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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 22nd Feb 2023, 00:42
  #14801 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
It is being reported on CNN that the USSR tested an ICBM while Biden was in Ukraine and just like their military, it failed.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/21/p...est/index.html

Two more Oligarchs and their families die early.

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world...l_topeditorial
Sort of aviation content: The CNN story credits the SARMAT missile with a payload of '100 tons'; this seems ... excessive. Other sources suggest 10 tonnes is more accurate.
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 07:31
  #14802 (permalink)  
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Good update, nice to see Jomini back.

1/ Ukraine TVD, 8-19 FEB 23. The past 2 weeks of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive intensify as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. Russian made few gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold..

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...768273922.html
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 07:43
  #14803 (permalink)  
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The conversations related to Moldova seem to be getting interesting... is it possible that Count d' Money is loopy enough to invade Moldova to get his winning run on the board, so he gets his xmas bonus for his x'lent adventure? It would involve breaching Moldovan sovereignty, and probably Ukraine, while studiously avoiding Romania (for now). It will add some turf, Moldova itself is poorly defended and needs to pipe up pretty quickly to get some protection from external aggression, The impact to Ukraine having a threat on both sides would hardly be able to be ignored, and Romania isn't going to be amused by being spooned by a criminal sociopath.

The resignation of the PM of Moldova is a wild card that affects Ukraine, and by association all of Europe.

If China starts supplying ammo and gear to Russia, they will not be getting an xmas card from me, and I will be more than happy to boycott any Chinese sourced goods or western companies that source from China, irrespective of the inconvenience that may cause. China's economy is on a knife edge, and loosing it's principal markets will disenfranchise the nouveau middle class, and that would redefine the term bad day for Xi.

Time for a 16th floor evac for the Tsar.

The descent from the 16th to pavement pizza is not aviation content per se, it's more of one of Newton's things happening. The aviation content is, Red team get to probably use air assets to make an Entebbe raid with the panache of Vlad's team of cannon fodder.
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 07:46
  #14804 (permalink)  
 
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If you cease trading with China, Jeff will not be pleased.

IG
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 08:14
  #14805 (permalink)  
 
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I may be thick, but I am struggling to figure out how exactly are the Russkies supposed to take any extra footprint in Moldova as it is surrounded by Ukraine and Romania.
Those 2k troops in Transnistria that have been trapped there for a full year now aren't going to be able to do anything and via land there will be no troop movements by the Z-team. Aerial assault is out of the question as Ukraine will have rather significant defences on the coast and around Odessa happily shooting down with no regrets any Russian troop transport coming anywhere near its territory.

Regarding Romania I believe I do not have to start explaining the reason...
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 09:30
  #14806 (permalink)  
 
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Just close both borders to Transnitria and let them eat their stored ammo.
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 09:57
  #14807 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Beamr
I may be thick, but I am struggling to figure out how exactly are the Russkies supposed to take any extra footprint in Moldova as it is surrounded by Ukraine and Romania.
Those 2k troops in Transnistria that have been trapped there for a full year now aren't going to be able to do anything and via land there will be no troop movements by the Z-team. Aerial assault is out of the question as Ukraine will have rather significant defences on the coast and around Odessa happily shooting down with no regrets any Russian troop transport coming anywhere near its territory.

Regarding Romania I believe I do not have to start explaining the reason...
"illogic has a quality all of its own.." to rephrase that shining light of human kindness, Loseb Besairionus dze Jughashvili.

If logic ruled the Crimlin, life would be a lot less interesting.


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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 11:18
  #14808 (permalink)  
 
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Interview with Oleksiy Reznikov

It is quite a long read, but google page translate works well enough.

There are some interesting nuggets and hints in there that I did not see reported elsewhere.

https://babel.ua/texts/90710-ministr...yem-reznikovim
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 14:45
  #14809 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
It would involve breaching Moldovan sovereignty, and probably Ukraine
They did the latter about a year ago, or maybe back in 2014.
It will add some turf, Moldova itself is poorly defended and needs to pipe up pretty quickly to get some protection from external aggression,
The recent resignation of the head of government makes one wonder what message will be sent, if any.
The resignation of the PM of Moldova is a wild card that affects Ukraine, and by association all of Europe.
As above: who will fill that gap?
If China starts supplying ammo and gear to Russia,
It begins to look like the Spanish Civil War, to me.
The descent from the 16th to pavement pizza is not aviation content per se, it's more of one of Newton's things happening.
The aviation content is, Red team get to probably use air assets to make an Entebbe raid with the panache of Vlad's team of cannon fodder.
Into Moldava, perhaps, to insert a leadership team like the attempt in various books and movies vis a vis 60's and 70's Africa. (Dogs of War, Wild Geese). Roger Moore played the pilot who flew the Dakota in the latter movie. <= aviation content!
Originally Posted by NutLoose
Just close both borders to Transnitria and let them eat their stored ammo.
Nutty, that got a chuckle out of me. Would the Russians then try to re-enact the Berlin Airlift, but into Chișinău? <== Aviation Content!
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 15:37
  #14810 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Imagegear
If you cease trading with China, Jeff will not be pleased.

IG
We can't cease trading with China. Pretty much everything comes from there. Don't believe me just check out all the stuff you own. Bet you the majority is from China.
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 16:05
  #14811 (permalink)  
 
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...especially the cups, saucers and plates etc

Ventral [and indeed dorsal] turrets might have made aircrew feel safer but came with a whole sack of problems .......... extra weight, limited visibility, shooting down friendlies to name but a few


And until the Americans supplied electrically driven turrets, they were powered hydraulically ... with highly flammable hydraulic fluid, which is almost too frightening to contemplate
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 16:14
  #14812 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Sue VÍtements
...especially the cups, saucers and plates etc



And until the Americans supplied electrically driven turrets, they were powered hydraulically ... with highly flammable hydraulic fluid, which is almost too frightening to contemplate
I don't think you can claim friendly fire is a symptom of technology and as for hydraulic fluid being dangerous, not as dangerous as sitting in a Lancaster and being hit in the bomb bay.
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 16:35
  #14813 (permalink)  
 
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Transnistria? I'd bet the Romanians could take it out in a week.
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 17:13
  #14814 (permalink)  
 
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Who knows, maybe the Chinese could be in Moscow to "suggest" to Putin that he calms things down for his own sake!
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 17:54
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Originally Posted by uxb99
I don't think you can claim friendly fire is a symptom of technology and as for hydraulic fluid being dangerous, not as dangerous as sitting in a Lancaster and being hit in the bomb bay.
Ventral turrets in particular had a bad press. The ball turret of a B17 needed a heroic dwarf apart from anything else.

History suggests that, as fast as they were provided in several types, they were deleted or disused.
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 17:56
  #14816 (permalink)  
 
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Transnistria? I'd bet the Romanians could take it out in a week.
Via Moldova? Moldova has almost zero capability (spent a bit of time there for my sins) - there isn't much in Transnistria either, doubt the "Sheriff" Organisation will put up much of a fight.
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 18:04
  #14817 (permalink)  
 
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There's boll*cks and then there's BOLL*CKS

D Tel: today according to a Western Official,

But Ukraineís death to wounded ratio is significantly lower than for the Russians, which is about three wounded to one dead. The Ukrainian figure is between 10 or 20 to one.

[historical ratio is typically 3 wounded/ captured/ deserte/ ill/ PoW to one dead]
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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 18:51
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The contracts of these Wagnerites have been terminated.


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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 18:58
  #14819 (permalink)  
 
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100% hit rate sounds astonishing.
However, acceptable. Would be interested in seeing Russian jets downed with it.


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Old 22nd Feb 2023, 19:27
  #14820 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting post about one of the ways the Czechs are assisting Ukraine.

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