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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 18th Jan 2023, 17:29
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Originally Posted by ORAC
BREAKING: The US is expected to announce one of its largest military aid packages for Ukraine in the coming days, according to two US officials - CNN

No further details on what weaponry will be included.


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Combining with the anticipated JEF+Poland MBT's for a brigade announcement it would be very helpful if US would provide more long range weaponry eg self propelled artillery and MLRS with IFV/APC/other vehicles. A mech brigade needs a lot of those as well.
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Old 18th Jan 2023, 17:30
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Serbia distancing itself from Russia….

"For us, Crimea is Ukraine, Donbas is Ukraine — and it’ll remain so", Serbia's president Vucic says.

​​​​​​​https://t.co/kzI963lHPA
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Old 18th Jan 2023, 18:04
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I remember some decades ago being in Germany, and seeing signs as one crossed various bridges.
I asked an Army friend about thatm.
He told me that the number was an indication of how heavy of a vehicle could go cross it.
His follow up was along the lines of "... this has to do with all of the tanks rumbling around in VIIth Corps on exercises, and if there is a war.
You need to know which bridges can hold the biggest vehicles, and which will not. You can render a supply/logistics/reinvorcement route closed if the bridge goes down"

Which leads me to this: if you want to roll the heavy armor into Ukraine, which bridges can't or won't hold up to them?
(Beyond that General Mud appears to be another problem for maneuver units in Ukraine, or it will be when the spring thaw hits)
This line of thinking has informed some of why the US Marines have finally divested themselves of the Abrams tanks. In a lot of the places where they expect to operation, the bridges can't handle that big, magnificent beast.
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Old 18th Jan 2023, 18:07
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Serbia distancing itself from Russia….



"For us, Crimea is Ukraine, Donbas is Ukraine — and it’ll remain so", Serbia's president Vucic says.

​​​​​​​https://t.co/kzI963lHPA
That's more significant than it may seem for some. Serbia has had a close relationship with Russia for a couple of centuries. For them to effectively sever that long-standing tie and declare support for Ukraine is unexpected. Not least because it implies a possible break away from the Russian dominated Orthodox Church. Perhaps the growing affiliation with NATO over the past few years is at the heart of this, together with the strong popular opinion within Serbia that Russia should not have invaded Ukraine. The latter point may well be influenced by attitudes towards Kosovo, although Russia has long supported Serbia's position with regard to Kosovo.
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Old 18th Jan 2023, 18:19
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Which leads me to this: if you want to roll the heavy armor into Ukraine, which bridges can't or won't hold up to them?
(Beyond that General Mud appears to be another problem for maneuver units in Ukraine, or it will be when the spring thaw hits)
I am confident this is the reason UK is sending bridging vehicles with those 12-14 Challys. It was actually something that caught my attention in the Ben Wallace speech announcing the delivery. Recovery vehicle also mentioned.

Must add that Finland is very much infested with rivers and swamps, the land of thousand lakes as the saying goes, but the "heavy" Leos do their job just fine. Of course, if those are driven to the mud/swamp without any competence those will be stuck as well as any other MBT. Training plays a role there.
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Old 18th Jan 2023, 19:09
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BREAKING: The US is expected to announce one of its largest military aid packages for Ukraine in the coming days, according to two US officials - CNN

No further details on what weaponry will be included.

A personal feeling is that when the various aid packages are announced why on earth do they contain what is being given and sometimes when. Surely it is giving a heads up to the aggressor.
Why not leave it as X amount, expressed in USD, GBP or Euro and let the other side try and fathom out what may be coming there way - it is about time no weaponry details are included.
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Old 18th Jan 2023, 19:12
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Germany says nein to Leopard's unless the US sends Abram's. UK's challenger 2's are insufficient for them to change their mind.

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Old 18th Jan 2023, 19:40
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
Which leads me to this: if you want to roll the heavy armor into Ukraine, which bridges can't or won't hold up to them?
Heavy Armor will arrive in Ukraine by rail. The location of the fighting is at least 500 miles from the Polish border so it would have to be loaded on trains anyway.
Keep in mind that Poland had to upgrade any marginal bridges on main routes as a part of joining NATO.
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Old 18th Jan 2023, 20:25
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Originally Posted by Wokkafans
Germany says nein to Leopard's unless the US sends Abram's. UK's challenger 2's are insufficient for them to change their mind.
Fine. Someone push an Abrams cross the border to Ukraine and Leos are good to go. We know the U.S. has them in Europe.
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Old 18th Jan 2023, 22:32
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Germany sells its tanks to the whole of europe$$$$, abit like russian gas. Economic elbow pushing. Trump like even. somethings not right.
what they gona do if finland and spain just fly them in, like the javelins...close the airspace.
It does feel like those weeks before the 24th of feb when stuff could be seen coming, hence the NLAW & jav trigger was pulled.
The British leading the way again. only we dont have 1000s of tanks. so 14 it is.

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Old 18th Jan 2023, 23:30
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Can someone explain to me in simple terms why Germany is so reluctant to export armour and weapons to Ukraine?
Is it fear of Russian retaliation, historical precedents, domestic politics, or all three?
From an uninformed point of view it looks disgraceful...
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 00:31
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This is amusing:
Ukraine Reclassifies U.S. Tanks as "Recreational Vehicles" to Skirt Restrictions (motortrend.com)

Ukraine Reclassifies U.S. Tanks as "Recreational Vehicles" to Skirt Restrictions

The Ukraine Defense Ministry even prepared a parody commercial to convince officials to send them.

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Old 19th Jan 2023, 00:31
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Originally Posted by tartare
Can someone explain to me in simple terms why Germany is so reluctant to export armour and weapons to Ukraine?
Is it fear of Russian retaliation, historical precedents, domestic politics, or all three?
From an uninformed point of view it looks disgraceful...
The question is: Why is Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany, reluctant to export armor (or to allow German made armor to be sent to Ukraine)?

I believe it is because many Germans want to get the US and US influence out of Europe, and want closer bonds with Russia, and Scholz is one of those Germans.
But that is only my mostly uninformed opinion.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 03:01
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Originally Posted by Sfojimbo
The question is: Why is Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany, reluctant to export armor (or to allow German made armor to be sent to Ukraine)?

I believe it is because many Germans want to get the US and US influence out of Europe, and want closer bonds with Russia, and Scholz is one of those Germans.
But that is only my mostly uninformed opinion.
More uninformed opinion warning. I do not think it is to remove the US influence, so much, (unless you are Russian at heart) but rather the experience of having their country ripped in two at the end of WW2.

If you were faced with a) Russia on your doorstep as an enemy or b) Russia as a friend, (or benign/neutral entity), which would you choose? You do not have to love the Russians, but you might want to avoid triggering off what happened last time around. Russia feels naked and defenceless against Europe, true, but by the same token Germany is open to the same vulnerability, much closer and more immediate than somewhere like France or the UK.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 03:05
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From the New York Times today:
For years, the United States has insisted that Crimea is still part of Ukraine. Yet the Biden administration has held to a hard line since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, refusing to provide Kyiv with the weapons it needs to target the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia has been using as a base for launching devastating strikes.

Now that line is starting to soften.

After months of discussions with Ukrainian officials, the Biden administration is finally starting to concede that Kyiv may need the power to strike the Russian sanctuary, even if such a move increases the risk of escalation, according to several U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive debate. Crimea, between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, is home to tens of thousands of dug-in Russian troops and numerous Russian military bases.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 05:10
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Sweden chips in significantly, the Archers are being sent to Ukraine. If one is not acquaintant with the fastest self propelled howitzer yet, see the video underneath, very nice combination of mobility and firepower, and if required the fire rate is down to 7,5sec per round and its gone before first round hits the target. These go along very nicely with Leos





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Old 19th Jan 2023, 05:13
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Can someone explain to me in simple terms why Germany is so reluctant to export armour and weapons to Ukraine?
Is it fear of Russian retaliation, historical precedents, domestic politics, or all three?
From an uninformed point of view it looks disgraceful...
Germany has lost a war and surrendered unconditional. Arms and arms exports are strictly regulated and limited by law and need highest level permits. This was implemented by the Allies after the war.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 05:54
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Originally Posted by tartare
Can someone explain to me in simple terms why Germany is so reluctant to export armour and weapons to Ukraine?
Is it fear of Russian retaliation, historical precedents, domestic politics, or all three?
From an uninformed point of view it looks disgraceful...
I think it is more along the lines of this article from france24. I think the SPD still has strings that go back to Schroeder and the oil and gas companies of Russia.

From FRANCE24
More than 50 years after Brandt launched his “Ostpolitik” initiative, it’s now being used as an excuse for what Germans call a “Putinversteher” – which literally translates as “Putin understander”. The term is a pejorative reference to politicians, who insist the Russian leader’s expansionist interests are justified, as well as anti-American pundits pushing back against Washington’s calls for Germany’s energy security.

“There are dense networks of money, influence and politics between the SPD and Russia. They hang out in the board rooms of energy companies, trying to build solidarity with Russia while just raking in the money,” explained Nick Spicer, FRANCE 24’s Berlin correspondent. “The question is whether Scholz is going to call out his former SPD colleague.”

Perhaps Scholz needs the support of these networks to stay in power?
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 06:10
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Originally Posted by anxiao
I think it is more along the lines of this article from france24. I think the SPD still has strings that go back to Schroeder and the oil and gas companies of Russia.

From FRANCE24
More than 50 years after Brandt launched his “Ostpolitik” initiative, it’s now being used as an excuse for what Germans call a “Putinversteher” – which literally translates as “Putin understander”. The term is a pejorative reference to politicians, who insist the Russian leader’s expansionist interests are justified, as well as anti-American pundits pushing back against Washington’s calls for Germany’s energy security.

“There are dense networks of money, influence and politics between the SPD and Russia. They hang out in the board rooms of energy companies, trying to build solidarity with Russia while just raking in the money,” explained Nick Spicer, FRANCE 24’s Berlin correspondent. “The question is whether Scholz is going to call out his former SPD colleague.”

Perhaps Scholz needs the support of these networks to stay in power?
Putinversteher!
I doubt anybody is ever going to come up with a more accurate and succinct explanation for tartare's question than this single word.
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Old 19th Jan 2023, 06:19
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Not very likely as he cut the russian gas supplies already and moved elsewhere. Pretty bizarre mix of assumptions and ressentiments.
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