Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[GlobalNav]

Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64762219

China is suggesting it has a resolution to bring peace to Ukraine and Zelensky is willing to sit down and talk with Xi over the proposal.

This seems to be window dressing, The big Zel will meet with the Chinese, knowing that there is very little that will benefit Ukraine and will all be about giving Putin the escape he desperately needs and wants. (Watching the speech earlier this week even Putin knows he is fecked).
In all likelihood Ukraine will play along with the charade until mid spring then have a dash at cutting off Crimea and striking deep into the breakaway regions, before saying "okay lets talk."
Listening to Rod Little from the Times this morning saying that Ukraine cannot win is just bolleux.
Give the Ukrainians long range strike capabilities so that anything shaped like a Gas truck or larger is reduced to molten metal 42 meters inside the Ukrainian border will start changing the tide. (Wagner are already saying they are being starved of ammo, well they should be starved of everything just as the Russians did to the Ukrainians in the early 1930s (Holodomor millions died)).
Send the Ukrainians EVERYTHING, what do we need the kit for? Who is going to attack us? Russia, China, France? Even if they did, apart from Ben Wallace, we don't have the political leadership to defend ourselves.

As for Crimea, the problem Ukraine has with taking it, is that they then introduce a massive border that the Russians can infiltrate and tie up lots of Ukrainian assets. Better to drop the bridge, seal the land border and call it a special economic zone administered through a third party. (After kicking the Russian fleet out of Sevastopol).

Saying that the Ukrainians can't win is incorrect - they can't win in this static meat grinding WW1 style of trench warfare, however give them the kit to carry out manoeuvre warfare then this nonsense could be over in a matter of months.

(Its not about night vision equipment on tanks yada yada yada, its about having power and momentum to strike deep into the enemies rear and fortunately the Russians do not have the ability to counter this, as they don't have mobile strategic reserves (except aircraft - that is likely the main reason the Russian Airforce has not been committed) to stop a Ukrainian advance).

I suppose Ukraine must not dismiss the possibility of negotiation out of hand, but anything less than full, peaceful, unthreatened restoration of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea, etc., is not acceptable. I would include other stipulations as well, but I’m not the one with family on the frontlines or displaced from missile destroyed homes.

[FUMR]

There will be no meaningful talks unless Putin makes concessions. If he does, he won't be trusted to honour them! So, the only way out is a change of regime to one not necessarily bowing totally to the west but to one which can be trusted to respect any negotiated agreements.

[Low average]

I think that the chances of a Russian Revolution are infinitesimal unfortunately.

[nevillestyke]

One more time now!

Originally Posted by Low average

I think that the chances of a Russian Revolution are infinitesimal unfortunately.

Can we be certain that the Tzar didn't once have this view?

[Low average]

Nothing is certain obviously, but the majority of Russians support the invasion, and the rest are scared, dead, in jail or have left. Not ever going to happen in my opinion. Only way is to defeat them in the field.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/st...0wmrgCimZoMojw

EU closing the door on spare parts for the russian government to keep its trucks and cars running. Latest EU sanctions include:

"electronics, specialized vehicles, machine parts, spare parts for trucks and jet engines, as well as goods for the construction sector."

[tdracer]

Originally Posted by Low average

Nothing is certain obviously, but the majority of Russians support the invasion, and the rest are scared, dead, in jail or have left. Not ever going to happen in my opinion. Only way is to defeat them in the field.

The average Russian's support is only because they've been repeated lied to by their government. They have no idea how badly their troops are suffering, or the level of Russian casualties. Eventually, the truth gets out - it can take a lot of time, but it will come out.
Once they learn the truth, support for the war will rapidly evaporate - and they are likely to take it out on Putin and his cronies. Putin knows this, so he'll keep the lies going as long as possible, but it's impossible to keep it going forever.

[NutLoose]

Oops

https://twitter.com/ThinkingOnce/sta...82745939238913

​​​​​​​

Twitter

[GeeRam]

Originally Posted by ORAC

EU closing the door on spare parts for the russian government to keep its trucks and cars running. Latest EU sanctions include:

"electronics, specialized vehicles, machine parts, spare parts for trucks and jet engines, as well as goods for the construction sector."

I don't think this will have much impact, as the Chinese auto industry will just step willingly in to cover the loss of the European brands.
Apparently, the roads of Moscow and St.Pete are now already awash with Chinese made cars, filling the void left by the European brands in the past year.

[Uberteknik]

Originally Posted by tdracer

Once they learn the truth, support for the war will rapidly evaporate - and they are likely to take it out on Putin and his cronies. Putin knows this, so he'll keep the lies going as long as possible, but it's impossible to keep it going forever.

One can fool some of the people all of the time, or, all of the people some of the time. One cannot fool all of the people all of the time.

[Low average]

Hitler managed it. All the way to his bunker in Berlin.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by GeeRam

I don't think this will have much impact, as the Chinese auto industry will just step willingly in to cover the loss of the European brands.
Apparently, the roads of Moscow and St.Pete are now already awash with Chinese made cars, filling the void left by the European brands in the past year.

It requires a very significant chunk of money for the ordinary family to dump one car ( not part-exchange ) and buy another one . Is this really happening as you claim and with no economic difficulty ?

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Low average

I think that the chances of a Russian Revolution are infinitesimal unfortunately.

1917 started in the Tsar's army on the western front... due to all of the abuses and negligence that we see portrayed every day in the Donbas by the Russian command and the lunacy of Putin's Chef de Partie - vegetable sauté specialité. The average Muscovite is annoyed that they can't get full internet access, they care less about their kin that are reenacting Somme I & Somme II on the orders of their dear leader who they are obliged to say nice things about... "beautiful horse" (s.v.: "don't mention the clothes... don't mention the clothes...)

Originally Posted by nevillestyke

Can we be certain that the Tzar didn't once have this view?

The Tsars assumptions were confirmed as being invalid from the 6th floor window in the basement of Ipatiev house, Yekaterinburg, Sverdlovsk Oblast. [see, change does happen]. There is a diminishing chance that the chef doesn't end up with an enforced suicide for tsar & country, it is one of the few means that Lord Voldemort has left to deflect his brilliant decision to others. The rest of the current group of thieves, a novel post glastnost variation on robber barons that have run Russia for the last 1200 years... will turn on Putin at the first chance that comes along. Lord V knows that and does not trust any of his loyal wingmen (an aviation link?) as far as he can throw them, which is between 6 and 16 floors at present. V travels by armoured train nowadays... that is a substantial amount of paranoia going along. No wonder he has a tic or 2.

Originally Posted by GlobalNav

I suppose Ukraine must not dismiss the possibility of negotiation out of hand, but anything less than full, peaceful, unthreatened restoration of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea, etc., is not acceptable. I would include other stipulations as well, but I’m not the one with family on the frontlines or displaced from missile destroyed homes.

Russia has shown a historic disregard for treaty intent. Surprising that they were caught short by the perfidy of Barbarossa, after all, they entered a mischievous pact with the devil, or the devils helper, Von Ribbentrop, and then got upset that their new found partners in crime don't honour their word. Fool me once etc. Since that time, there has been few if any occasions in the mass of eloquent sanitary tissue that the foreign ministries have churned out that has not been "soft, strong and thoroughly absorbent".

Ukraine had the hard lesson to learn that it is not just Russia that disregards it's obligations and fails to honour commitments, the assurances provided in the Budapest Memorandum (actually 3 different documents, and associated later bilateral assurances by.... China, and France). The assurances arose in respect of the removal of nuclear weapons from Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakstan, and the assurances were a restatement of existing obligations with some clarity (evidently not enough for the guarantors to be actually held accountable...) of the CSCE's Final Act, UN Charter, and the Non Proliferation Treaty.

Articles 1,2,4-6 of the Budapest Memorandum are the biggest sell out since some dude was stuck on a cross, by a jury of his peers; the current status of international response is a stain on the fabric of our moral high horse blankets. Russia abrogated it's rights to be the continuing party in the UN, and the continued abuse of the final sentence of Art. 27(3) of the UN Charter is a blight on civilisation. Our representatives in the UN own the deaths of Ukrainians, as much as Voldemort and Piggy la Soup Chef do.

1. The Russian Federation, The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The Russian Federation, The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

4. The Russian Federation, The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon state party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons if Ukraine should become the victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

5. The Russian Federation, The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm, in the case of Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapons state party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state.

6. Ukraine, The Russian Federation, The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments.

This memorandum will become applicable on signature.

Spoiler

 

 

The Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe, which opened at Helsinki on 3 July 1973 and continued at Geneva from 18 September 1973 to 21 July 1975, was concluded at Helsinki on 1 August 1975 by the High Representatives of [:]

• Austria,
• Belgium,
• Bulgaria,
• Canada,
• Cyprus,
• Czechoslovakia,
• Denmark,
• Finland,
• France,
• the German Democratic Republic,
• the Federal Republic of Germany,
• Greece,
• the Holy See,
• Hungary,
• Iceland,
• Ireland,
• Italy,
• Liechtenstein,
• Luxembourg,
• Malta,
• Monaco,
• the Netherlands,
• Norway,
• Poland,
• Portugal,
• Romania,
• San Marino,
• Spain,
• Sweden,
• Switzerland,
• Turkey,
• the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics,
• the United Kingdom,
• the United States of America and
• Yugoslavia.

CSCE Final Memorandum, breaches by Voldamort

Article I. Sovereign equality, respect for the rights inherent in sovereignty

Spoiler

 

 

The participating States will respect each other's sovereign equality and individuality as well as all the rights inherent in and encompassed by its sovereignty, including in particular the right of every State to juridical equality, to territorial integrity and to freedom and political independence. They will also respect each other's right freely to choose and develop its political, social, economic and cultural systems as well as its right to determine its laws and regulations.

Within the framework of international law, all the participating States have equal rights and duties. They will respect each other's right to define and conduct as it wishes its relations with other States in accordance with international law and in the spirit of the present Declaration. They consider that their frontiers can be changed, in accordance with international law, by peaceful means and by agreement. They also have the right to belong or not to belong to international organizations, to be or not to be a party to bilateral or multilateral treaties including the right to be or not to be a party to treaties of alliance; they also have the right to neutrality.

Article II. Refraining from the threat or use of force

Spoiler

 

 

The participating States will refrain in their mutual relations, as well as in their international relations in general, from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations and with the present Declaration. No consideration may be invoked to serve to warrant resort to the threat or use of force in contravention of this principle.

Likewise they will refrain from any manifestation of force for the purpose of inducing another participating State to renounce the full exercise of its sovereign rights. Likewise they will also refrain in their mutual relations from any act of reprisal by force.

No such threat or use of force will be employed as a means of settling disputes, or questions likely to give rise to disputes, between them.

Accordingly, the participating States will refrain from any acts constituting a threat of force or direct or indirect use of force against another participating State.

Article III. Inviolability of frontiers

Spoiler

 

 

The participating States regard as inviolable all one another's frontiers as well as the frontiers of all States in Europe and therefore they will refrain now and in the future from assaulting these frontiers.

Accordingly, they will also refrain from any demand for, or act of, seizure and usurpation of part or all of the territory of any participating State.

Article IV. Territorial integrity of States

Spoiler

 

 

The participating States will respect the territorial integrity of each of the participating States.

Accordingly, they will refrain from any action inconsistent with the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations against the territorial integrity, political independence or the unity of any participating State, and in particular from any such action constituting a threat or use of force.

The participating States will likewise refrain from making each other's territory the object of military occupation or other direct or indirect measures of force in contravention of international law, or the object of acquisition by means of such measures or the threat of them. No such occupation or acquisition will be recognized as legal.

Article V. Peaceful settlement of disputes

Spoiler

 

 

The participating States will settle disputes among them by peaceful means in such a manner as not to endanger international peace and security, and justice.

They will endeavour in good faith and a spirit of cooperation to reach a rapid and equitable solution on the basis of international law.

For this purpose they will use such means as negotiation, enquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement or other peaceful means of their own choice including any settlement procedure agreed to in advance of disputes to which they are parties.

In the event of failure to reach a solution by any of the above peaceful means, the parties to a dispute will continue to seek a mutually agreed way to settle the dispute peacefully.

Participating States, parties to a dispute among them, as well as other participating States, will refrain from any action which might aggravate the situation to such a degree as to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security and thereby make a peaceful settlement of the dispute more difficult.

Article VI. Non-intervention in internal affairs

Spoiler

 

 

The participating States will refrain from any intervention, direct or indirect, individual or collective, in the internal or external affairs falling within the domestic jurisdiction of another participating State, regardless of their mutual relations.

They will accordingly refrain from any form of armed intervention or threat of such intervention against another participating State.

They will likewise in all circumstances refrain from any other act of military, or of political, economic or other coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by another participating State of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

Accordingly, they will, inter alia, refrain from direct or indirect assistance to terrorist activities, or to subversive or other activities directed towards the violent overthrow of the regime of another participating State.

The most recent repudiation of the NPT by Putin passed with almost no comment from the talking heads. Perhaps they should take up reading to understand the consequences of the most plentiful store of nuclear weapons walking away from their obligations under the treaty... The first article is bad enough, the second is disturbing, and places Russia and Putin in effect in the arms bazaar "now open" for Al Qaeda and other lawless groups and governments. It should make for a compelling conversation whether a country that has disavowed obligations to not provide nuclear munitions to 3rd countries. That clearly places Russia in the terrorist state listing.. which has been a point of deafening silence since Voldemort's 24th February repudiation. Whereforeartthou O mighty leaders? or more simply, WTF?

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Oops
https://twitter.com/ThinkingOnce/sta...82745939238913

There is a counter argument, that opsec is not hurt by the awareness by the other team that doubles are being employed, that means that intel that arises from any of their informants, (not a new thing, the Romans had their informant in Jerusalem many moons ago...and for far fewer pieces of silver) have less actionable intelligence. Saves on trying to remove the sit com comic that outbids Voldemort and certainly outthinks and outpolls on every turn.

If it worked for Hugo Weaving, why should it not work for Zed?

[tdracer]

Originally Posted by Low average

Hitler managed it. All the way to his bunker in Berlin.

Not really - there were multiple attempts on his life, several by his more capable generals who realized what a disaster this was becoming for Germany.
Further, Hitler had the advantage of total control over the media and the Gestapo to make sure any dissenting voices were quickly silenced. Nothing messy like Twitter and the internet to allow unauthorized information through. Putin has a lot of control, but nothing like the level that Hitler enjoyed.

[Low average]

Originally Posted by tdracer

Not really - there were multiple attempts on his life, several by his more capable generals who realized what a disaster this was becoming for Germany.
Further, Hitler had the advantage of total control over the media and the Gestapo to make sure any dissenting voices were quickly silenced. Nothing messy like Twitter and the internet to allow unauthorized information through. Putin has a lot of control, but nothing like the level that Hitler enjoyed.

All those attempts on his life failed, and the Allies were fought to Berlin. Messy Twitter and the internet is neatly exploited for misinformation.

https://news.sky.com/story/i-was-sho...story-12819546

Hitler 2.0. There are so many similarities, I've no doubt he'll also go the distance.

[tdracer]

Originally Posted by Low average

Hitler 2.0. There are so many similarities, I've no doubt he'll go the distance.

You'd better hope that you're wrong. I have little doubt that if Hitler had access to something like MAD, he would have used it as the walls closed in.

[megan]

I have little doubt that if Hitler had access to something like MAD, he would have used it as the walls closed in

Hitler was mad enough to have wanted it, but I very much doubt his senior officers would have gone along, there was a wish for surrender to take place in some quarters prior to Hitler committing suicide. There were those planning as early as 1938 to get rid of Hitler as they had no wish for another world war. The apparent aim of the bomb assassination attempt was to wrest political control of Germany and its armed forces from the Nazi Party (including the SS) and to make peace with the Western Allies as soon as possible.

[arf23]

surely body bags returning home will at some point sway the Russian public? Or since the Russians seem happy to leave bodies where the lie, sons not returning mobile phone calls and messages will tell the Mums the awful truth...

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Oops



https://twitter.com/ThinkingOnce/sta...82745939238913

that's BS, it's his closest body guard and head of the body guards called Maksim Donets. He's been VZ's shadow ever since the 24th Feb 2022.

you can see him in almost every picture taken of Zelenskyi, here's a perfect example: https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/zelenskyy...sian-invasion/