Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Effectively they are the proud descendants of Ghengis Khan, their existence is defined by continuous conquest. As the head of RT.com said this week, what is wrong with rebuilding their Empire?
Onwards.
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They twist the knife very well!
Like the old slogan from the former German Democratic Republic: Overtaking without catching up.
And I sincerely hope no 'Western' Politician is so stupid to stop supplying. No matter how long it takes. Looking at the current state in Russia, even getting rid of Putin won't solve the problem for good. It is not only Putin who has these evil ideas of Empire and conquering. Their capability and their possibility to re- arm must be degraded to a state where they don't have the chance to give it another try in the next 40-50 Years. Dependency on Russian Energy has been reduced in a sustainable way. Keep the supply to Ukraine up until Russia has lost its very last Tank, Missile and Fighter Aircraft. Keep Sanctions up so they can't buy the components to build new stuff.
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henra … I like the concept, but somehow I wonder if it is really achievable. RU has the dictators and the resources to achieve much, disregarding the nuclear options.
Russia doesn't have the industrial base or people to achieve much at all. Its got 10% of the aerospace engineers of the Soviet Union and most of them are old enough to have learnt their trade during that time.
On the other hand most people thought the Russian Military was a peer competitor to Western forces. I suggest that the Russian manufacturing base is working on mostly prewar stocks and will ultimately prove as a hollow a capability as the Army. The side with the better logistics wins, always; and so far there is no doubt who has logistics sorted and who doesn't.......
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I do recall the Soviet air threat to UK that we were modelling. After the collapse we discovered we were wrong by a factor if about 5. Let’s hope the same applies going forward.
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On the other hand most people thought the Russian Military was a peer competitor to Western forces. I suggest that the Russian manufacturing base is working on mostly prewar stocks and will ultimately prove as a hollow a capability as the Army. The side with the better logistics wins, always; and so far there is no doubt who has logistics sorted and who doesn't.......
If they are prepared to put the Kuznetsov out to sea eventually, it must follow that the rest of the stuff is of a similar standard. Yes, there are more modern ships out, but the philosophy of "get it floating and crew it with conscripts, criminals or similar untrained, unskilled and mutinous orks" - possibly with the exception of the submarine service, is probably nearer to the actual state.
IG
Wasn't (isn't) a big problem with their naval stuff the fact that prior to 2014 when they annexed Crimea, they were heavily reliant on Ukraine shipyards for a lot of the design and build of their naval assets...?
ORAC linked to:
Defence spending in the UK will have to rise, whether we like it or not. In an era of prolonged peace, we have become used to spending just 2 per cent of GDP on defence. In 1956 it was 8 per cent. We now effectively have to arm both ourselves and Ukraine. In that sober context, the fashionable frothy talk of tax cuts in Westminster is just that, froth. Low and competitive taxes are to be encouraged, but Rishi Sunak knows he cannot rearm our forces on the cheap.
Defence spending in the UK will have to rise, whether we like it or not. In an era of prolonged peace, we have become used to spending just 2 per cent of GDP on defence. In 1956 it was 8 per cent. We now effectively have to arm both ourselves and Ukraine. In that sober context, the fashionable frothy talk of tax cuts in Westminster is just that, froth. Low and competitive taxes are to be encouraged, but Rishi Sunak knows he cannot rearm our forces on the cheap.
ORAC posted:
Igor Girkin says Russia needs a Chinese "lend-lease" if it’s to continue fighting in Ukraine "with any level of success." He complains that Russian generals led by the "cretin" Gerasimov are burning through armour at a rate that Russian defence plants can’t withstand…
Igor Girkin says Russia needs a Chinese "lend-lease" if it’s to continue fighting in Ukraine "with any level of success." He complains that Russian generals led by the "cretin" Gerasimov are burning through armour at a rate that Russian defence plants can’t withstand…
In 2023, if one expects to fight a conventional war and win, one had better have at least $/£/€ 3 trillion (in honest accounting) set aside. Maybe 25% more if the total will require loans at interest.
Otherwise, just spend $/£/€ 100 on a couple of dozen white flags, and call it a day.
Anything else is fantasy, regardless of whether your initials are UK, EU, RF, PRC or USA.
(For the record, I abhor war, and think the last 2 1/2 major US wars were idiocy, and partly failed because we tried to do them on the cheap. (I cut a little slack on Afghanistan - we were actually attacked, and I do always remember NATO lived up to its commitment.))
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In 2023, if one expects to fight a conventional war and win, one had better have at least $/£/€ 3 trillion (in honest accounting) set aside. Maybe 25% more if the total will require loans at interest.
If true, where are the Orcs going to find that money?
If true, where are the Orcs going to find that money?
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And I sincerely hope no 'Western' Politician is so stupid to stop supplying. No matter how long it takes. Looking at the current state in Russia, even getting rid of Putin won't solve the problem for good. It is not only Putin who has these evil ideas of Empire and conquering. Their capability and their possibility to re- arm must be degraded to a state where they don't have the chance to give it another try in the next 40-50 Years. Dependency on Russian Energy has been reduced in a sustainable way. Keep the supply to Ukraine up until Russia has lost its very last Tank, Missile and Fighter Aircraft. Keep Sanctions up so they can't buy the components to build new stuff.
And I sincerely hope no 'Western' Politician is so stupid to stop supplying. No matter how long it takes. Looking at the current state in Russia, even getting rid of Putin won't solve the problem for good. It is not only Putin who has these evil ideas of Empire and conquering. Their capability and their possibility to re- arm must be degraded to a state where they don't have the chance to give it another try in the next 40-50 Years. Dependency on Russian Energy has been reduced in a sustainable way. Keep the supply to Ukraine up until Russia has lost its very last Tank, Missile and Fighter Aircraft. Keep Sanctions up so they can't buy the components to build new stuff.
Granted the provision of a new type FJ, with the need for training and logistics support, may require too much time to field the F16s. So, what about providing the FJ types the UKR already has been flying? And why not now?
Ukraine does not have an unlimited supply of troops, they are not well situated for a war of attrition, and they lose too troops many every day. Let’s supply UKR so as to gain victory in the shortest possible time with minimal loss of life! Why stretch this war out?
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I’m curious about the military advice Pres Biden referred to when ruling out F16s for UKR. I know of no USA armored forces general who want to employ his/her forces without air superiority and CAS. How can this time, with the rather meager provision of tanks and the large buildup of Russian forces at the border, be the time when F16s are not needed?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Western intel tells us that Russia has 1,300 fighter type aircraft available. I suspect that the DoD believes that challenging Russia for air superiority is a lost cause and it is best to stick with the current practice of using SAMs etc to limit Russia's air force activities. That's beside the fact that the F-16 is the wrong plane for the job.
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