Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/warinthefuture/s...t35p3abXzuRJXQ

This is a grim, but interesting read from @BrunoTertrais on near term future scenarios for Russia as a result of their invasion of #Ukraine. The Fall of Russia

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en...is/fall-russia

[Lonewolf_50]

This article is military, though it's not so much aviation.
https://www.economist.com/zaluzhny-transcript
An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces

Originally Posted by an excerpt near the end

I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 ifvs, 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd.
But I can’t do it with two brigades.
I get what I get, but it is less than what I need.
TE: What do you make of Russia’s mobilisation?
VZ: Russian mobilisation has worked. It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war.
I’ve studied the history of the two Chechen wars—it was the same.
They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us.
We estimate that they have a reserve of 1.2m-1.5m people… The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.

[The Helpful Stacker]

Originally Posted by Wokkafans

Russian soldier POV combat (Possibly PMC Wagner)

What's going on with the ammunition sparking - damp, well out of date, dirty weapon?


https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

Most likely dirty weapons.

It's not occuring from all their weapons, which you'd expect if it was an ammunition issue (old ammunition/slower burning powder).

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1...t35p3abXzuRJXQ

BREAKING: The US is considering expanding its support for the war in Ukraine, as Kyiv worries that Russia could make a new push to take the capital as soon as January, sources say - Politico

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/1...raine-00074153

[DIBO]

Originally Posted by Wokkafans

Russian soldier POV combat (Possibly PMC Wagner)
What's going on with the ammunition sparking - damp, well out of date, dirty weapon?
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

Well, I'm a bit more worried about what's going on with the RU's opponent running straight in the RU's line of fire...that's not going to end well....

[Wokkafans]

Potential assassination attempt on the Head of the Polish Police who recently visited Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...r9624_0zflL3cg

Twitter

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

This article is military, though it's not so much aviation.
https://www.economist.com/zaluzhny-transcript
An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces

Thats the problem, it’s quantity, a lesson the Germans learnt, they might have had the best tanks in the Panther and Tiger but sheer numbers blunted them, the same with troops. That and a long supply line, you would think the bridges and road rail would be a primary urgency, without the ability to resupply the Russians with fuel and ammo the tanks are just static pillboxes, and the men starving.

[NutLoose]

Looks like Belarus may join in.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...Cw5YH8ocAsAAAA

Twitter

[FlightDetent]

Originally Posted by Wokkafans

Potential assassination attempt on the Head of the Polish Police who recently visited Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...r9624_0zflL3cg

Hell no. Gifted from UKR, having a show of it at the office. Accidental discharge. Burst through the toilet door and collapse the floor on the other side.

[MJ89]

kiev attack 0.2

Twitter

Putin likes his dates, was the invasion of afghan not on Christmas eve in the western world,
would be interesting to see if the poles will stand idilly by if this northward push from belerus again if the attack comes. seem a new kursk.
WITH the conclusion being kiev would hold. the news of this and time frame make sharpish plans are in play i would imagine.

[FUMR]

Perhaps Russia is not as weak as has been portrayed. The way things are developing more recently I can only see the West having no choice but to become directly involved. I can't imagine that is what Putin wants but that is where we're headed.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Wokkafans

Thanks - what exactly did they gift to him?

Apparently

This is how the RGW-90 grenade launcher looks like, which, according to unofficial information, accidentally fired at the Police Headquarters. The ceiling was damaged and the Police Commander-in-Chief, Jarosław Szymczyk, lost his hearing for several hours and was transported to the hospital..

Our Polish Cmdt Lassard was given a RGW-90 RPG trainer (shoots inert missiles) by his UA colleagues and was toying with it in his office in PL and shoot it in the ceiling. Alcohol probably involved at all stages (gifting, transport, playing)

The funniest thing is that at first they wanted explanations from the Ukrainians, whether it was their fault that the commander did not think, and fired the gun in a closed room. The fact is that there are a number of omissions here. Why did the commander get a grenade launcher, how did he get transported across the border

[T28B]

I was hoping for one of those for Christmas myself.

[Usertim]

..... removed as per FUMR below

[FUMR]

We must have had quite a few explosions near where I live then. Had very similar scenes the past few days from local factories. I'm therefore doubtful that what we are seeing in that short clip is anything to do with the conflict.

[NutLoose]

Uk possibly looking at providing Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

https://twitter.com/search?q=storm%2...rc=typed_query

https://twitter.com/search?q=storm%2...rc=typed_query

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Uk possibly looking at providing Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
https://twitter.com/search?q=storm%2...rc=typed_query

It is worth noting that this is speculative.

The head of the British Ministry of Defense Ben Wallace did not rule out the possibility of supplying Ukraine with Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
However, the final decision has not yet been made and will be made behind closed doors - Times radio

From your linked twittterthread, a few posts down from the top.

[NutLoose]

Yes and I said possibly, the fact it is being talked about is interesting in itself, it would reach the bridge and Moscows power grid

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Yes and I said possibly, the fact it is being talked about is interesting in itself, it would reach the bridge and Moscows power grid

I think that a further proliferation of "lit cigarettes dropping into flammable things at various infrastructure sites" is a more likely path forward.
I have a suspicion (yes, this is speculation) that some of those 'accidents' have had help in getting the holes in the cheese to line up.

[FlightDetent]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

(yes, this is speculation) that some of those 'accidents' have had help in getting the holes in the cheese to line up.

On a spiritual note: A favourable coincidence, spell of good luck, is no proof of a higer power. A streak of those, on the other hand...

Are there any relevant data what is the 'natural background' frequency for shopping mall and warehouse fires in RUS (to be compared against what media recently report)?