M1A2 SEPv3, as well as Korean K2. That is, eight versions of tanks and this in peacetime conditions.

P.S. Below is the entire approximate list of available, announced and possible candidates for strengthening the tank fleet of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

T-62;

T-62M;

M-55S;

T-64BV;

T-64B1M;

T-64BV model of 2017;

T-64BV model of 2022;

T-64BM1 Bulat;

T-64BM Bulat;

T-64BM2 Bulat;

T-72B;

T-72AV;

T-72M;

T-72M1R;

T-72AMT;

T-72B3 model of 2013;

T-72B3 2016 model;

T-80B;

T-80BV;

T-80U;

T-80UD;

T-80BVM;

T-84;

BM Oplot;

T-90A;

T-90S;

T-90M;

----- Ukraine is currently somewhere here in this part of the list, the following are announced, but not yet transferred:

Challenger 2;

Leopard 2A4;

Leopard 2A6;

Abrams M1A2;

PT-91 Twardy;

----- Unannounced but hypothetical candidates:

Strv 122;

Leopard 2A5;

Leclerc;

Challenger 1;

Leopard 1;

Ariete;

T-14 Armata.


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Old 24th Feb 2023, 16:08
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How many Leo's Ukraine are expecting, see

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/the_m...eive-5816.html
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Old 24th Feb 2023, 16:28
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
One reason why I keep banging on about Crimea, the way i see it as a layman would be to take Crimea back, destroy the bridge and you then reduce the Russians ability to resupply their forces, you reduce the front significantly, you can then control parts of the Black Sea and also the Azov Sea thus gaining the possibility of destroying any ship or air launched missiles at source, I.E still in their launchers, It would also relieve the threats to Odesa and Kherson and enable an outflanking maneuver around the Dnipro defences?? while giving a firebase to the Russian bases / stockpiles behind the lines.
I suggest while there is a choice of land corridors from Russia to the occupied terrotories and Crimea, the bridge is of more symbolic than strategic importance.
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Old 24th Feb 2023, 17:16
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
I suggest while there is a choice of land corridors from Russia to the occupied terrotories and Crimea, the bridge is of more symbolic than strategic importance.
There is a single road and a single rail line (two tracks) that connect Crimea with the Russian supply path (it passes through Melitopol). Cut that link and blow up a section of the bridge and the only way for Russia to supply Crimea is by sea.
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Old 24th Feb 2023, 17:46
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Originally Posted by Sfojimbo
There is a single road and a single rail line (two tracks) that connect Crimea with the Russian supply path (it passes through Melitopol). Cut that link and blow up a section of the bridge and the only way for Russia to supply Crimea is by sea.
. If it cutting the land route option was that easy, surely it would have been done?
The main road out of my village is completely closed at present but there is still plenty of traffic through the village.
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Old 24th Feb 2023, 18:24
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
. If it cutting the land route option was that easy, surely it would have been done?
I think it is rather superficial to talk about "easy" in a war with 200 000 + dead/wounded and both the distances/necessary troops make it a very serious operation, however the delivery of GLSDB with 150 km range ( and the possibility of a Ukrainian ground attack) at least make it a possibility that the land supply (not bridge ) to Crimea could be cut. The immense difficulties this would heap on the Russkies make this a tempting - but dangerous - objective .
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Old 24th Feb 2023, 18:55
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Just to show how difficult it must be getting for Ukraine. and THIS IS JUST TANKS!

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/t...cted-5572.html
Is it any different for the Russians? Everything from T62's to T90's?

How difficult is it to get out of a T62 and operate a T84? A tank is a tank. Just learn where the knobs an switches are in the new one and off you go. Correct me if I'm wrong.

It's not like going from a MiG 29 to a F16 Although my Dad said, "if you can fly a Chipmunk, you can flay anything"




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Old 24th Feb 2023, 21:08
  #14870 (permalink)  
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Sanction Rev zz

Sanctions continue to be expanded... The US Dept of Commerce list is interesting reading. Some surprises, reading your own country's sanctioned individuals and entities is interesting. For China, make sure you have a cup of coffee... it takes a couple of hundred pages....

US DOC SANCTIONS LIST

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Old 25th Feb 2023, 01:11
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UK to give/loan Typhoons (Tranche 1?) to Eastern European allies to release MiG's for Ukraine.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-fa...x=1677259198-1
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Old 25th Feb 2023, 03:25
  #14872 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
UK to give/loan Typhoons (Tranche 1?) to Eastern European allies to release MiG's for Ukraine.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-fa...x=1677259198-1
If we give planes so others can free up their planes how do we replace our losses? The UK has already faced criticism that it cannot defend itself.
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Old 25th Feb 2023, 04:22
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Originally Posted by uxb99
If we give planes so others can free up their planes how do we replace our losses? The UK has already faced criticism that it cannot defend itself.
Well, you might want to get in front of it and make sure you aren't at risk. It's, maybe, better to have the battles in Ukraine instead of in the UK.
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Old 25th Feb 2023, 04:42
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Originally Posted by WB627
How difficult is it to get out of a T62 and operate a T84? A tank is a tank. Just learn where the knobs an switches are in the new one and off you go. Correct me if I'm wrong.
It's doable, but needs training. And you need to lose one crew member. Those are very different beasts, T62 being the last version of a WW2 era concept with 4 crew (the loader being the fourth). T84 is a modernised version of T80, which originates to T64 which really was the first in line of the turret tossers requiring only three crew.

More importantly you'll need separate maintenance and logistics, eg the T62 has 115mm main gun vs 125mm in the T84. So it's not just about the crew, you'll need lots of other things behind it and that is the tricky part.
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Old 25th Feb 2023, 05:10
  #14875 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by uxb99
If we give planes so others can free up their planes how do we replace our losses? The UK has already faced criticism that it cannot defend itself.
If Ireland attacks the UK by Cessna, then perhaps there is an issue. At this time, the VDV etc seem to be rather preoccupied with learning new ways to lose aircraft to the Ukrainians, around Ukraine airspace. Assisting the Ukrainians accelerate the education of the Red air seems to be a fine use of assets, including early versions of the Typhoon.

Same with tanks.... exactly who is being defended against in Southern England at present by any hardware? There is a fight, it is in Ukraine, and they are bleeding out due to the drip feed of armament that has played out for a year. We didn't give a NFZ when it was desperately needed, we feel good about finally giving some effective arms at the end of the first year of bleeding, while Ukrainians die daily due to the insipid response that we have considered is a best option.

This is the fight that the munitions were intended to be applied to, and by grace, it is the Ukrainians that have sufficient testosterone in every one of their team, girls included, to actually stand up against aggression. The attack by Russia when seen in historical context extends into NATOville, Ukraine is an hors d'oeuvres to Poland who Putin believes should not exist, and to Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria that also are needed to be controlled by Russia to manage their anxiety. The southern 'Stans all come into the same program, on the assumption that Putin can keep the wheels on the wagon which has been seen to be mismanaged and rotten from corruption, but still, given any chance to make inroads in Ukraine, the next borders are directly with NATO states. Anything less than the removal of Russia from Ukraine will cost europe far more in defending the Baltics, and honouring commitments made to Finland already.

This current debacle arises from the gutless response to obligations that the west came up with to all of the prior acts of aggression that Russia has conducted, including in Georgia, Chechnya, and in Part I of Crimea/Donbas. The west made commitments for the removal of nukes from Ukraine, and then we failed utterly to stand up to the commitments when they came to pass.

Giving a handful of Leo's and Challengers etc won't make up for the blood that has been spilt due to the west's failure of honour. Giving them the support they ask for unfettered by the squeamishness of our politicians and without first passing a weather eye over the ledger of cost/benefit would be a step towards gaining some dignity back.
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Old 25th Feb 2023, 06:02
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If we give planes so others can free up their planes how do we replace our losses? The UK has already faced criticism that it cannot defend itself.
The tranche 1 F2s are already planned to be withdrawn from service in May 2025, so it would only bring that forward a couple of years.

Total of 30 aircraft currently operated by 2 squadrons, a couple to be retained for trials units and the rest stripped for spares to maintain the remaining FGR4 fleet.

BAE had told the HoC defence committee that hey can be upgraded to FGR4 standard instead, but they havenít done any design work or coatings. Sounds like a money pit. Plus how many years would it take with how many in the conversion programme leaving how many on the front line? Sounds great for BAE, not for the RAF.

If a decision was made that the RAF needs to have more aircraft, and the treasury stumped up the money, it would be more sensible to stop dithering and order more of the planned F-35B fleet and expedite delivery. The original planned purchase was 138 aircraft, we currently have 74 on order.

Folding the F2 squadrons early would also release trained pilots to convert to the F-35 as well - where we currently have more jets than pilots to fly themÖ

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-has-mo...dmits-12735825

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Old 25th Feb 2023, 08:04
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It's not quite as you suggest, ORAC.

There have been no F2s for a very long time (circa 15 years, at a guess, poss longer?). The Tranche 1 single-seaters were all upgraded to then current FGR4 standard at the time. The airframe structure of the Tranche 1 differs from that of the later tranches, and it is this which is making them difficult/expensive to future proof and in some cases hard to maintain due to a lack of spares (something which will only get worse unless the airframe structures are standardised). This point alone surely makes it questionable as to how valuable these assets would be to Ukraine and for how long? As you rightly point out, bringing them all up to Tranche 2/3 standard sounds horrifically expensive. Also, 10 of the 30 quoted are in storage at Shawbury.

Only one of those "F2 squadrons" is a pure Tranche 1 operator (and even they have been operating a Tranche 2 jet recently), so there might be less crews freed up for F-35 training than you might expect.

Last edited by KarlADrage; 25th Feb 2023 at 08:24.
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Old 25th Feb 2023, 09:32
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64762219

China is suggesting it has a resolution to bring peace to Ukraine and Zelensky is willing to sit down and talk with Xi over the proposal.

This seems to be window dressing, The big Zel will meet with the Chinese, knowing that there is very little that will benefit Ukraine and will all be about giving Putin the escape he desperately needs and wants. (Watching the speech earlier this week even Putin knows he is fecked).
In all likelihood Ukraine will play along with the charade until mid spring then have a dash at cutting off Crimea and striking deep into the breakaway regions, before saying "okay lets talk."
Listening to Rod Little from the Times this morning saying that Ukraine cannot win is just bolleux.
Give the Ukrainians long range strike capabilities so that anything shaped like a Gas truck or larger is reduced to molten metal 42 meters inside the Ukrainian border will start changing the tide. (Wagner are already saying they are being starved of ammo, well they should be starved of everything just as the Russians did to the Ukrainians in the early 1930s (Holodomor millions died)).
Send the Ukrainians EVERYTHING, what do we need the kit for? Who is going to attack us? Russia, China, France? Even if they did, apart from Ben Wallace, we don't have the political leadership to defend ourselves.

As for Crimea, the problem Ukraine has with taking it, is that they then introduce a massive border that the Russians can infiltrate and tie up lots of Ukrainian assets. Better to drop the bridge, seal the land border and call it a special economic zone administered through a third party. (After kicking the Russian fleet out of Sevastopol).

Saying that the Ukrainians can't win is incorrect - they can't win in this static meat grinding WW1 style of trench warfare, however give them the kit to carry out manoeuvre warfare then this nonsense could be over in a matter of months.

(Its not about night vision equipment on tanks yada yada yada, its about having power and momentum to strike deep into the enemies rear and fortunately the Russians do not have the ability to counter this, as they don't have mobile strategic reserves (except aircraft - that is likely the main reason the Russian Airforce has not been committed) to stop a Ukrainian advance).
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Old 25th Feb 2023, 17:19
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Skinned for the pot.

Originally Posted by WB627
Is it any different for the Russians? Everything from T62's to T90's?

How difficult is it to get out of a T62 and operate a T84? A tank is a tank. Just learn where the knobs an switches are in the new one and off you go. Correct me if I'm wrong.

It's not like going from a MiG 29 to a F16 Although my Dad said, "if you can fly a Chipmunk, you can flay anything"
...and if you can flay a chipmunk, you could probably become a surgeon.
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Old 25th Feb 2023, 17:34
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"Listening to Rod Little from the Times this morning saying that Ukraine cannot win is just bolleux."
He does have a history of his brain not being positioned in the most advantageous location in his body.
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