Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[FUMR]

Just to say thanks for your reply Nutty.

[RAFEngO74to09]

#FreeTheLeopards is now an ongoing hashtag on Twitter with some amusing memes. A decision may be forthcoming at the next NATO Meeting at Ramstein on 20 Jan 23. It will be interesting to see if some nations willing to send Leopards eg Poland put pressure on the OEM country Germany.

Meanwhile

(1) Benjamin Tallis 🇺🇦 on Twitter: "Desperate to be in #Ukraine, where they belong, & frustrated by how long it’s taking to #FreeTheLeopards 🇩🇪#tanks are taking matters into their own hands - a Leopard2A6 & a Bergepanzer 3 broke loose in Gutersloh … /S - seriously though, how long can this farce go on? https://t.co/CbC8206Y84" / Twitter

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

https://twitter.com/NATOFact/status/1612181057188827138

Originally Posted by FUMR

Any further info on this?

What's the matter with you? Don't you trust unsubstantiated posts on Twitter ?

[FUMR]

I don't trust anything about anything anymore!!! All I need now is to be told that Father Christmas doesn't exist!

Apologies to the mods for being off topic but I had to reply!

Back on track now.

[ORAC]

From multiple sources - presumption being a full declaration of war and mobilisation and warnings to other European nations that the6 risk attack if they continue to “interfere”.

Russian telegram channel: Tomorrow the "special military operation" will officially end.

Together with:

#BREAKING Russian president Vladimir Putin has submitted to the Duma a bill on the termination of international treaties of the Council of Europe with respect to the Russian Federation

[_Agrajag_]

Originally Posted by ORAC

From multiple sources - presumption being a full declaration of war and mobilisation and warnings to other European nations that the6 risk attack if they continue to “interfere”.

Russian telegram channel: Tomorrow the "special military operation" will officially end.

Together with:

#BREAKING Russian president Vladimir Putin has submitted to the Duma a bill on the termination of international treaties of the Council of Europe with respect to the Russian Federation

I don't think Putin had much choice in this. Most of the world has recognised his "special military operation" for what it really is for months. Putin declared war against Ukraine on 24th February 2022. He might have tried to hide behind subterfuge, but even his own media channels have been referring to the war as a war in the past few weeks.

The latter is a glimmer of hope for Ukraine. Putin had managed to lock down the language used in Russian media. He made it a criminal offence to refer to the "special military operation" as war. Russians have been fined and imprisoned for just mentioning the war. Reminiscent of the farcical Basil Fawlty if it wasn't so deadly serious.

This may be an indication that Putin is getting desperate at home. We don't know the extent of anti-war feeling in Russia. What little we do know indicates that some Russians, perhaps a growing number, are not happy at what their leader is doing in their name.

My money is on Russian mothers being a significant influence. They were with the war in Afghanistan, there are signs they are beginning to speak out about this war. One can only hope that the Russian people do as they have done in the past, and overthrow their despotic leader. Personally I would like to see a re-run of the October Revolution, but with Putin and his cronies as the targets.

[RatherBeFlying]

#BREAKING Russian president Vladimir Putin has submitted to the Duma a bill on the termination of international treaties of the Council of Europe with respect to the Russian Federation

Vlad started with the security guarantees that Russia provided when Ukraine gave up its nukes – rendering worthless anything Russia has or will ever put on paper.

​​​​​​Back in WWI both the Tsar and Kaiser were toppled. The emergent regimes were not an improvement.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by ORAC

From multiple sources - presumption being a full declaration of war and mobilisation and warnings to other European nations that the6 risk attack if they continue to “interfere”.

Russian telegram channel: Tomorrow the "special military operation" will officially end.

Together with:

#BREAKING Russian president Vladimir Putin has submitted to the Duma a bill on the termination of international treaties of the Council of Europe with respect to the Russian Federation

Doesn’t that change the rules of engagement for Russia re Mobilisation and the use of conscripts by declaring war, it also cuts through red tape as to converting the industrial base to a war production one?

[DaveReidUK]

Would a de facto declaration of war affect Ukraine's freedom to strike (military) targets inside Russia?

[Big Pistons Forever]

I don’t think the comparison with how Afghanistan ended are particularly useful for the present conflict. Afghanistan was far away, Ukraine is on the Russian border and I think people are underestimating the power of how the message that Russia is under attack by the West resonates with the average Russian.

Putin has been effective at managing the messaging within Russia and it seems the war still has the support of a majority of Russians.

I think Putin realizes he is now at the go big or go home stage of the conflict. The longer this conflict drags on the more fraught his position becomes. This summer will IMO be decisive.

[Sfojimbo]

Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever

people are underestimating the power of how the message that Russia is under attack by the West resonates with the average Russian.

This is the crux of the problem in knowing where the future of this war is headed.
There is no way to get realistic information on the attitude of the Russian people, one can only guess.

The best hope for this war ending on anything like favorable terms for Ukraine depends on the Russian people rejecting Putin's war.

[_Agrajag_]

Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever

I don’t think the comparison with how Afghanistan ended are particularly useful for the present conflict. Afghanistan was far away, Ukraine is on the Russian border and I think people are underestimating the power of how the message that Russia is under attack by the West resonates with the average Russian.

Putin has been effective at managing the messaging within Russia and it seems the war still has the support of a majority of Russians.

I think Putin realizes he is now at the go big or go home stage of the conflict. The longer this conflict drags on the more fraught his position becomes. This summer will IMO be decisive.

The comparison with Afghanistan was purely related to the power that Russian mothers had. The number of 200s and 300s coming back caused them to lobby the the government effectively, even then, during the Soviet era. There are signs that the same is happening now. Hard to cover up tens of thousands of dead soldiers, and many more seriously injured ones. Propaganda can only go so far. For as long as Putin was mostly using soldiers from the non-Rus' parts of the RF he could get away with pretending the deaths and injuries weren't happening.

There will come a point where it will be the children of mothers in Moscow and St Petersburg that are being killed and injured. When that point is reached even Putin will struggle to keep things under wraps within Russia. Coupled with the close ties between many ethnic Russian and Ukrainian families Putin is not going to be able to control the narrative within Russia forever.

Sooner or later those that are vying to be Putin's successor will start to look at how they can take advantage of the situation to further their own agenda. I doubt that the threat to Putin comes from the obvious opposition, Navalny etc. It seems more likely that the threat will come from within. Putin's actions in invading Ukraine have pissed off a lot of influential and rich Russians. My prediction is that they will directly, or most likely indirectly, engineer his downfall. The problem for Ukraine, and the West in general, is knowing what such a coup might produce. There seems a good chance that turmoil in Russia could pose a greater threat than Putin.

[uxb99]

Originally Posted by Sfojimbo

This is the crux of the problem in knowing where the future of this war is headed.
There is no way to get realistic information on the attitude of the Russian people.

I can understand older Russians believing what they are told but I don't believe younger Russians do. If information is restricted the younger generation must detect that. They must have other avenues of getting information via social media.
I can't believe an entire (younger) nation buys into the lack of information being normal. If they do that's sad in itself. It's the younger generation's that put the brakes on us stupid old folk. Plenty of examples of that from Vietnam to Global Warming.
An entire country that believes the opposite to reality is in itself quite frightening.

[langleybaston]

[QUOTE=Sfojimbo;11368286]
There is no way to get realistic information on the attitude of the Russian people, one can only guess.

Have we closed our Embassy? Whetehr acknowledged or not,, information gathering is part of the job.

[Sfojimbo]

[QUOTE=langleybaston;11368341]

Originally Posted by Sfojimbo

There is no way to get realistic information on the attitude of the Russian people, one can only guess.

Have we closed our Embassy? Whetehr acknowledged or not,, information gathering is part of the job.

Our Embassy is in Moscow with a consulate here or there I suppose, but how would they (or the CIA) get information on the attitude of the bulk of the people, especially people out in the hinterland? Polls and surveys are not possible and afik most Russian people are closed mouthed about political beliefs that run counter to to the hierarchy. The most anyone can do is guess, and probably look for support of their own confirmation bias.

[Beamr]

Regarding the Russkies establishing new divisions by the Finnish border and increasing the military to 1,5 million men

They had me there for a while but then Shoigu burst the bubble

"Shoigu said that the changes are planned to take place over the next three years and would require all his deputies, commanders-in-chief of the branches of the armed forces and commanders "to make appropriate competent decisions."

Yep, not going to happen.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-finl...shoigu-1774342

[fdr]

Originally Posted by DaveReidUK

Would a de facto declaration of war affect Ukraine's freedom to strike (military) targets inside Russia?

It would require all aiding Russia to be considered to be involved in the war, might be less than desirable to Iran, sure puts China in a bind on doing anything with Russia, same for India...

Time to crowdfund babushka's makarov ammo supply... Putin is well past his use by date.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

All i can find is they are working on the artillery hitting Kherson so must have hit a dump.


Watch Kids should not play with fire

What a bunch of muppets.




https://twitter.com/KimJongMoon20/st...05940778844163

Golly!

Have a new safety video for the next Recurrents. Pretty sure the guys were smoking at the top of the hill before throwing aged ordnance down a rocky slope.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Something big went bang in occupied Kherson region.



https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...DU5f3L4OksAAAA

Mushroom season is early this year

[fdr]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Ohh dear, never mind.. So much for the all singing, all dancing T90M



https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1614923352162074627

Russian tank factories couple be better served producing Webber BBQ's, they have part of the design sorted.