Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[Sfojimbo]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Situation deteriorating at Bakhmut. On the other hand Russian front line reports are complaining about their level of losses and that Ukraine is pouring in fresh troops.

Exactly, the huge losses for the Russians continue. So Ukraine will keep it going for as long as they can. All they have to evacuate is infantry, all the artillery is positioned to the west.
Once they call for withdrawal (or a stage of the evacuation) the Ukrainians will shore up the shoulders of the salient as they move out.

Considering the Ukrainian HIMARS and the 155s, I suspect Ukraine is winning the artillery duels by a long shot.
If Wagner considers this to be a victory, they are kidding themselves.

[NutLoose]

Ukrainians training on the AS-90

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...03076314906624

Twitter

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Sfojimbo

Exactly, the huge losses for the Russians continue. So Ukraine will keep it going for as long as they can. All they have to evacuate is infantry, all the artillery is positioned to the west.
Once they call for withdrawal (or a stage of the evacuation) the Ukrainians will shore up the shoulders of the salient as they move out.

Considering the Ukrainian HIMARS and the 155s, I suspect Ukraine is winning the artillery duels by a long shot.
If Wagner considers this to be a victory, they are kidding themselves.

it does make you wonder if Ukraine has sufficient defences to fall back on if Bakhmut falls. That has to be a worry.

[PPRuNeUser0211]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

it does make you wonder if Ukraine has sufficient defences to fall back on if Bakhmut falls. That has to be a worry.

They've had about a month to get their ducks in a row, so I can't imagine they're not prepared for the fall.

[Beamr]

It's a tough job but someones got to do it.
Reminder of how things will be evolving for the following couple of months.

Twitter

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...59508925833216

[langleybaston]

I hope Ukr do not consider Bakhmut as "sacred ground, made sacred by sacrifice". This was the mistake at Ypres and Verdun in the Great War.
Better to do an organised Gallipoli withdrawal at night using their superior int. and night vision, mines, claymores, fougasses, boody traps, and then allow the Orcs on to the killing ground, and swamp with HIMARS and artillery.
But first get even the most stubborn and fragile civilian away, if not already done.
Thus both sides cloud claim a local victory, but there would only be one winner.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Total aid ( military/financial/humanitarian ) by country

The following is something I have been hoping to see for some time. The German magazine focus has researched the aid provided in the three categories, and then also broken it down as a % of individial contries GDP. I have had to modify the format to make it clearer to display, and hope that it doesn't get mangled when I load it here.

MILITARY ( 62 Mrd € )

USA 44,34 Mrd. €
Großbritannien 4,89 Mrd. €
Polen 2,43 Mrd. €
Deutschland 2,36 Mrd. €
Kanada 1,29 Mrd. €
Niederlande 0,86 Mrd. €
Frankreich 0,66 Mrd. €
Italien 0,66 Mrd. €
Norwegen 0,59 Mrd. €
Dänemark 0,56 Mrd. €
Schweden 0,55 Mrd. €
Tschechien 0,46 Mrd. €
Australien 0,36 Mrd. €
Estland 0,31 Mrd. €
Lettland 0,29 Mrd. €
Litauen 0,28 Mrd. €
Bulgarien 0,24 Mrd. €
Slowakei 0,22 Mrd. €
Finnland 0,21 Mrd. €
Griechenland 0,18 Mrd. €

FINANCIAL ( 64 Mrd € )


EU (Kommission & Rat) 28,32 Mrd. €
USA 25,11 Mrd. €
Großbritannien 3,02 Mrd. €
Kanada 2,38 Mrd. €
Deutschland 1,3 Mrd. €
Polen 0,96 Mrd. €
Frankreich 0,7 Mrd. €
Japan 0,57 Mrd. €
Niederlande 0,35 Mrd. €
Norwegen 0,32 Mrd. €
Italien 0,31 Mrd. €
Portugal 0,25 Mrd. €
Spanien 0,2 Mrd. €
Schweden 0,15 Mrd. €
Finnland 0,08 Mrd. €
Dänemark 0,06 Mrd. €
Schweiz 0,06 Mrd. €
Österreich 0,03 Mrd. €
Lettland 0,02 Mrd. €
Litauen 0,01 Mrd. €

HUMANITARIAN ( 12 Mrd € )

USA 3,72 Mrd. €
Deutschland 2,5 Mrd. €
EU (Kommission und Rat) 1,6 Mrd. €
Österreich 0,59 Mrd. €
Japan 0,48 Mrd. €
Großbritannien 0,4 Mrd. €
Kanada 0,35 Mrd. €
Frankreich 0,32 Mrd. €
Norwegen 0,32 Mrd. €
Niederlande 0,21 Mrd. €
Schweiz 0,18 Mrd. €
Polen 0,17 Mrd. €
Portugal 0,17 Mrd. €
Tschechien 0,11 Mrd. €
Schweden 0,11 Mrd. €
Dänemark 0,1 Mrd. €
Südkorea 0,1 Mrd. €
Spanien 0,1 Mrd. €
Belgien 0,09 Mrd. €
Australien 0,07 Mrd. €

MILITARY AID AS % GDP

Estland 1,05%
Lettland 0,92%
Litauen 0,52%
Polen 0,43%
Bulgarien 0,36%
USA 0,22%
Slowakei 0,21%
Tschechien 0,20%
Großbritannien 0,19%
Norwegen 0,17%
Dänemark 0,17%
Slowenien 0,11%
Luxemburg 0,11%
Schweden 0,11%
Griechenland 0,10%
Niederlande 0,10%
Kanada 0,08%
Finnland 0,08%
Deutschland 0,06%
Italien 0,04%

HUMANITARIAN AID AS % OF GDP

Österreich 0,14%
Litauen 0,11%
Norwegen 0,09%
Portugal 0,08%
Deutschland 0,07%
Tschechien 0,05%
Ungarn 0,03%
Polen 0,03%
Dänemark 0,03%
Schweiz 0,03%
Niederlande 0,02%
Kanada 0,02%
Schweden 0,02%
Finnland 0,02%
Belgien 0,02%
USA 0,02%
Estland 0,02%
Irland 0,02%
Großbritannien 0,02%
Zypern 0,01%

The lists highlight the major proportional contributions made by the Baltic states: Estonia (Estland ), Lithuania (Litaun )and Latvia (Lettland ) as well as Poland, but also that some countries - Switzerland and Ireland are keeping their hands firmly closed in their pockets for financial and humanitarian aid, when they - as neutral states - are also contributing nothing to military aid. France and Italy also ought to examine their consciences when reviewing the very low level of contributions. The USA obviously dominates the total money list of donors for which we should all be thankful, but when you examine the percentage of GDP, it is not enormous, and, for me, highlights the extent to which this aid really is an excellent investment minimising the need for exorbitantly higher defence expenditure in the future were Russia to prevail.

https://www.focus.de/finanzen/schwer...187057719.html

EDIT: This index shows the % of a country's existing heavy armaments that have been sent/promised to Ukraine The first number is already delivered, second is promised and third is total.

Spoiler

 

 

Tschechien
17,49 %
14,35 %
31,84 %
Norwegen
22,8 %
3,14 %
25,94 %
Großbritannien
11,42 %
14,09 %
25,51 %
Polen
19,3 %
0%
19,3 %
Deutschland
7,31 %
5,32 %
12,63 %
Slowenien
12,82 %
12,82 %
Frankreich
10,13 %
1.67%
11,8 %
Italien
0%
7,59 %
7,59 %
Dänemark
0%
6,67 %
6,67 %
EU-Durchschnitt
4,51 %
6,09 %
Niederlande
4,76 %
0%
4,76 %
Lettland
4,26 %
0%
4,26 %
USA
2.49%
1.39%
3,88 %
Kanada
3,6 %
3,6 %
Portugal



[Beamr]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

The following is something I have been hoping to see for some time. The German magazine focus has researched the aid provided in the three categories, and then also broken it down as a % of individial contries GDP. I have had to modify the format to make it clearer to display, and hope that it doesn't get mangled when I load it here.

That article is a testimony to how fast the aid to Ukraine is evolving: those numbers are already old.

Just to pick a few, military aid per country as of January 2023 (and even these numbers are already old as we are in March)
Estonia: 370M€ (not 310)
Finland 590M€ (not 210)
Sweden 800M€ (not 550)
Belgium 228M€ (Belgium wasn't even mentioned)

[NutLoose]

I would say those figures can be confusing as in Germany / France etc is shown as donating XYZ, but so is the EU which those countries also pay into, so they are in effect paying twice.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

I would say those figures can be confusing as in Germany / France etc is shown as donating XYZ, but so is the EU which those countries also pay into, so they are in effect paying twice.

On balance I would say no. That money has been paid to the EU, so whatever happens they are not seeing it again, whether it goes to Ukraine ( which may use it to buy weapons from those countries ) or is used for industrial development somewhere in the EU. The EU is donating from its pre-existing budget: there has been no special levy to raise cash for Ukraine.

[BANANASBANANAS]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

On balance I would say no. That money has been paid to the EU, so whatever happens they are not seeing it again, whether it goes to Ukraine ( which may use it to buy weapons from those countries ) or is used for industrial development somewhere in the EU. The EU is donating from its pre-existing budget: there has been no special levy to raise cash for Ukraine.

Agreed.

It also looks like Russia is getting China and Belarus to do its diplomatic dirty work for it by having them put together a 'plan for peace in Ukraine' which Russia, no doubt' would 'reluctantly' agree to! It's all a sham and we need to keep supplying Ukraine with whatever they need and want until all Russian forces have been kicked out of all of Ukraine. Then we can talk about the Russian reparations bill!

[jolihokistix]

If you look ahead a little, you can see where this is going.

Russia is fighting hard to preserve a line on the western edge of a thick and delicious slice of Ukraine that they have taken. Looking a bit like the DMZ in Korea, or the Turkish one in north Syria. Or the Berlin wall. (They might just want to go a little further westward to put the railway line out of UA artillery range.)

From the Russian point of view, then, it's all brakes on here, heels dug in, and hold, like in tug-of-war. Until they are ready for the next effort however many years ahead.

Why have they stopped here? They have met an equal and opposite force. A hot force. And stuff is starting to spill back on them.

From a purely selfish point of view, this is the moment to negotiate.

So Western strategists will have a choice of A or B.
A is to follow the Russian scenario, using all the recently-introduced modern weaponry to enforce the Ukrainian side along this new border.
B is to stay out of it and follow Ukrainian wishes to push Russian and Wagnerian troops back to the real, internationally-recognized border of Russia.

Is a C scenario possible, or even more realistic, some kind of compromise between the absolutes of A and B?

[Sfojimbo]

Originally Posted by jolihokistix

you can see where this is going. Russia is fighting hard to preserve a line on the western edge of a thick and delicious slice of Ukraine that they have taken. Looking a bit like the DMZ in Korea, or the Turkish one in north Syria. Or the Berlin wall. (They might just want to go a little further westward to put the railway line out of UA artillery range.) From the Russian point of view, then, it's all brakes on here, heels dug in, and hold, like in tug-of-war. Until they are ready for the next effort however many years ahead.
Why have they stopped here? They have met an equal and opposite force. A hot force. And stuff is starting to spill back on them. From a purely selfish point of view, this is the moment to negotiate. So Western strategists will have a choice of A or B. A is to follow the Russian scenario, using all the recently-introduced modern weaponry to enforce the Ukrainian side along this new border. B is to stay out of it and follow Ukrainian wishes to push Russian and Wagnerian troops back to the real, internationally-recognized border of Russia. Is a C scenario possible?

The Russians won't stop here, if and when Ukraine pulls back from the military obstacle know as Bakhmut, the Orcs will see no major terrain obstacles between there and Kramatorsk and Sloviansk; both of those cities are in Donetsk Oblast which is important to the Russian propaganda machine. (A possible Ukrainian tactic would then be to fall back in mock chaotic retreat in the hopes Russia would overextend itself on a push north, and allow a Ukrainian offensive to encircle that whole salient.)

The more likely way this is going to go will take advantage of the unique geography offered by the coast of the Sea of Azov. If Ukraine can launch a major offensive soon (which I'm sure they can) it will be toward that coast. And they don't have to make it all the way to the coast to put Russia in a very bad situation. If they can make an advance as far as Melitopol, they could cut the single east/west rail and road connection that passes through that city and leave the entire southwestern part of the Russian held territory (including Crimea) dependent on the Kerch Strait bridge and ferryboats for supplies, and I have no doubt that Ukraine can take down a section of that bridge (the east/west rail line that passes through Bakhmut is unimportant). If Ukraine even reaches so far as Melitopol, Russia will have to abandon Crimea and southern Kherson just as they had to withdraw from northern Kherson. A successful Ukrainian offensive to either Mariupol or Berdiansk would achieve the same. I am certain that Ukraine could hold Bakhmut if they chose to, as I am certain that Ukraine has at least a Brigade held in reserve and another in training.

[639]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

The following is something I have been hoping to see for some time. The German magazine focus has researched the aid provided in the three categories, and then also broken it down as a % of individial contries GDP. I have had to modify the format to make it clearer to display, and hope that it doesn't get mangled when I load it here.

Including Promised assets in the same figure instead of separating them in an additional listing clearly shows the bias and intention of the Focus magazine. No surprise its A German Magazine

[ORAC]

If it’s a false flag, it’s a big one…

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1...HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

BREAKING: Reports that a Ukrainian DRG group has entered Bryansk oblast, Russia. Russian media is reporting that hostages have been taken and that a fire fight has ensued.…

BAZA reports that Ukrainian soldiers have captured inhabitants in the village of Sushany. Explosions and gunfire is heard….

Electric substation and a gas station has been blown up in Sushany, Bryansk region — Baza…

​​​​​​​To summarize what Russian media is saying about what is happening in Bryansk region.

- 40/50 Ukrainian DRG/saboteurs involved
- Entered two villages
- Multiple wounded and killed
- Hostages taken
- Heavy battles ongoing

[NutLoose]

It would however give them an excuse about it being on Russian territory etc, but where is the strategic value in some minor village? if Ukraine was going to do this they would hit a target of importance.

[Sfojimbo]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Reports that a Ukrainian DRG group has entered Bryansk oblast, Russia.

A border clash of the North Korean style?
It is kinda surprising that the long border has been so quiet all these months.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by 639

Including Promised assets in the same figure instead of separating them in an additional listing clearly shows the bias and intention of the Focus magazine.
No surprise its A German Magazine

Have you understood the split ? I wrote " The first number is already delivered, second is promised and third is total." so the promised assets are clearly separated. Below is an example

Tschechien
17,49 % = Already delivered
14,35 % = Promised
31,84 % = Total

Originally Posted by 639

No surprise its A German Magazine

A strange comment - what do you wish to say ?

[Tu.114]

(Off topic)
The word that seems to be missing here is Pars pro Toto - a common thing in many languages and not nearly loaded with evil intent.

(On topic)

Is the Ukraine Interactive Map known to the estimated readers on here? It shows things from an Ukrainian perspective, front lines are not necessarily exactly current for obvious reasons, but I find it an useful tool to quickly locate things that may have been on the news, being not that intimately familiar with Ukrainian geography.

[ORAC]

Perhaps it was a false flag and the reason is starting to emerge….

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1...HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

​​​​​​​Former Putin adviser Sergei Markov says: In response to the attack on the Bryansk region we need to take the initiative and move from the "special military operation" to a full-fledged war against the terrorist regime that has occupied Ukraine.…