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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 27th Jan 2023, 21:42
  #14061 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
My best guess,

One assumes the road may be an important arterial route, possibly into a city or for resupply…
My best guess too. Looks like mortar fire rather than artillery. Mortars are not very accurate, even with a spotter. Buggering up supply routes is generally a bloody good tactic. The BMP occupants may have got out OK. Doubt they will be fit to fight for a while. They most likely won't be keen to take that route again.
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Old 27th Jan 2023, 22:21
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Still I only offer an opinion, but the situation is moving so fast at the moment who knows how things will pan out. I have been watching John Mearsheimer's (of the Uni of Chicago) contributions on YouTube and I do recommend these, they have helped me make sense of things in a wider geopolitical context, whether you agree with him or not he is a very able and thoughtful analyst.

I was once offered some advice by a former US Ambassador to Uzbekistan with whom shared much Vodka one night in the (old) Tashkent Intercontinental bar, telling me he'd worked in around 20 countries during his long career and his advice "Basically flash, everywhere I have lived and worked worldwide you can roughly count on 90% of folk to be decent and 10% not so good" - have always taken this simple maxim as gospel since )
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Old 27th Jan 2023, 22:22
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Russia under Yeltsin was an utter shambles. Vlad got it working again for ordinary Russians (with extras for the oligarchs) and earned a measure of gratitude / support through results, propaganda and suppression of dissent.

It amazes me even more every day that mothers are not marching in the streets as they did with a now single digit percentage of the losses in Afghanistan. Vlad is demonstrating extraordinary skills in controlling the public narrative.
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Old 27th Jan 2023, 22:31
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Originally Posted by flash8
I have been watching John Mearsheimer's (of the Uni of Chicago) contributions on YouTube and I do recommend these, they have helped me make sense of things in a wider geopolitical context, whether you agree with him or not he is a very able and thoughtful analyst.
Mearsheimer believes that the US (and the rest of NATO) created a problem when they allowed eastern expansion of NATO. I don't have a direct quote of his, but I believe he holds the west responsible for driving Russia to invade Ukraine. His arguments strike me as being naive and show a lack of understanding of Russian history and world outlook.

Do you share his views?
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Old 27th Jan 2023, 22:33
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
Russia under Yeltsin was an utter shambles. Vlad got it working again for ordinary Russians (with extras for the oligarchs) and earned a measure of gratitude / support through results, propaganda and suppression of dissent.
.
I totally agree with this sentiment, but I'd go further and say that measure of gratitude is still very considerable. Many credit him with "Saving Russia" (not my words but I can see where they come from, from a Moscow perspective 1999 and 2001 were like night and day).
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Old 27th Jan 2023, 22:36
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Originally Posted by flash8
I guess things can get heated in JB, Confusious! Still I only offer an opinion ) But the situation is moving so fast at the moment who knows how things will pan out. I have been watching John Mearsheimer's (of the Uni of Chicago) contributions on YouTube and I do recommend these, they have helped me make sense of things in a wider geopolitical context, whether you agree with him or not he is a very able and thoughtful analyst.

I was once offered some advice by a former US Ambassador to Uzbekistan with whom shared much Vodka one night in the (old) Tashkent Intercontinental bar, telling me he'd worked in around 20 countries during his long career and his advice "Basically flash, everywhere I have lived and worked worldwide you can roughly count on 90% of folk to be decent and 10% not so good" - have always taken this simple maxim as gospel since )
Yes indeed, and I offer my apologies once again for the harshness of my words. I too try to absorb as much as practically possible from a cross section of sources, so will definitely watch some of those videos.

Agree with the notion of a 90/10 good/bad ratio, seems pretty true to life.

Back to the thread meaning and content.
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Old 27th Jan 2023, 22:41
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Originally Posted by flash8
I was once offered some advice by a former US Ambassador to Uzbekistan with whom shared much Vodka one night in the (old) Tashkent Intercontinental bar, telling me he'd worked in around 20 countries during his long career and his advice "Basically flash, everywhere I have lived and worked worldwide you can roughly count on 90% of folk to be decent and 10% not so good" - have always taken this simple maxim as gospel since )
I am glad to see you posting.
On the Mil side, as this is the Mil Av forum and not JB:

Are the Russians going to try to make a move before General Mud rears his soppy head?
There was some talk last year when the 24 Feb invasion kicked off that they had waited a few weeks too many to launch and had some trouble with off-road movement.
I will make a few guesses under the assumption of a few lessons being learned.

a. They will try to better coordinate their air and EW arms to support ground operations.
(RUSI article a few months back on how they got a bit in each others way during the opening weeks last year).
b. Limited objectives, then dig in.
c. Use Belarus as privileged sanctuary for selected air operations.

And these guesses might be wrong.
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Old 27th Jan 2023, 23:43
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
Nice piece of Russian hypocrisy here - the German's use a tungsten penetrator rod as standard# while they use DU rounds on T-64, T-72, T-80, and T-90.

# - they can also fire DU rounds as used by the US/French if supplied
Plus there is that little matter that depleted uranium isn't radioactive to any meaningful degree. It's highly toxic (as are many heavy metals), but hardly radioactively 'dirty'.
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Old 27th Jan 2023, 23:54
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
I am glad to see you posting.
On the Mil side, as this is the Mil Av forum and not JB
Thanks Lone, and oh dear, I don't wander here often. I think it must be the new front page of popular threads and I clicked assuming it was a JB topic!

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Old 27th Jan 2023, 23:57
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Originally Posted by flash8
Oh dear, I don't wonder here often. I think it must be the new front page of popular threads and I clicked assuming it was a JB topic!
I'm still curious whether you share Mearsheimer's views.
It might make interesting discussion if you were to respond.

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Old 28th Jan 2023, 02:28
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Originally Posted by flash8
Spoke to colleagues/friends in Moscow... I had to leave unfortunately and live in exile... in style as you might expect.
The current sentiment amongst all, young and old, is a hardening not so much against Ukraine, but the West... we are seeing the emergence of real antagonism here, bit worried where this will go to be honest. The dislike of the West is overshadowing everything.
Genuinely surprised though even after 20 years in Moscow that the tide turned so fast.
To me, this reads like Russian propaganda; it strikes me as an appeal to fear.
I am surprised that the one other person to challenge this post had all their posts removed.
It seems that you've learned how to manipulate the old boys.

BTW
The fact that you chose not to respond to my query about your views on Mearsheimer's message is interesting in itself.

I won't call for your posts to be taken down, but I do wish you'd be a little more upfront about what you're doing here.
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Old 28th Jan 2023, 04:50
  #14072 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
Russia under Yeltsin was an utter shambles. Vlad got it working again for ordinary Russians (with extras for the oligarchs) and earned a measure of gratitude / support through results, propaganda and suppression of dissent.

It amazes me even more every day that mothers are not marching in the streets as they did with a now single digit percentage of the losses in Afghanistan. Vlad is demonstrating extraordinary skills in controlling the public narrative.
Hitler did something very similar in Germany. Didn't end well.
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Old 28th Jan 2023, 06:53
  #14073 (permalink)  
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T-72 ammunition explosions, a statistical analysis.

A thread 1/n.

A) Conclusion
B) Results
C) Methodology and selection of data
D) Detailed statistics
E) Basic facts T72 and T62
F) Images of the individual tanks (ammo explosion)

CONCLUSION

Compared to the old T-62, the most modern T-72B3 Obr 2016 is 3,5 times more likely to have a catastrophic ammunition explosion. This is in a war where both tank models are exposed to the same enemy weapons and tactics and are in the same environment.

​​​​​​​The statistical analysis strongly suggests that the T-72 tank family has a severe design flaw that results in high combat losses for both tanks and crews.
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Old 28th Jan 2023, 07:13
  #14074 (permalink)  
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Upgraded T-72Bs on a train somewhere in Ru. These aren’t T-72B3 Obr. 2022 (last photo), these have no Sosna-U or DVE-BS crosswind sensor. Instead, they have a 1PN96MT-02 thermal sight. These T-72s are probably better called a T-72B1 Obr. 2022 (or 2023), though that’s not official



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Old 28th Jan 2023, 07:49
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Those T72B Obr 2023's have incredible amount of ERA on them! Side skirts, turret etc, it appears as if it has double layer at some parts. Even smoke launchers (although I can't see the point)
Should be interesting to see what is the actual effectiveness if all that.
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Old 28th Jan 2023, 08:49
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Those T72B Obr 2023's have incredible amount of ERA on them! Side skirts, turret etc, it appears as if it has double layer at some parts. Even smoke launchers (although I can't see the point)
Should be interesting to see what is the actual effectiveness if all that.
Might be fake ERA. There was a video from last year with Russian crew complaining that their ERA just had wood inside. Cost cutting or fraud most probably.
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Old 28th Jan 2023, 10:03
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To get somewhat back to the aviation angle I was wondering but the very likely delivery of occidental aircraft to the Ukrainian AF (apparently the F-16 would be their first choice).

How long / difficult would it be to train Ukrainian pilots on those (I guess it is most likely already happening but how much time / effort would it get to have them actually competently operate) ? And, probably as much important if not more, what about all the support infrastructure ? Not only maintenance but a modern & efficient AF is an integrated technology project. IMHO having the pilots familiarised with the type is just a small part of the whole project.

Obviously not asking for specifics or possibly classified information but just a broad assessment.
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Old 28th Jan 2023, 11:35
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800!


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Old 28th Jan 2023, 13:51
  #14079 (permalink)  
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You knew it was coming - after they’ve destroyed 500% of the HIMARS already…..

Gotta love the Russian bloggers.

ATTENTION!! The first Abrams tank is destroyed in Bakhmut!! 😂🤡



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Old 28th Jan 2023, 14:30
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Originally Posted by atakacs
To get somewhat back to the aviation angle I was wondering but the very likely delivery of occidental aircraft to the Ukrainian AF (apparently the F-16 would be their first choice).

How long / difficult would it be to train Ukrainian pilots on those (I guess it is most likely already happening but how much time / effort would it get to have them actually competently operate) ? And, probably as much important if not more, what about all the support infrastructure ? Not only maintenance but a modern & efficient AF is an integrated technology project. IMHO having the pilots familiarised with the type is just a small part of the whole project.

Obviously not asking for specifics or possibly classified information but just a broad assessment.
I have no expertise on this, but f-16 is the obvious choice in terms of europe logistics and available units. What I have seen is a lot of are reports that F-16 needs a really smooth strip, which Ukraine probably has not got any of any more.
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